XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

At long last, the NFL season begins and it kicks off with the Cowboys visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. This game has a healthy 47.5 total with Philly favored by 7.5 (an important line when it’s over a touchdown). As has become a tradition, I will begin this article as I always do in Week 1: we know very, very little about how this season is going to play out. There are always teams that surprise us every year in both good and bad ways, and so while I’m going to write this from the perspective of “what’s most likely to happen,” just recognize that what’s most likely is less likely in Week 1 than it will be in later weeks. What this means is that if you have a strong take on how a game will play out and it’s different from the norm/how the field is seeing it, early in the season is the best time to take stands on those takes. Good luck!

Philadelphia

We’ll start with the Eagles and their backfield as Saquon Barkley returns after an absolutely monstrous season in which he rushed for 2005 yards (!), carrying the ball a whopping 345 times and averaging . . . AVERAGING 125 yards per game on the ground. He added another 33 catches for 278 yards through the air and scored 15 total touchdowns. He was a beast, and he played for one of the league’s best offenses in a clear 3-down bell cow role (even if his receiving role was smaller than we’ve seen in the past for him, with fewer catches than any full or nearly full season he’s played so far in the NFL). Now for the downside: Saquon passed the 1,500 career carry mark last season. That’s a LOT in running back terms. He’s 28 years old. It’s very rare to see 28-year-old running backs with 1,500+ carries on them continue to play at an elite level. Can Saquon still be elite? Of course he can. And the offensive environment he’s in is an elite one as well. But don’t be surprised if we see the dreaded running back cliff arrive this season. There’s no way we’ll be able to predict exactly when it hits, but Father Time is undefeated. I hate saying negative stuff about such an amazing player, but it’s going to happen at some point. Kenneth Gainwell is gone, so Will Shipley should be in the undisputed RB2 role (AJ Dillon has been really bad and pretty sure he’s only around as a depth/emergency piece). Last year, we saw Gainwell handle only a few touches per game, making Shipley largely uninteresting except for two things. First, he’s dirt cheap at $2k (Gainwell was usually $3k – $4k), putting him in the price range where it’s feasible that five carries and a catch or two result in enough yardage to make him relevant. Second, the Eagles aren’t idiots, and it’s possible they decide to pull back a bit on how they used Saquon last year – at least early in the season – to try and make sure he’s fresh for their inevitable playoff run. Is that the likeliest scenario? Probably not, as they didn’t really do it last year, but it’s at least a possibility, and if you want to think Shipley gets more like 10-12 touches than 5-7 touches, I think that’s a reasonable position to take. 

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In the passing game, the Eagles top wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, are both nursing Q tags, but everything indicates they should play without restrictions. Also relevant to their outlooks is that Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys top cornerback, appears on the wrong side of a questionable tag. Diggs avoided the PUP list as he’s coming back from last year’s season-ending knee injury, but it looks unlikely he’s ready to go just yet. The matchup is already good and Diggs’ absence would just make it better. We’ve also heard rumblings out of camp about the Eagles tweaking their offense to not be quite so run-heavy, which, if that holds true, would (obviously) be good for Eagles pass catchers (and bad for Saquon). It’s hard to put a lot of trust in coachspeak during camps, but it’s worth noting that all of the Eagles pass catchers are relatively inexpensive. A couple of years ago, it looked like Brown and Smith were 1A/1B with little room between them, but in the last two seasons, we’ve seen daylight between them with Brown clearly looking like the alpha. Over the past two years, when they’ve shared the field Brown has led in target volume, catches, yards, and also by a long margin, yards per reception. Brown is not only seeing more targets, but the targets he’s seeing are also more valuable. Smith is always a fine play, but when they’re priced just $1k apart, I’m going to lean Brown’s direction, especially with Dallas missing their top corner, who would be likely to shadow Brown were he healthy. Philly got Jahan Dotson to be their WR3 last year, but we’ve seen how the WR3 role is largely ignored in this offense. Outside of a Week 18 smash when the main guys sat, Dotson saw a grand total of just 22 targets the entire season. Yep, under two per game on average. You’re really hoping for a fluky touchdown to make him pay off. 

At tight end, Dallas Goedert is super talented but has had a tough time producing in this offensive scheme when everyone else is healthy. Goedert had one explosion game last year but otherwise did not exceed 15 Draftkings points once last season and only reached 10 on four occasions. He’s also been used more between the chains, with just three targets inside the 10 yard line last year. Goedert is one of the guys specifically talking about a bigger role in the offense – that’s part of the whole “bigger passing game” stuff I mentioned earlier – but it’s kind of hard to buy it until I’ve seen it, and Goedert’s name brand tends to attract ownership in Showdowns no matter what. I’m not that excited to play him but will of course have exposure in MME – probably under the field, though. TE2 Grant Calcaterra makes for a viable punt option, as while most of his games were mediocre, he had four games last year that would have paid off his salary. He actually saw more regular season targets than Dotson despite being on the field far less often. Is he a great play? No, but he’s a reasonable one. 

Dallas

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Showdown aficionados have been loving NFL scheduling the last couple of seasons, as with the league’s quest for even more TV time, they’ve been giving us more island games. This Friday, we get the Chiefs vs the Chargers in Brazil for a 45.5 total game with Kansas City favored by a field goal. Last season, the Chiefs and Chargers were both middling offenses (right around 23 points scored per game) but elite defenses (Chargers allowed 18.5 points per game, 2nd fewest in the NFL, while the Chiefs allowed 20.5, 6th fewest). But, the Chargers are a VERY different team on the defensive side and the Chiefs are fairly different as well, adding uncertainty both to this game and to our general perceptions of these teams from last year. Our AFC West preview covers this in more depth, but the short version here is that the Chargers look likely to be weaker on defense and the Chiefs continue to look more middling on offense versus the elite offensive powerhouse that we became used to out of Kansas City a few years back.  

Kansas City

The backfield is Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt with Elijah Mitchell likely in an emergency-only role. When Hunt and Pacheco were both healthy in the second half of last season, we actually saw Hunt lead the way (though Pacheco kind of seemed like he was never back to full health, so that could play into things). I think what was happening here was largely about pass protection. Hunt is a strong pass protector, while Pacheco is a shakier one. The Chiefs struggled in pass protection for much of last year, and their offensive line looks even weaker this season, so if Pacheco continues to be a poor pass protector, that could lead to more Hunt. But that said, I have to imagine the Chiefs do want Pacheco to be the guy. Hunt is 30 years old and ran for under 4 yards per carry last year and it’s just tough to build a strong run game off of him. My expectation is this: Pacheco is the lead back, but if the Chargers pass rush is getting to Mahomes, we could see that result in more Hunt playing time. Finally, it’s also worth noting that we rarely saw either back exceed a 50% snap count last season when playing together, so we could be looking at relatively low upside either way. Pacheco at $7,600 is cheap for a lead back if he is indeed a lead back, but I’d actually prefer to take the risk on Hunt at $3,600 – there just seems to be more per-dollar upside at his bargain basement price. 

