The Scroll Reflection Edition. 17.21.

Why does Vegas set lines? What is their goal? Well, Vegas sets lines in an attempt to get exactly half of the action on each side of every line they post. In this case, they take the rake, guarantee a profit, and move on. So, does that mean Vegas lines are perfectly set? Furthermore, does it mean they are always perfectly set early in the week? No! Every week this season (starting Week 2), we’ll be jumping into early-week betting line inefficiencies to take advantage of before they move. This line movement can be caused by a number of factors, but the primary reasons for movements after initial line release are public sentiment and recency biases (shark money typically doesn’t come in until later in the week, when bettors have more complete information). With that, let’s jump in!

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+EV LINES (Week 17)::

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (OVER 44.5; BET MGM, -110):

This line rocketed down to its current level from an opening number of 48.0 once Colts quarterback Carson Wentz was placed on the league’s COVID list. As an unvaccinated player, his fate would seemingly be sealed heading into a must-win game against the Raiders. Shortly after, the league and NFLPA came together to shorten the required time spent on the league’s COVID list from a 10-day mandatory quarantine period for unvaccinated players to a five-day window for both vaccinated and unvaccinated players, after which players that were either experiencing “improving symptoms or that remain asymptomatic” could return. Wentz was placed on the COVID list on Tuesday, meaning he has a chance to play this week, should he either remain asymptomatic or personally report an improving trend (because it is on the “honor system” now). This gives us additional “outs” on the over, particularly considering the Raiders will be without three starting linebackers for a matchup against Jonathan Taylor and the top rushing offense in the league.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3.5) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (BET MGM, -110):

This game carries one of the biggest playoff implications of any game this weekend. The Dolphins have made history as the only team to ever hold both a seven-game losing streak and a seven-game winning streak in the same season, the latter of which has propelled them into the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC, an absolutely remarkable turnaround. During that seven-game win streak, the Dolphins have generated 33 sacks and allowed only 11.7 points per game. The Titans offense remains without Derrick Henry and they have ceded the second-highest adjusted sack rate on offense. In a game with a game total of only 40.0 points, taking the points and hook on the side of the Dolphins is significantly +EV for us this week. 

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (Over 46.5; BET MGM, -110):

There are still a good deal of unknowns surrounding the Ravens this week, primarily involving their quarterback position. That said, when thinking through how both of these teams are likeliest to attack in a must-win game for each side (the Rams could fall into the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC, setting up a possible first-round road matchup against the Bucs, while the Ravens need to win out and get some help to sneak into the playoffs), heavy pass rates are likely in the cards. Baltimore somewhat quietly leads the league in overall pass rate over the previous four games, while the Rams are one of the more adaptable offenses in the league when it comes to avenue of attack (as in, the Ravens rank first in yards allowed per carry and last in yards allowed per pass this season). High pace of play, elevated pass rates, and a bit of desperation leads to value on the over here.

HONORABLE MENTIONS::

DENVER BRONCOS (+6.5) @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (BET MGM, -110):

The Broncos are tied with the New England Patriots for the fewest points allowed per game this season at just 17.3. They also have one of the most talented backfield duos in the league, will be starting a backup quarterback, and have a top-five rush rate over the previous month of play. Their opponent, the Chargers, rank 31st in DVOA against the run and allow the fourth-highest yards per carry. That elevated expected rush rate, elevated chance at sustained drives from the Broncos, and top scoring defense in the league is likely to combine for lower-than-average offensive plays run from scrimmage, lower-than-average total possessions, and suppressed scoring here. All of that plays right into the Broncos hands as they fight off playoff elimination this week. Take the points on the road.

How do you consistently beat opponents in dynasty and season-long settings when you all start with the same amount of FAAB (Free Agent Auction Bidding) dollars, a rotating waiver priority, or a standings-based waiver system? Are some people just luckier than others in nabbing their guy? How do some managers seem to have triple the FAAB budget? If you’ve played dynasty or season-long fantasy football, you’ve probably found yourself wondering these same questions at one point or the other.

