XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 begins with the Saints visiting the Cardinals for a 44-point total game with Arizona favored by 2.5. Both teams have some complicated personnel situations due to injuries and a suspension coming to an end so there’s a lot of complexity to figure out in this one, but it should be fun. Let’s dig in.

Arizona

On the Arizona side, neither James Conner nor Darrel Williams practiced Tuesday. Both are listed as questionable but seem to lean more toward the doubtful side of things, which should leave the backfield for Eno Benjamin once again. Last week in a similar spot, Eno played 87% of the snaps to 13% for backup rookie Keaontay Ingram and 18 running back opportunities against three for Ingram. Seeing around 85% of snaps and opportunities is good! The results weren’t there, which keeps Eno’s price down to $8,200, but that is an absolute elite role and one that I want to attack. Ingram can be viewed as an MME punt but would need a fluke touchdown or an injury to Eno to have a chance at anything meaningful. Finally, Kyler Murray rushed 10 times in Week 5 after averaging just shy of six rush attempts per game prior, and I expect that was at least somewhat driven by the lack of depth in the backfield. I would view Conner and Williams missing again as a boost to Kyler’s rushing equity. The matchup here is neutral as the Saints rank pretty middle of the pack in overall defensive DVOA as well as against the pass and the run, which makes me very much like the Arizona running game. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Cardinals lost Marquise Brown to injury but got DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension and also traded for Robbie Anderson. We can expect to see a lot of Rondale Moore and A.J. Green at wide receiver, and perhaps some of Greg Dortch and/or Javon Wims depending on how much Anderson is ready to play after just one short week of practice. Hopkins is a tough one for me. When we look back at last season, he’s priced as an elite wideout at $10.2k, but last year in a similar role before Brown was on the team, he only saw double-digit targets in one game and averaged just 4.2 catches per game. He never hit the 100- yard bonus on DK but he did score a whopping eight touchdowns in just 10 games. I think it’s safe to expect him to lead the Cardinals in targets, and the matchup is positive with no Marshon Lattimore, but with a fairly muted yardage expectation it’s hard to justify paying a premium price when he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown in order to pay off. The red zone role is awesome and I assume it will be again this year as well (though Zach Ertz’s arrival dampens it a bit) so I don’t think I would fully avoid him, but he’s a guy I personally want to be underweight on. A.J. Green is dust and really only in consideration as a punt play in MME pools at this point in his career with 56 receiving yards on the season (yes, you read that correctly, 11 per game). Rondale Moore, at just $5,800, is probably the best receiver play on the Cardinals as he’s seen 5, 8, and 10 targets in his three games since coming back from a preseason injury; they’re fairly short-area targets but the floor is high here and he has elite ability with the ball in his hands. Anderson is a big wildcard. Arizona coaching staff has said he will be “very limited” if he plays but he can also hit on a single play. If he’s in, he’s someone I want in my MME player pool but would not be anything like all-in on, while if he’s out, that likely creates an expanded role for either Dortch or Wims, who would enter the tourney consideration pile (Dortch with a higher floor, Wims more volatile but potentially higher ceiling, and we would need to watch beat reporters to see if we could get any clarity on who would be playing more). At tight end, the Cardinals will run out Zach Ertz in a near-100% of the snaps role, backed up by Trey McBride. Ertz’s per-catch upside is pretty modest at this point in his career but he’s seen 10+ targets in a whopping four of six games this season, giving him a high floor and an accessible ceiling if he finds the end zone. Ertz, along with Moore, are my two favorite Cardinals pass-catcher plays. McBride has three catches on the season (though they all came in one game) and belongs only in MME pools.

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing performances in Week 6.
• This is a key AFC North matchup for a division that is still wide open, with all four teams currently within one game of each other.
• Cleveland’s defense is clearly the worst unit in this game, which should play a big factor in determining the outcome and game flow.
• A tough recent stretch for the Ravens offense should be cured in this soft matchup at home.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns blew some great chances early in this season to win games, and unfortunately for them, the NFL is an unforgiving league that will not feel sorry for you. They very easily could have been 5-0 through five weeks rather than 2-3, but they blew games and now face a very difficult stretch of five games against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Bucs before Deshaun Watson returns from suspension. Last week’s demolition at the hands of the Patriots had to be disheartening for Browns fans and those within the organization, with the blown chances in the past and the now difficult task on the road ahead.

The Browns offense has been pretty much what we’ve expected, boasting the 5th most run-heavy play calling in the NFL. Their tempo has been right around the league average and their passing offense has actually performed pretty well over the course of the season from an efficiency standpoint, with a lack of volume being the biggest issue. The Browns will undoubtedly lean heavily on their running game and the 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to try to control the game and move the ball. The issue they will have with that approach is that the Ravens will almost certainly be selling out to stop the run and daring the Browns to pass. Also, the Browns are likely to be without All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller for this game, a significant blow to their offensive line and running game. Not only is Teller very good at what he does, but his ability to do a variety of things and get to the second level in their blocking scheme opens up a lot of the chunk plays we often see from the Browns on the ground.

The Browns may need to take some early shots downfield to try to open things up against the Ravens, especially with their own issues on the line possibly sapping them of some of their usual efficiency. In general, however, the Browns approach in this game is always going to come back to their running game and concepts off of that: play action, counters, and screens which allow Jacoby Brissett to make plays without having to actually “make the plays.” 

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Bucs are all in good spots against an overmatched opponent that has given up.
• Mike Evans has “squeaky wheel” appeal after catching all four of his targets last week in a loss.
• Cade Otton has been an every down player without Cameron Brate.
• DJ Moore is mispriced for his role/talent, but it’s difficult to overcome horrific QB play.
• If you’re brave, the Panthers D is free.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The 3-3 Bucs limp into Week 7 coming off a bad loss as heavy favorites against the rebuilding Steelers. The Bucs have dropped three of their last four games, and Tom Brady must be thinking, “I gave up Mai Tais and Yahtzee for this?” Fortunately for Brady, the divisions he has played in his entire career are as bad as his marriage, and the Bucs still sit atop the NFC South as an astounding -600 favorite to win the division, despite being technically tied (the Bucs do hold the tiebreaker) with the Falcons at 3-3. Being 3-3 in the NFC South is like getting divorced when you’re the world’s most desirable man, you’re still winning.

