Willing To Lose 16.23

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

One of the best experiences I’ve had this season is being given the opportunity to write about both the Main Slates and Showdowns here on OWS. Getting in the weekly rhythm here since August has allowed my perspective to change dramatically on just how similar and different a one game or multi-game slate can be. Breaking down just one game allows for more time and effort to see clearly what the expected and unexpected outcomes could be. This was how the Off Script series spawned. We can’t predict NFL games, but we can predict DFS player behavior. The challenge ahead of us in trying to win a tournament involves scoring more points than the competition, thus capitalizing on what we know is a piece of leverage we have to consider each week. Taking a peek at each game and letting the off script outcomes show themselves to us has been a blast.

So it got me thinking . . . whereas one game slates are simpler to break down for the expected and unexpected outcomes, what if we take advantage of the smallest main slate of the season so far (nine games) and put in the effort to identify the off script scenarios. This feels like a worthy exercise as we always need to find the right game environments to simplify how we build first-place lineups and increase our odds of a high score with advanced correlation. In short, this week I wanted to take advantage of the training at my disposal. We’ll take a quick look at combining the power and tenets of Willing to Lose, with the fundamentals of Off Script, to see if that gives us an edge on the competition. Scripts vs. off scripts to give us the risky yet profitable scenarios that are forming in Week 16 . . . 

IND @ ATL

• Script: Colts offense puts up points, Falcons run the ball well and win a close one.
• Off Script: These two teams put on an offensive clinic. Bijan and Taylor are the catalysts in a high-scoring game with Falcons having more success through the air than on the ground.

GB @ CAR

• Script: Green Bay dominates, leaning on the success of the run game.
• Off Script: Green Bay wins but gets there through Love and his pass catchers “on the way up.”

CLE @ HOU

• Script: Browns throw the ball a ton, and rely on great defense to win.
• Off Script: Houston’s defense takes over, forcing turnovers and short fields leading to an upset victory.

DET @ MIN

• Script: Lions continue to roll offensively and smother Mullens and Vikes.
• Off Script: Vikings offense finds success with a full arsenal of offensive playmakers. Blitz-happy defense gets to road Goff.

WAS @ NYJ

• Script: Washington covers the spread, and has success on the ground.
• Off Script: Jets cover as a home favorite (?), and beat the Commanders defense like every other team has done.

SEA @ TEN

• Script: Uncertain QB situation for Titans along with Geno back leads to an easy Seahawks win.
• Off Script: Titans can move the ball well, Seahawks come out sluggish on a short week and early start time, and don’t tackle Henry well enough.

JAC @ TB

• Script: Jags win through the air like most teams against TB, and similarly Bucs have success through Baker, Evans, Godwin, and White. The over should be a popular bet here.
• Off Script: Defensive dominance on both sides, leading to a low scoring slugfest between Beathard and Mayfield.

AZ @ CHI

• Script: Bears defense continues to be on the rise, and the Cardinals look like they are ready for the season to end.
• Off Script: Kyler and Fields show up as dynamos, leading to a shootout.

DAL @ MIA

• Script: Game of the week. Explosive players make explosive plays in a tight game.
• Off Script: Both teams decide to commit to the run leading to RBs on both sides succeeding while QBs and receivers on both sides underwhelm due to the lower volume of plays.

These script scenarios are just what I am seeing and anticipating, based on Vegas spreads and over/unders, where the bet percentages are sitting, and some gut feels. You will likely assess these games in a different way. But you can see how a new lens on each game would show an unexpected outcome in its range of possibilities, thus building our menu to choose from this week in large-field play. Here are some of my favorites.

Running Backs in Miami