The reason some managers seem to assemble stacked rosters is twofold: they draft for ceiling and fill in the gaps through waivers, and they are early to the party on “hidden gems” off the wire. That last point is the whole reason we are here. In order to consistently beat dynasty and season-long fantasy football, you have to not only be aggressive on the waiver wire, but you have to know where to look to find the players your opponents will be looking for NEXT WEEK. Successful waivers do not involve simply scooping as many replacement running backs as possible after an injury occurs. It takes knowledge, planning, foresight, and a little bit of gusto. You don’t need another talking head to tell you to grab Devontae Booker after Saquon Barkley was injured, or to grab Chuba Hubbard after Christian McCaffrey went down, or to grab Elijah Mitchell after the 49ers lost three running backs. So, that is exactly what we will be doing in this piece for the remainder of the season. We’ll scour the league to find the players in the best position to be difference-makers should one thing work in their favor, and we’ll do so weeks before our competition. Your opponents can’t blow their waiver priority or FAAB budget on players already on your roster!

Oh, and since there are enough analysts in the industry telling you who the obvious pickups are, we won’t waste our time with those players here (which isn’t to say they aren’t worth an addition, it simply means those are typically the players you should expect to spend significant FAAB, or waiver priority, in order to acquire them). With that quick introduction into what we will be doing in this space for the rest of the season out of the way, let’s dig in!

QUICK COVID NOTE:

The league has renegotiated the standing COVID protocols with the NFLPA to reduce the quarantine timeline down to five days (as opposed to the previous 10), which includes both vaccinated and unvaccinated players. As such, players that hit the list on Monday or Tuesday of this week theoretically could return in time for Sunday’s games, assuming they are asymptomatic. Keep that additional layer in mind when targeting your Tuesday and Wednesday waiver additions for Championship week.

FORWARD-THINKING WAIVERS (Week 17)::

DARREL WILLIAMS (RB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS)/ DARE OGUNBOWALE (RB, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS):

These two are both Week 17, 2021 Championship round additions only, and are highly unlikely to provide any fantasy utility beyond this week (as in, for dynasty purposes), but both are likely to handle the lion’s share of each individual backfield this week after James Robinson suffered a torn Achilles and Clyde Edward-Helaire avoided a collarbone injury, which was eventually found out to be a bruised shoulder. The shoulder issue makes it possible for CEH to play this week, but it currently appears to be a longshot. Williams is likely to split time with Derrick Gore against the Bengals while Ogunbowale is likely to have the backfield largely to himself against the Patriots. Consider both moderate floor, moderate ceiling plays this week and viable depth additions as both blockers and insurance for any late-week COVID issues that may arise.

SAM DARNOLD (QB, CAROLINA PANTHERS):

Another emergency option or roster blocker for those of you playing in Championship week. I wouldn’t be looking to grab him as a viable starter against a Saints defense likely to get most of their defense back from the COVID list this week.

EQUANIMEOUS ST. BROWN (WR, GREEN BAY PACKERS):

Another roster blocker that would have a “rosterable ceiling” should Marqeuz Valdes-Scantling miss his second consecutive contest. EQSB played 81% of the offensive snaps last week and the Packers could lock up the NFC’s only bye with a win on Sunday Night Football.

MO ALIE-COX (TE, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS):

Cox saw an absurd 90% snap rate last week after Jack Doyle left after only two offensive snaps with knee and ankle injuries. Consider Cox a desperation play at tight end considering he saw only four targets on those snaps last week, and the Colts play a Raiders team that shouldn’t force increased pass volume.

KJ OSBORN / DEDE WESTBROOK (WR, MINNESOTA VIKINGS):

Thielen managed only 27 offensive snaps last week before leaving the game for good and should be considered questionable for a must-win game this week. Against the Packers, we can safely assume Kirk Cousins will be charged with increased pass attempts, paving a path to valuable volume for both Osborn and Westbrook, should Thielen miss.

In this weekly video, Xandamere reviews his roster-builds & process.

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Maximize Your Builds With OWS + FantasyLabs

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Week 16 Review

Lesson of the Week: Focus On Who You Are Playing

I had a solid week this week as far as my predictions and plays that I was on top of. While I didn’t “bink” anything, I was pleased with my process and how I went about things. The results, while not life-changing, were fine as I was slightly profitable and any week where you are playing a lot of lineups, and it is GPP focused, is a good week if you break even or make money due to the nature of the payouts. This week I put 50 entries in the “Special” on DraftKings, which is their $20 entry fee tournament that is basically the overflow they open up once the Milly Maker is going to fill. I go over my thought process on why I like this tournament in my +EV Primer course in the Marketplace, but the basic idea is it is more winnable and has a better structure while being at a good price point. I was able to cash on 30 of my entries (and finish with seven entries in the top 200 out of a field of 11,764 people) and make a little bit of money, but none of them had those top 0.1% outcomes that really get you paid. Here are three of my top lineups:

