XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 15 kicks off with the Falcons visiting the Bucs for a 44.5 total game in which Tampa is favored by 4. We have a plethora of injury situations to deal with, first of all. Drake London has yet to “practice” this week despite the team’s practices only being walkthroughs. That makes it extremely likely he sits, so I’ll assume he’s out. Kyle Pitts is also questionable for the Falcons, but seeing as how he played 92% of the offensive snaps last week and was listed as limited in the walkthroughs, I feel highly confident he’s playing. On the Bucs side of things, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan have both been practicing while on injured reserve. My guess is that Mike Evans plays, and if he does, that means McMillan’s status is pretty meaningless, as he would be, at best, in line for some WR4 snaps (and he might even be behind Tez Johnson). Cade Otton is also listed as questionable and was listed as DNP in both of the team’s walkthroughs thus far. He didn’t leave last week’s game with an injury, so I’m guessing it’s maintenance, but this is the one spot I don’t have a good feeling about. To sum up, on the Falcons, I think London’s out, and Pitts is in. On the Bucs, I think Evans is in, McMillan doesn’t really matter, and Otton is more likely in than out, but I’m something like 60/40 on that spot. Whew.

TAMPA BAY

On the Bucs side of things, Bucky Irving got dinged up last week, and while he returned to the game, he wasn’t all that effective, and he ended up playing just 49% of the snaps, the lowest he’s played in any game this season, including his first game back from a lengthy injury. I have to think the injury played into this, but since he isn’t on the injury report at all now, I think we should treat him as if he’s fine. He handled 17 opportunities last week, which was his lowest of the season but still respectable, and that highlights just how good his role is. The matchup here is neutral, the Bucs are large home favorites, and thus Bucky is a solid on-paper play, especially so if Evans plays, because the Tampa receivers are all negatively impacted by Evans returning (and are priced for life without him) while Bucky isn’t impacted by Evans. The only real risk to Bucky is that Sean Tucker is quite good and Tampa insists on using Rachaad White despite him being very much #notgood, which means even though he’s the lead back, there are two other guys hanging around capable of vulturing him, whereas most running backs only have to deal with 1 backup threat. To me, it’s worth the risk, and I think Bucky has the second-highest overall points projection of any skill position player behind only Bijan Robinson. White and Tucker are dart throws as they somewhat cannibalize each other. I’d prefer playing Tucker because he’s much cheaper, but both will be in my player pool. 

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In the passing game, Evans return puts Tampa back at full strength in its receiving corps with him, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin. That’s an awfully talented group. I’d guess Evans is eased back in a bit as that’s usually what the Bucs do with guys returning from lengthy layoffs, and at $9k, he’s pretty fully priced. I think he still does have ceiling, but it is very risky, leaving him as a pay up to be contrarian option. Egbuka has actually struggled without Evans. Since Week 5, he has only reached double-digit DK points once in eight games (his explosion against Seattle). That’s a fairly small sample size and the kind of adjustment period you’d expect rookie receivers to need, and I think the downsides of having another target earner on the field will be offset for Egbuka by not being the primary focus of the opposing pass defense. His recent struggles have also brought his salary down to the lowest it’s been since Week 1, so I’m on board here (though among guys at the higher end of the salary range, I prefer Bucky).

Next, we come to Godwin, who has been a challenge for me this season. He has been one of my favorite players but it seems like a combination of age and injuries is catching up with him, as he ranks very poorly in predictive metrics such as yards per route run (1.43) and separation score (64th among WRs) – the lowest markets of his career. That’s not to say he can’t have a good game, but at $8,400, he’s kind of spendy given that he’s now essentially the WR3 for Tampa, and his season-high is just over 10 DK points. Of the primary Bucs receivers, for tournaments, I’d rank them as Egbuka, then Evans, then Godwin. Some combination of Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson, and Sterling Shepard will split the rest of the wide receiver snaps. If McMillan is active, these guys are all thin dart throws, whereas if McMillan is not active, they become at least a little bit more robust. Now, if I’m wrong and Evans misses, that leaves a primary WR trio of Egbuka, Godwin, and then some combo of Tez // McMillan // Shepard, which bumps them all up (duh) and makes Tez more of a value play than a dart throw.

UPDATE: Cade Otton has been listed as doubtful, so he’s almost certainly out. In his absence, Payne Durham should play the majority of the tight end snaps, but he’s mostly a blocker, as is Devin Culp, who should play the TE2 role. Because they’re so cheap they will project decently, and from a point-per-dollar standpoint they’re both viable plays, but I question the ceiling given what is likely to be an extremely limited receiving role …3-5 points sounds nice for $600, but it would take a fairly rare runout for that to result in the player landing in a winning tournament lineup. For me, this just bumps up the Bucs wide receivers, mainly Godwin, who runs similar shorter area routes to what Otton will be leaving behind.

At tight end, Cade Otton has had a tough time putting up any sort of relevant fantasy scores this season. He has yet to score a touchdown and has just 4 red zone targets on the year. Every one of the wide receivers talked about has at least 4 red zone targets, even Evans, who has only played in four games. Otton is not a major per-target yardage threat and needs either a lot of targets or a touchdown to find a ceiling, and with a lot of wide receiver target competition and no real red zone role, his odds of getting either of those outcomes are fairly slim. 

ATLANTA

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• The Browns had a lot of players sit out practice on Wednesday. G Joel Bitonio missed with a knee, T Jack Conklin missed with a concussion, S Grant Delpit missed with an illness, DT Mason Graham missed with a rib, DT Adin Huntington missed with a quad, TE David Njoku missed with a knee, RB Dylan Sampson missed with a calf, G Wyatt Teller missed with a calf, WR Cedric Tilman missed with a concussion, and CB Denzel Ward missed with a calf.
• The Bears are relatively healthy. CB Kyle Gordon missed Wednesday’s practice with a groin injury, and RB Travis Homer missed with an ankle injury. WR Rome Odunze was technically limited with a foot (it’s a stress fracture). Keep an eye on his status later in the week.
• The Browns defense got cooked on the ground last week, but they’re still an elite unit.
• Shedeur Sanders showed out when given his first opportunity to pass at elevated rates.
• Quinshon Judkins is the Browns’ best player, but they can’t block for him, and the offense might be transitioning to a pass-first approach.
• Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin are the Browns clear top two options in the passing game.
• The Bears need to keep winning, or they’ll quickly be on the outside looking in at the NFC playoffs.
• Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have become the Bears top pass catchers while Odunze is on the shelf.
• D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are being used the same way Ben Johnson used his RBs in Detroit.