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In the passing game, with Rashee Rice suspended, we should see Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and possibly Jason Brownlee or Nikko Remigio in a very small role (look who’s on the active roster on game day). The Chiefs have consistently run deep at wide receiver with six different wideouts often seeing the field. Xavier Worthy really started showing tremendous improvement towards the end of the last season.  From Week 15 through the playoffs, he played in six games and put up a per-game pace of 6.6/79.5/.83 line on 8.6 targets per game. That’s really good. And it came against some overall above-average defenses. With Rice suspended and Travis Kelce on the tail end of his career, I’m very interested in Worthy at a bargain price of $9k. His salary looks to be based more on his complete body of work last season rather than the second half, when we saw real, sustained improvement from the young wideout. Brown and Smith-Schuster are harder to get excited about. JuJu had one game of 130 yards on 8 targets last year but otherwise never saw more than 3 targets in a game, while Brown only played in five games, and despite significant target volume failed to eclipse 50 receiving yards once. That could be due to health and/or rust, as Brown didn’t make his season debut until Week 16, and he’s been a productive receiver in fairly recent history, so I’ll lean his way over JuJu, but in this offense, all the secondary wide receivers are pretty volatile options. Thornton was signed as a potential depth piece, but with rookie Jalen Royals injured, he’ll be on the roster and he’s expected to have at least some kind of role, including possibly returning kicks; he’s a very volatile dart throw but can definitely be in player pools. 

At tight end, Travis Kelce is definitely somewhere near the end of his career. Last season, he only exceeded 100 yards twice and scored just 4 touchdowns. He can still catch the ball and he’s a very smart football player, but he’s no longer the elite athlete who can go out there and win routes and contested catches consistently. He’s a viable play in this one – he should still see volume and generally speaking the best time to play older guys is early in the season when they’re at their freshest – but at a similar price I lean Worthy’s way. Noah Gray also looks like a really strong value play at just $1,600. Gray saw more targets per game last year than JuJu and did more with them (including a pair of 2 touchdown games). He’s cheap enough that he can put up a usable score without a touchdown, but if he does find the end zone, he’s likely to be a necessary piece in optimal lineups. Playing alongside an aging Kelce, it’s also feasible that we see his role grow at Kelce’s expense. 

Los Angeles

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Al Golden takes over for the departing Lou Anarumo. He coached the Fighting Irish last season.
• Zac Taylor’s offense continues to be predicated on getting his players in one-on-one situations as opposed to generating space for them. On film, this looks like a reliance on his skill position players instead of maximizing their upside.
• The Bengals should be forced to continue a “we have to score more points than our opponent” offensive mentality based on their defensive coordinator hire and preseason results.
• Jim Schwartz’s Cleveland defense is one of the most aggressive units in the league, one that has achieved great success against Taylor’s more straight-up offense.
• The field isn’t likely to realize just how good Schwartz has been against the Bengals throughout his career with the Browns.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

We kind of know what we’re getting with the Cincinnati offense, so we’ll spend some additional time on what to expect from the Bengals’ defense. Al Golden spent the previous four seasons with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, where he served as their defensive coordinator. His collegiate defenses were known for their malleability, playing varied rates of man versus zone and typically utilizing 4-3 and 4-2-5 nickel fronts. Last season, Golden’s defense was near the top of the collegiate ranks in man coverage, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we see more man from the Bengals this season. We saw a ton of man coverage out of his unit in the preseason, and the results were not promising. He particularly got destroyed on the ground by the Eagles and Commanders, two teams that utilized elevated rates of man/gap concepts in the preseason. This linebacker unit also looks poised to struggle. Logan Wilson leads the league in interceptions amongst linebackers since 2020, but has struggled against the run and in coverage on bigger bodies like tight ends, while Demetrius Knight is a second-round rookie who looked overmatched in preseason. I expect the base to run out of 4-2-5 nickel with an emphasis on man coverage and aggression, two things that can effectively make weekly performance stick to the extremes. In other words, I think we see the Cincinnati defense return outlier performances to each extreme throughout the season. We’ll probably see some games where they look really good – where everything falls into place – and we’ll probably see games where they look absolutely atrocious.

Zac Taylor’s offense is not flashy. There are not a lot of bells and whistles. It is simplified, direct, and plays more face-up. We see a lot of stuff designed to get his top playmakers in one-on-one situations as opposed to other teams around the league that aim to create space for their top playmakers. I guess he’s lucky he has Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown, eh? We’re going to see blowup games out of this team because of their pass-first mentality and elite talent, but I would argue Taylor is far from maximizing the talent he has on the field. The offense runs from heavy rates of shotgun, effectively making a system that relies on the pass game to generate lighter boxes to run. The departure of Zack Moss leaves third-year running back Chase Brown as the clear lead dog in this backfield. He is likely to cede modest work to Samaje Perine for package snaps, while rookie sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks is on hand as a handcuff. The Browns struggled against the run a season ago but generated the highest pressure rate in the league at 39.3%. View this matchup as a middling spot on the ground, with the caveat that he’ll be running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.

Joe Burrow is one of the league’s top quarterbacks. His football IQ is off the charts, his arm strength is borderline elite, his pocket presence is amongst the best in the league, and he brings a level of mobility that is just enough to extend plays behind an up-and-down offensive line. Ja’Marr Chase is a top-two-or-three wide receiver in the league. Tee Higgins is an elite X-type receiver. Yea, this team has the weapons. That said, they could find themselves under constant pressure against Jim Schwartz’s defense, one that is built to maximize pressure in the backfield. That is particularly egregious considering the state of this offensive line, which returns three starters in addition to two new guards. I expect the Bengals to counter with a ball-out-quick mentality, most likely directed towards Chase all over the formation. Expect Chase to be the primary motion man to diagnose coverages, which, knowing Schwartz’s tendencies, is likely to involve elevated rates of man coverage (fourth-ranked 39.6% in 2024). That also included the second-most single-high alignment a season ago at 65.5%. At least to start the season, and after their preseason showing, I expect Taylor and the Bengals to continue in a “we have to score more points than our opponent” mentality, meaning they should keep the aggression on throughout.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The two massive additions to this Giants team this offseason were QB Russell Wilson and rookie OLB Abdul Carter.
• The Commanders traded RB Brian Robinson to the 49ers, leaving Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Chris Rodriguez as the players most likely to contribute to the backfield. Jeremy Nichols also remains on the roster.
• Washington added veteran DE Von Miller this offseason and drafted CB Trey Amos in the second round, in addition to trading for WR Deebo Samuel.
• The Commanders should be able to control the trajectory of this game via sustained drives and increased time of possession. WR Terry McLaurin missed most of camp and all of preseason as he sought a new contract, eventually signing an extension to remain with the team.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Russell Wilson theoretically gives the Giants a sense of stability under center that they truly haven’t had for some time. Daniel Jones has a career 70-to-47 TD:INT ratio and just 14,582 yards through six professional seasons, which works out to about 2,430 yards per season passing. Jones was also borderline incapable of delivering a quality deep ball, whereas Wilson has remained such an integral part of the league for so long because of his deep ball. Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and head coach Brian Daboll enter their fourth season together with the Giants, but their seats have to be feeling quite hot currently. I would not be surprised to see ownership make some in-season changes amongst the brass if the Giants flounder out of the gates. General manager Joe Schoen also joins that discussion. In other words, I view this coaching staff as coaching for their collective jobs this season. Daboll and Kafka’s offense has been characterized by 11-personnel alignments, an outside zone running scheme, and layered dagger, smash, and dig routes underneath to spring deep passing. On the other side of the ball, Abdul Carter is going to be a problem in this league for a long time. His freakish athleticism, strong base, and lightning quickness should work well in conjunction with an aggressive secondary that played elevated rates of single-high a season ago (64.6%). The Giants understandably went much more zone-heavy in the two meetings with the Commanders last season, playing zone at a 69.8% frequency and single-high at a 54.0% frequency. I would expect more of the same here.