The reason I am sharing these lineups is to do a little exercise that will lead me to our lesson of the week. From the players in these lineups (who were all staples of my player pool), you could easily make the following lineup:

• Josh Allen
• Justin Jackson
• Joe Mixon
• Isaiah McKenzie
• Josh Palmer
• Justin Jefferson
• Mark Andrews
• Damien Harris
• TB D (this was my favorite defense besides PHI/KC, and I liked paying up this week with all of the value available)

That lineup used $49.7k in salary and would have finished with 247.76 points, which would have taken 5th place in the Special for $4,000 and would have won many other tournaments that I was in, including the $555k Power Sweep and the $100 Spy (both $100k to first). 

The reason I am laying all of this out and making a point of it is not to say “whoa is me” or to play the “what if” game, but rather to make a bigger point about player selection. Over the course of this season, JM and I have often discussed the importance of focusing on “who you are playing” rather than “who you are fading” or trying to cover every base. The crazy thing about that hypothetical lineup (that would have been pretty easy to get to from my player pool) is that it includes NO MEMBERS of the Bengals passing attack. The root of fear in getting too spread in your exposures or wanting to “cover all your bases” is usually the worry of not being on something that you “had to have” in order to win. Given the week that Burrow and company had passing against the Ravens, most would assume you HAD to be playing them to have a chance at first place. While we can get into the specifics about if it was good process to have none of the Bengals passing attack, the greater point is that I didn’t play them, they hit their 99th percentile outcome, and I STILL had a chance to win from my player pool being sharp and condensed.

The lesson of the week is “Focus On Who You Are Playing.” This is especially important heading into the final two weeks of the season as we have such large slates to end the year and a lot of teams in very good spots for Week 17. It will be critical to focus on building sharp lineups with high upside and not to get distracted by fear and wanting to cover every base. You will have to build lineups that don’t have anyone from some spots that look really good. It is important to remember that even if those spots hit, you can still win without them!! In the NFL, they have a saying that goes, “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” For DFS, the comparison would be “if you are playing everyone, you are playing no one.” 

Lineup Reviews

As outlined in my +EV Primer course (you can find in the Marketplace – either by itself or in the bundle with my player pool course), one of my approaches that keeps me from getting too high or low week-to-week is playing consistent contests and approaching them from a season-long perspective and using that to evaluate my play and ROI. This season, in this article, I will be tracking my progress on a weekly basis as I play the Single Entry (SE), 3-max, and 5-max tournaments in the $20 to $150 price range on DraftKings main slate for all 18 weeks. Rather than sweating or worrying about my ROI every week and “hoping to cash,” – my goal for the season is to maximize profit relative to that long-term investment total. The results of a given week are irrelevant.  

Each week I will review the best and worst of my 11 lineups from my “Roster Block” of SE/3-Max/5-Max. Below are this week’s results, and you can find more information about my process/theory for this in my Week 1 Process Points article

Best Lineup ($300k Red Zone, Single Entry, $50):

The “story” I was telling: Josh Johnson at min-price and single-digit ownership was very interesting to me. The basic idea of this lineup was “flipping the build” of what would be popular with all of the running back value on the slate – most lineups would have at least one and sometimes two of those cheap running backs, so by making a lineup paying up for two running backs I was instantly pretty unique. Mixon and Mattison were two guys that I thought had a good chance to top the slate due to their guaranteed workloads and good game environments. I also thought both were somewhat underpriced, as Mattison was at a $1,500 discount to what Dalvin Cook would have been priced at in the same spot, and Mixon had seen a price in the $8k range recently as well. The cherry on top was being able to correlate both of them with Josh Johnson and Cooper Kupp (the best play on the slate). I included Isaiah McKenzie, who I had a ton of and I went in-depth on during the Saturday night IC pod, which left me with money to spend up on defense and tight end (both plays I really liked) and then use another top play on the slate (Antonio Brown) and a high upside wide receiver who correlated with my QB and had seen a recent price drop.

Worst Lineup ($200k Three-Point Stance, 5-Max, $33):

The “story” I was telling: This lineup was basically just trying to attack the “Tom Brady double stack” at a huge discount. There was a lot of uncertainty around that passing offense, so if Brown and Johnson became primary targets and the Bucs scores came through the passing game, it would differentiate and separate while also leveraging off of a popular Ronald Jones. From there, I used DJ Moore as a talented, low-owned player with a high ceiling as my correlation, and the rest of the lineup was players I was very high on for the week.