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The 3-10 Browns come into Week 15 after a disappointing home loss against the lifeless Titans. The Titans managed to score 31 points in Cleveland. That is one of the most surprising results in recent NFL history. The Browns’ defense was at home and had been playing at an elite level. The Titans hadn’t scored 30 points (even close) in a game this season. More curious was how they cooked the Browns defense. Cleveland had been lights out against the run, so naturally, they gave up 161 yards and two touchdowns to the previously dead in the water Tony Pollard. The one positive for Cleveland was the play of Shedeur Sanders. He threw for 364 yards, and even though the Titans aren’t good on defense, Sanders looked like a real NFL QB. The Browns haven’t had a QB who looks like he belongs in the NFL all season, and if Sanders keeps playing the way he did last week, they might have a tough decision on their hands when it comes time to draft a QB next April.

The Browns have been playing fast (4th in seconds per play), and while it’s easy to attribute that to always being behind, it shouldn’t be ignored that Kevin Stefanski has always wanted to play fast. Their +2.9% neutral pace over expected was the fastest of any team in Week 14. The Browns play quickly by choice. The Browns have leaned on the run (23rd in PROE), but it’s difficult to run effectively behind a poor (30th-ranked by PFF) O-line that has had issues all season. The Browns PROE number looks low, but that is a yearly number, and something interesting happened last week. It was the first time the Browns had a positive situational neutral pass rate since Sanders took over at QB. Their 58% neutral pass rate last week would be 11th on the season, and it seems like Stefanski finally decided to give Sanders a chance. It’s impossible to know if that trend will hold into this week, but it’s interesting to see what looks like a philosophy shift. Sanders certainly delivered when given more opportunities. The Bears’ defense has been weak (28th in DVOA) against the run, and vulnerable (24th in DVOA) against the pass. The Bears defense hasn’t been good, but their weaknesses aren’t going to matter as much as the Browns preferences. Stefanski has every incentive to let Sanders show his stuff, and the Browns are likely to pass more than people expect in this one.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Mark Andrews (glute) and WR Rashod Bateman (ankle) were added to the injury report Thursday as limited participants.
• WR Tee Higgins was limited for the second straight practice Thursday after re-entering the concussion protocol last week.
• Similar to two weeks ago, when these two teams met for the first time, the spot on paper for Derrick Henry is elite. That said, we know he likely required 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to return a solid GPP score.
• Neither of these teams is yet mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, with the clearest path for each team being to win the AFC North. That adds a bit of upside to the game environment, should it reach “oh shit” mode early.

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How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens are currently two games behind the Colts and Texans for the wildcard and one game behind the Steelers for the AFC North. They get the floundering yet dangerous Bengals in Week 15 before games against the 11-2 Patriots, the 9-3-1 Packers, and the 7-6 Steelers to end the season, with their clearest path to the postseason being to win the division. The Ravens faltered in their previous two games after winning five straight, the first loss of which came against these Bengals in a game in which they gave the ball away five times. Clearly not at full health, Lamar Jackson will need to play much better football than he has in the previous two games to save the Ravens’ sinking season. He completed just 36 of 67 passes against the Bengals and Steelers in those two losses, adding 73 combined yards and a score on the ground. The Ravens rank 30th in PROE while averaging the eighth most rush attempts per game (28.5) and the fewest pass attempts per game (27.1) this season, highlighting a run-first doctrine that has persisted through numerous offensive coordinators under head coach John Harbaugh.

If they are to be successful against a far inferior defense this week, it likely starts with Derrick Henry on the ground. We also know what we’re getting with Henry, who has not seen more than three targets in a game this season and is typically not going to see more than 55-60% of the offensive snaps, likely requiring 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to pay off his still-lofty price tag. The good news is that his opponent in Week 15 is the most forgiving in the league in that regard, having allowed an average of 32.1 DK points, the most rushing yards (1,643), and 11 rushing scores this season. Henry was held to just 60 yards on the ground in these two teams’ previous meeting, which included five Baltimore turnovers. It is well within the range of outcomes for Henry to see much greater volume after seeing 20 or more opportunities in seven of his last eight games, dating back to Week 6 against the Rams. Again, the paths to him putting up a separator score are much thinner than in other spots on the slate, considering his minimal pass game involvement, but the “100 yards and multiple score” outcome is firmly in play here. Keaton Mitchell appears to be healthy after getting in a full session on Thursday, so the team should have their primary change of pace option again this week. Finally, the Ravens boast the top net-adjusted yards before contact matchup on the slate, with Baltimore ranked second, and the Bengals ranked 28th in that metric.

The low weekly pass volume from the Ravens can be slightly offset by their rushing struggles in the red zone, with Henry averaging only 2.11 yards per carry on 47 attempts where it matters most. Which is to say, there is always the threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson accounting for four or more touchdowns, which is likely what is required for him to return an elite fantasy score, considering an expectation of modest volume through the air. As we’ve talked about in multiple instances this season, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are really the only two pass-catchers to play near every-down roles for the Ravens, with DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely all contributing in package roles. Most notably, there is a recent emphasis on going big with personnel, introduced through fullback Patrick Ricard and tight end Charlie Kolar, which is notable because the team is not really using both Andrews and Likely on the field together at elevated rates. Andrews is the greater red zone threat but has seen no more than six targets in a game since Week 4, while Likely has made numerous mental errors in the previous two games that took touchdowns off the board. We’re effectively just touchdown hunting here. Flowers should see a good deal of coverage from standout corner DJ Turner when the Bengals go to man, slightly denting his true ceiling in this spot.