Tyrone Tracy took over this backfield from Week 5 on last season, which coincided with an injury to Devin Singletary. What holds him back the most is a combination of previous tendencies and the addition of rookie Cam Skattebo. First off, Tracy was responsible for only 33.3% of the carries inside the five during his 13-game stretch as the unquestioned lead back, leading to a rather pedestrian 13.2 expected fantasy points per game during that timeframe. Skattebo was theoretically brought in to serve as the clear passing down back and goal line back, which further caps Tracy’s ceiling. That said, Skattebo missed multiple weeks of camp while dealing with a hamstring injury, one that he aggravated once already. Even so, Singletary is still with the team, and I expect him to contribute in a complementary role. All of that to say, we’re likely looking at a three-headed timeshare with Tracy in the early-down role, Singletary in the change of pace role, and Skattebo in a clearly defined pass down plus goal line role. That leaves very little room for ceiling to develop from any of the three, regardless of the matchup against a Commanders defense that was much more stout against the pass than the run a season ago.

The pass game remains a “Malik Nabers and then everyone else” affair after the Giants returned all primary skill position players from last year. They integrated Wan’Dale Robinson into the offensive structure with heavy rates of short area routes, mostly designed to give the opposing defense something to account for rather than generate any meaningful upside for Robinson. Darius Slayton continues to run heavy rates of deep routes on the perimeter, while second-year tight end Theo Johnson should see his snap rate increase based on the emphasis on 11-personnel. Slayton carries a theoretical ceiling, one that is likelier to hit on a weekly basis, considering the strengths of Wilson. All of that to say, this offense is heavily designed to generate space for Nabers, and we shouldn’t expect much to change considering the state of this roster.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY HILOW >>

• The Cardinals have a relatively clean bill of health as they enter the 2025 regular season.
• The Arizona brass remains intact, as do most of the key personnel. Not a ton of changes with this franchise for the new season.
• Spencer Rattler “won” the starting quarterback gig in New Orleans.
• The Saints cleaned house in the coaching ranks, bringing in Kellen Moore at HC, Doug Nussmeier at OC, and Brandon Staley at DC.
• This game could shock people, particularly in survivor pools. I would have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the Cardinals favored by a touchdown on the road.
• Likeliest scenario has this game playing to a true slugfest.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

First off, color me skeptical that we see any meaningful change to the way the Cardinals did business in 2024. I think we see the same elevated run-game scheme and muted pass-game scheme that we grew accustomed to a season ago. I also don’t think we see Kyler Murray make any meaningful improvements to his game after countless seasons of the industry expecting him to take a drastic step forward. That leaves this team with a focus on defense handed down from head coach Jonathan Gannon, and an offense that is best suited to take advantage of opponents that allow them to remain close in games and remain as run-balanced as possible. The good news for them is that their opponent in Week 1 is one such adversary. What better way for the Cardinals to start the season than against a team with innumerable offseason changes that is starting Rattler under center?

A total of 69.5% of James Conner’s rush attempts last season came behind man/gap concepts, behind which he averaged 4.93 yards per carry. That’s an interesting revelation considering the matchup against Brandon Staley’s new-look New Orleans defense. Staley, a Vic Fangio understudy, utilizes a tight front, gap-and-a-half base concept that has notoriously been stout against the run, particularly against man/gap concepts. His hybrid 3-4, 4-3 base also shows varying pre-snap looks, allowing versatility in the second level amongst linebackers and safeties. While it could take some time to see this defense perform at peak levels, their offseason hire at defensive coordinator should have this defense looking much better this season. I’m not sure I fully buy the offseason narrative that Trey Benson will be more involved in the offense on a weekly basis, something that came from Conner’s mouth and that was almost immediately refuted by his coaches to the media. Conner started the 2024 season seeing 60% or more of the offensive snaps in 10 of 14 games and handled a robust 75% of the carries inside the five on the season.

Staley’s back end runs from heavy rates of two-high shells but with a unique twist in that they routinely bail from two-high coverages via pattern-match concepts. What that means is that his secondary shows two-high alignments at a heavy rate pre-snap (as much as 80% in recent seasons) but with defenders that react like they were in man, adjusting their assignments and coverages based on route combinations. This complex scheme is a big reason why Staley’s Rams in 2020 and Chargers in 2021-2023 routinely found themselves in the top 10 against the pass – it makes diagnosing coverages extremely difficult for opposing quarterbacks. This is not good news for the Cardinals, considering their relatively vanilla pass-game scheme that relies heavily on its players winning in one-on-one situations, which we have not seen any improvements on from early clips from camp and preseason. That’s particularly an issue for second-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who struggled in that area last season. And since their other wide receivers consist of non-world-beaters Michael Wilson and Zay Jones, this spot sets up nicely for another spike volume week for third-year tight end Trey McBride. He’s one of the only tight ends in the league that brings 30+ fantasy-point upside and is a great candidate to see extreme touchdown progression after scoring just twice (four total, two receiving) a season ago. 

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY Hilow >>

• Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin avoided PUP but is reportedly going to miss multiple games to start the season. Beat reporters place his return in October.
• Buccaneers TE Cade Otton injured his hamstring early in camp and then missed practices post-third preseason game due to “leg soreness.” The most recent reports (27 August) were that he will miss “a little bit” – we don’t currently know if that jeopardizes his Week 1 status.
• Buccaneers OT Tristan Wirfs is almost assuredly going to miss time to start the season.
• Almost nothing changes for the Bucs on the defensive side of the ball – expect the same elevated blitz rates (third-ranked 34.2% in 2024) and overall aggression from Todd Bowles’ defense.
• The Tampa Bay offense should look similar to what we saw last season. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was Liam Coen’s “right-hand man” while serving as the team’s pass-game coordinator. He also served under Mike McDaniel in Miami for two seasons.
• Falcons WR Darnell Mooney returned to practice Wednesday (27 August) and appears to be on track for Week 1.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

While the Tampa Bay offensive line performed extremely well in 2024, their depth, or, lack thereof, is another story. The Bucs kept just three reserve offensive linemen through roster cuts, two of which are swing tackles – Charlie Heck, a 2020 fourth-round pick with just 23 career starts, and Benjamin Chukwuma, an undrafted free agent. I expect Heck to get the start on Baker Mayfield’s blindside in Week 1. Heck is a replacement-level talent with below-average grades in pass blocking in four of five seasons and below-average grades in run blocking in all five seasons as a professional. Mayfield faced pressure on just 24.7% of his dropbacks in 2024, third lowest in the league, behind Tampa’s second-ranked pass-blocking grade from PFF. We lead with all of this for a specific reason – it makes the absence of Wirfs notable for how it will likely influence their ability to stick to their game plan early in the year. In 2024, the Buccaneers held a 59.7% overall pass rate, which fell to 51.4% when leading by seven or more points and jumped to a whopping 71.0% when trailing by seven or more points and 72.9% with five to nine yards to go. Those numbers could become important here even with the change at offensive coordinator. Grizzard was hired from within after serving as the team’s pass-game coordinator under Coen and effectively operating as the former coordinator’s “right-hand man,” and operates a system that stresses verticality and stretching the field. Grizzard also served under McDaniel for two season in Miami. He has said the verbiage and formations will remain the same from Coen’s offense last season. Not a ton changes in 2025 on the defensive side of the ball under Bowles, and the bulk of their starters return for the new season. To that end, expect aggressive defensive play calling and elevated blitz rates (third-ranked 34.2% in 2024) designed to generate consistent pressure in the backfield, with Vita Vea serving as one of the best nose tackles in the league to combat the run.

