Kickoff Monday, Oct 24th 8:15pm Eastern

Bears (
15.75) at

Patriots (

Over/Under 40.0


Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass


Oh, joy, another terrible island game to end Week 7 as the Bears visit the Patriots. This game has a 40.5 total with the Patriots favored by -8, giving the Bears just 16.5 implied points. Good thing Showdown exists or nobody would care about this one.


On the Chicago side, we know they want to be a run focused offense. They’re also in a run funnel matchup, with the Patriots ranking 6th in pass defense DVOA but just 26th against the run. We generally expect Chicago to lean run heavy (Fields has only exceeded 22 pass attempts in one game this season), and that will hold true here as long as the game is even reasonably close. David Montgomery should be the lead back here. I say should because even though he’s seen 72% and 78% of the snaps in his two games since returning from injury, there was some coach-speak about getting Khalil Herbert more involved and riding the hot hand. Herbert has been the better runner this year, but while he’s been talked up, we haven’t actually seen it play out in a game yet, with Herbert seeing just 11 opportunities in the past two games compared to 32 for Montgomery. You could bet on that changing here, of course, but there’s nothing except a bit of coach-speak that points to it. Montgomery is the safest skill position player on the Bears, but just keep in mind this is a team projected to score just 16.5 points, which makes it hard for me to want to spend $10.6k on him (then again, there aren’t a lot of guys I DO want to spend up for in this game). Herbert is a reasonable RB2 play (remember “RB2 in Showdown” tends to hit at a rate higher than it’s owned at). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears will trot out Darnell Mooney as their clear WR1 with Equanimeous St. Brown and Dante Pettis playing the bulk of the other WR snaps, with Ihmir Smith-Marsette and occasionally Velus Jones mixing in. These guys are all just tourney plays. Mooney is talented but in this low-volume offense, he has seen six or fewer targets in all but one game, while the others are all basically “big play or bust” (with Pettis the best chance for a big play). At tight end, Cole Kmet is playing the bulk of the snaps, more than any pass catcher except Mooney, but he has four or fewer targets in every game this year. Trevon Wesco and perhaps Ryan Griffin will mix in a bit at tight end as well. Gee, this section sure seems brief, doesn’t it? Well, that’s what happens when we have an offense that projects to throw something like 22-24 passes going up against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. There is literally nothing that points to any success here for the Bears pass catching group, but if you’re playing tournaments, you’ll likely want some exposure here. Mooney is the obvious best play, and then I’d want some of Pettis for his upside (two 40+ yard touchdown catches on the season), and the others I’ll just rotate in at low ownership. I would strongly consider a rule of max two of any Bears pass catchers. 


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