Week 16 Results: Six of my ten lineups cashed this week. Nothing came together just right, but it was a profitable week. Looking ahead, a couple of things to be aware of heading into the last two weeks of the season:

• Past Results In Division Games – We saw this twice this week with the Cowboys and Bengals. Both teams dominated their games and stayed extremely aggressive deep into the game after it had been decided. It was uncharacteristic for each team, but after the game, it became clear what happened. Joe Burrow referenced how last year the Ravens had stayed aggressive late into games they were winning handily and that he didn’t feel bad about it. Someone made a comment on Twitter about the Cowboys staying so aggressive late and wondering why to which a Cowboys player posted a picture of Antonio Gibson scoring one of his three TD’s last Thanksgiving and waving at the defender, taunting him as he crossed the goal line. 
• Dead Teams – Detroit was extra cautious holding out D’Andre Swift this week. Washington looked completely uninspired as, by the time they played, they were pretty much eliminated from contention. Pittsburgh was clearly overmatched and looked uninspired quickly when it was clear they weren’t going to be able to compete with the Chiefs. Teams that have been bad all year will likely be extra cautious with top players, perhaps sitting/pulling them quicker than they would earlier in the season. Teams that had high expectations for the season and are realizing it is pretty much over have a lot more risk of complete failure than you would expect, especially in road games where they don’t have home fans to play for.
• Super Bowl Contenders – The Chiefs side of that game has something to teach us as well. The top teams in the league, once they have control of games against dead teams, will likely try to just get out alive, especially in games where there isn’t an ax to grind (see Bengals/Cowboys comments earlier). Once Pittsburgh was clearly not going to mount much of a fight, the Chiefs had no reason to put much on the plate of CEH or Tyreek. A lot more risk involved in players like that than we would think of in potential “smash spots” earlier in the season. 

Week 16 Investment: $765

Week 16 Winnings: $900

Estimated Yearly Investment:  $13,500 

Yearly Winnings: $6,265

Dwprix breaks down the top lineups in the OWS Bottom-Up Build challenge.

Week 16 Review

Each week, I’ll review the Bottom-Up Build contest. I’ll look at how the winners got to the top of the leaderboard, the game environments used, and how we can use this tournament to become better players. The purpose of the Bottom-Up Build is to roster players that you would feel comfortable rostering in a regular contest (solid price considered floor and high ceiling) so when you’re building for other contests, you don’t find yourself struggling with the last couple spots and jamming in someone that you’re not comfortable with. Studying these players may also put you on a game environment that others may be overlooking.

Overview

Rules :: Max $44k Salary (exceeding $44k salary will disqualify entry); must use OWS avatar to be eligible for prizes

Total Entries :: 116 (105 eligible since 11 were disqualified for not using an OWS avatar and/or went over salary and didn’t enter a lineup).

Prizes (Edge Points) :: 1st = 100 Edge // 2nd = 50 // 3rd = 25

Highest Owned Player :: Justin Jackson – 74.14% ($4,200)

Highest Owned Stack :: Nick Foles (19.83%) + Kole Kmet (31.03%) = 18.10% combined

See All The Entries :: Contest Link

Winners:

1st Place: hinobrown

2nd Place: baggervance4

3rd Place: skenny77

Analysis

Congrats to Hinobrown who took down the Bottom-Up tourney this week with the highest score all season, 210.4! They built around the Ravens/Bengals game double stacking Joe Burrow with Tee Higgins + Tyler Boyd and brought it back with Rashod Bateman. The matchup had the Ravens favored by seven with a total of 43.5 and had a ton of playoff implications, meaning both teams were going to give it their all. The total went well over, with 62 points, and ended up being the second-highest total on the slate. The Ravens are giving up the most pass yards in the league this season at 280.5 per game. Burrow torched them becoming just the 21st player to throw for over 500 yards in a game. His 525 yards broke the franchise record of 490 yards previously held by Boomer Esiason. Higgins (46.4) and Burrow (41.1) ended up being the top two highest-scoring players, not only on the slate but of any players in Week 16.  