What looks more worrisome for Brady’s Bucs is the dysfunction surrounding this team. Todd Bowles said that players have to stop living in the past, Brady was caught on camera screaming at his O-line like they were Giselle asking him to watch the kids, and a frustrated Mike Evans basically said, “throw me the damn ball, Dad!” after the game. This is all set against the backdrop of an aging (possibly finally declining) quarterback who prioritized going to a wedding over practice.  The locker room environment impacting the game is typically filed under “things Rex Ryan believes,” but this Bucs team is more distracted than Robert Kraft after hiring a new secretary. 

Despite the drama, nothing has changed (except his marital status) since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa. The Bucs want to attack with a pass heavy offense that is designed to let Brady win them games. Brady has thrown 42/52/52/40 times in the past four weeks and it’s likely we see another 40-pass attempt game in an “angry Brady gets right” spot against a weak opponent. The Bucs play fast (1^st in overall pace) and barely slow down in any situation, only falling outside of the top five in pace when playing with a touchdown lead (11^th in pace when ahead). The Bucs are what they’ve been since Brady arrived, an aggressive throwing team that is going to play fast and try to put up points. 

The Panthers have been bad against the run (19^th in DVOA) and smoked through the air (25^th in DVOA). The Panthers defensive backs have been poor outside of Jaycee Horn (11th-ranked corner per PFF), and Horn missed last week with a rib injury. The Bucs should be able to attack this secondary even if Horn plays, but if he sits, this unit is one of the weakest in the NFL. There is nothing in this matchup that will tilt the Bucs away from their preferred approach, and the backdrop of this game suggests that the Bucs will let Brady air it out to try and put the focus on his play, rather than his personal life.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Atlanta has a very clear yet maddening identity – run the football from heavy sets and see what happens.
• It seems borderline silly to say, but this contest looks like a battle of the defensive coordinators between Lou Anarumo and Dean Pees.
• Wide range of potential outcomes as far as game environment and flow go, with volume unlikely to fully condense on either side.
• About as unexciting a game can be expected for a game with a total of 47.5 points.
• Basically, can Ja’Marr Chase break the game open? If not, muted upside.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

One look at the Falcons team metrics paints an immediate picture of how they are trying to win games this season. Their slow pace of play (29^th-ranked first half pace of play and 25^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play), heavy rush rates (second most rush plays per game at 33.7 and second lowest pass rate over expectation), and wildly high heavy personnel rates (21- and 12-personnel) tell us most of what we need to know . . . Arthur Smith wants to run the damn ball. For better or for worse, it seems to be working out from a real-world football perspective to the maddening dissatisfaction of fantasy managers. Atlanta currently finds themselves tied atop the NFC South with the Buccaneers with a record of 3-3 and a positive 10-point scoring differential through six weeks. With that, however, electric tight end Kyle Pitts hasn’t played over a 67% snap rate since Week 2 and standout rookie wide receiver Drake London hasn’t played over a 67% snap rate since Week 4, and that’s with starting running back Cordarrelle Patterson on IR and out of the lineup over the past two weeks. Their 3-4 “Jack” base defense doesn’t stand out on paper other than being a low blitz rate, Dean Pees-led unit that plays man coverage at an above-average rate. Basically, the identity of this team is to do the little things right on the football field to not beat themselves.

The absence of Cordarrelle Patterson has left this backfield in a clear 1A/2A/2B timeshare with heavy fullback utilization, led by rookie running back Tyler Allgeier and his 4.4 yards per carry, two-down grinder profile. Avery Williams, a former walk-on cornerback at Boise State turned NFL running back, and Caleb Huntley, a 5-10, 229 pound between the tackles bruiser, mixes in behind Allgeier for a team that is going to continue running the football if it is working. The matchup on the ground yields a well above average 4.66 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bengals defense largely holding opposing backfields in check to the tune of a 4.25 yards per running back carry allowed and only 18.6 fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Most notably, “Falcons running backs” have exactly one game all season with more than 17 running back opportunities, which came through starter Cordarrelle Patterson way back in Week 1. Since then, they have spread the ball enough to remove all fantasy consideration for all members. Finally, the Falcons have fed their backfield only 16 targets all season, which ranks last in the NFL.

Things don’t get any rosier for the pass game, at least not from a fantasy perspective. Rookie wide receiver Drake London carries elite (like, 37.1% targets per route run and 33.1% team target market share elite, which rank first and second in the NFL, respectively) underlying metrics through the first six games of his NFL career but his offense attempts only 22.8 pass attempts per game, which ranks 31^st in the league ahead of only the Bears. Dynamic tight end Kyle Pitts has just 25 targets through five healthy games. Yeah, the weekly floor does not exist here. Olamide Zaccheaus is technically the starting wide receiver opposite London but he has seen just 18 total targets through six games. Khadarel Hodge, Bryan Edwards, and Damiere Byrd fight for the scraps behind London and Zaccheaus, with blocking tight end Parker Hasse seeing the field more than Kyle Pitts. Woof.

How cincinatti Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Lots of moving pieces on the Detroit injury report, with Amon-Ra St. Brown getting in his first full practice since injuring his ankle in Week 3, D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds listed as DNP on Wednesday, and D’Andre Swift returning as a limited participant for the first time since suffering an ankle injury in Week 3.
• Dallas appears set to get quarterback Dak Prescott back from injury this week.
• The Lions’ overall 58.26% pass rate and below average pass rate over expectation in three of five games reminds us of how they would like to win – they just have largely been unable to do so this season due to the routine negative game scripts they have found themselves in.
• Dallas should be afforded the opportunity to get a run game going that has largely struggled this season, particularly considering how good Ezekiel Elliott looked in Week 6, the likely positive game script, and the elite matchup.

How DETROIT Will Try To Win ::

It is clear that the Lions would like to return to smashmouth football behind a top five offensive line, but a defense playing man coverage at the highest rate in the league has not afforded them much opportunity to continue that game plan deep into games. As such, it’s likely we see them start the game this week attempting to control things on the ground, but a Dallas defense holding opponents to 4.35 yards per carry and the fourth lowest drive success rate against is likely to turn the Lions to the air sooner rather than later. When that happens, look out, friends. The Cowboys have a relentless pass rush and Jared Goff is back to being #notgood when under pressure, which is likely to lead to sacks and the potential for turnovers, placing the Lions deeper into negative game script. Overall, expect the Lions to be forced into a linear increase in aerial aggression as the game progresses.