How cincinNAti Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Justin Herbert played on Monday night just seven days after having surgery on his broken left hand, leading the team in rushing in yet another game.
• RB Omarion Hampton returned in Week 14 from a seven-game absence.
• T Trey Pipkins missed practice on Wednesday as the Chargers continue to struggle through significant injuries to their offensive line.
• T Jawaan Taylor did not practice on Wednesday, and swing tackle Wanya Morris saw his season end in Week 14 due to a knee injury. The Chiefs are down three offensive linemen currently after G Trey Smith returned to practice on Wednesday.
• Both defenses rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.
• The Chargers have won five of their last six, while the Chiefs have lost four of their last five, now finding themselves with only a slim 16% chance of making the postseason. Kansas City needs to win out and get some help to make the playoffs.
• Both offenses rank in the top 10 in PROE, although the Chargers rank 15th since Week 8.

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers currently occupy the No. 5 seed in the AFC at 9-4, two games behind the Broncos in both the division and for the No. 1 seed, and just one game ahead of the Texans and Colts in the battle for the No. 7 seed. Their four remaining games will put them to the test, with games against the Chiefs in desperation mode, the Cowboys in desperation mode, the Texans fighting for their playoff lives, and the Broncos fighting for the No. 1 seed. We’ve seen this team overcome numerous key injuries this season, primarily to their offensive line and backfield. They enter Week 15 with the same injury concerns up front, but got back rookie running back Omarion Hampton in Week 14 following a seven-game absence. The Chargers continue to rank in the top 10 in PROE, but that falls to 15th in the league since Week 8, averaging only 26.7 pass attempts per game in the second half of the season. A defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer to everyone but the Jaguars in that span (Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Raiders, and Eagles) has allowed them to be much more balanced despite the mounting injuries.

Hampton returned to a modest 31% snap rate a week ago, but handled 15 opportunities (13 carries and two targets) on 23 offensive snaps, getting in the end zone once through the air. I expect his snap rate to climb significantly in his second game back, potentially getting into the 50-60% snap rate range against the Chiefs. At the same time, he is unlikely to see an opportunity at a comparably high rate to what he saw in his first game back, which should smooth the volume expectation a bit. Expect a near-even split between him and Kimani Vidal, against a Chiefs defense ceding 4.1 yards per carry (13th) and 19.2 DK points per game (seventh) to opposing backfields this season. The Chargers have utilized a near-even split in zone and man/gap concepts this year, something that has remained consistent since Week 8, but have experienced much greater success behind man/gap. Of note there, Hampton saw only two of 13 carries behind man/gap in his first game back, serving more as a between-the-tackles grinder for the Chargers. There is not much here in the way of expected upside.

Rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden burst onto the scene for the Chargers in Week 6, which coincides with a decrease in utilization for veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen. As we’ve discussed previously with this team, it is really only Quentin Johnston that operates in a “standard wide receiver role,” with all of Ladd McConkey, Gadsden, Allen, and rookie wide receiver Tre’ Harris rotated throughout the formation as the team aims to generate mismatches around the field. McConkey has only two games since Week 6 with a snap rate over a modest 76%, while Allen has played over 60% of the offensive snaps only twice in that same span. Standout cornerback Trent McDuffie returned to a limited session on Wednesday for the Chiefs after playing just nine offensive snaps in their loss to the Texans a week ago, making it likely he does not miss time here. I would expect him to see a fair bit of Johnston on the perimeter, considering the structure of the Los Angeles offense, which leaves the remaining pieces as the likeliest paths for volume to accumulate. That gives McConkey the best chance to lead the team in targets, although he has not seen more than seven looks since Week 9, with the team averaging so few pass attempts per game in recent weeks. Nothing truly stands out on paper here beyond saying “McConkey should lead the team in targets.”

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• One of the primary questions on any slate is, “is there a way for Super Josh to be unleashed?” That does not change in Week 15.
• TE Dalton Kincaid practiced in full on Thursday, his first such practice since returning from a hamstring injury.
• The Patriots are mostly healthy coming out of their Week 14 bye.
• The playoff implications are massive in this one, with the Bills chasing the Patriots for the AFC East crown, the Patriots fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after winning 10 straight, and the potential for the Bills to fall into a tie for the No. 7 seed with a loss.
• Both teams average 27.0 points per game or more.

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How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

The Bills rank 23^rd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging 29.5 pass attempts (26^th) and 31.2 rush attempts (second) per game. They average the second-most yards per game (383.7) and the fifth-most points per game (28.9), while their defense has held opponents to an average of 307.1 yards (10^th) and 22.5 points (14^th) per game. They have held all but four opponents to 24 points or fewer, with quarterback Josh Allen going nuclear in the four games on the other side of that sample. That’s right, folks, Super Josh has appeared in three of four games in which the Bills allowed more than 24 points this season. One of the key matchups in this game that will likely influence the Bills’ offensive tendencies is a Buffalo defense allowing a touchdown on 59.46% of opponents’ red-zone trips (20^th) against a New England offense scoring a touchdown on only 51.06% of their red-zone trips (25^th). If the Patriots can break through early, there are clear paths that lead to the Bills opening up their offensive structure in a borderline must-win game.

Lead back James Cook averages 19.2 rush attempts per game while Allen has accounted for 6.7 rush attempts per game, leaving roughly 4.3 rush attempts per game to the combination of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. The most interesting aspect of that setup is the opponent, with the Patriots facing only 22.2 rush attempts per game (second fewest) and 32.3 pass attempts per game this season. They have allowed only 4.0 yards per carry while giving up an explosive run at a lowly 3.6% clip. Which is to say, the pure rushing matchup for Cook leaves a lot to be desired, and he went for just 49 yards on 15 carries the first time these two teams met. Even so, the structure of the Buffalo offense is such that there are always paths to 100 yards and multiple scores on the ground for Cook, which keeps him in GPP consideration most weeks.