The potential absence of Otton could also become a meaningful aspect of this game, as he was routinely deployed on the left side of the formation when Wirfs missed time in 2024. That does two things to the offense: (1) It allowed Otton to help the backup left tackle in protection on obvious passing downs, and (2) it made the Buccaneers’ offense less balanced, as most obvious passing plays involved a very Remember the Titans-esque left side-strong side formation, with the tight end on the left side of the formation. Again, this could become important when we talk about the defensive tendencies of the Falcons. As for how Wirfs’ absence and Otton’s potential absence influence the run game, I would expect Grizzard to utilize the same zone-heavy run scheme with gap concepts mixed in, with a clear potential bias towards the right side of the formation. The Bucs made a distinctive shift towards increased emphasis on Bucky Irving towards the end of last season, a shift that coincided with the team’s Week 11 bye. From Week 12 on last year, Irving handled 15.9 carries and averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, but he still saw only 45.5% of the carries inside the five. Rachaad White, who suffered a groin strain in the first preseason game, appears to have avoided a major injury and should be good to go for this game, while the team also still has Sean Tucker on hand for change-of-pace duties. Reading the tea leaves from beat reports out of Tampa this offseason, I expect Tucker to usurp White as the primary change-of-pace back in short order. Either way, we’re looking at a clear “1A/1B to lead-back-change-of-pace back” situation here. Ulbrich’s defenses have notoriously been susceptible to the run due to their reliance on athleticism for heavy pursuit, often leading to overpursuit on the ground. 

Godwin, although not yet ruled out, is almost certainly going to miss this contest. Fellow wide receiver Jalen McMillan was placed on injured reserve. Now Otton is uncertain to start the season with multiple leg injuries. I expect Payne Durham to start should Otton miss, although beat writer reports imply second-year pro Devin Culp should see his fair share of opportunity as well after posting a 5-88 line on six targets with multiple contested downfield catches and an average of 3.4 yards per route run during Otton’s Week 16-18 absence in 2024. Last season, Durham played 190 snaps on passing plays, was in a route on 148 of those snaps, and saw 13 targets (8.8% targets per route run). More known for his blocking (nicknamed the “human battering ram”), it is highly unlikely he ascends to a meaningful target rate here. That effectively leaves veteran Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka as the only clear pass-catching options, should Otton miss with injury. Expect Sterling Shepard and Ryan Miller to be involved by necessity. Things change a bit should Otton play, but it currently does not look like that will be the case. Ulbrich’s defense typically involves some clever deception that utilizes heavy zone rates on early downs and heavy man rates in clear passing situations. The two aspects of that exploration that I find most interesting are the ways he develops his deception and the preference for a shadow in clear passing situations. While Ulbrich doesn’t deploy a ton of man on early downs, he loves to show man coverage in the secondary before bailing to zone – something that sends youngsters into increased rates of mistakes. I don’t expect that to befuddle Mayfield at similar rates. The second-most interesting aspect of this matchup on paper is the heavy shadow utilization from man. I expect A.J. Terrell to be right in Evans’ hip pocket whenever this defense finds itself in man coverage. Egbuka could be primed for an early-season eruption in his rookie year, starting with this game. 

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY hilow >>

• Raiders brought back WR Amari Cooper on a one-year, $4 million contract, drafted RB Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft, spent second- and fourth-round picks on wide receivers, and made numerous splashy free-agent signings on the defensive side of the ball.
• This Las Vegas team is going to look much different than last season. GM John Spytek had a busy offseason – some moves I love and others made me scratch my head.
• Patriots brought back Mike Vrabel as head coach and Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator.
• They were also extremely busy this offseason, with four new offensive linemen, a slew of defensive additions, the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, and the addition of RB TreVeyon Henderson in the second round.
• Both of these teams have a lot of changes entering the new year.
• This game has very few paths to offensive eruption, with each team likeliest to want to control the game via long, sustained drives.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders “boast” a middling-to-poor offensive line that is likely to be an issue this season, wasted a second-round pick on a wide receiver that got beat out by a fourth-rounder only to then sign Cooper, drafted a quarterback in the sixth and then traded for Kenny Pickett, and made significant coaching changes by adding head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. The Raiders did a lot of work to improve their roster this season, but some of the personnel moves they’ve made make zero sense. Bringing in Carroll and Kelly scream a high-volume rushing attack with an uptempo backbone. Their defense, combined with who Carroll is as a coach, should keep them in games this season. But man, that offensive line is going to be an issue, particularly on the ground. Kelly’s offense is utilizes zone-based run concepts, pre-snap motion, pace, and run-pass options designed to remain unpredictable and generate space by elongating the opposing defense in the horizontal plane. I would also expect to see zone-read options. This is an interesting team for the coming season in a division that has recently been dominated by the Chiefs.

I think it is fair to expect Jeanty to operate as a true workhorse in his rookie season, similar to how we saw Saquon Barkley come in and immediately be that dude. Sure, they brought in Raheem Mostert, but forgive me for not being worried about a 33-year-old running back with two career seasons over 137 carries. The volume for Jeanty should be there on a weekly basis, and it’s all about how Kelly maximizes his talents to overcome a pedestrian line. Situational play-calling tendencies will go a long way in deciding the type of season Jeanty experiences. The Patriots were a middling run defense in 2024, ranking between 14^th and 18^th in most meaningful metrics against the run, something that I expect to improve under Vrabel and Terrell Williams.