The Lions are expecting D’Andre Swift back from an extended absence due to ankle and shoulder injuries. Coming off their bye, there is no reason to expect a decrease to his workload, assuming he returns to a full practice at some point this week. Swift has played only two fully healthy games this season, seeing 18 and 10 running back opportunities in those contests. Jamaal Williams saw 13 running back opportunities in those same two games and will be involved regardless, with the ultimate split in opportunities likely coming down to Swift’s level of health. The pure rushing matchup yields a robust 4.685 net-adjusted line yards metric behind the league’s third-ranked run-blocking offensive line. Craig Reynolds is on hand to handle any change of pace work dependent on the health of D’Andre Swift.

It is likelier than not that the Lions are forced into increased aerial aggression as the game progresses. Amon-Ra St. Brown returned to a full practice on Wednesday, signaling a return to full health coming out of the bye. St. Brown averaged 11 targets per game over the first three weeks of the season before missing Week 4 and playing on an injured ankle in Week 5. Josh Reynolds and D.J. Chark failed to practice on Wednesday, which is not good news coming out of the bye week. Kalif Raymond and Tom Kennedy would be next men up, likely in that order, should either miss again this week. St. Brown ranks second in the league in targets per route run rate at 34.8% and should lead this team in receiving for the rest of the season. Tight end T.J. Hockenson ranks in the top 12 at the position in routes run, route participation rate, targets per route run, and team target market share, but he fails to crack the top seven at the position in any of those metrics and holds a modest 7.4 aDOT (13^th). This pass offense is legitimately “Amon-Ra and then everyone else,” particularly if Chark and/or Reynolds can’t go. The primary detractor of the pass offense here is the elite pressure rate forced by the Dallas defensive line and second level, which is likely to limit the average intended air yards from quarterback Jared Goff. As such, volume should be the primary indicator of fantasy goodness here. 

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

• It seems probable that the field will view the Cowboys as a team that is likely to start increasing their aerial aggression with Dak Prescott under center, but Mike McCarthy has made it clear in multiple press conferences over the last two weeks that this is unlikely to be the case (most telling was a press conference in Week 6 where he discussed conversations he had with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this offseason, in which he essentially told Moore that he saw the Cowboys’ defense as the identity of this team, and wanted the offensive game plan to be structured accordingly); we should see a greater willingness to let it rip when necessary, and once Dak gets his feet under him, we should see a more efficient attack, but this should still be an offense built “from the inside out”
• While that’s important to note, it’s also true that CeeDee Lamb — in spite of playing in this run-leaning offense — has target counts on the year of 11 // 11 // 12 // 8 // 8 // 10, while leading the NFL in team target market share; he’s a solid bet this week, in spite of the fact that he’s likely to be extremely popular (that said: his chances of a “had to have it” game are relatively low)
• Zeke is interesting here, albeit as a guy who will likely need two touchdowns in order to really pop, whereas all of Pollard, Schultz, and Gallup are guys who can outperform their salaries while taking away points from more popular players on the Dallas offense if everything breaks just right
• While there are a number of players in consideration for me on the Dallas side, “Amon-Ra or bust” is my likeliest approach with the Lions; while early ownership projections can sometimes move dramatically before the weekend, it’s noteworthy that ARSB is currently projected to carry ownership under 8%, which would increase my interest in him as the engine of an offense that is likely to be trailing as this game progresses

HILOW >>

• Probably the top piece from this game is the Dallas defense. Once the Cowboys are able to force the Lions into more drop backs, their relentless and organic pass rush should absolutely tee off on Jared Goff – and we know what happens when Goff is under pressure. He currently holds a 49.1% completion rate and a three-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. Detroit’s offensive line has given up only seven total sacks this season, a number that legitimately could double here (the Cowboys lead the league with 24 sacks through six games).

• Going back to the discussion on how running backs are putting up GPP-worthy scores in today’s NFL landscape, which is primarily coming through 100-yard games and multiple scores outside a select few backs, leads us to Ezekiel Elliott as a viable candidate to hit those thresholds from this game. As in, if Zeke is seeing 18-22 carries against a poor run defense, after looking better last week than I have seen him run in over two years, there is a legitimate path to a GPP-worthy game. I can’t see him garnering much ownership which helps.

• On the other side, Amon-Ra St. Brown should be absolutely peppered with targets here based on the matchup and likeliest game flow, which keeps him circling my late week condensed player pool. Zeke and St. Brown make for a very naturally, “likeliest scenario” correlated pairing, one that should go largely overlooked this week.

• CeeDee Lamb is likely to gain both steam and interest as the week moves along. How quickly the field forgets that Dak Prescott is an above average NFL quarterback, one that continues his progressions and reads at a quicker rate than someone like Cooper Rush, who targets his top option relentlessly. I say that for a few reasons – (1) Lamb played in one game last year without Amari Cooper, seeing only four targets in that game, (2) the assumption that the Cowboys will lean more pass-heavy with Dak back is likely incorrect, (3) there aren’t many pay-up options at wide receiver, so Lamb is likely to be extremely popular, and (4) Lamb’s modest 9.8 aDOT means he likely requires double-digit targets to get him to the 100-yard bonus, and still has to get in the end zone to put up a GPP-worthy score.

