Battle Royale 7.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 7!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

Looking at Week 7

Flipping from last week, Week 7 feels barren at WR and RB in comparison to Week 6. While more elite QB names are in the pool this week, many of the QB spots do feel similar to last week in lacking obvious smash spots.

QB:

Notable QBs missing from the slate: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson

Top 6 QBs by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford

Notes:

• Geno Smith vs ARI: This is a bet on game environment popping (only KC is implied for more points than SEA). We know Carroll will be content to run the ball all over this weak ARI run defense but in the event that Dobbs (or maybe Kyler Murray?) is able to keep up on the other side (which ARI has shown evidence of doing this year), Geno could see an uptick in attempts in a beatable matchup. Should be stacked with at least 1 of his 4 main skill players, and an ARI runback on the other side probably tells the right story of why Geno is hitting.
• Daniel Jones vs WAS: Jones’s game uncertainty is holding back this game total. This has been an exploitable defense all year, and Jones has one of the highest ceilings on the slate (assuming he’s healthy enough to play). In the last 5 games vs WAS, Jones has rushed for 74, 4, 95, 71, and 35 yards and he has topped 30 pass attempts in 7 of 8 career matchups. He’s struggled against a string of tough defenses, but now has Saquon back, and the matchup sets up well for his bigger targets (Waller, Slayton, Hyatt).
• Mathew Stafford vs PIT: PIT doesn’t have a bad defense by any stretch, but they are exploitable in the secondary, and Stafford happens to have some receivers who can take full advantage. He still hasn’t had TD variance go his way yet, but he’s operating at an elite level. Some concern with the PIT pass rush, but Kupp’s ability to get open quickly will help as it did with the PHI pass rush. The LAR RB carnage should force an uptick in Rams passing as well. Double stacking I’m normally against this contest, but given the nature of the slate, a Stafford double stack is viable and unique.
• Jordan Love @ DEN: I like him paired with any of Watson, Jones, and Musgrave against a struggling Denver defense. Love-Watson makes the most sense, but Love-Jones will be more unique and could potentially capture more of the GB points.
• Deshaun Watson @ IND: He has scored 21 fantasy points in 2 of 3 games, faces a below-average pass defense, pairs well with Amari Cooper, and will be very low-owned due to uncertainty of playing all week (will rise if positive news continues to come out).
• Pair Mahomes with Kelce whenever you have the rare chance, gamestack Lamar, pair Allen with Gabe Davis, pair Herbert with Ekeler.

RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, De’Andre Swift, Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce

Notes:

• Kenneth Walker vs ARI: Walker is going as the RB2 this week, usually at the end of the first round of drafts. Will most frequently get drafted with the guys right in front and behind him, so find ways to get unique with him. Pair with Geno, Adams over Jacobs, Pacheco over Mahomes, Gibbs/LaPorta over St. Brown.
• Aaron Jones @ DEN: Still carries injury uncertainty, but gets an absolute smash spot at discounted ADP.
• Isaiah Pacheco vs LAC: Can be one way to leverage Mahomes, but with his growing pass game role, can even be paired with Mahomes as a way to correlate with Chargers weak RB pass defense and also get leverage on Kelce.
• Brian Robinson @ NYG: RBs have been feasting on the Giants to begin the year, while Robinson’s own stock has fallen after facing a tough stretch of run defenses. Still dominating touches in this backfield, and has multi-TD upside.
• Jaylen Warren @ LAR: Rams have been beatable on the ground, Warren has been eating into Najee’s touches as the more explosive player, and he receives work through the air. Would prefer to only use him in game stacks.
• Ekeler (@KC) and Jacobs (@CHI) are obviously good plays given the amount of volume each sees. While each certainly has a high ceiling, finding a way to get both on your roster locks your team into the two highest floors at the position on the slate (O’Connell targeted Jacobs 11 times in his one start).

WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ceedee Lamb, Deandre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson

WR depth is absolutely depleted this week! Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are normal names to appear near the top of drafts, but the slate is without a truckload of the frequently drafted WRs. This is a perfect week to “scroll down” in drafts because there are so few strong plays you are passing up at higher ADPs. There is also less variance in RB projections than WRs, making it easier to find overlooked WRs than RBs, especially when the RB position is weak in its depth this week.