Kelly is also known for varying personnel groupings. There were numerous offseason reports indicating the team wanted to get third-year tight end Michael Mayer more involved, which I expect them to make good on through increased rates of 12-personnel. It remains a mystery where those snaps will likeliest come from, but I wouldn’t expect them to come from Jakobi Meyers, regardless of his offseason trade request. Meyers is largely viewed as a slot-only player but ran only 30.5% of his routes from the slot a season ago. Especially to begin the season, I think it’s much likelier those snaps and routes come at the expense of rookie Dont’e Thornton and Cooper. The cornerback duo of Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez is one of the better coverage duos in the league and the Patriots once again have a killer linebacker unit, meaning I expect most of the damage done through the air to be of the quick-hitting variety for the Raiders. Second-year tight end Brock Bowers obviously carries immense ceiling each time he takes the field, but it’s a relatively poor matchup on paper against anyone but rookie safety Craig Woodson.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY HILOW >>

• Panthers placed WR Jalen Coker (quad) on injured reserve and signed Hunter Renfrow, the latter who spent the preseason with the team before being released at roster cuts.
• Liam Coen gets his first crack at head-coach duties after leading the Buccaneers’ offense to a blowup year in 2024.
• Panthers traded WR Adam Thielen to the Vikings.
• Ejiro Evero’s zone-heavy defense allowed the most fantasy points per dropback from zone in 2024 (0.48).
• This game carries an extremely wide range of potential outcomes regarding the likeliest game flow, making it a solid game to stack up or stay away from.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

First off, I want to dispel a narrative that has been going around the industry a lot this offseason – whether or not Bryce Young “peppers his slot receiver.” I kept seeing this thrown around with zero regard for accuracy and finally pushed back a bit on the X machine, but I’ll save the good stuff for you all here (this is also part of the reason I never bought into the Jalen Coker hype train). Young targeted the slot on 138 pass attempts in 2024 (15^th), with a 72.5% completion rate (18^th), 92.5 QBR (26^th), 9.0-yard aDOT, and 0.45 fantasy points per dropback (23^rd), of quarterbacks with nine or more appearances. Yes, he holds a career 36.1% slot target rate (third highest over the previous three seasons), but his pass catchers during his career have consisted of Adam Thielen (primary slot), Xavier Legette, DJ Chark, Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Tommy Tremble. Where else was the ball going to go than a veteran slot man that can get open? In other words, a bit of context is required here to diagnose the raw stats (slot target rates are already a flimsy stat to begin with, in my opinion – just lacking so much context).

The team is now left with first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan, underperforming past first-rounder Xavier Legette, Renfrow, Tremble, and Sanders … where would we expect the targets to flow now? Yea, probably to McMillan and not “whatever body is occupying the slot.” Jaguars first time defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile is reportedly going to install a “multiple” defense, one which has no true base front (mixes 3-4 and 4-3) and varying coverage alignments. He is a former linebackers coach and run-game coordinator with the Packers, so I’m interested to see how he designs the back end. I honestly don’t have a good read on this situation since he has such little coaching experience to this point in his career. View this is a plus matchup based on defensive personnel, in a defense I expect to be better against the run than the pass.

Rico Dowdle appears primed for a significant role on this offense if we are to believe preseason usage. Dowdle operated as the clear third-down back in all drives with the starters this preseason, which is likeliest to settle into a “change-of-pace-plus-third-down” role. That syphons a bit of expected volume away from Chuba Hubbard, who operated in a true workhorse role from Week 5 on last season. DaVon Hamilton is a below-average nose tackle, but the presence of Arik Armstead on the interior defensive line is a big boost to a defense that should be more malleable than in previous years. I would expect Hubbard to settle into a 60-65% snap rate and opportunity share, with Dowdle soaking up much of the remainder.

As was mentioned above, the target competition for McMillan is sparse-to-none after the team moved Thielen and Coker landed on injured reserve. He should have every opportunity to see significant volume right away and showed that he can return solid upside on that volume this preseason. That shouldn’t come as a surprise after the team sunk the No. 8 overall pick into him in this year’s draft. The most interesting fallout from the recent wide receiver transactions from this team was the signing of Renfrow, which indicated to me that the team does not want Legette running a bunch of routes from the slot and prefers to play him on the perimeter. That means he is likely going to see the most press-man coverage, as I expect McMillan to be deployed more as a ‘Z’ than an ‘X,’ getting him off the line of scrimmage and in motion. That leaves a lot to be desired for Legette and leaves me with an “I’ll believe it when I see it” mentality. I also wonder when Coker was truly injured and why the Panthers felt they needed to trade Thielen or release Renfrow to begin with. Okay, sidebar complete. 

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• This game has a total of four points below the next closest game on the slate
• These teams are mirror images of each other and want to win with a similar style
• The Jets are debuting a new coaching staff. Their new OC was previously the Lions passing game coordinator.
• Both backfields are time shares.
• Each team has only one NFL-worthy starting WR. Both defenses have at least one excellent cornerback.
• The Steelers are going to play more three-TE formations than we have seen in the NFL.
• The Jets are starting a rookie TE in his first game
• Both offenses have ascending offensive lines with proven interiors and high draft picks at tackle
• The best DFS plays from this game are the defenses

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers are entering 2025 in what will likely be the final effort of an aging Aaron Rodgers. Despite being perennially mediocre and looking nothing like a Super Bowl contender last season, the Steelers have behaved as if they are ready to go all in for a championship. On offense, they doubled down on the Arthur Smith experience, which I’ve heard is also a new attraction coming to Disney. Your kids run into a wall for an hour while a large man screams, “Beat the guy across from you!” The Steelers are set up to play a particularly goofy style of football. DK Metcalf is the only NFL-caliber WR on their roster, but that’s part of the plan! Who needs WRs when you can play three TEs? Jonnu Smith is a receiving threat, Pat Friermuth is balanced, and Darnell Washington should be playing tackle. The Steelers have also invested heavily in their O-line. The unit is ranked 21st by PFF, but that rank is somewhat deceptive. Second-year C Zach Fraizer graded out 5th-best in the league last year by PFF, and fellow second-year player RG Mason McCormick was league average, profiling as a run blocking specialist. LG Isaac Seumalo was hurt last year and has long been an above-average player. The real question mark of the Steelers O-line will be the tackles, with former first-round pick Broderick Jones starting to play better, and former first-round pick Troy Fautanu coming back from injury after missing all his rookie year. The Steelers’ O-line is one of the youngest and highest draft capital units in the league. For all his faults, Smith has consistently gotten the most out of his O-line, and if that trend continues, this might be one of the better groups by the end of the season.

With a roster set up perfectly for Smith’s offense, how will the Steelers try to win? Mostly on defense, but we can confidently predict that they are going to have one of the highest situational neutral run rates in the league. That is a significant departure from the “Rodgers” offense, but we must assume Rodgers agreed to play Smith’s under-center system before signing on with the Steelers. There is a real chance we see the Rodgers offense show up in two-minute situations, but the expectation should be a normal Arthur Smith ground-and-pound attack for most of the game. The Steelers are going to try to win exactly how they tried to win last season. They’re going to run the ball unless they are forced to throw, and hope to win low-scoring defensive struggles.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY hilow >>

• The Dolphins almost completely shuffled their offensive line this offseason following the retirement of OT Terron Armstead.
• TE Darren Waller came out of retirement to join the Dolphins following the trade of Jonnu Smith.
• The Dolphins also almost completely shuffled their secondary this offseason.
• QB Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, WR Tyreek Hill is healthy(ish – missed time in camp with an oblique injury), De’Von Achane is healthy(ish – missed time in camp with a calf injury), Malik Washington looked good in preseason, Jaylen Waddle received nothing but glowing reports out of camp – the excuses are running out quickly in Miami.
• DC Lou Anarumo joins the Colts, bringing one of the most dynamic defenses in the league to Indianapolis. That can be really good or really bad, as we’ve seen throughout his career in Cincinnati. His defense is just so unpredictable and changes so much from game to game.
• Daniel Jones won the starting quarterback job for the Colts and is reportedly on a “long leash” this season.
• The Colts drafted TE Tyler Warren in the first round after utilizing a four-man rotation at the position the previous two seasons.
• The Colts boast a top-tier offensive line, which is important to early-season success.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Is there a team with a wider range of outcomes than the Dolphins this season? If you were following along with OWS last season, you know how we were able to diagnose the issues with the Dolphins before the rest of the field. Those issues stemmed from a general inability to get anything going consistently on the ground, which allowed the Dolphins’ opponents to increase their rates of two-high defensive alignments to halt their downfield passing (saw a league-high 56.1% two-high rate, and only the Raiders, Saints, Giants, and Browns averaged fewer fantasy points per dropback against two-high in 2024), in turn forcing them to adjust their offense to be based almost entirely on quick hits to the middle of the field as an extension of the run. That was the reason Smith had his breakout year, that was the reason (amongst some other contributing factors) that Hill stopped connecting on downfield chunk plays, that was the reason Waddle lost his consistency. Sure, the injuries to Tua exacerbated those issues, but it all stemmed from this team’s inability to run on their opponents. 