• I don’t have much interest in any other pieces from this game – ranked in order, my interest goes Dallas defense, Ezekiel Elliott, Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• These two teams rank seventh (18.8) and ninth (19.0) in points allowed per game.
• That said, the Jaguars have had the second easiest strength of schedule (SOS) and the highest DVOA variance (a measure of performance versus SOS) while the Giants have had the ninth easiest SOS and third worst defensive DVOA. Something doesn’t add up for each of these teams.
• Furthering that discussion, the Giants are projected at 2.7 wins but currently stand at 5-1 while the Jaguars are projected at 3.1 wins but currently stand at 2-4.
• Both teams rank in the top 13 in average time of possession this season and both teams rank in the top eight in rush attempts per game.
• Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney continue to miss practice to start the week. Toney hasn’t played since Week 2 while Golladay hasn’t played since Week 4.
• Wan’Dale Robinson played only 23% of the team’s offensive snaps in his first game action since playing only nine snaps in Week 1.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

It’s quite amazing what a competent coaching staff can do for a team in such a short period of time. That statement cannot be more true or pertinent as it is when talking about the Giants this season, who completely retooled their coaching staff this offseason. Head coach Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale are consistently placing this team in a position to win games, resulting in a shocking 5-1 record through the season’s first six weeks. As noted in the overview section above, predictive statistics and metrics paint a gloomier picture with New York projected for only 2.7 wins, but the overperforming nature of this team could not be possible without the coaching staff they currently have. The majority of the game plan is simple – blitz teams aggressively (highest blitz rate in the league at 36.0%) to disrupt drives (ranked 13^th in drive success rate allowed and seventh in points allowed) and generate turnovers (eight turnovers in six games) on defense and control the ball and clock through their best player on offense, Saquon Barkley. It’s so simple yet has been so effective. That should remain true ahead of a Week 7 matchup with the Jaguars, whose quarterback has struggled immensely when either blitzed (fifth worst PFF grade of qualified passers when blitzed this season, ahead of only Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson) or when under pressure (third worst PFF grade of qualified passers when under pressure, ahead of only Zach Wilson and Mac Jones).

The Giants have called 32.7 rush plays per game and Saquon Barkley holds an elite 84.8% running back opportunity share, leading to the most carries through six weeks (119, on pace for 337 this season). He has nine breakaway runs already this season (second) in addition to the most yards created (a measure of a running back’s volume plus efficiency). His 60.5% route participation rate ranks third at the running back position. Saquon is back, baby, and Daboll and Kafka are basically designing their offense around what he brings to the table. The pure matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.18 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jaguars defense allowing only 3.6 yards per carry (third in the league behind San Francisco and Buffalo).

The pass game for the Giants is, well, a veritable disaster. With Sterling Shepard lost for the season and Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney out last week, David Sills, Richie James, and Wan’Dale Robinson all played 35% of the offensive snaps or fewer, while Darius Slayton and practice squad wide receiver Marcus Johnson “led the team” with snap rates of 69% and 62%, respectively. Wan’Dale’s 55% slot snap rate and 35.7% targets per route run rate this season hint at the upside once he can return a full allotment of snaps, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when that may be. Furthermore, the Giants have attempted only 27.0 passes per game this season which ranks 29^th in the league ahead of only the Titans, Falcons, and Bears. The Jaguars 3-4 nickel-base zone defense ranks right around league average in completion percentage allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, yards allowed per completion, red zone touchdown rate allowed, defensive aDOT forced, and yards allowed per drive. Overall, consider it a neutral matchup with no clear path for targets to flow outside of Saquon Barkley and potentially Wan’Dale Robinson (he’s highly likely to increase his modest 23% snap rate from a week ago but how high it gets is a relative unknown).

NFL + NBA Props Profit :: $3,305

(Updated 10/22)

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• This will be the second meeting between these two teams in a calendar month. NFL scheduling, figure this out.
• Jonathan Taylor returned to a limited practice on Wednesday while Nyheim Hines was a full-go.
• The Colts have been at or below league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in every game, but last week’s victory over the Jaguars was played without both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines.
• The Titans have been at or below league average in PROE in every game this year.
• The winner of this game takes control of the AFC South approaching the midpoint of the season.
• The Titans have laughably scored only 14 second-half points all season.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts look dynamic on paper with an average of 42.2 pass attempts per game, but the context is lost in translation with the team averaging the third most plays per game this season at 69.5. They ran 92 offensive plays in a Week 1 overtime draw (shoutout to my OWS fam across the pond), ran 81 offensive plays last week against a Jaguars team that ran for multiple splash plays, and ran 79 offensive plays in an overtime win in Week 5 against the hapless Broncos. In their other three games, they averaged 61.67 plays per game, including 66 against these same Titans. Their 65.71% pass play rate tells more of a routinely negative game script than it does of the intention of this offense (as pointed out above, they have been at or below league average in PROE in every game but last week’s win, when they played without both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines). For further context, the last time these two teams played, the Colts fell into a 24-3 hole midway through the second quarter and still finished with only 66 offensive plays run from scrimmage including six punts, with 37 pass attempts due to the extremely negative game script. As in, nothing has truly changed with how this team wants to try and win games, rather it’s much more likely the changing dynamics have been largely due to injuries in the backfield paired with two overtime games and largely negative game environments.

It appears likely the team will get back both of its top running backs, with Jonathan Taylor getting in a limited session on Wednesday after reportedly being close to playing in Week 6, and Nyheim Hines being cleared through the concussion protocol. There is a possibility we see Taylor’s workload scaled back a bit in his first game back from multiple missed games due to an ankle injury, but the norm for this team has been to have Taylor operating in a 75%+ snap share and workload share role, with Nyheim Hines reserved for change of pace and obvious passing down duties. The Colts also utilized the tandem on the field together a non-negligible 12.25% of snaps through four weeks before Taylor got hurt. Taylor’s season average places him at 20 carries and four targets per game, which should be considered the starting point from which to deviate if we get any news on a potential snap count due to his injury. Anything leftover should be left to Hines, with Deon Jackson likely relegated to a pure reserve role after playing only two offensive snaps through the first four games. The matchup on the ground yields a putrid 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Titans defense yielding 4.67 yards per carry to opposing backfields this season.