Notes:

• Davante Adams @ CHI: Demanding targets to the media (squeaky wheel), received 13 targets in O’Connell’s only start despite leaving the game briefly, and isn’t even being drafted in the 1st round on a slate barren of WRs with his same ceiling.
• Amari Cooper @ IND: May get Watson back, but still put up 100 yards with Walker against SF. IND has been very generous to WR1s. Dome game. Pairing with Watson leverages the injury uncertainty since he’d likely be going earlier in drafts this week otherwise.
• Cooper Kupp vs PIT: There should be no other thought than Kupp or Kelce at the 1.01 this week, and given the WR depth, I’m probably leaning Kupp every time I have the chance.
• Puka Nacua vs PIT: Still plenty of volume to excel on with Kupp back. Dropped TD last week probably holding his ADP down this week. Pairing with Kelce is a really smart way to leverage the Kelce/Kupp spot.
• Rashee Rice vs LAC: LAC has been bad against WR1s, and although Kelce is basically KC’s WR1, Rice has been the most consistent of KC’s ragtag group of wide receivers. Pairing with Mahomes helps leverage Kelce by getting his points through Mahomes, while any points Rice scores are points not going to Kelce.
• SEA WRs vs ARI: With Kenneth Walker going in the first round, all of the receivers provide some leverage on him (or can be stacked if going all in on the game environment). Metcalf sets up to take advantage of ARI’s high percentage allowance of deep completions, and Smith-Njigba is finally running all the routes and can take advantage of ARI’s style of defense. Metcalf hasn’t practiced (but he’s also been dealing with injury for weeks), and Lockett has been limited with a hammy; that has been one thing suppressing their ADPs.
• Marquise Brown @ SEA: Top target-getter for ARI playing a SEA defense that has surprisingly been struggling a bit vs WRs.
• Christian Watson @ DEN: Explosive player playing a historically bad defense through 6 weeks.
• Zay Flowers vs DET: Lions have been attackable through secondary and dealing with CB injuries. Kelce-Flowers is a way to gain leverage on Mark Andrews and further bet on Kelce as the top-scoring TE.
• Diontae Johnson @ LAR: Johnson has been an elite target-getter throughout his career whenever he’s remained healthy.

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson

Notes:

• Travis Kelce vs LAC: Only Kupp goes before Kelce for me this week. Smash matchup, overall lower scoring slate so the kind of score Kelce can put up at TE is really valuable. Find ways to make him unique/create leverage: Pair with Mahomes whenever possible, Flowers and Saquon can create some leverage on Andrews/Waller and pair with Pacheco and a Charger.
• Mark Andrews vs DET: Still getting really good usage, sees a matchup that leans toward the air, and can always outpace the rest of the TE position on any given week.
• Darren Waller vs WAS: WAS has struggled against big-bodied targets, and Waller fits the mold as NYG’s de facto WR1. Several WAS players to pair with in bets on this game environment, and can also find ways to leverage Kelce and Andrews too given how late Waller goes.
• Kyle Pitts @ TB: Finally seeing better usage, the matchup leans toward the air
• Michael Mayer @ CHI: He has been worked into the game plan, but gets backup QB so more risky. Still, some leverage off the other 3 weapons drafted
• Logan Thomas @ NYG: Disappeared last week, but good matchup and has other strong games already this year in this offense
• Luke Musgrave @ DEN: Already shown flashes as a rookie, now gets an extremely exploitable defense

Underowned Combos:

• Geno Smith + Tyler Lockett + Marquise Brown
• Geno Smith + Kenneth Walker/Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Josh Dobbs + Marquise Brown + Kenneth Walker
• Daniel Jones + Darren Waller + Brian Robinson
• Daniel Jones + Saquon Barkley + Terry McLaurin/Logan Thomas
• Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Isiah Pacheco
• Jordan Love + Aaron Jones + Christian Watson
• Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Puka Nacua + Jaylen Warren
• Desmond Ridder + Kyle Pitts/Drake London + Chris Godwin

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 29 of the 42 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 19 of the 42 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 38 of the 42 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 23 of 42 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (17), TE (4), RB (2)
• 7 of 42 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 5 of those 30 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 41 of 42 had at least one game correlation
• 13 of 42 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 142 of 210 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• The other 68 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!