Kickoff Sunday, Oct 23rd 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
20.5) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 44.0


Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • These two teams rank seventh (18.8) and ninth (19.0) in points allowed per game.
  • That said, the Jaguars have had the second easiest strength of schedule (SOS) and the highest DVOA variance (a measure of performance versus SOS) while the Giants have had the ninth easiest SOS and third worst defensive DVOA. Something doesn’t add up for each of these teams.
  • Furthering that discussion, the Giants are projected at 2.7 wins but currently stand at 5-1 while the Jaguars are projected at 3.1 wins but currently stand at 2-4.
  • Both teams rank in the top 13 in average time of possession this season and both teams rank in the top eight in rush attempts per game.
  • Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney continue to miss practice to start the week. Toney hasn’t played since Week 2 while Golladay hasn’t played since Week 4.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson played only 23% of the team’s offensive snaps in his first game action since playing only nine snaps in Week 1.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

It’s quite amazing what a competent coaching staff can do for a team in such a short period of time. That statement cannot be more true or pertinent as it is when talking about the Giants this season, who completely retooled their coaching staff this offseason. Head coach Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale are consistently placing this team in a position to win games, resulting in a shocking 5-1 record through the season’s first six weeks. As noted in the overview section above, predictive statistics and metrics paint a gloomier picture with New York projected for only 2.7 wins, but the overperforming nature of this team could not be possible without the coaching staff they currently have. The majority of the game plan is simple – blitz teams aggressively (highest blitz rate in the league at 36.0%) to disrupt drives (ranked 13th in drive success rate allowed and seventh in points allowed) and generate turnovers (eight turnovers in six games) on defense and control the ball and clock through their best player on offense, Saquon Barkley. It’s so simple yet has been so effective. That should remain true ahead of a Week 7 matchup with the Jaguars, whose quarterback has struggled immensely when either blitzed (fifth worst PFF grade of qualified passers when blitzed this season, ahead of only Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson) or when under pressure (third worst PFF grade of qualified passers when under pressure, ahead of only Zach Wilson and Mac Jones).

The Giants have called 32.7 rush plays per game and Saquon Barkley holds an elite 84.8% running back opportunity share, leading to the most carries through six weeks (119, on pace for 337 this season). He has nine breakaway runs already this season (second) in addition to the most yards created (a measure of a running back’s volume plus efficiency). His 60.5% route participation rate ranks third at the running back position. Saquon is back, baby, and Daboll and Kafka are basically designing their offense around what he brings to the table. The pure matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.18 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jaguars defense allowing only 3.6 yards per carry (third in the league behind San Francisco and Buffalo).

The pass game for the Giants is, well, a veritable disaster. With Sterling Shepard lost for the season and Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney out last week, David Sills, Richie James, and Wan’Dale Robinson all played 35% of the offensive snaps or fewer, while Darius Slayton and practice squad wide receiver Marcus Johnson “led the team” with snap rates of 69% and 62%, respectively. Wan’Dale’s 55% slot snap rate and 35.7% targets per route run rate this season hint at the upside once he can return a full allotment of snaps, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when that may be. Furthermore, the Giants have attempted only 27.0 passes per game this season which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only the Titans, Falcons, and Bears. The Jaguars 3-4 nickel-base zone defense ranks right around league average in completion percentage allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, yards allowed per completion, red zone touchdown rate allowed, defensive aDOT forced, and yards allowed per drive. Overall, consider it a neutral matchup with no clear path for targets to flow outside of Saquon Barkley and potentially Wan’Dale Robinson (he’s highly likely to increase his modest 23% snap rate from a week ago but how high it gets is a relative unknown).

NFL + NBA Props Profit :: $3,305

(Updated 10/22)

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

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