I’ve talked a lot about Michael Pittman’s non-elite 24.1% targets per route run rate and non-elite 24.4% team target market share this year, with his two blowup games coming in games the Colts ran 92 and 81 offensive plays from scrimmage. Pittman has failed to surpass 15.2 fantasy points in his three other fully healthy games this season and is now the fourth highest priced wide receiver on the slate. He and Parris Campbell found themselves playing nearly every offensive snap each of the last two weeks with Taylor and Hines out, with Campbell maxing out at an 82% snap rate over the first four weeks. It is likelier than not that we see the offense shift back towards a heavy run-based offense this week with their main two backs healthy, which should slightly dent Parris’ expected snap rate in order to fit more 12-personnel alignments. Expect Alec Pierce to play as many snaps as the 12-personnel rates will allow, likely at the direct detriment of Mike Strachan with Ashton Dulin on IR. The Titans can really be beaten in whichever way having allowed 11.8 yards per completion this season. It’s more of a matter of how the Colts choose to attack here.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• One of the FIVE games on the slate with a game total of 43.0 points or less – only the Buccaneers has a larger spread of those games.
• Carson Wentz will miss this contest after having surgery on his finger, leaving Taylor Heinicke to start.
• Tight ends Logan Thomas and John Bates and wide receiver Dyami Brown missed practice on Wednesday for the Commanders – rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson should return after logging a limited session Wednesday.
• Each team should largely be able to run their preferred offensive game plan here, as what they are likely to do lines up well with the shortcomings of the opposing defense.
• This is highly likely to be a gross game environment with not a ton to be overly excited about.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers continue to play at a slow pace (28th in overall pace and play and situation-neutral pace of play) with moderate pass rates (17th-ranked overall pass rate at 59.90% and league average or below pass rate over expectation in four of six games), which they pair with a back-to-front, outside-in pass defense (have allowed the highest completion rate in the league at 70.86% but the sixth lowest yards per completion at 9.2). They run below-average man coverage from their 3-4 base, with an emphasis on swarming the point of reception after the catch. Poor marks against the run for the fourth consecutive year have primarily been due to the second level. Their usual offensive efficiency has taken a stark hit without Davante Adams, going from the league’s third most efficient offense last year to the 21st-ranked unit through six weeks of 2022.

The running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon has been everything from a strict timeshare to a 1A/1B situation to a lead back/change of pace back situation through six weeks, with Aaron Jones seeing between 56% and 73% of the offensive snaps throughout. Strangely enough, Jones’ opportunity share and fantasy output have been highly influenced by game script over the previous three seasons, with the second highest delta in fantasy output in wins versus losses over that time (second only to Derrick Henry’s splits in the same comparison). The Packers are currently installed as five-point favorites on the road (if it were played at home, it would be closer to eight points), which could signal an increased workload on deck for Jones. The pure rushing matchup yields an above-average 4.455 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Washington defense ceding 25.4 DK points per game to opposing backfields, including six total touchdowns to the position.

Slot wide receiver Randall Cobb is set to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury sustained in Week 6, while Christian Watson did not practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s contest with a hamstring injury, which typically is not a good sign for a player’s status the following week. Sammy Watkins returned to practice this week after missing the team’s previous four games. He should combine with Amari Rodgers to fill the void in offensive snaps behind lead wide receivers Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs. Although not responsible for the same level of volume, Lazard has done well stepping into Davante Adams’ shoes in this offense, scoring a touchdown or going over 100 yards receiving in all five healthy games this season. His low 20.9% targets per route run and 19.5% team target market share are nothing to get overly excited about, but the red zone role is robust (25% red zone target rate). Romeo Doubs holds a 21.8% targets per route run rate and 18.2% team target market share, while Cobb’s 23.4% targets per route run rate will be missed over the middle of the field. Tight end Robert Tonyan set a season-high snap rate in Week 6 at 63%. Typically splitting time at tight end with elite blocker Marcedes Lewis, there is room to grow should the Packers increase their 12-personnel usage in the absence of Randall Cobb and Christian Watson.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

• One of the players who was standing out to me on my early, pre-research practice builds was Romeo Doubs — but after a bit of building, I realized that Allen Lazard is only $1.1k more than Doubs, and is nearly invisible when scrolling through available options on the slate; Doubs is a sexier guy to consider, given the media hype around him (hype that was driven, of course, by his surprising rise in camp, rather than by him being a weekly can’t-miss player), and he carries a price tag that is easy to perceive as “too low,” whereas Allen Lazard’s price tag ($6.1k) is easily perceived as “too high”
• There’s a further psychological factor in play here, in that receivers under $5k immediately feel, to us, like riskier bets, whereas guys priced in the $5k range are typically known commodities with relatively solid, known-range production; in the same way my wife will tell me something is “three hundred dollars” when it is, in fact, three hundred ninety-nine dollars, Allen Lazard is “a $6k wide receiver,” which is a range in which we start seeing elite, “comfortable to click” names; Lazard is neither elite nor comfortable to click, which all contributes to early ownership projections of Doubs at 11.3% and Lazard at 3.9%; Doubs is the better value, but given that these two have been relatively interchangeable from a production standpoint, Lazard is the better tourney play in DFS; by Tuesday night, I had started building practice rosters around Lazard, and while the game environment here is ugly, there isn’t any reason he shouldn’t see another eight or nine targets; to be clear, Doubs is an equally “good play,” at a lower price tag, but neither player really pops, making Lazard the more interesting option from a “paths to first place” standpoint; I may not end up with either on my tighter builds, but I’ll probably mix in both in large-field play, with Lazard on more rosters than Doubs
• Given the potential that Washington could provide Green Bay with some short fields and easy scoring opportunities in this one, Aaron Jones is also interesting to me this week; I essentially never play Jones on my Main (he hits so rarely, and misses hard most weeks), but his ceiling is high enough that I’ll mix him in as well, essentially giving me a situation where I’m likely benefitting somewhere if Green Bay is having a good game.
• As a steep underdog with a yardage-and-touchdown role, Brian Robinson is not a “good play,” but early ownership projections have him at 0.5%, and he has exactly the type of role that can lead to a hundred yards and a pair of touchdowns; of course, Washington will have to get in position to score those touchdowns first, but Robinson is practically a must-play on a sliver of MME builds for the low-owned upside he can provide
• I do not expect to be on the Washington passing attack at all, though I wouldn’t go out of my way to argue against Samuel or my guy Dotson
• While I expect to have some one-offs from this game sprinkled across my builds, I won’t have any builds focused around this game

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Treat this game like Medusa, do not look directly at it, or you may turn to stone.
• The Jets have gone on a winning streak by riding their defense and running game while hiding Zach Wilson.
• The Broncos continue to be their own worst enemy, with opponents just having to wait long enough to let them beat themselves.
• The only offensive unit in this game that has shown a consistent pulse has been the Jets running game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets started the season 1-2 and appeared destined for another disappointing season before rolling off three straight victories against the Steelers, Dolphins, and Packers since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup. However, the winning streak has not necessarily been the result of anything Wilson is doing but rather the way the Jets defense has played and the success the running game has had in hiding him. Another huge part of the recent run of success has been their schedule – as they have beaten the Steelers (who made a QB change mid-game), the Dolphins (who were playing with their 3rd string QB for all but one play), and the Packers (who have been terrible on offense this season). Luckily for the Jets, another poor offensive unit is on tap for Week 7, which should allow them to continue their recent recipe for success.

