Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
“Some guy is going to win a million dollars on Sunday. I could be that mistake!”
For anyone who knows me, this was my weekly statement, basically every NFL Sunday from 2013 to 2021 or so. The quote was obviously inspired by the movie, Superbad, for all the movie buffs out there. But the truth is, all it takes is one time. Overall, people choose to waste their money on silly things, including low probability outcomes like the lottery. Yet, every day, every week, of every year, people pour their money into the thrill of winning life-changing amounts.
The non-Attorney Generals out there know that winning DFS tournaments requires more than just a great deal of luck. There is a sizable amount of strategy and skill, along with the stomach to embrace risk and do so in a confident way. But luck is still present, no matter where we turn, and that’s a good thing. It’s Week 15, and as I was sitting thinking about what to write this week, it’s the element of embracing luck. We all have strategies and skill in building our lineups on every slate, but we need variance (and luck) to swing our way as well. We need to outsmart our opponents but also keep our lineups relevant to make it to the top of the leaderboards.
If you haven’t won by Week 15, don’t worry about it. It’s easy to question your strategy and move away from what you’ve historically done well. But think about how you’ll feel when you played the guy last week who didn’t perform and this week tops the slate in points? Think about how you’ll feel when the defense you targeted to stack against allows 35 points this week after holding last week’s opponent under 20. Constantly altering strategy is called flailing. We don’t like flailing here! We talk a whole bunch about sticking to the process. The 76ers even went so far as to brand the team for multiple seasons under “Trust the Process.” If they can do it for a couple of real NBA seasons, you can do it for a few short NFL weeks.
Try to get better each week, don’t try to redefine your strategy. Think about how when luck didn’t swing your way over the last few weeks, that simply means it’s coming soon. Best Ball playoffs are upon us, and pool advancements require significant luck as none of us have touched those rosters since more than four months ago, but nonetheless, we will watch and track. In the Best Ball streets, we’re forced to embrace the variance and go with it. We have no other choice. Kickoff the games on Sunday and let’s see what happens. DFS is the same, build like you always do and see what happens.
