Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Instincts. We can’t fight them. Like you, I enjoy following the NFL. There is so much content to consume, so many storylines that emerge and latch onto, and countless trends to watch over the course of a few weeks or an entire season. Right around this time, (Week 12 or so and Thanksgiving) is where the predictability rises. We are well into the season, so we know what these teams are and what they want to be. We can see where underperformance keeps showing up and justify why it may not go the other way at any point during the remainder of the games. Similarly, we can see which coaches play a certain way and which players have earned their trust. We are also entering the phase of the NFL season where the games matter more. Not that any specific game doesn’t matter on a team’s schedule, but as we talked about in the Angles Email earlier in the week, if teams are going to make moves (Chiefs, Lions, Ravens), it has to start now. What does this all have to do with instincts, you ask?
As the weeks and slates flip, it becomes harder and harder to fight our instincts on how to build rosters. By now, hopefully, you’ve seen some “up” weeks of profitability, and surely you’ve experienced “down” weeks as well. Our feel for roster building at this point is second nature. So when those slates flip by, like it did from Week 11 to Week 12, I couldn’t fight my first instincts of the week, which will inform some of this article.