The second and third-place finishers, Baggervance4 and Skenny77, also built around this game, both rostering the QB on the other side, Josh Johnson. Baggervance4 played Johnson with Higgins + CJ Uzomah and ran it back with Mark Andrews, while Skenny77 went with a naked Johnson but also played Higgins and Uzomah on the other side. Johnson was the bare minimum at $4k and was made the starting QB after Tyler Huntley was ruled out. 

Putting It Together

I’m really kicking myself for not playing Burrow this week. I’ve played him several times this season and had him in my only season-long team this year. As a result, I struggled in SE/3-max and had no shots at first place. I cashed zero of seven GPP lineups. 

That being said, I was able to win all of my double-ups with a score of 148.96. Unfortunately, I’ve been playing way less cash game volume than I was to start the season and in previous years. This week, I thought it was a viable strategy to pay all the way down at QB in cash with Josh Johnson (and apparently I was one of few based on his ownership in cash). Johnson needed just 14 points to pay off 3.5x. OWS gave him a median projection of 17 points and Fantasy Labs had him at 16. I thought to myself, “how many times does a $4k player fail at any other position and truly crush you in cash?” At only $4k as a QB, I thought he had one of the safest floors and had a great shot at a 4-5x score. It was also a week where we had extreme value at the running back position with Justin Jackson ($4.2k) and Ronald Jones ($5.1k), both being thrust into massive roles at low prices. James Robinson ($5.9k) and Alexander Mattison ($6.8k) were also slated for massive roles with Dalvin Cook and Carlos Hyde both inactive. Playing Johnson, Jackson, Jones, and Robinson allowed me to pay up for Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill. Both of these players have massive ceilings and it could be said that Kupp has the safest floor of any player this season, which we typically don’t say about a WR (now that I say that, he will have a dud next week!). Travis Kelce was ruled out which would usually mean more targets for Tyreek. Unfortunately, the Steelers were able to keep that from happening. Overall, I was disappointed in my GPP play but was able to win in my cash games, minimizing my losses on another COVID-stricken week.

On to the final week of the regular season! We will still be running the usual Bottom-Up tourney and will also have the TOC. I’ll try to post the link in Discord and on Twitter so you can follow along if you want!

Tournament of Champions

We are pumped to announce we will be having a Bottom-Up Build Tournament of Champions! The TOC will take place Week 18 and first place will win an OWS Inner Circle-For-Life ⭕️ membership with additional prizes to other qualifiers! All weekly first-place finishers will be eligible. Congrats to those who have already qualified: Sgmain18, Spastictoaster, Swench1919, Mikeall65, abright8, Andkristopher, Sklarma72, Aothomas42, Jaymz_10, Ericdc20, Ottoball, Sobe1, Bigdogkyle, Black-eyed_god, Jman805, and Hinobrown.

Week 17 :: Bottom-Up Tourney

Every week, you can click here for the newest contest link for the upcoming Bottom-Up Tourney.

Rules

1. Must be using an OWS Avatar to be eligible to win. This can be found on your profile page, or at the top of this week’s NFL Edge!
2. Single Entry // 200 Entries
3. Max $44k Salary (exceeding $44k will automatically disqualify your entry)
4. Prizes (Edge Points) :: 1st = 100 / 2nd = 50 // 3rd = 25
5. Winners please email support@oneweekseason.com with your DK Screenname

Larejo123 takes a look at some of the overlooked plays and “missed opportunities” from the week behind us, identifying the thought processes and approaches that could have led us to those plays.

OWS Fam! What a season this has been, it’s mind-boggling to me that we’re already making our way into Week 17, but man, this has been a fun ride. This is now the 16th installment of Missed Opportunities, and in an effort to keep things fresh, I’m dropping some new thoughts here of ways to attack GPPs, which at least from my perspective, I have rarely considered as starting points for my rosters.

Tournament lineups always start with a team or game stack. It’s the first question you should ask yourself in building these lineups: which game environment will I target and which offense (QB) will I start my builds with? A typical approach may look something like this: identify the high Vegas projected game over/unders, pick one offense in that game, and then check prices on the site you play on to see how a QB-WR fits in pricing-wise. Then we can add another pass-catcher (if the QB is more of a traditional pocket-passer), or we can pull in the RB from the same team, or we can leave as-is. And just like that, two, three, four roster spots are filled, and you’re on your way. The next typical questions that arise are on bring-backs in the same game, or we could start digging into floating plays (one-offs from other games), mini-stacks (two opposing players from a different game), and so on. 