The emergence of Breece Hall and the execution of the Mike LaFleur running game, which originates from the San Francisco/Shanahan scheme, has been key to the Jets success. Zach Wilson has thrown a combined 39 passes over the last two weeks, and the Jets would undoubtedly like to see him only throw around 20 passes again this week against a Broncos pass defense that is the best in the league through six weeks and just held Justin Herbert and the Chargers in check on Monday Night Football. The Jets have run the ball on around 60% of their plays over the past two weeks, and I would expect a similar approach this week for as long as that is feasible. Given the strength of the Jets defense and the ineffectiveness of the Broncos offense, along with mounting injuries for Russell Wilson, the Jets should be able to keep things close enough to stick with that approach deep into the game.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

• It’s unsurprising to see the underpriced Jets as the highest projected-owned defense on the slate, as Robert Saleh’s tutoring has been yielding fruit, while Nathaniel Hackett’s sabotage job has also been successful; what would have looked — a couple months ago — like a potential smash spot for the Broncos is now a spot where we should be considering the road defense and not a whole lot else
• The Denver backfield is an unpredictable mess without slate-winning upside to chase, and unless you think the Jets are going to force an environment of offensive aggressiveness, we have a coach on the sidelines in Denver who proactively manages Broncos games to keep things close and ‘prolong opportunities for the opponent to make a mistake’, which makes it difficult for slate-breaking upside to materialize on any individual pass catcher
• Apparently, people want to chase “acceptable ceiling” with back-breaking floor this week, as Courtland Sutton is currently projected to be on roughly one out of every 10 tournament rosters; you know how much I love Sutton, but he has yet to hit 4x his Week 7 salary this year, and this is not a great spot for this to suddenly happen; Sutton has also failed to hit 2x his Week 7 salary in three of six games
• In spite of the fact that I don’t actually want to play any skill position players from this game, Jerry Jeudy does come with a strong strategy edge, given that he’s projecting for less than 1/5 the ownership of his teammate; Jeudy is less likely than Sutton to hit double-digit DK points, but his skill set and his likely avoidance of Sauce Gardner (whom Saleh will likely pair with Sutton any time he gets proactive) give him a better shot at 30 DK points, and if he’s getting there, he’s actively hurting 10% of the field along the way
• Apparently, people really want to play Greg Dulcich as well, as he’s currently projecting as the highest-owned tight end on the slate; what?
• A question for you :: if Dulcich had seen three targets and scored a touchdown on an invisible 1 PM Eastern game that only aired in local markets, would he project as the highest-owned tight end this week?
• I actually really like Dulcich as a player, and he was all over my Showdown builds for that slate, but this is a guy who scored a long touchdown early in a primetime game, and now everyone wants to play him at minimum price in spite of the fact that they would not have known he existed if his game had occurred away from primetime
• On the Jets, it’s Breece or nothing for me; the matchup is bad, but the talent is good, which keeps him on the fringes of consideration

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams enter Week 7 coming off a bye and with only one win so far this season.
• Las Vegas will likely play this game without Darren Waller, and their offense has become very concentrated toward Josh Jacobs, with a likely renewed focus on getting Davante Adams involved.
• Houston won their first game of the year before the bye, leaning heavily on their running game on the back of Dameon Pierce.
• Houston’s defense has performed well for most of this season but has faced a very easy schedule of offenses.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans have been very competitive this season despite talent deficiencies across the board. They play a relatively conservative game and have learned to lean on rookie sensation Dameon Pierce in their running game, giving him 24 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game over the last three weeks. Head coach Lovie Smith also stated this week that their intention is to continue leaning on Pierce in all but 3rd and long situations when he leaves the field for Rex Burkhead. It is not a surprise that the Texans would lean heavily on their running game, as quarterback Davis Mills is decent as a game manager at times but has not shown much growth in his second season. Mills ranks 25th in the NFL in QB rating and 30th in the league in yards per pass attempt – he also has thrown only five touchdown passes while turning the ball over five times, with another three fumbles his own team recovered.

The Raiders defense has been much worse against the pass than the run this year, but the overall context and approach of the Texans team will dictate that they continue a conservative, run-heavy approach in this matchup. Houston has played at a relatively quick tempo this season – ranking 11th in situation-neutral pace of play – as a result of changing tempos at times to keep defenses off balance and occasionally “steal” a play from an unprepared defense. However, they are unlikely to become overly aggressive in this matchup or consistently play at a fast pace unless forced to do so.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

• It’s tempting in a spot like this to imagine a scenario in which the Raiders attempt to “assert dominance” coming out of the bye, but realistically, the composition of both their team and their coaching staff point to this team being likelier to focus on “wins” over “production”; and against a Houston team that doesn’t have the weapons or makeup to surge back from a deficit, we can feel relatively comfortable predicting a methodical approach from the Raiders that remains methodical if they remain in control of this game
• With that in mind, I won’t be stacking up the Raiders offense as a priority (i.e., this won’t be something I feature on my tighter builds, and while I may have some onslaught builds in MME that put Carr // Jacobs // Davante on a roster together, this will be the exception for me rather than the norm), but Jacobs and Davante are nevertheless very much in the “one-off” mix, with each player capable of producing a score you “had to have” this week
• Jacobs is expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate (which is funny, given how disgusting it felt in Week 1 — not that long ago! — to play him on my Main Build at 1% ownership, and given how much time I felt I had to spend explaining why it was a sharp play!), and while there are obvious ways any player could fail, it’s difficult to argue against a role that has yielded five receptions in three consecutive games, with touch counts of 33 and 26 in his last two; I’ll want to keep in mind the fact that Jacobs posted only 14.7 DK points against Tennessee just three games ago (with five receptions!), and is still reliant on touchdowns for ceiling — which makes Davante (one of the top two or three wideouts in the NFL, who derives his ceiling from touchdowns as well, and is projected at 1/6 the ownership of Jacobs) one of the most intriguing plays on the slate :: if Davante is scoring the touchdowns here, those who roster him will benefit from his points while simultaneously hurting roughly 40% of rosters around them
• Dameon Pierce is less shiny than Jacobs, given the lower scoring expectations for the Texans, but there is no question he can post a score that would justify having rostered him, keeping him very much in the mix as well
• Brandin Cooks is unlikely to reach double-digits unless Houston is trailing by a couple scores, which makes him less attractive to me as a one-off play, but fine to consider on builds that feature Jacobs or Davante