Furthermore, Tua averaged just 2.30 seconds time to throw last season, which ranked dead last in the league and serves to highlight the changing dynamics of the offense in a reactionary fashion. The question then becomes, can things be any different in 2025? Armstead retired and is likely to be replaced by 2024 second-round pick Patrick Paul, who underwhelmed as a rookie but shows flashes of promise. The Dolphins invested in the interior with the selection of Jonah Savaiinaea and the addition of free agent guard James Daniels, giving at least some promise for things to turn around. Situational play-calling tendencies also need to improve, as whatever McDaniel did last season to band-aid the situation clearly did not work. I tend to side on the bullish case with the Dolphins this season (as evidenced by my best ball exposure, for those that were following along this offseason), but I would be remiss in not stating the clear fact that this team’s season could either go really, really well, or extremely poorly.

Achane missed a couple weeks in camp with a calf injury, but all reports indicate he will be ready to rock come Week 1. What that means as far as how healthy he really is or how effective he will be is anyone’s guess, but he should be out there on the field against the Colts. Jaylen Wright is another story, and he appears likely to miss the first few weeks of the season due to a leg injury. That should pave the way for rookie sixth-round running back Ollie Gordon to make an impact right away, likely as a change-of-pace back plus the potential for the goal-line role considering his 6’1”, 225-pound frame. The Colts allowed just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt a season ago and still have one of the better front sevens in the league, making this a matchup that is a poor one on paper.

Anarumo has been a mixed bag with respect to two-high utilization rates over the previous four seasons. The “mad scientist” tailors his defense to the opponent, making it one of the more adaptable defenses in the league. But that same organized chaos can be exploited, as we started to see towards the tail end of his career in Cincinnati. Assignments and responsibilities change weekly, requiring all players to be on the same page to be effective. This will be an interesting chess match between one of the more forward-thinking offensive minds and one of the more forward-thinking defensive minds in the league. Aerial production should clearly funnel primarily through Hill and Waddle, with Washington on hand in the slot and Waller on hand for whatever he has left in the tank (I don’t think it’s much, but we shall see). Achane also remains an integral piece of the passing offense and should see consistent volume through the air. If I were devising a plan to attack Anarumo’s defense, I would keep things as unpredictable as possible and utilize extreme rates of pre-snap motion, layering in digs, drags, rubs, sluggos, and whips to get players in the soft spots in the second level. There’s really no way of knowing what’s going on between McDaniel’s ears, but Hill, Achane, Waddle and the rest of the supporting cast could cause fits for Anarumo with the speed they have.

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY mike johnson >>

• Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward will be thrown directly in the fire with one of the toughest possible matchups to start his NFL career.
• A preseason injury to Titans running back Tyjae Spears leaves Tony Pollard in a likely workhorse role to start the season.
• The Broncos defense was near the top of the league last offseason and has added firepower in the draft and free agency.
• Denver’s offense was rotational at multiple positions last season but is likely to have much more constant personnel in 2025.
• Tennessee’s defense was a respectable 17th in total DVOA in 2024 and made several key improvements to their personnel this offseason. They were noticeably better against the run last season.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Titans enter Week 1 of the NFL season with an incredible amount of excitement around the team and organization thanks to the arrival of Ward via the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. After an ugly first season of the Brian Callahan era, led primarily by Will Levis, the Titans were rewarded for their struggles with the dynamic and poised Ward. If you watched Titans games last season, it would seem hard to draw many positives from the tape, but the reality is things can change quickly in the NFL and the biggest factor in those changes comes at the quarterback position. Months of building to this moment have brought us to Ward’s debut, although it is hard to imagine a tougher spot than this one – on the road, playing at a high altitude, and facing arguably the league’s best defense. 

While we can look at historical data and coaching tendencies in many instances to guide us for what Week 1 will look like for many teams, the Titans present an interesting case. Callahan’s first season in Tennessee was basically a lost cause from the start and he was always trying to mask the deficiencies of his quarterback. Prior to that, Callahan built a strong reputation due to his previous five-year role as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals. However, in Cincinnati, the play-calling duties were handled by head coach Zac Taylor, so even that sample size is hard to trust. Additionally, during Callahan’s time in Cincinnati, he was largely working with elite passing game talent. That is not that case, at least not right now, for the Titans. These things all combine to create a unique situation where there is a lot of past data we can look at to try to gauge how they will play, but it is hard to have much certainty of what it will look like when the bullets start flying.

Part of the problem for evaluating how Tennessee’s offense will look is that what we saw in preseason may not be relevant once they encounter Denver’s elite defense. The Titans’ passing game appears to be timing-based in many regards, while the Broncos’ dominant pass rush is likely to mess with that timing. Likewise, Denver is coming off a season where they ranked first in the NFL in run defense DVOA. In addition, the Denver secondary is ELITE. Already boasting 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II, and rising star Riley Moss, the Broncos first-round selection at 20th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft was cornerback Jahdae Barron out of Texas, who was the Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s top defensive back. The rich get richer.

The Titans will be without Spears, leaving Pollard in a workhorse role. However, he is likely to have a tough time finding room to run. Their top wide receiver is veteran Calvin Ridley. However, Ridley has been extremely matchup-dependent throughout his career, feasting on weaker cornerbacks and struggling in tougher matchups – this week is about as tough as it gets. The result of this is the Titans’ primary and preferred ways of moving the ball are likely to be bottled up for the opening week. This will leave them relying on Ward to make quick decisions and/or improvise to keep drives alive and get them into scoring position. Expect tight end Chig Okonkwo, who appears destined for a full-time role after rotating last year, to be a favorite target in this matchup, while Ward will also likely check down to Pollard and his secondary receivers at a higher-than-normal rate. 

How denver Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

BY mike johnson >>

• The 49ers look to extend their Super Bowl window after a down year in 2024, thanks in large part to a rash of injuries.
• San Francisco’s offensive scheme is unlikely to change much as Kyle Shanahan returns for yet another season running things.
• The 49ers defense had a down year by their standards in 2024, but they are hopeful that the return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will get them back on track in 2025.
• Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, is a disciple of the Shanahan coaching tree and many of his concepts will look similar to what we see from the other side of the ball.
• Despite a career year in 2024, Sam Darnold is set to begin a journey with yet another new team and scheme this season.