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The team leader in route participation for the Bills this season is Khalil Shakir at a lowly 69.4%. The team signed both Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks to the active roster in recent weeks, but it remains to be seen how the wide receiver rotation shakes out with a healthy Joshua Palmer. I would expect Cooks to be the first player headed for a potential healthy scratch on game day, unless Keon Coleman returns to the shadow realm. Even so, not a single pass catcher saw more than 58% of the offensive snaps a week ago, which includes both Kincaid and Dawson Knox. It is simply extremely difficult to project any of the eight primary pass catchers (five wide receivers and three tight ends, with the receivers likely in flux due to the health of Palmer) for meaningful volume on a weekly basis. For example, there have been only two instances of a single Buffalo pass catcher seeing more than five targets over the previous month, a 10-target game for Shakir against the Texans and a seven-target game for Knox last week against the Bengals. Good luck trying to figure out where the individual upside is coming from this week.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Head coach Dan Quinn already ruled out QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) for Week 15.
• RB Chris Rodriguez (groin) did not practice on Wednesday, potentially forcing the Commanders into a two-headed timeshare between Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols.
• The glue of the Washington defense, Bobby Wagner, is likely looking at an absence this week.
• TE Zach Ertz is done for the season after suffering his second torn ACL in Week 14. His career could be over after playing 2025 on a one-year deal.
• RB Tyrone Tracy returned to a full practice on Wednesday, out of the team’s Week 14 bye.
• “Washington backfield” is a situation worth monitoring this week – the matchup demands attention, the offense has clear run-leaning tendencies, and the timeshare could be moving from three-headed to two-headed.

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

Quarterback Marcus Mariota has started six games for the Commanders this season. In those games, the team has averaged 30 pass attempts per game with a well below average -4.2% PROE. For comparison, that value would rank 30^th in the league over the course of the full season. Furthermore, those values are propped up by a 50-attempt game against the Broncos in Week 13, where the team lost by one point. Which is to say, this appears to be a run-first team that becomes a run-heavy team with Mariota under center. Bolstering their chances of continuing with that stance deeper into the game this week is an opponent that struggles to defend the run, in a game with a low 2.5-point spread. One final note is that the Commanders ran 58 offensive plays or fewer in Mariota’s first four starts before 67 in a three-point loss to the Dolphins and 90 (!!!) in a one-point loss to the Broncos.

The potential absence of Chris Rodriguez is likely a bigger deal to the state of the slate than most will realize, and it all starts with the matchup. The Giants have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (while facing 50 fewer rush attempts than the Bengals, who are the worst in the league against the position), ceded 16 total touchdowns to the position, are dead last in the league in yards allowed per carry (5.8, a ridiculous 11.6% higher than the Bengals), and have ceded the highest explosive run rate at a robust 9.3%. Furthermore, over 63% of Washington’s rush attempts come behind man/gap concepts in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontally spread offense, and the Giants are allowing a borderline ridiculous (no, scratch that, completely ridiculous) 6.98 yards per carry against man/gap concepts this season. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been effectively left for dead in fantasy circles after Rodriguez took over lead back duties, but the underlying metrics for both backs are similar in almost every aspect except that Bill has lost two fumbles. The Commanders rank 11^th in the league with 28.0 rush attempts per game, the spread is only 2.5 points, and we could be getting a more condensed backfield, should Rodriguez miss. Pay close attention to this situation this week.

I honestly would have loved to see Terry McLaurin’s snap rate jump more than 11% in his second game back after playing on 51% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 13, which was the first game he finished since Week 2. That said, there is likely some imbalance there as the team was shutout in Week 14, leading to a lowly 52% snap rate for Deebo Samuel as well (about 20-30% lower than his norm). Which is to say, there is the potential for McLaurin to return to an 80-85% snap rate against the Giants, and there is also the potential for the team to be bringing him along slowly after botching his attempted return in Week 8 when he aggravated the injury, leading to three additional missed contests. The Giants continue to be near the league lead in man coverage rates (third at 39.2%), and McLaurin has seen a 0.32 TPRR against man in 2025 after accounting for a 36.1% air yards share against man in 2024. Furthermore, the injury to Zach Ertz likely forces the Commanders into elevated rates of 11-personnel, which should benefit all of McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Noah Brown this week. We saw very little 12-personnel used when John Bates missed two games earlier in the season. The release of Chris Moore leaves Jaylin Lane and Treylon Burks as the package receivers, both likely to rotate through in modest roles.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Geno Smith has yet to practice this week with injuries to his throwing shoulder and back. It was Kenny Pickett who stepped in for the injured Smith at the tail end of their Week 14 loss.
• T Lane Johnson remained sidelined through Thursday for the Eagles. He is looking at another absence this week.
• A.J. Brown in the previous four games: 0.34 targets per route run (TPRR), 41.2% air yards share, 2.85 yards per route run (YPRR), six red-zone targets, a 41.6% first-read target rate, and 0.64 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR).
• Pickett has a career 6.2 yards-per-attempt mark, which is about the same as Spencer Rattler (6.2) and Justin Fields (6.17) this season.

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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Wednesday that Smith is considered unlikely to start in Week 15, setting Pickett up to grab a spot start against the Eagles. The Raiders are already averaging the second-fewest yards per game this season (257.2) and Pickett has a career 6.2 yards-per-attempt mark. For comparison, Rattler has a 6.2 yards per attempt and Fields has a 6.17 yards per attempt this season. Smith was at a modest 6.67 yards per attempt in this offense for the bulk of the season. There is just very little to get excited about, any way you slice it. Adding a run game averaging the fewest rush yards per game doesn’t help matters, highlighting one of the biggest shortcomings of this offense, their offensive line. This is likely to be an uphill battle for the Raiders from the start.

The Raiders have the worst rush grade and have generated the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt this season, while also averaging the fewest yards per carry. Again, not a lot of hope here, any way you slice it. Ashton Jeanty has operated as a true workhorse since the team’s Week 8 bye, playing 81% of more of the offensive snaps in four of those six games. He has also averaged 6.3 targets per game in that span, leading to three games of 23 or more opportunities in his last six. Even so, he managed more than 15.3 DK points in only two of those games and has one game all season north of 24.8 DK points, which was a three-touchdown outburst against the Bears in Week 4. The Eagles have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 25.2 DK points per game to opposing backfields, representing the clearest path for the Raiders to move the ball in this spot.

