Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Patriots are in a good place as far as injuries are concerned, with only LBs Harold Landry (knee) and Marte Mapu (hip) listed as ‘DNP’s Wednesday. Landry continues to receive practices off as he tends to a lingering knee issue that he has played through for the better part of the last month.
• The same can not be said of the Broncos, with the biggest influence to their game plan here clearly the absence of QB Bo Nix. Nix broke a bone in his ankle on a kneel down to reposition the football for the game-winning field goal attempt in the Divisional Round and will miss the remainder of the postseason run after undergoing surgery early this week. Jarrett Stidham will start the Conference Championship for the Broncos.
• WR Mack Hollins is reportedly set to practice Thursday and could find himself activated from IR by the weekend.
• WRs Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) were limited on Wednesday for the Broncos, with the bigger concern being Bryant after a second concussion in the Divisional Round.
• RB J.K. Dobbins got in a limited session Wednesday as he attempts to return from an extended absence due to a foot injury. It was his first practice since November.
• As is normally the case this time of year, both defenses rank in the top six in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per game. 

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have trailed for all of 2:30 through their first two postseason games, during which time quarterback Drake Maye has averaged only 28 pass attempts per game. The team now gets another break as they face off against a Broncos team without its starting quarterback after the injury to Nix at the tail end of their win last weekend. And it’s not like they’ve faced walkover opponents, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. On the contrary, the Patriots beat the Chargers (eighth in points allowed per game at 19.8 and seventh in yards allowed per game at 290.6) and the Texans (second in points allowed per game and first in yards allowed per game at 271.9), making the fact that they’re now facing off against another top-five defense less of an issue. The Patriots have been one of the more efficient offenses in the league this season, ranking first in yards per pass attempt and fifth in points per game. Which is to say, we should expect New England to find some level of offensive success, matchup be damned. Furthermore, the Patriots deploy a “bully ball” rushing game and are capable of moving the ball efficiently over the short areas of the field through the air as an extension of the run, two things that the Broncos have either not been overly tested against or have ceded grades well below their seasonal average throughout the season. Finally, the homefield advantage for the Broncos is less of an issue for the Patriots, considering they ranked second in the league in road scoring during the regular season (behind only the Rams). From a macro perspective, the recent defensive trends we’ve seen out of New England hold true for the 2025 version of the team. They want to force opponents to march the field while limiting splash plays and cracking down in the red zone, really coming on strong to end the season while allowing a touchdown on only 22.22% of opposing red-zone trips in their previous three games, playoffs included.

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The backfield has largely been a product of their opponents considering the poor pass-blocking abilities of rookie TreVeyon Henderson, meaning incumbent starter Rhamondre Stevenson typically sees his involvement in the offense grow against opponents with above-average pass rushes. That was the case against both the Chargers and Texans and should remain the case against a Broncos team that led the league in sacks this year. Stevenson played 62% and 63% of the team’s offensive snaps in their two playoff games while handling 14 and 20 opportunities (10 and 14 for Henderson), giving us a solid baseline expectation for the Conference Championship. That also includes four targets in each game to the three total targets for Henderson. The pure rushing matchup is poor on the ground against a Denver defense holding opposing backfields to 4.0 yards per carry, 96.2 rush yards per game (fourth), and the fewest fantasy points per game (17.3) this season.

The Patriots have refused to move away from a five-man rotation at wide receiver, almost regardless of injuries, matchup, or situation this season. That has held true through their first two postseason games, as the absence of Hollins allowed undrafted free agent rookie Efton Chism to to remain involved in the offense. Hollins returned to the practice field Thursday after having his practice window opened earlier in the week, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll prove healthy enough to be active come Sunday. Expect Chism to be the odd man out on game day should Hollins return or remain involved in a complementary role should he miss. The route-participation hierarchy during their two playoff games so far goes as follows: Diggs (82.2%), Hunter Henry (78.1%), Kayshon Boutte (75.3%), DeMario Douglas (47.9%), Austin Hooper (30.1%), Kyle Williams (30.1%), and Chism (8.2%). I would expect Hollins to be somewhere in the range of Hooper, Williams, and Chism considering the missed time, should he return. Boutte, Williams, and Hollins are really perimeter-only players while Douglas is really a slot-only player, leaving Diggs in a hybrid role all over the formation. That gives Diggs the best opportunity to avoid lockdown coverage from Pat Surtain on most of his snaps considering Surtain rarely travels into the slot. The Broncos also play a good deal of man coverage (fourth-ranked 36.1% during the regular season), against which it was all Diggs (0.27 TPRR, 2.71 YPRR, and 0.63 FP/RR) and Douglas (0.25 TPRR, 4.07 YPRR, and 0.81 FP/RR) for the Patriots this year. 