HOW San Francisco WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 49ers offense will operate in a clear, consistent, and predictable manner in 2025. Perhaps the biggest factor is the return of a healthy Christian McCaffrey, who this offense is built around and opens up everything else that they try to do. A true match made in heaven of player and scheme, CMC can do everything on the football field and Kyle Shanahan has no issues asking him to. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel in the offseason and Brandon Aiyuk will miss the first few weeks as he recovers from last season’s devastating knee injury. Meanwhile, the status of Jauan Jennings (calf/contract) is uncertain for Week 1 and veteran free agent acquisition Demarcus Robinson is out due to suspension. This leaves the 49ers offense extremely condensed with three talented players likely to account for most of the touches.

CMC is obviously the focal point here, while veteran all-world tight end George Kittle is set for a massive role to start the season with their wide receiver situation in shambles. Kittle has had massive notable splits throughout his career without Deebo Samuel on the field and now his target competition is the weakest it has ever been with Brock Purdy as his quarterback. Expect the 49ers passing game to be focused on Kittle, especially to start the season with all this time they have had to plan for the players they will be without. This is also a situation that is hard for an opposing defense to take him away as it is different from an elite wide receiver who you can easily “shadow” with a cornerback or rotate coverage towards. Kittle’s versatility and size make him a matchup nightmare. We should expect him to have a 25 to 35% target share until further notice. The final piece of the equation is second-year wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, a 2024 first round pick who ended his rookie season strong. Pearsall will likely be utilized in a variety of ways, although when at full strength, he profiles as a player who they will likely deploy similarly to how they used Samuel in past seasons.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• We will get our first look at the Lions offense since former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s departure. Most of the Lions offense remains intact, with the main loss being the retirement of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow and the biggest addition being rookie third wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa.
• Detroit’s defense looks to bounce back from a season in which they were decimated by injury and welcomes back All-Pro edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions also lost defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who is now the head coach of the Jets.
• The Packers look to kick off 2025 with better luck within their division after a season in which they had an 11-6 overall record, but a 1-5 record within the NFC North.
• Green Bay’s offense was one of the more run-heavy units in the league in 2024, but that may change this season thanks to the addition of first-round pick Matthew Golden, a wide receiver out of Texas.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions are an interesting case study for 2025 as they have a massive change in their coaching ranks after losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs following a season that saw them post a league best 15-2 regular season record. Detroit’s offense has been dominant for the last couple of seasons, and its aggressive defensive scheme has served them well (except when decimated by injuries). This brings up the question of what we will see from the Lions after their embarrassing playoff loss to the Commanders and subsequent change in coaching staff. Head coach Dan Campbell is the ultimate leader and unlikely to smother his new staff, yet he will likely have a hand in determining what the team’s approach will be, and his M.O. of aggressiveness and competitiveness is something that he will not allow to change.

The Lions return their elite running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery as well as most of their dominant offensive line. Detroit’s offense has generally operated from a run-first standpoint. They can move the ball consistently with chunk plays on the ground, opening everything else up. This week’s matchup against Green Bay will be especially interesting considering the Packers recent blockbuster move. We get our first look at Micah Parsons in a Green Bay uniform after the Packers traded two first round picks and DT Kenny Clark for the right to pay Parsons $188 million over four years. The addition of Parsons and the loss of Clark drastically change the makeup of the Packers defense. Parsons is an elite edge rusher, but a huge liability in run defense. Meanwhile, Clark’s presence was a huge factor in the Packers ranking 7th in run defense DVOA and 3rd in yards per carry allowed in 2024. The addition of Parsons will make a massive impact on many games this season, but the Lions in Week 1 is likely going to expose some of the holes in that plan.

As for the passing game, the last time we saw Jared Goff, he was having all of his shortcomings exposed by the Commanders. The reality is that Goff is best when his team is in control of the game and he isn’t forced to be more than he is capable of. Without question, Detroit’s approach in this game will be to lean heavily on their running game early and expose the new weakness of Green Bay’s defense. Through this approach, the Lions will open up some play action passing opportunities and get the Packers defense on their heels. The majority of Detroit’s passing will likely be focused on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the short to intermediate areas. We could also see an expanded route tree for wide receiver Jameson Williams after he finished the 2024 season strong and has drawn rave reviews all summer. The ascension of Williams and the addition of preseason sensation Isaac TeSlaa in the third round of the NFL Draft give Detroit a scary wide receiver trio to complement their already dominant running game. The one potential change in approach for the Lions offense, which would not surprise me, would be a greater focus on their top offensive weapons – Gibbs, ARSB, and Williams – rather than their more spread-the-wealth approach we have seen in past seasons. The elite play designs of Ben Johnson allowed them to get a lot of people involved creatively, but this year, I would expect them to rely more on their talent and less on their scheme. That being said, for Week 1, the focus is almost certainly going to be on the running game until and unless the Packers show an ability to slow them down.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Houston is likely to throw at an elevated rate due to their offensive line and personnel issues.
• The Rams offense has upgraded its pass game weapons with the addition of WR Davante Adams and second-round rookie TE Terrance Ferguson.
• Houston’s defense was its strength last year and should be very strong once again in 2025 after ranking third in DVOA against both the run and pass last season.
• Rams QB Matthew Stafford is managing a back injury that is unlikely to go away anytime soon. 

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston only won two non-divisional road games in 2024, against the 4-13 Patriots and the Cowboys without Dak Prescott. The success of the last two seasons under head coach DeMeco Ryans has been impressive, but the reality is that much of their success has been due to the fact that they have been able to pick on the AFC South. Texans QB CJ Stroud returns for his third NFL season with a revamped offensive line and receiving corps. The Houston running game is a huge area of concern as they deal with the absence of Joe Mixon and still have a litany of questions around their offensive line. Alongside a healthy Nico Collins, the Texans added dynamic slot receiver Christian Kirk in free agency and drafted wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and fourth rounds, respectively, of the NFL Draft. The tight end position appears that it will operate in some sort of a rotation between veteran Dalton Schultz, the much younger Cade Stover, and recently acquired Harrison Bryant. New offensive coordinator Nick Caley was previously the passing game coordinator for the Rams, where they have operated almost exclusively from “11” personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back) in recent years. 

In 2024, the Texans offense was hamstrung by their shaky offensive line. Houston ranked 24th in adjusted line yards per carry and 27th in rushing offense DVOA last year, despite Joe Mixon being their primary ball carrier for most of the season. Most of the offensive line has been overhauled, which may have great returns in the long term but is likely to take some time to come together. The Texans backfield currently consists of some combination of veterans Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, and Dare Ogunbowale – along with rookie fourth-round pick Woody Marks. The Rams run defense was below average in most metrics in 2024 and returns most of the same personnel and coaching staff. 

Considering the questions around Houston’s offensive line and the chaos in Houston’s backfield at the moment, an elevated pass rate is likely for Week 1. This should actually be a welcome change, as one of the biggest issues former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik had was running the ball on early downs at far too high a rate, leading to long down and distance situations where defenses teed off on Stroud. This year, and especially in this matchup, a quick strike passing game is likely to be the main approach for the Texans passing game. We can confidently expect Collins and Kirk to be the primary targets and the team to be creative with how they move Collins around the formation. The Texans will certainly attempt to establish some sort of threat on the ground early in the game, but regardless of game script, it would not be surprising to see them shift quickly to a pass-heavy approach. This also presents a situation where if the Texans are able to play with a lead in the second half, they are likely to have to continue passing the ball to move the chains rather than bleeding the clock on the ground like most teams prefer.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football should be exciting as the Ravens take on the Bills as 1.5-point road favorites in a 50.5 total game. We’ll see if we get the shootout that Vegas is predicting, but if we do, it should be fun. Both teams have some changes in the offseason that we’ll have to pick through as well, and if we can do that successfully, we should set ourselves up with some nice edge in this first game.