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The departure of Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline and subsequent signing of veteran Tyler Lockett has left this team with Tre Tucker, rookies Dont’e Thornton, Jack Bech, and Lockett at wide receiver, with tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer rounding out the pass-catching corps. The Raiders have been utilizing 12-personnel on over 70% of their offensive snaps since trading away Meyers. What is more shocking is the fact that no pass-catcher has a TPRR greater than 0.19 (Mayer), 1.48 YPRR (Bowers), or 0.37 FP/RR (Bowers) since Week 10. Those are borderline atrocious marks. Things should not materially improve with Pickett under center, leaving very little to get excited about this week.

HOW philadelphia WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Jaguars are remarkably healthy. No one missed practice on Thursday. 
• The Jets have some injuries. QB Justin Fields missed on Thursday with a knee, QB Tyrod Taylor missed with a groin, TE Mason Taylor missed with a neck, and LB Francisco Mauigoa missed with a neck. 
• The Jets look poised to start undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook .
• Breece Hall is going to get the ball, but it’ll be in a terrible matchup and bad game script. 
• The Jets pass catchers are cheap, and should see volume, but they’ll be catching passes from a subpar QB. 
• Trevor Lawrence has been turned into a game manager. 
• Travis Etienne played a lot last week after Bhayshul Tuten fumbled, but it would make sense for the Jags to take it easy on Etienne in a matchup that they should control. 
• There isn’t going to much passing game volume to go around for the Jags pass catchers 
• The best DFS play from this game is the Jags defense. 

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-10 Jets can’t even tank right. They’ve picked up two wins after their MLB-style fire sale at the trade deadline and are no longer the frontrunners for the first overall pick in April’s draft. A big part of their “success” was the move to Tyrod Taylor, who, despite being past his prime is still an NFL caliber QB. This week, they are going to tank properly because of injury. Taylor and Fields both haven’t practiced, and it looks like Cook is going to get the start. Who is Cook? Good question. After consulting the internet, it appears he is an undrafted rookie QB who played for Missouri. He was a practice-squad player for most of the year, before being called up when Fields went down with a knee injury. He saw his first NFL action last week and completed under 50% of his passes, scoring 4.5 DK points on 30 dropbacks. There isn’t much of a sample size, but all the evidence points to the fact that Cook is going to get cooked. The Jets should be able to able to lose with style to finish the season. 

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The Jets have been playing fast (No. 6 in seconds per play), but that’s mostly because they’re always losing. They did speed up with Taylor under center, but it’s not worth drawing any conclusions about how they’ll play with Cook on such a small sample. It’s likely the Jets will slow down while the game is close, but it’s also likely the game won’t stay close very long. The Jets O-line (25^th ranked by PFF) has been a major disappointment. They were projected to be a top-10 unit coming in the season, but they’ve been poor, especially up in the middle where center Josh Myers is ranked as the 37^th player out of 38 qualified centers. The Jets want to run (32^nd in PROE) but are forced to pass (14^th in pass rate), because they don’t stay close enough on the scoreboard. It’s difficult to predict that the Jets are going to do anything other than try to win on the ground, but there are a lot of variables with a new QB.  The Jags have been tough against the run (No. 6 in DVOA), and above average (10^th in DVOA) against the pass. The Jags have faced one of the highest PROEs against, with the league treating them like a pass funnel. Even so, expect the Jets to try and run before ultimately passing in the second half once they’re down multiple scores. 

HOW jacksonville WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Marvin Harrison Jr. did not practice Wednesday after missing Week 14 with a heel injury.
• RB Trey Benson was not activated from injured reserve at the expiration of his 21-day practice window, meaning his season is done.
• RB Emari Demercado returned to practice in some capacity (writing this before the full injury report is released from Arizona), indicating he is likely to return after three missed games.
• Both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb missed practice Wednesday for the Texans.
• The top spot from this game is the “Houston backfield,” with the uncertainties surrounding the health of both Chubb and Marks in the back of our minds as the week progresses.
• The Texans have run 70 or more offensive plays in four of their previous five games.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

First off, there are numerous key injury situations to work through with the Cardinals. Head coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters Wednesday that Harrison’s heel issue is similar to that of Max Melton, who returned to practice after two missed games. That would seem to indicate that MHJ is in line for another absence against the Texans. Then there’s the state of the backfield. Benson will remain on injured reserve through the end of the season after he failed to be activated within his 21-day practice window, while Demercado returned to practice in some capacity Wednesday. Demercado missed time earlier this season, after which he returned to a roughly 40-60 timeshare with Bam Knight. Thusly, my broad expectations here are that the Cardinals will be without MHJ and the backfield will be a near-even split between Knight and Demercado. Beyond that, we know the Cardinals have largely been forced to the air since Jacoby Brissett took over under center, leading the league in pass rate, pass attempts per game, and pass rate over expectation (PROE) in that span. There is no reason to expect that to change against the league’s top defense this season.

As was discussed above, the likely return of Demercado doesn’t change much from an expected usage perspective for Knight, with the likeliest outcome being a massive cut in the usage for Michael Carter and an injection of Demercado into a likely timeshare. That is effectively what we saw in the two healthy games from Demercado that were played without both James Conner and Benson. That leaves us with a clear timeshare in a matchup against a Houston defense holding teams to 4.1 yards per carry and just 94.3 yards on the ground per game, while facing the third-fewest rush attempts per game at 23.2. 