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chargers offense should have a relatively high floor in this one, with the game’s outlook depending mostly on the success of the Seahawks offense.
• Both teams won relatively ugly games last week but should have the ability to exploit advantageous matchups this week.
• The Chargers run defense is one of the worst in the league and the Seahawks will need to attack it to open up the passing game.
• The Chargers passing game should be able to attack Seattle all over the field and their uptempo pace should give the Seahawks fits.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks passing game came back down to earth in Week 6 against the Cardinals, although that should have been at least somewhat expected as the Arizona defense has done a tremendous job against wide receivers this season. The Chargers pass defense has been middle of the pack by most metrics this season, but has been very solid outside of a few mistakes and has held up well despite losing star edge rusher Joey Bosa in Week 3. In Monday night’s win over the Broncos, highly paid free agent addition cornerback J.C. Jackson had a huge blown coverage in the first half and was then benched for the remainder of the game. After having a very good first half passing the ball, Russell Wilson managed only three completions in the second half and overtime. Seattle has the talent at wide receiver to produce in any matchup, especially if they fall behind and are forced to become more aggressive, but this sets up as a matchup that will be difficult for them to be efficient consistently through the air. We could also see the Seahawks get their trio of tight ends involved early in this game as a means of conservatively moving the ball through the air.

The Seahawks leaned heavily on Kenneth Walker in Week 6, treating him as a feature back and giving him 23 of the 25 running back touches. He performed admirably in that role, providing 110 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against a solid Cardinals defense. Seattle now travels south to Los Angeles to face a Chargers team playing on a short week that ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed and has given up 100-yard rushing games to running backs in three of their last four games, the hapless Cardinals with their third-string running back being the only exception. Seattle will undoubtedly try to establish Walker and get him into space against a Chargers defense that ranks 29th in the league in tackling grade by PFF. The Seahawks have to be aware of their defensive shortcomings against such a high-powered offense and will certainly be looking to keep this game in striking distance and not allow the Chargers to get rolling and build a big lead. Sustained drives which attack the Chargers clear area of weakness are their path to doing just that.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This is a matchup of strength on strength as the 49ers lean heavily on their elite defense while the Chiefs are driven by Patrick Mahomes and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL.
• A key to this game will be whether the 49ers running game can create issues and move the ball against the Chiefs.
• Kansas City’s offense is unlikely to “fail” but may struggle to turn drives into touchdowns.
• San Francisco will want to avoid a situation where they are playing from behind and predictable like they faced last week.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs offense is the highest-scoring unit in the NFL, averaging 29.8 points per game through six weeks. They will have their hands full this week with a 49ers defense that is allowing only 14.8 points per game and has given up more than one offensive touchdown in only one game this season. That being said, the Chiefs offense is light years better than anything San Francisco has seen this year, and the 49ers just gave up 28 points to the Falcons in Week 6. The 49ers defense has also been battling injuries, with several starters limited or missing practice to start this week again.

The Chiefs offense operates exactly how you would expect a team with Patrick Mahomes to operate – with the 2nd highest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the league and the 8th fastest situation-neutral pace of play. They lean heavily on their all-world QB, and he has shown that his greatness was not dependent on Tyreek Hill, making do with an average supporting cast outside of Travis Kelce. Mahomes will have to play at a high level once again this week against a San Francisco coverage unit that PFF grades as #2 in the NFL. In last week’s game against the Bills, Juju Smith-Schuster had his best game of the season, and Mecole Hardman scored a touchdown, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling had zero catches and dropped a touchdown while having another one called back by a holding penalty. This week against the 49ers, the Chiefs will face a team that plays zone coverage at a top-5 rate in the NFL. It will be interesting to see if the 49ers change that approach this week, as the Chiefs have faced the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season. Given how good the 49ers defense is, I would expect them to “stick with what works for them” rather than altering their approach. This could actually help the Chiefs receiving corps, which has struggled to create separation at times this season and should be able to find some holes in the zones they face – assuming the offensive line is able to provide adequate time for Mahomes to make plays.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

• One of the thoughts I want to keep in mind for this game is the fact that Kyle Shanahan will know his offense will likely need to score points in this game in order to win; here’s what I mean…
  • Shanahan has been with the 49ers long enough that it can be easy to forget he was always an aggressive, forward-leaning play-caller before winding up with this tremendous San Francisco defense; he talked early in his tenure with the 49ers about the fact that he could call plays differently with the defense he had — but this should also indicate to us that Shanny will be smart enough and willing enough to look at a matchup like this one and know that “hoping the defense shuts down Mahomes” will not be a viable approach
  • While San Francisco will continue to lean on the run here, we should also expect them to proactively mix in creative pass concepts designed to get the ball into the hands of Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle in space — making all three guys interesting to me in tourneys this week
  • There is a cloud of uncertainty in the backfield now, with the 49ers trading for CMC; realistically, he will not be able to play a full role this week (he will have had zero practices with this team, and will know very little of the terminology), but Shanny has talked about the idea of essentially crash-coursing CMC on the 49ers’ red zone offense and getting him in position to come on the field there; given the magnitude of this game, I would expect this to be something the 49ers figure out in time for kickoff, which would tighten up the paths to upside for all other 49ers, given the risk that CMC would “play little, but steal some valuable red zone work”; basically, if CMC is active, I’ll still have interest in the pass catchers listed above, but that interest will be slightly depressed
  • If CMC misses, it’s likely that the field will completely overlook Jeff Wilson, who would be in line for one last stand as the starter; Wilson would enter my pool of “okay plays on paper, but strong from a strategy standpoint,” given that he would likely have extremely low ownership, on an offense where other players will likely have moderate ownership (i.e., “leverage”)
• On KC, it’s likely “Mahomes + Kelce, or nothing” for me (as we know: if Kelce hits, Mahomes is a free bet, so you may as well play them together; and if Mahomes hits, Kelce is the natural stacking partner); both guys are in play for me in this spot

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football brings us one of those games for which I am super glad that Showdown exists because otherwise, I would pay zero attention. The Steelers visit the Dolphins for a 45.5 total game with Miami favored by a touchdown (meaning the Steelers are implied for under 20 points, what fun). Both teams are getting healthier, with all of Tua Tagovailoa, Kenny Pickett, and Pat Freiermuth expected to return to action.