BUFFALO

We’ll start with the Bills. James Cook had a fantastic season last year. He ran for 1,000 yards and scored 16 touchdowns. But he also only carried the ball 207 times – fewer than the year before, even – and also saw decreased passing game involvement with just 38 targets. His production was built on elite efficiency (4.9 yards per carry and, of course, averaging a touchdown per game). He only reached a modest 61% snap share once and was below 50% in 10 of the Bills games last year (including the playoffs), and that includes 9 of their last 10 games as Ty Johnson seized more work. He’s going to have an extremely tough time getting anywhere near last year’s level of production while averaging just 15 touches per game, especially against a defense as good as Baltimore’s, and that makes him a pretty clear fade for me at his elevated $9,200 price tag.

They also have Ray Davis on the roster in addition to Johnson. Davis is basically a bowling ball (as Hilow described him last season) and could easily steal some goal line work, while Johnson saw his snap share climb during the second half of the season (he somewhat quietly played 401 total snaps last season – more than Davis and not that far behind Cook’s 584). The challenge is that he’s a third down back but with only modest passing game involvement – just 25 targets on the season to go along with 41 carries – and so while he was on the field a lot, he wasn’t getting a ton of touches when he was out there. At their respective prices, I’d probably still rather play Johnson than Cook. Just one note here: we’ll have to see how projection services rate Cook. If he’s only being projected for a part-time role, it’s possible that we may see his ownership come in below what I’m initially expecting. I think around 20-25% Cook is reasonable, higher than that would be bad. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bills infuriate us every year by giving 6 or 7 pass catchers meaningful snaps. Mack Hollins is gone and replaced by Josh Palmer, and Amari Cooper has been replaced by Elijah Moore. But, they’re still going to roster and play 5 WRs, I expect. Shakir was their WR1 last season but that came with an extremely low 100 targets. Will he remain the WR1? He’s priced like it, and so far projection services have him projected that way. It’s worth noting that Hilow expects Palmer to lead the team in snaps, and if that is indeed the case, he’s underpriced at just $5,400 and a pretty clear overweight position. Keon Coleman gets caught in the middle price-wise, and then Samuel and Moore are more of dart throws. Samuel did have a couple of games of 60%+ snaps last year (four of them to be precise), though they all came when someone else was hurt (3 without Coleman, 1 without Shakir). It does seem odd the team would sign him and then not use him, and maybe I’m just biased a bit that way, but…maybe he’s on the field a bit more this season? This is a mess of a situation to try and unpack, as it always is with Buffalo – my only strong take here is to be overweight Palmer, and otherwise I’ll just play along the field on the other guys.

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid followed up a successful rookie campaign with a massive sophomore slump, going from 73/673/2 to 44/448/2. Yikes. The Bills are just very, very spread out, and Dawson Knox is still around to eat into his snaps. In the games in which they were on the field together, Kincaid played 564 total snaps while Knox played 605. Knox saw under half the targets, so it’s tough to feel highly confident in him as a DFS play, but he’s viable in Showdown (as are all the Bills pass catchers), even though most of what he does is just sap Kincaid’s upside. If you want to take a strong stand here on any Bills pass catcher, I’m not going to say you shouldn’t – it is at least possible they change things up in how they use their players this season – but like I said above, my only real strong take is to be overweight the field on Palmer and then I’ll probably just follow ownership on the other guys. It’s important to remember in Showdown that you don’t have to take stands on every possible player. You only need to find one real edge in any given Showdown, you don’t have to have strong takes everywhere. 

BALTIMORE

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 wraps up with the Vikings visiting the Bears for a 43.5 total game in which Minnesota is favored by 1.5. After moving on from Sam Darnold we get to see the exciting second-year J.J. McCarthy take the reins for the Vikings, while the Bears need to hope Caleb Williams can show some progress this year before he starts being viewed as a big-time draft bust. I’m actually really excited for this game. I’ve always loved the Vikings for DFS, and J.J. McCarthy could make them even more exciting. I also really want to love the Bears this season (especially with their new coach), and this game will give us an idea of how they’re going to look. 

MINNESOTA

We’ll start with Minnesota and their backfield, where Aaron Jones returns and Jordan Mason has been signed to the RB2 role. We have a good idea how this is going to play out: the Vikings are likely to limit Jones touches in an attempt to keep him healthy (which worked well last year) – Jones played in every game but had just 255 carries and 62 targets. The targets are quite nice, the carries are a bit low but not awful. We should expect him to land around the 18 or so touch mark in most games, but he likely has very little upside from there and will need to get by on efficiency. The Vikings did give him almost all the running back red zone work, and as long as that continues, he can still find ceilings. At $7,400, and with solid passing game involvement, he seems underpriced to me and is a player I want a lot of exposure to. Mason is likely to be in an RB2 role with something like 8-12 touches per game. Unless I’m wrong here, he looks wildly overpriced and could even be a complete X out spot, something I rarely do in Showdown. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Jordan Addison is suspended, so the wide receiver corps is Justin Jefferson, a recently resigned Adam Thielen, and Jalen Nailor, with Tai Felton and/or Myles Price backing them up. There’s really nothing I can say about Jefferson. He’s awesome. He’s going to be very heavily owned. He’s a good play. The Bears were a strong pass defense last year (though that was also in part due to the volume. They faced relatively few pass attempts in the second half of the season), but he’s Justin Jefferson. Thielen is 35 years old but still managed two 100+ yard games last year (and another of 8/99/1). At $4,400, that would be fantastic, and we know the best time to play older players is early in the season when they’re at their freshest. It feels weird recommending a 35 year old pass catcher, and he has more target competition than he did last year, but $4,400 is awfully cheap for the WR2 in what should be a good offense. Nailor is probably 4th (or even 5th after Jones) on the target tree. He’s worth a dart throw here and there, but I expect his week-to-week target share is going to be quite low.

At tight end, T.J. Hockenson was elite in 2023, got hurt, came back, and was very very good in 2024 despite not scoring any touchdowns. Now he’s further removed from injury and with a full healthy offseason? He’s the real WR2 of this offense, and at $6,600, he’s priced more like a solid-to-good tight end, not a top tier one. He’s one of my favorite overall plays on the slate. Josh Oliver will back up Hock and it’s unclear how much we’ll see of him. Last year, it was a decent amount but that could have been Minnesota taking things easy on Hock coming back from injury, so his role could shrink this year. Oliver is still a reasonably capable pass catcher when on the field and deserves to be included in player pools. It’s worth noting the Vikings have historically been one of the most concentrated offenses in the league in the last five or so seasons. We’ve rarely seen their WR4/5 types or TE2s be fantasy relevant, and we’ve generally seen very robust snap counts for the main guys, so my guess is Oliver fades out this season and all the non-primary guys are very thin options. 

CHICAGO