Kickoff Sunday, Oct 23rd 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
19.5) at

Broncos (
17.5)

Over/Under 37.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Treat this game like Medusa, do not look directly at it, or you may turn to stone.
  • The Jets have gone on a winning streak by riding their defense and running game while hiding Zach Wilson.
  • The Broncos continue to be their own worst enemy, with opponents just having to wait long enough to let them beat themselves.
  • The only offensive unit in this game that has shown a consistent pulse has been the Jets running game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets started the season 1-2 and appeared destined for another disappointing season before rolling off three straight victories against the Steelers, Dolphins, and Packers since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup. However, the winning streak has not necessarily been the result of anything Wilson is doing but rather the way the Jets defense has played and the success the running game has had in hiding him. Another huge part of the recent run of success has been their schedule – as they have beaten the Steelers (who made a QB change mid-game), the Dolphins (who were playing with their 3rd string QB for all but one play), and the Packers (who have been terrible on offense this season). Luckily for the Jets, another poor offensive unit is on tap for Week 7, which should allow them to continue their recent recipe for success.

The emergence of Breece Hall and the execution of the Mike LaFleur running game, which originates from the San Francisco/Shanahan scheme, has been key to the Jets success. Zach Wilson has thrown a combined 39 passes over the last two weeks, and the Jets would undoubtedly like to see him only throw around 20 passes again this week against a Broncos pass defense that is the best in the league through six weeks and just held Justin Herbert and the Chargers in check on Monday Night Football. The Jets have run the ball on around 60% of their plays over the past two weeks, and I would expect a similar approach this week for as long as that is feasible. Given the strength of the Jets defense and the ineffectiveness of the Broncos offense, along with mounting injuries for Russell Wilson, the Jets should be able to keep things close enough to stick with that approach deep into the game.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

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  • It’s unsurprising to see the underpriced Jets as the highest projected-owned defense on the slate, as Robert Saleh’s tutoring has been yielding fruit, while Nathaniel Hackett’s sabotage job has also been successful; what would have looked — a couple months ago — like a potential smash spot for the Broncos is now a spot where we should be considering the road defense and not a whole lot else
  • The Denver backfield is an unpredictable mess without slate-winning upside to chase, and unless you think the Jets are going to force an environment of offensive aggressiveness, we have a coach on the sidelines in Denver who proactively manages Broncos games to keep things close and ‘prolong opportunities for the opponent to make a mistake’, which makes it difficult for slate-breaking upside to materialize on any individual pass catcher
  • Apparently, people want to chase “acceptable ceiling” with back-breaking floor this week, as Courtland Sutton is currently projected to be on roughly one out of every 10 tournament rosters; you know how much I love Sutton, but he has yet to hit 4x his Week 7 salary this year, and this is not a great spot for this to suddenly happen; Sutton has also failed to hit 2x his Week 7 salary in three of six games
  • In spite of the fact that I don’t actually want to play any skill position players from this game, Jerry Jeudy does come with a strong strategy edge, given that he’s projecting for less than 1/5 the ownership of his teammate; Jeudy is less likely than Sutton to hit double-digit DK points, but his skill set and his likely avoidance of Sauce Gardner (whom Saleh will likely pair with Sutton any time he gets proactive) give him a better shot at 30 DK points, and if he’s getting there, he’s actively hurting 10% of the field along the way
  • Apparently, people really want to play Greg Dulcich as well, as he’s currently projecting as the highest-owned tight end on the slate; what?
  • A question for you :: if Dulcich had seen three targets and scored a touchdown on an invisible 1 PM Eastern game that only aired in local markets, would he project as the highest-owned tight end this week?
  • I actually really like Dulcich as a player, and he was all over my Showdown builds for that slate, but this is a guy who scored a long touchdown early in a primetime game, and now everyone wants to play him at minimum price in spite of the fact that they would not have known he existed if his game had occurred away from primetime
  • On the Jets, it’s Breece or nothing for me; the matchup is bad, but the talent is good, which keeps him on the fringes of consideration