The Sunday Deuce 20.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Sunday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview ::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Texans – Houston won their opening game against the Steelers in convincing fashion but face a much tougher challenge this week. The Texans will be without star wide receiver Nico Collins for this matchup. Potential for this to turn into a legit “snow game” if forecasts hold.
• Patriots – New England won a low scoring defensive battle with the Chargers in the Wild Card round and have another difficult matchup this week against an elite Texans defense. Drake Maye continues to play at a high level even when the box score doesn’t show it, but the team’s usage and matchup make it tough to figure out who, if anyone, can post a big score. Potential for this to turn into a legit “snow game” if forecasts hold.
• Rams – The Rams are the league’s best offense and dropped 34 on the Panthers despite their offense seeming flat for long periods. They face a Bears defense that is among the league’s worst on a per-play basis and is dealing with injuries as well. Los Angeles should move the ball at will and how we are handling them should be at the forefront of any roster we make for this slate. This game will be played in extremely frigid temperatures, which has generated a lot of discussion on if and how it will negatively affect the Rams.
• Bears – Chicago tries to play methodically and control the ball and tempo through their physical running game, but is often pulled out of their shell when they fall behind. If the Rams offense gets going how I suspect they might, Chicago could have to crank things up early yet again. The frigid temperatures could, in theory, help Chicago keep this as a low scoring game.

QB Thoughts ::

• CJ Stroud is an interesting cheap option as New England might be good enough to keep Houston from running the ball effectively and without Nico Collins any Stroud stacks become very cheap to make. The ideal way to build with him is probably a single (maybe double?) with one or two Patriots, then loading up on the expensive Rams players.
• Drake Maye is a tough one as you have to spend more than all the other QBs except Stafford, and he is priced right around the same as Stafford in a much tougher matchup and with far less stack certainty. Maye’s bigger games (25+ points) have basically all come in higher scoring game environments or against weaker teams, neither of which applies this week. I probably won’t have any.
• Matthew Stafford is the top QB option on the slate and obviously on this small of a slate you are using at least one of his elite WRs with him, likely along with others. This size of a slate allows playing him with both of Puka and Adams, as they could very well be the top scoring WRs on the slate. Including the tight ends and running backs in creative ways is likely how we differentiate ourselves.
• Caleb Williams is probably going to be chucking it, we just have to see how early in the game that starts and if the Rams are as giving as Green Bay was last week. For GPP’s, Williams might be the most intriguing quarterback as his WRs are all likely to have relatively modest ownership and have modest price tags. A “Williams double” with any two of Loveland, Swift, or any of the WRs as the “double” along with two or three Rams is one of my favorite ways to build on the slate.

RB Thoughts ::

• There is a dichotomy within the position on this slate. The Patriots and Rams are the teams likeliest to give us great RB production, but they split the work. The Bears also split their work and make for an interesting approach if betting that the game is lower scoring. Woody Marks is the odd ball as the clear primary option for his team but a tough matchup for his offense.
• Rhamondre Stevenson seems to have taken over a bigger role for this offense, but I really love TreVeyon Henderson on this slate. He is so explosive and Houston is very good down-to-down so it might be explosive plays that are required for production. Henderson went over 30 points three times this season, needing only 16 and 15 opportunities to do so in two of the three instances. I like both backs a lot this weekend and most lineups will have one of them (none will have both).
• Kyren Williams and Blake Corum continue to split work about 60/40 as they alternate drives but Kyren gets some extra situational work. This week both get an elite matchup. Williams is the best RB play on the slate, while Corum might be my favorite way to differentiate in GPP’s among all players at all positions. 
• D’Andre Swift can be played opposite Rams stacks easily as he could post a solid game in any game script thanks to his receiving ability.
• Probably not playing any Woody Marks this week. Maybe once I build my lineups he sneaks in, but usually on these slates I try to just wipe off one player to condense my player pool and hope they don’t crush me. He feels like the least likely to win me a tournament if I play him and also the least likely to keep me from winning a tournament if I don’t.

WR Thoughts ::

• The Rams guys are obvious. One of Puka or Adams on every roster. Puka’s matchup with Kyler Gordon is incredible, although the Bears could alter how they play after the Packers targeted him so aggressively.
• Christian Kirk is coming off a huge game and Jayden Higgins enters a great opportunity with Nico Collins off the field, but could find himself in the coverage of Christian Gonzalez at a high rate as a result. Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel will likely factor in as well. I really like Kirk to have another solid game and he is mispriced.
• Luther Burden III at sub-$5k is simply not something you are likely to see in the coming years. 
• DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are extremely hard to trust given recent production and Odunze’s foot injury, but if Caleb throws 40 passes we shouldn’t be surprised if one of these guys pops up for a nice score. 
• The Patriots WRs have a really tough matchup and the team uses the RBs and TEs so much, while spreading out the targets, that it is tough for any of them to post a score that really hurts you.

TE Thoughts ::

• Colston Loveland is where this conversation starts. Elite talent whose price has risen but still can dust the entire position, especially on a smaller slate without a ton of expensive options at other positions.
• Dalton Schultz seems like he is in a spot where targets could be funneled to him as a result of circumstances. Houston probably struggles to run as efficiently as they did against Pittsburgh, while Gonzalez smothers Higgins and the Patriots won’t be caught off guard by Kirk. Don’t be surprised if Schultz sees double digit targets in this one.
• Parkinson and Higbee are once again bringing down each other’s projections, but each is capable of a multi-touchdown game that can alter the slate. As suggested in the overview, how we build the Rams into our rosters is basically at the center of our decisions for this slate.
• Hunter Henry (and Austin Hooper) could have solid games for similar reasons to what was discussed about Schultz, although volume probably won’t be the same for either of them and they’ll need touchdowns to post a meaningful score. Henry has double digit points in six of his last seven games, but over 15 only once. 

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB ::

1. Kyren Williams
2. Rhamondre Stevenson
3. D’Andre Swift
4. TreVeyon Henderson
5. Blake Corum
6. Woody Marks

WR ::

1. Puka Nacua
2. Davante Adams
3. Luther Burden III
4. Christian Kirk
5. Stefon Diggs
6. Jayden Higgins
7. DJ Moore
8. Kayshon Boutte
9. Rome Odunze

TE ::

1. Colston Loveland
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Colby Parkinson
4. Hunter Henry
5. Tyler Higbee

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Kyle Monangai
  • Xavier Smith
  • Austin Hooper
  • Jaylin Noel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 3:00 pm ET Sunday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)