For purposes of this Week 16 reflection, I want to hone in on the Cincinnati Bengals, and how and why we should have ended up on their stacks. A couple of high-level concepts first, then diving into some additional points before wrapping up. As anyone who played the Week 16 Main Slate knows, a Joe Burrow stack was the only way to take down a tournament this week. And fortunately for you and your OWS subscription, landing on this stack was covered all over OWS this past weekend (Papy’s NFL Edge, JM’s DFS Interpretation + Player Grid, all over The Oracle with JM, Xandamere, Hilow, Sonic, Majesstik, and Mike – literally everybody but me!), and the question in hindsight is, why?

Stacking offenses vs. top rush (pass-funnel) DVOA teams

The term pass-funnel has gained a ton of popularity over the last five seasons or so, with teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens all seemingly ranking near the top of the league in opponent pass play rates, which makes their opponents a bit more one-dimensional and simplifies game plans. It also, however, increases the number of plays run by their opponents (and themselves), so when you have a stud QB in these games, we get some impressive box scores. I have not yet trained my mind to start looking here for game stacks to emerge, but there are really a few factors that directly influence pass play rate, particularly, a good run defense and playing with a lead.

Here’s a brief table, sorted by top rushing defense DVOA alongside opponent pass-play rate ranking:

Team	Rushing Defense DVOA	Opponent Pass-Play Rate
Saints	1st	12th
Colts	2nd	9th
Ravens	3rd	4th
Niners	4th	19th
Patriots	5th	23rd
Rams	6th	7th
Cardinals	7th	13th
Bucs	8th	1st
Bills	9th	22nd
Bengals	10th	3rd

From this list, five of the top ten teams with the best rushing defenses, also face the highest percentage of pass plays. I could go deeper by looking at actual offensive plays per game counts, but you get the point. While we know about the Ravens decimated secondary at this point, and while that likely factored into the Bengals utilizing a heavy pass-play rate this week, we also knew the Ravens were facing a top-five pass-play rate already in 2021, and they ranked 3rd in opponent rushing DVOA. Two checks for their defense in the category of forget the Vegas totals, and target the Bengals because they will be forced to pass.

The last point to think about in digesting this table is the success rate of these teams’ running games. The Colts, Saints, Patriots, and 49ers all rank in the top six of team rushing rates in 2021. So, when it all boils down, it makes perfect sense why we haven’t seen too many shootouts involving these teams. They have great rushing defenses, and they like to run the ball themselves, slowing the game down and limiting total plays. When we start looking at games to attack in Week 17, start with these top rushing defenses and dig into the top opponent pass play rates, and off we go (or, just read the NFL Edge and save time, as the OWS team always covers these metrics!).

The Runners and The Slingers (QB’s who win a Milly)

This could be the name of a new Rock group (heck, I mean you can literally name yourself or your band anything these days if you’re in music), but more importantly, the runners and the slingers are the types of QBs who win one million dollars. Let me explain . . . (honorable third mention to straight value QBs)

List of QBs who have won the DK Million the last eight weeks (in reverse order from most recent): Joe Burrow, Tyler Huntley, Josh Allen, Gardner Minshew, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert. Can we fit these QBs into any categories? Why yes, yes we can. Let me introduce:

The Runners: Cam Newton, Tyler Huntley, and Josh Allen.

The Slingers: Joe Burrow, Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert (and also Josh Allen).

Hi, Gardner Minshew, you were our best value QB over this time span. To further explain, we have QBs we know will run the ball and scramble, giving us a healthy floor in addition to the upside they can achieve throwing the football. On the slinging side, we want QBs who throw, throw, throw, but also throw the ball downfield. We have Herbert averaging 38 attempts per game (3rd), with Josh Allen at 37 (4th) and Stafford at 35 (11th). And while Joe Burrow is not on this list, as he’s had too many games below 30 pass attempts this season, he leads the league in yards per attempt at 8.7 this season. 

It’s Week 17, and we need to simplify. And in order to do this, when we pick our QBs, we can look for labels or categories to place them in. Who are your runners? Who are your slingers? Who are the obvious values? The most difficult category to identify here is the slingers, but we want high pass attempts and high average depths of target. The Bengals stack wasn’t the only play you needed to win a tournament on Sunday but they provided an excellent starting point. So, after we sort through the COVID news for this upcoming Week 17, consider these two points as a great place to start. Stack against good rush defenses and find your QB runners or slingers.

Good luck the rest of the season, fam!