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PFP the OWS pennant

One of the biggest issues within the broader setup for the Cardinals in this game is an expectation of elevated pass rates behind an offensive line down both starting offensive tackles, with a quarterback that has taken 29 sacks in eight starts, against a defense ranked sixth in sacks this season (36). That does not inspire a ton of confidence in their expected ability to move the football effectively here, and we could see numerous quick three-and-out drives from them. We know we’re likely to get extreme concentration in volume through the air on Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, but we have to question the individual upside against a Houston defense ceding the second-lowest completion rate (57.11%), the third-lowest yards per route run (YPRR) (1.25), the fourth-fewest yards after catch (YAC), the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Expect an uptick in 21-personnel usage through Elijah Higgins, while Andre Baccellia steps into the WR2 role and Jalen Brooks and Trent Sherfield share WR3 duties.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This is a matchup between two teams near the top of their conference but who have rivals nipping at their heels.
• Both of these teams have been living in close games all season, with 20 of their 26 combined games being decided by one score.
• Denver has been leaning on the pass more in recent weeks since the injury to J.K. Dobbins, ranking second in the league in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks.
• Packers WR Christian Watson has been dominant since returning but has his toughest matchup of the season this week.
• Denver’s wide receiver and tight end usage continues to change on a weekly basis making them very difficult to predict.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers had a huge win last week at home against the Bears to take the lead in the NFC North and move into the 2-seed in the NFC. After a mid-season lull in which they lost ugly games to the Panthers and Eagles, while barely beating the Giants, we have seen Green Bay rally the troops and become a clear contender. The Packers have won four straight games, including the last two in convincing fashion over division rivals Detroit and Chicago. Their remaining schedule after this week features a road game against the Bears, followed by hosting the Ravens, before ending the season in Minnesota. All of those games will be difficult and this Green Bay team that plays close games seemingly every week will be in for some battles over the next month.

The Packers are throwing the ball at a higher rate this season than they have in past years, but are still somewhat guarded and like to “pick their spots” in terms of when they are aggressive. Lead running back Josh Jacobs has dealt with some injury issues throughout the season, but appeared to be back to himself last week with a big workload in that huge divisional game. However, Jacobs was unable to practice Wednesday or Thursday due to his lingering knee issue and his status is now in question for this week, with head coach Matt LaFleur saying “we’ll see” on Thursday in regards to the availability of Jacobs. If Jacobs were to miss, the Packers would lean heavily on backup Emanuel Wilson, who handled 30 touches against Minnesota the last time Jacobs was inactive. Considering the status of Jacobs and the fact that the Packers play the Bears again next week, it would be safe to expect Wilson have a larger role in this game even if Jacobs is able to play. In any regard, the Broncos run defense allows the fewest yards per carry in the league and ranks fourth in run defense DVOA, while Green Bay still has some offensive line injuries to overcome. It is fair to expect the Packers will have to work very hard for every yard in this matchup.

This leaves a situation where Green Bay may have to move the ball through the air, which isn’t a great spot to be in against an elite Denver secondary. The Broncos play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and their perimeter cornerback duo of Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss has been playing phenomenal football all season. Christian Watson has been the top option in recent weeks, but this matchup does not bode well for him or Romeo Doubs on the outside. After those two, the Packers are rotating a lot of players and mixing up formations and personnel groupings. Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden returned last week, while Dontayvion Wicks has been playing very well when given opportunities. Expect the Packers to throw the ball at a higher rate than usual in this matchup, but do so in a conservative way and spread the ball around. Ultimately the Packers are likely to be content protecting the ball and moving methodically on offense, betting on their defense doing the same thing to Denver and trying to win a close one in the fourth quarter.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Lions are still on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture.
• Detroit lost All-Pro defensive back Brian Branch to a torn Achilles in their last game, leaving their man-heavy coverage scheme vulnerable against a talented Rams passing game.
• Detroit’s offense has become more concentrated as the season wears on due to the loss of Sam LaPorta and the shrinking role of David Montgomery.
• The Rams backfield has turned into a true committee situation as the team embraces the breakout of second year running back Blake Corum, who is coming off his best game as a pro.
• Matthew Stafford, who continues to have a dominant season with 35 touchdown passes and only five turnovers, is likely to be pushed this week in a high leverage game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions season has not gone as they hoped, but they are still very much alive in a wide-open NFC. Detroit enters Week 15 with an 8-5 record and sits in 8th place in the conference, a game behind the Chicago Bears, who are currently the 7th seed. The Lions beat the Bears handily in Week 2 and will face them again in Week 18, so if they can simply stay within a game of them heading into that final week, they will be able to control their own destiny and play their way in. That will be no small task, however, as the three games prior to that final week’s contest are this road game against the current NFC #1 seed, a home game against the current AFC North leading Steelers, and a road game against an always difficult Vikings team that already beat them once. Getting down to the point here, Detroit is already in “playoff mode” and has very little margin for error.

Detroit’s offense is coming off a game in which it dominated the Cowboys in an explosive and efficient manner. They averaged 7.2 yards per play (they lead the league in this statistic for the season at 6.2 yards per play), and Jared Goff easily went over 300 passing yards, while the touchdowns primarily came from the running game with Jahmyr Gibbs scoring three times and David Montgomery scoring once. Goff threw 34 passes in that game, with the “Big 3” of Gibbs, ARSB, and Williams combining for 25 of the team’s targets. Tight end Sam LaPorta was lost for the season in Week 10 against the Commanders, and since the,n the Lions have played three full games with everyone else on the field. In those games, the “Big 3” have accounted for just over 70% of the team’s targets. In this game, where they face a strong Rams run defense (3rd in run defense DVOA, 1st in PFF run defense grade), and we expect a lot of scoring, it stands to reason that Goff will be throwing often, and those targets will once again condense on this trio.

While the Rams have strong defensive metrics, the Lions will not simply abandon the run. Los Angeles has given up some strong games on the ground, including two weeks ago when the Panthers imposed their will. The Lions will attempt to stay as balanced as possible, especially early in the game. They will also look to involve their running backs in the receiving game, as some teams have had success against the Rams doing so this season. The Rams play a zone-heavy coverage scheme that is susceptible to intermediate areas of the field and particularly against in-breaking routes, as we saw last week when Michael Wilson posted a massive game against them. The film on Wilson’s performance looks eerily similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s style of play, and the matchup seems ripe for a massive game from ARSB. The team’s usage of Jameson Williams has expanded since head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, and he is used in more creative ways. We saw the Lions use screens to get the ball to him quickly last week and his speed is incredibly hard to defend on crossing routes against man coverage, but given the Rams primary coverages we can expect him to be used more in a vertical fashion to open things up underneath and a lot of his targets to come from hitches and outbreaking routes once he gets a defender’s hips turned. 

