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Wednesday, Sep 9th
Patriots 20.5
Hawks 24.0
Thursday, Sep 10th
49ers 22.75
Rams 25.75
Sunday, Sep 13th — Early
Browns 16.5
Jaguars 24.0
Bucs 23.5
Bengals 27.0
Ravens 26.5
Colts 23.0
Falcons 19.75
Steelers 22.75
Bills 23.5
Texans 22.0
Bears 23.5
Panthers 21.0
Jets 18.25
Titans 21.25
Saints 20.75
Lions 27.75
Sunday, Sep 13th — Late
Cards 17.0
Chargers 28.5
Dolphins 19.25
Raiders 22.25
WFT 20.5
Eagles 26.0
Packers 23.0
Vikings 21.5
Cowboys 25.5
Giants 23.0
Monday, Sep 14th
Broncos 20.0
Chiefs 22.5

Battle Royale 18.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 18!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

The goal of this article is to hit on some thoughts regarding the layout of the slate, present some overlooked players I’m interested in for the contest format, and update some trending stats of winning teams. Hopefully it makes you think about scrolling down a bit to look for the players that can help you build unique teams without sacrificing upside.

Looking at Week 18

The final week of the season is here! With that comes resting players, questionable motivations, an offseason on the horizon, incentives being chased, and guys wanting to end the season on an emotional high. Any playoff team that has incentive to rest their guys has me completely off the starters; so that means SF, LAR, BAL, KC, and CLE for sure, and teams like PHI and DET come with questions of their own if they start scoreboard watching. In terms of games in which both sides are playoff-motivated, 2 of the 3 are primetime games off the slate, leaving us with just ATL @ NOR. This doesn’t mean this is the only game with players “motivated,” just that it’s the only game in which both collective teams can actually gain from winning. With all that in mind, my starting point is to look at the players from the very motivated/incentivized teams before anybody else; so on this slate that means DAL, GB, SEA, TB, NOR, ATL, and JAC. This definitely does not mean to ignore guys like Justin Jefferson, but it’s just how I prefer to first observe this drafting slate in which cheap Week 18 DraftKings values are not quite serving the same purpose.

Playoff-incentivized QBs:

Dak Prescott @ WAS (QB2, 10.0 ADP):

  • Assuming the weather is clear, Dak is in a great spot here against a terrible defense with a chance to secure the 2 seed. Dak has 6 games of 24+ fantasy points this season, including 32 in the first WAS matchup (albeit at home in a dome), and WAS has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs.

Jordan Love vs CHI (QB4, 25.9 ADP): 

  • While CHI’s defense has certainly improved from the start of the year, some of it is also QB competition faced, as this defense has still allowed strong games to Joe Flacco and Kyler Murray in the last 3 weeks. Love has 8 games of 20+ fantasy points, and just 3 below 16 points all year. GB is in the playoffs with a win, giving Love the chance to do what Rodgers couldn’t last year, secure a playoff spot in the final game of the year. I actually prefer the spot for Fields on the other side of this game, as this game is very interesting in general, but so does the field as he’s taken 15 spots higher in drafts.

Geno Smith @ ARI (QB6, 34.3 ADP): 

  • While another case in which the opposing rushing QB is more appealing to draft, Smith himself gets a dome matchup against this weak Cardinals defense with a chance to keep playoff hopes alive. Given how Pete Carroll has always kept this offense held in check unless the game requires more passing, Smith should likely only be played in builds around this game, especially with how weak the Cardinals run defense has been. If ARI can push SEA to pass, Geno has proved capable of providing a winning score behind 300 yards and multiple TDs. 12 QBs have scored multiple TDs vs ARI this year.

Trevor Lawrence @ TEN (QB9, 35.2 ADP): 

  • Lawrence is still questionable to play with injuries, but a win here secures a home playoff game in round 1 and a loss would likely knock them out of the playoffs entirely. While Lawrence’s best score of the season came against TEN thanks to two rushing TDs, JAC moved the ball successfully on TEN all day that week, and may even get Christian Kirk back for Week 18. While not the best fantasy season from Lawrence, and not the best matchup against TEN, he was coming off a 4 week stretch of 26 points/game before running into the CLE and BAL defenses with injuries to his receivers and himself. He’s going completely undrafted right now but comes with surefire motivation and a high ceiling.

Most-Assured Volume at RB:

Travis Etienne (RB4, 17.7 ADP):

  • Not a great matchup, but a much easier matchup than the beginning of the season for TEN’s run defense. Etienne has been one of the highest volume backs all season, and with a chance to lock up the division, he has one of the most guaranteed workloads on the slate. Mostert and Singletary have eaten up this defense on the ground of late, and Etienne has 5 games of 20+ fantasy points this year.

Aaron Jones vs CHI (RB5, 20.4 ADP):

  • While not the best matchup on the ground, CHI has been weak through the air vs RBs, something Jones has excelled at throughout his career. Jones has seen 20+ touches in back to back games and GB is playing to secure a playoff spot. Jones opened the year up with 127 yards and 2 TDs in less than 3 quarters vs CHI, and is finally healthy again.

The other RBs who fit this are also all going super high, as the field has identified the workloads here, as Rachaad White @ CAR is going 1st round, James Conner vs SEA going 2nd round, and Breece Hall @ NE going 3rd round. I much prefer the first two to Hall against the NE defense, but anyone with big volume potential on this slate is in play at RB.

Late-Round Upside WRs:

Ja’Marr Chase vs CLE (WR11, 25.3 ADP):

  • While eliminated from the playoffs, Chase has missed a lot of time this year along with his QB, so this is a chance to go out strong against a team resting starters. Higgins is out, and Chase isn’t being drafted until the 5th round, which seems worth the risk given his 1st round upside. CLE is far from a good matchup, but Chase is an elite talent and CLE has no incentive to risk their best players’ health here.

Calvin Ridley @ TEN (WR12, 26.5 ADP):

  • JAC can lock up the division with a win, and Ridley gets a matchup he dominated earlier this year. Christian Kirk potentially returning may take some targets away, but should make life easier on the offense as a whole. Most of Ridley’s best games this year all came with Kirk in the lineup anyway, including the TEN game. TEN isn’t a bad defense, but their weakness is to receivers, and like Chase, Ridley isn’t even drafted until the 5th round behind guys like Puka Nacua who may not even play much.

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

  • 38 of the 53 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
  • 23 of the 53 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
  • 49 of the 53 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

  • 31 of 53 had a QB paired with just one teammate
    • WR (22), TE (5), RB (3)
  • 8 of 53 had a QB stacked with two teammates
    • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (2)
  • 5 of those 39 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
  • 52 of 53 had at least one game correlation
  • 15 of 53 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

  • 174 of 265 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
  • 90 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!