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The only ‘DNP’ on Thursday from the Rams was OLB Byron Young.
• Seattle had three tackles listed as ‘DNP’s on both Wednesday and Thursday, the biggest of which is left tackle Charles Cross. Cross missed the final three games of the regular season with a hamstring injury, returned in the Divisional Round, then injured his foot in the third quarter and missed the rest of the game.
• RB Zach Charbonnet saw his season end in the Divisional Round after tearing his ACL. George Holani was activated from IR this week.
• These two teams split their season series, the first going to the Seahawks in a 38-37 shootout and the second going to the Rams in a 21-19, tightly contested divisional matchup.
• One of the key components of this matchup for the Rams will be pressure in the backfield. They were able to generate the league’s fourth-highest pressure rate while blitzing at the second-lowest frequency in the regular season.
• The Rams have run 72 or more offensive plays in five of their previous six contests, playoffs included. 

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are the only team playing in either Conference Championship to not rank in the top six in both total defense and points per game allowed this season. They made up for that in the regular season by leading the league in points per game at 30.1, also leading the league in road scoring at 31.0 points per game. They likely know that they’re going to have to remain aggressive this weekend to find their way back into the Super Bowl. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league during the regular season (17.7%) while generating pressure organically at the fourth-highest rate (26.3%). Their ability to generate pressure in the backfield will likely be one of the primary decision points in this matchup, as Sam Darnold really struggled when under pressure this season, to the tune of a 53.6% completion rate, 9-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and robust 18.4% off-target throw rate, to include a modest 0.43 fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB). Compare that to his 72.7% completion rate, 11.4% off-target throw rate, and 0.52 FP/DB when kept clean, and it is clear how important that aspect of this matchup is to the Rams. Offensively, expect the same concepts and functions of Sean McVay’s forward-thinking offense we have seen all season, with an emphasis on getting players in space against zone and in exploitable matchups against man.

The Los Angeles backfield has remained in a clear “lead back and change-of-pace back” setup into the postseason, with Kyren Williams handling 15 and 26 opportunities on 63% of the team’s offensive snaps in their first two playoff games, to the 13 and six opportunities on 37% of the team’s offensive snaps of Blake Corum. I don’t see any indication pointing at a change in that setup against a Seahawks defense holding opposing backfields to the fewest yards per carry (3.7) and third-fewest fantasy points per game (19.1). One aspect of the matchup that could give Williams an inflated floor is the fact that the Seahawks filtered the most targets (127, or 7.5 per game) and allowed the most receptions (97, or 5.7 per game) to opposing backfields this season. Kyren saw five or more targets in three of his previous five games and has a 10-target game on his ledger this year.

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McVay made the decision to hold Tutu Atwell inactive for their Divisional Round win over the Bears, something that significantly influenced the team’s rotation at wide receiver. They effectively went from a five-man rotation to a four-man rotation while playing Xavier Smith on only five offensive snaps, leaving both Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield to absorb additional snaps and routes behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua now has a nine-game streak with nine or more targets and has clear upside to hit the 15+ range, something we can’t say about any other receiver on this slate. Furthermore, his most explosive game of the season came in the Week 16 meeting between these two teams. Yes, Adams missed that game, but it serves to highlight his true ceiling in this spot. Adams led the league in receiving touchdowns in the regular season, keeping his relative ceiling intact despite the more difficult matchup on paper. Speaking of the matchup, the Seahawks are a zone-base and two-high-base defense, against which it was actually Adams that led the team in targets per route run (TPRR) (0.34 to the 0.31 of Nacua) and fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.77 to the 0.65 of Nacua), followed by the two primary tight ends (Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee). 

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::