The Rams are a very good defense, but they also play a style that allows opponents to move the ball and have some vulnerabilities. In terms of who the Rams will be most concerned with, I actually believe Williams will be a top priority for them to contain. The reason for this is that most teams have a player like ARSB, just not one as good as him. On the other hand, the speed of Williams is a unique threat that very few teams bring to the table. An offense like Detroit’s should be able to generate offense, and their game plan entering the game will be focused heavily on getting Gibbs and ARSB the ball in space. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Carolina is coming off a bye week and enters Week 15 tied for the NFC South lead with the Bucs, who they play twice in the last three weeks.
• The Panthers backfield has evolved into a full-blown committee with Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle splitting the touches for their run-based offense.
• New Orleans is 2-2 with rookie QB Tyler Shough as their starter, including a victory in Carolina just a few weeks ago.
• Saints running back Alvin Kamara appears likely to miss another game, leaving rookie Devin Neal in a workhorse role.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How carolina Will Try To Win ::

This isn’t rocket science. Only the Jets run the ball at a higher rate relative to expectation than the Panthers, who are even more likely to operate with this approach now that both of their dynamic running backs are healthy and playing well. Yes, you heard that right. I called Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle dynamic in the year 2025. They have earned it, however. Dowdle’s run earlier this season when Hubbard was out was incredible, and he only really slowed down as the huge workload started to take its toll. Likewise, Hubbard was a revelation in 2024 as the lone bright spot on a putrid offense, and his ability to shine in that offensive environment was very impressive. After battling early season injuries, Hubbard is back to full health and had his best game of the year in Week 13, while both backs should be fresh coming out of the team’s Week 14 bye. The last time we saw Carolina in action, they were pulling off an upset over the Rams in which Dowdle and Hubbard combined for 37 touches while Bryce Young attempted only 20 passes. We should expect that trend to continue as long as the game script allows it to, which this week projects to not be an issue.

When the Panthers do throw the ball, their primary option is rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, whose production has been up and down, but he is coming on strong in the second half of the season. He has four touchdown receptions in the last three games and has two games of 99+ receiving yards in the last six weeks after doing so only once in the first two months of the season. Second-year receivers Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette are the next men up, with Coker serving primarily as a slot receiver and Legette operating as a perimeter option that is used more downfield. Coker is coming off his best game of the season, and both he and Legette have shone at different times, but never in the same week. Ultimately, this is a run-first team whose primary focus will be their backs with McMillan the focal point of their passing game, but they will not force him the ball if other teams scheme him away.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Titans rookie QB Cam Ward has been held under seven yards per pass attempt in 12 of 13 games this season.
• Tony Pollard had his best game of the season last week against the Browns strong run defense.
• San Francisco is in the thick of the NFC playoff race and only a game behind the division leaders, while coming off their Week 14 bye.
• The 49ers are averaging 29 points per game since getting their offensive skill players back to full health in Week 11.
• Christian McCaffrey has 22 or more PPR points in 10 of 13 games this season, including three games of 35+.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The biggest issue for the Titans offense this season has seemingly been pass protection, as they rank 31st in the league in sacks allowed despite not trying to be an aggressive passing team. Most of the time game script hasn’t allowed Tennessee to play conservatively, however, as their inability to sustain drives and score points gives opponents so many possessions that inevitably they fall behind and defenses tee off on Cam Ward, whose receivers are one of the worst groups in the league and struggle to get open. The team is 2-11 and everything about this season has been disappointing after the excitement of adding Ward with the first selection in April’s draft. It is hard to expect a much different outcome, however, when you give him a questionable offensive line, mediocre defense, and arguably the worst group of skill players in the league. It is somewhat similar to the rookie season for Bryce Young with Carolina, where he simply didn’t have enough to overcome all the challenges on the roster.

Looking at things from a more optimistic perspective, the Titans are coming off their best offensive performance of the season against a very good Browns defense and this week they get to face a 49ers defense that is solid and well coached, but profiles in a way that in theory should be ideal for the Titans offense. The 49ers are last in the league in blitz rate and QB pressure rate, while also ranking 22nd in PFF coverage grades. If there was ever an offense who could benefit from facing a defense that doesn’t get much pressure, it is the Titans. The 49ers also rank 26th in PFF run defense grade and have given up strong games to opposing running backs in several instances in recent weeks. The biggest problem for the 49ers is their pass defense is designed in a way that relies on Nick Bosa and company getting pressure up front without needing to send extra rushers and their run defense is designed in a way that expects their front four to occupy blockers, while their linebackers (led by Fred Warner) cover ground and make plays on ball carriers. The 49ers have been without both Warner and Bosa for a long time now, but their defensive scheme/approach has not changed. All of that being said, they may have turned a corner as in their last two games they held the Browns and Panthers to an average of 8.5 points and 241 total yards per game.

The Titans have the third highest pass rate in the NFL, but that is mostly due to the game scripts they have faced. They are coming off a game where their running game provided production for basically the first time all year, as Tony Pollard had 25 rushes for 161 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last week. Expect them to try to build on that success against this 49ers defense as they look to slow the game down and limit possessions. Pollard and Tyjae Spears had been splitting work, but the nod this week has to go to Pollard after a performance like that. When the Titans do take to the air, expect Ward’s primary targets to be fellow rookie Chimere Dike, who plays primarily in the slot, and tight ends Chig Okonkwo and Gunnar Helm. These three all do the majority of their work in the short to intermediate areas of the field and can make plays after the catch. The 49ers drop a lot of bodies into coverage and do a good job of protecting the boundaries and downfield areas, so Ward will gladly take what is given to him in the quick passing game. Ultimately the Titans will not be trying to get into a shootout with the 49ers in San Francisco, so we should expect them to be conservative with their tempo and try to extend drives and shorten the game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• The Colts lost starting QB Daniel Jones for the season with an achilles injury last week and will either be starting high school football coach Philip Rivers or unpolished rookie Riley Leonard this week. 
• Indianapolis has lost four of their last five games after a 7-1 start to the season and is barely holding onto a playoff spot, with a daunting schedule remaining.
• This is a matchup between the league’s top run defense, Seattle, and the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor.
• Play volume could be muted in this game as both teams lean heavily into the run.
• The Colts will once again be without top cornerback Sauce Gardner in this game, which alters the scheme and effectiveness of their coverage.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Talking about the rest of the Colts season prior to this seems like a bit of a fool’s errand after they lost Daniel Jones for the season in Week 14. They will be rolling with the raw and unproven rookie Riley Leonard or 44-year old Philip Rivers who has not played football since 2020. Seattle has arguably the league’s best defense and has been dominant at home when facing questionable offenses, so this sets up as close to the toughest possible matchup for Indianapolis this week. The Seahawks’ dominant performances have come against teams with below average running games, however, which gives a glimmer of hope to the Colts. 