First of all, big congrats to our very own Papy324, who finished 6th in DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker and 2nd in the Flea Flicker (amongst other things, I’m sure!). It must be an awesome feeling to back up his own words in One Week Season’s NFL Edge write-ups with a lineup that rockets up the leaderboards. Hell yeah, man. 

Here’s his amazing roster:

The Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins stack with Mark Andrews coming back was a must this week. I also loved the low-owned, same-game, RB combination of Devin Singletary and Damien Harris. Something tells me that our pal, Hilow is particularly fond of this play. OWS has been crushing as the year comes to a close. Papy represented us well!

This week I’m going to examine the rosters of a DFS player who was successful using an approach that may or may not differ from yours and once again illustrate a different way to the same place, with multiple lineups sweating the top of the tournament. 

billsfan777 used a tight player pool of 51 and managed to land cash a whopping 145 of his 150 rosters. How the eff did he manage that?

Ok then, that certainly explains that. How sick must billsfan777 feel? He literally locked a player that threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns, and he couldn’t get a lineup past 51st place. They placed 18 lineups in the top 1,000, but it was a lack of a particular Ravens bring-back that proved costly.  

Only five rosters with Mark Andrews, and sadly three of those featured James Robinson and his 1st quarter Achilles injury. 

There was no thought of limiting cumulative ownership by billsfan777. In fact, not a single lineup landed below the 125% threshold. Their totals ranged from 130.6% all the way up to the chalkiest at 204.7%. They had one lineup that was duplicated 11 times and another six times. If you like the chalk…overweight the damn chalk! 

In terms of stacking, billsfan777 opted for a skinny stack of QB/WR-only in 105 of the 150 lineups (70%). The five Mark Andrews lineups provided the only semblance of a bring-back, as there was not a Marquise Brown nor a Rashad Bateman to be found. 

At the running back position, billsfan777’s tight pool proved to be a double-edged sword. 

The uber-aggressive stance on Justin Jackson certainly paid off, while the 45.33% James Robinson exposure proved costly due to injury-induced bad luck. The 72% Ronald Jones was actually just as costly on a high-scoring week like this one. 16.1 points from the running back position looks “fine” but ultimately was a tournament death knell from an opportunity cost standpoint. Using a RB slot on a player that only managed to 3x his salary thwarted the possibility of landing on a Joe Mixon (4.56x), Damien Harris (5.59x), or Rex Burkhead (7.09x). 

Obviously, this is all based on hindsight (essentially the premise of this article), but perhaps if taking the aggressive stance at QB, it would have been prudent to spread the RB allocations a little. Rostering chalk RB-only left these awesome Joe Burrow/Tee Higgins stacks vulnerable to being leveraged by similar lineups that incorporated some lower-owned elements. 

A similar issue occurred at WR with, of all people, Cooper Kupp. His 24.3 points provided a nice floor, but for tournaments, it only amounted to 2.67x, so rostering Kupp put a bit of pressure on lineups to find ceilings in some much cheaper places. This week, guys like Burkhead and Isaiah McKenzie provided this. It is just tough to land these cheaper guys who had massive days into the same roster. 

Here are billsfan777 WR allocations: 

My hindsight-driven observations should in no way subtract from the awesomeness of billsfan777’s play in Week 16. Ballsy as hell and super profitable. They “only” managed to 3x their investment in this particular tournament but also submitted another 450 entries and took down the Wildcat, Three Point Stance, and several others en route to a massive $471,169.06 in winnings on the week. The winning lineup in these tournaments was somehow not entered into the Milly and would have finished in 3rd place for an additional 40K. Holy shit. Have yourself a day, billsfan777! Well. Fucking. Done. 

The Buffalo Bills also managed to bitch slap my Patriots this week so let me sincerely say to you and all Bills fans…

Up yours. 

Were you ballsy enough in Week 16? Did you take a real stand on the players you felt best about? Did you mix in enough low-owned plays with your chalk? 

I had a decent sweat in the Milly this week. I got as high as 17th before running out of steam when Michael carter failed to convert on his final five goal-line touches. But I don’t feel like I played as well as I could have. In my Player Pool article, I preached about time allocation and making sure to take a step back and look at the slate holistically. Sadly, my takeaway from this week was that I simply did not take my own advice. I ran out of time and didn’t get my allocations exactly where I wanted them. This is why we review. This is how we improve. Let’s put it all together for a glorious Week 17. 

See you…you know where.

LFG!

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