Miami

The Miami run game has been a weird one this season. Chase Edmonds started out as the lead back, which was what most people expected in the offseason based on the contract they gave him and depth charts (and you can see it from season-long and Best Ball ADPs) but Raheem Mostert seems to have stolen the job away from him. Mostert has out-snapped Edmonds significantly over the last three games, a span in which he has 47 carries and 8 targets against just 10 carries and 7 targets for Edmonds. Miami’s coaching staff has talked about there being an “Edmonds game” coming, but it’s hard to know if that’s just coach-speak or not. On paper, as a large home favorite in a reasonable matchup, Mostert looks quite underpriced at just $7,800. Just be aware of the risk of a role switch, and if you’re going very heavy Mostert in MME, it makes sense to hedge with some rosters that are built around the idea of Edmonds beating him out in this game. In a vacuum, Edmonds looks like a really terrible play with 6 or fewer carries in every game since Week 1 and averaging just 2.5 targets per game on the season; he’s overpriced for the role, which should lead to very low ownership. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the air, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have really not missed a beat despite a merry-go-round of quarterbacks in the past few weeks. At least one of them has put up 13+ Draftkings points in every game this season, and that number jumps to 18+ Draftkings points if you look at 5 of 6 games. The odds are very, very high that at least one of them will land in the optimal lineup in a positive matchup with their best quarterback back in action and a high team total. These two represent one of the most concentrated pairings of volume in the entire NFL, with a whopping 113 out of 172 targets to receivers (113 out of 213 if you include targets to backs). Put another way: Tyreek Hill has 65 targets, and Jaylen Waddle has 48 targets. Next on the team is Mike Gesicki with just 19. I’m beating the drum here, but these two are lynchpins of this slate – it’s super likely at least one will be in the winning lineup, they will also be very highly owned so it’s a major decision point. If you want to try to be different elsewhere, I would consider a rule of every lineup must have at least one of Hill/Waddle. Or, you could bet against that as your major contrarian stand, and exclude them both. You’re not likely to win that way, but if you DO win, you’re far less likely to be duplicated just by excluding those two guys. After Reke and Waddle it gets really thin in the Dolphins receiving corps. Mike Gesicki appears to have risen from the dead with two games of 4+ targets in his last three, and while I expect his usage to be volatile from game to game, talent has never been the issue with Gesicki, the Dolphins actually passing to him has been the issue. He’s a good receiver and if he gets the volume, he can absolutely hit here. Past that, you’re drawing very thin. Trent Sherfield is playing the most WR snaps after Reke/Waddle but has only exceeded 10 receiving yards in one game (seriously). Cedrick Wilson and River Cracraft aren’t playing much and belong only in MME punt pools, and while Durham Smythe is looking likelier to play than not, he only has seven targets on the year (if Smythe misses, Hunter Long and Tanner Conner will enter the MME pool, and you can also include fullback Alec Ingold here as well regardless of Smythe’s status). This is a wildly concentrated passing offense, and that’s what makes it the critical decision point of the slate. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oh, joy, another terrible island game to end Week 7 as the Bears visit the Patriots. This game has a 40.5 total with the Patriots favored by -8, giving the Bears just 16.5 implied points. Good thing Showdown exists or nobody would care about this one.

Chicago

On the Chicago side, we know they want to be a run focused offense. They’re also in a run funnel matchup, with the Patriots ranking 6th in pass defense DVOA but just 26th against the run. We generally expect Chicago to lean run heavy (Fields has only exceeded 22 pass attempts in one game this season), and that will hold true here as long as the game is even reasonably close. David Montgomery should be the lead back here. I say should because even though he’s seen 72% and 78% of the snaps in his two games since returning from injury, there was some coach-speak about getting Khalil Herbert more involved and riding the hot hand. Herbert has been the better runner this year, but while he’s been talked up, we haven’t actually seen it play out in a game yet, with Herbert seeing just 11 opportunities in the past two games compared to 32 for Montgomery. You could bet on that changing here, of course, but there’s nothing except a bit of coach-speak that points to it. Montgomery is the safest skill position player on the Bears, but just keep in mind this is a team projected to score just 16.5 points, which makes it hard for me to want to spend $10.6k on him (then again, there aren’t a lot of guys I DO want to spend up for in this game). Herbert is a reasonable RB2 play (remember “RB2 in Showdown” tends to hit at a rate higher than it’s owned at). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears will trot out Darnell Mooney as their clear WR1 with Equanimeous St. Brown and Dante Pettis playing the bulk of the other WR snaps, with Ihmir Smith-Marsette and occasionally Velus Jones mixing in. These guys are all just tourney plays. Mooney is talented but in this low-volume offense, he has seen six or fewer targets in all but one game, while the others are all basically “big play or bust” (with Pettis the best chance for a big play). At tight end, Cole Kmet is playing the bulk of the snaps, more than any pass catcher except Mooney, but he has four or fewer targets in every game this year. Trevon Wesco and perhaps Ryan Griffin will mix in a bit at tight end as well. Gee, this section sure seems brief, doesn’t it? Well, that’s what happens when we have an offense that projects to throw something like 22-24 passes going up against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. There is literally nothing that points to any success here for the Bears pass catching group, but if you’re playing tournaments, you’ll likely want some exposure here. Mooney is the obvious best play, and then I’d want some of Pettis for his upside (two 40+ yard touchdown catches on the season), and the others I’ll just rotate in at low ownership. I would strongly consider a rule of max two of any Bears pass catchers.