It should be fairly obvious that the Colts will be giving the ball to all pro running back Jonathan Taylor as often as possible in this matchup, despite Seattle being the league’s best run defense. The Colts offensive line ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted line yards per attempt and Taylor has 974 yards AFTER CONTACT this season. To put that in perspective, only seven running backs in the NFL have more total rushing yards than what Taylor has after contact. Simply mind blowing. When the Colts do pass, it will likely be focused on the short areas of the field and quick first and second reads regardless of who they have under center. Rivers struggled with arm strength and his quirky delivery late in his career and it is now a half decade later, while Leonard is very raw as a passer and will certainly be confused by an elite defensive scheme in Seattle. In theory, Rivers should know where he needs to go with the ball but is likely to be late or physically unable to get it there at the right time, while Leonard has the arm to make some of the necessary throws but won’t know the right time to be pulling the trigger. This should result in almost no downfield throws for the Colts as long as they can stay somewhat in the game, which more or less will result in Alec Pierce doing a lot of cardio on the perimeter. However, tight end Tyler Warren and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should see high target rates on short passes. None are elite after the catch and the Seahawks are elite at tackling, so their volume will likely be very empty, but we can have a very good idea of how the Colts will approach this one. They may actually throw the ball at a high rate on first down to set up second and third downs of five yards or less, with the idea that in those less predictable situations JT has a greater chance of breaking off an explosive run. When it is all said and done, the Colts will need JT to have a massive performance and to limit their overall passing volume to have a chance in this one.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Vikings visiting the Cowboys for a 48.5 total game that’s currently dead even. J.J. McCarthy is fresh off the most impressive game of his career, in which he threw 3 touchdowns with no picks against the Commanders in a 31-0 demolition, while the Cowboys are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive after a three-game win streak was stopped by Detroit last week. Dallas has been one of the best offenses in the league (especially at home), averaging 29.3 points per game on the season, while also allowing 29.7 points per game – this is no surprise to anyone who’s been paying any attention to the league this year. Almost every game the Cowboys are involved in is a shootout. Can McCarthy keep up? That’s the question.

DALLAS

On the Dallas side of things, Javonte Williams has one of the best roles in the NFL, playing 72% or more of the snaps in all but one game this season. Wow. Javonte has handled 20+ opportunities in more games than not and is 4th in the league in red zone rush attempts – the role is absolutely elite. This Showdown has some bargain prices with only two players at $10k or above, so any pricing commentary has to consider that context, but $9,400 for Javonte still feels like a bargain given the volume he sees. After years of being a pass funnel defense, the Vikings have kind of flip-flopped, partly due to game script when losing, but they’re facing just a 49% opposing passing play rate. You’ll need to consider the scenario you’re building for, as a lot of that volume is due to the Vikings getting whomped, and in a competitive game, we should expect more pass attempts. Hunter Luepke and Malik Davis are splitting the RB role, with Davis getting work on the ground while Luepke handles some passing game work, but both of them are very lightly involved. I prefer Davis as Luepke has several games without a single touch, but both of these guys are thin (Davis has a season-high of 4 carries). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, CeeDee Lamb rapidly cleared the concussion protocol and will play, giving Dallas their 1-2 punch of Lamb and George Pickens at wide receiver. Something important here is that the Vikings have started bracketing opposing WRs1 for the last few weeks, and it’s worked very well for them, so I’d expect them to do it here. It’s obviously a little harder to just bracket one and ignore the other given this duo, but if they follow the same strategy, we should expect Lamb to have some really tough coverage all night, which pushes me to like Pickens more. Now, maybe this is wrong, and they choose Pickens instead, given his more upside and stronger performance this season, but they’re likely to be bracketing one of them, so one way to play this if you aren’t completely confident in betting it’s Lamb with the tough coverage, is just setting a max 1 rule between Lamb and Pickens. If the game is competitive and Dallas racks up passing volume, it does seem highly likely that one of Lamb or Pickens will get there, given how the offense is so concentrated around the two of them. Despite the tough matchup, I’m fine leaning into the Dallas passing game. Ryan Flournoy will play the WR3 role, but don’t get fooled by looking at game logs; his big games have come without Lamb, and with Lamb on the field, he has just 120 receiving yards on the season (yikes). KaVontae Turpin is, to me, a better bet as they always design some stuff for him, including carries, and he has elite per-target upside.

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is expected to play through his questionable tag, but he’s had a really tough time finding ceilings lately. Working in his favor is that his price has started to dip back down a bit, and at $6,600 it’s at least reasonable to think he can find a ceiling if he gets into the end zone, which he’ll almost certainly need as his per-target yardage upside is atrocious. He’ll get some volume and has a safe floor of around 8-10 points, so 14-16 with a touchdown at $6,600 would give him good odds of being in winning lineups, and the matchup is appealing. If the Vikings focus on eliminating one of the top wide receivers, it should result in some extra volume heading Ferg’s way. TE2 Luke Schoonmaker is a thin punt option.

MINNESTOA

Check back Monday morning for Xandamere’s Monday Night Football Slant!