XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 9 and we’re officially at the midpoint of the regular season. Thursday has the Ravens in Miami for a whopping 51.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 7.5. Lamar Jackson is expected to be back after, oddly, barely missing playing Week 8. It cannot be overstated how much of an upgrade this is for Baltimore after they managed 30 against a listless Bears team last week, but otherwise scored 20, 10, and 3 points in their games without Lamar. The Ravens are shockingly 2-5 on the season, but in a weak division, they are still very live for the playoffs (and perhaps even the favorites with Lamar back). They’ll be playing with a ton of motivation here. Miami, of course, sucks. 

MIAMI

On the Dolphins side of things, De’Von Achane has seen his snaps drop to 55% and 67% the last two weeks after previously not being any lower than 73% in a game this season. The last two games were blowouts, and surely that had something to do with it, but of course, there’s some real blowout risk in this game, too. The bad for Achane is that he’s only averaging 13.4 carries per game. The good news for Achane is that he’s very talented and averaging a massive 6.25 targets per game. He’s not quite CMC, but the receiving role is kinda close to CMC’s. It’s tough for me to want to spend $11.4k on a running back who’s only broken 20 DK points three times this year and only really had one smash ceiling performance, but the floor is rock solid due to all of the passing game work, and there’s clearly ceiling as well. RB2 Ollie Gordon is a bit expensive for the RB2 role, especially considering his very modest workloads in non-blowout situations. The one thing in Gordon’s favor is that he has 10 red zone rushes (compared to Achane’s 16), so there is some goal-line vulture opportunity, but it’s possible a touchdown doesn’t get him into optimal lineups given his price, relatively few touches, and lack of passing game work. RB3 Jaylen Wright got his first touches of the season late in last week’s blowout win, but it’s unlikely he’s a difference maker, as the odds of Miami blowing out the Ravens are fairly low. Overall, Achane is fine (especially given the volatility of the skill position players on the Baltimore side), but probably a little bit overpriced relative to his ceiling.

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In the passing game, without Tyreek Hill and with Darren Waller hurt again, it’s basically Jaylen Waddle, Achane, and a pile of people most folks haven’t heard of. Waddle obviously has much-improved upside without Tyreek (outside of Cleveland curb-stomping Miami, Waddle has 95, 99, and 110 receiving yards in the games since Tyreek got hurt). His target volume is still relatively modest, but if Miami keeps this one close, he could push for 8-10 targets, and he’s also seeing more downfield work with 3 receptions of 40+ yards in those four games. Similar to Achane, Waddle is a good on-paper play whose only real sticking point is his price. At $10.4k, he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver, and on this offense, he’s more of a high-end WR2 than a WR1. WR2 Malik Washington has at least 5 targets in every game since the Hill injury, though that’s topped out at 36 receiving yards as he’s working shorter areas of the field while Waddle runs more deep routes. The volume puts him firmly in play for me, especially in a game script that is likely to see Miami passing heavily as the game goes on. Nickeil Westbrook-Ikhine has actually outsnapped Washington in all four non-Tyreek games, but while Washington has 23 targets in those games, NWI only has 8. Yikes. NWI has been a solid target-earner at previous stops in his career, so I think there’s some upside here, but it’s a very risky spot to attack given his lack of volume. Washington is the far superior on-paper play, but NWI makes sense as a contrarian tournament option. Miami also had Cedrick Wilson on the field for the first time last week, and with Dee Eskridge questionable, Wilson would be in line for some work – he’s flashed some talent earlier in his career as well and could be a punt play, as could Eskridge if he plays. I wouldn’t play these guys together.

Primary tight end Julian Hill is also questionable with an ankle injury and has not practiced this week, which last game led Tanner Conner and Greg Dulcich to split the tight end snaps. If Hill plays, he’s primarily a blocker who mostly just sucks any upside from the other TEs, but he is cheap enough to use as a thin value option. Tanner is the more interesting pass catcher who is overpriced if Hill plays, but a potentially useful piece if Hill is out, while Dulcich was just recently signed to the active roster and could potentially get a couple of targets if Hill misses. 

BALTIMORE

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Chicago will likely play this game without RB D’Andre Swift (groin) and WR Luther Burden III (concussion), while they are likely to get TE Cole Kmet back.
• The Bengals defense has given up 15+ PPR points to an opposing running back nine times in eight games.
• Ja’Marr Chase has been targeted an incredible 42 times in the last two games, which is good for an incredible 51% target share.
• After throwing eight touchdown passes in the first four games, Bears QB Caleb Williams has only one touchdown pass in the three games since their Week 5 bye.
• Three teams allow over 6 yards per play to their opponents, and two of those teams are playing in this game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Chicago’s 4-3 record feels a bit hollow, as their wins have been against mediocre to weaker teams and/or have been the result of favorable luck and bounces. However, the Bears have shown they can be a very productive team and score points consistently throughout the season, especially in softer matchups. Last week in their 30-16 loss to the Ravens was the first time this year that Chicago was held below 21 points, and even in that game they had the ball at the Ravens 1-yard line late in the game but failed to punch it in. The Bears have three losses this season, which have come against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens (post-bye near full strength). Those are three very well coached teams with solid defenses. This week, Chicago faces a Bengals defense that is the worst in the league by most metrics and may be without arguably their best player in defensive end Trey Hendrickson due to a hip injury.

Chicago came out of their Week 5 bye and had a run-focused approach that was highly efficient and effective in wins over the Commanders and Saints. Last week against the Ravens that plan hit a speed bump as the Ravens held Bears running backs to 3.8 yards per carry and gradually pushed the game script to a spot where Chicago had to throw the ball more. It is pretty evident that head coach Ben Johnson is doing his best to control and manage the situations QB Caleb Williams is in as he tries to mold him into the quarterback the Bears believe he can be. An important concept in coaching/teaching/parenting is setting strict expectations early and you can always loosen them up, whereas if you give too much leash to start it is always hard to reel them back in. Johnson seems to be navigating through that process with Williams as he works on his footwork, progressions, pre-snap reads, and other important aspects of being an elite quarterback. 

Luckily for the Bears, this week against the Bengals they should be able to do whatever they want for most of the game. Cincinnati made the previously inept Jets offense look dynamic in Week 8 and is very poor against both the run and the pass. Expect the Bears to open things up with a run-focused approach and build passing game concepts off of that. This should mean a strong workload for RB D’Andre Swift, who has been very good for Chicago since their bye week. We could also see rookie RB Kyle Monangai get more involved in this matchup, as he has been playing very well and the Bears are likely to be focused on their running game and have success doing so. I would expect around a 65-35 split between Swift and Monangai in this matchup, with both running backs playing well with their opportunities.

The Bengals are near the bottom of the league in blitz rate and pressure rate, and the loss of Hendrickson will only exaggerate that issue. Chicago will likely be without rookie WR Luther Burden III, while the statuses of TE Cole Kmet (back) and WR Olamide Zaccheaus (knee) are up in the air. This leaves a situation where the Bears passing game will likely concentrate on wide receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, with rookie TE Colston Loveland potentially getting another chance to prove himself in a full-time role, although this time it will be against a Bengals defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against opposing tight ends. The Bengals lack of pressure and blitzing should give Caleb Williams plenty of time to operate and keep him from having to force very much. His mistakes usually come when he is pressured heavily and early in a possession, while he has shown an ability to make plays with his legs when things break down. The Bengals coverages will likely try to keep Chicago’s passes to the underneath variety, but I would expect a strong and efficient game from Williams here with some calculated shots taken as Johnson looks to loosen the reins a bit in an elite matchup.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• I’m writing this game up first this week, before any practice reports are released, because we have a good idea of the health of both squads. We’ll circle back later in the week if there are any drastic changes.
• Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy appears set to return as the starter in Minnesota. Carson Wentz is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery on his non-throwing shoulder after playing two games with a dislocation and torn labrum.
• The Lions remain one of the healthier teams as we approach the midway point in the season.
• Detroit pieces are unlikely to project well in this game given current roles and expected volume.
• The Vikings have played from two-high at the highest rate in the league, and Lions skill-position players have stark splits against the primary alignment this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have had very little continuity this season, mostly due to their quarterback situation. McCarthy started the season but injured his ankle in under two starts. Wentz then came in and smoked the Bengals and played the Steelers to a three-point game before dislocating his shoulder and tearing his labrum in a tight win over the Browns. He gutted the injury out for the following two games but the team dropped both to the Eagles and Chargers. And now they are expecting McCarthy back under center after Wentz elected surgery to fix his shoulder. Also consider the three-game suspension for Jordan Addison to start the season. That effectively shakes out to three distinct seasons through seven games, maybe more – with each change a new puzzle to piece together for head coach Kevin O’Connell. There are some teams still searching for their identity – the Vikings have not been able to truly hammer down what they want their team to look like on the gridiron. We also must remember that McCarthy has all of two professional starts under his belt, effectively making him a “rookie in Week 3 of his first season.” As such, I don’t know how much we can read into their 14^th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE), or modest 57.1 plays per game and 28:30 average time of possession. This team is battling.

We now have a three-game sample with both Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones healthy and on the field together this season, during which time neither back has eclipsed a 60% snap rate or 16 opportunities. They now face a Lions team forcing opponents into the seventh highest PROE, with only the Bears and Browns below neutral this season. The Lions face the fourth-fewest rush attempts per game (22.1) while also holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry (11^th), meaning there isn’t a ton of upside from this backfield in Week 9.

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The Lions have run the fourth-most man coverage this season (38.0%), against which it’s been all Justin Jefferson for the Vikings. That said, he’s only averaged 0.44 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) on 0.33 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.85 yards per route run (YPRR), albeit while notching an elite 56.8% air-yards share. In short, the Vikings have really struggled against man in 2025. Much of that sample is dominated by the five games started by Wentz, and McCarthy has fared much better against man in his small two-game professional sample. McCarthy went 13-for-18 for 180 yards with two touchdowns, and three interceptions against man in Weeks 1 and 2, with a 101.4 rating, 10.0 yards per attempt (YPA), and 0.54 fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) – orders of magnitude better than the 0.19 FP/DB and 4.43 YPA of Wentz. This appears to be a matchup tailor-made for Jefferson. Jalen Nailor and Adam Thielen have been splitting snaps since Addison returned from suspension, for an offense heavily reliant on 11-personnel. Finally, tight end T.J. Hockenson has still not looked right after his multi-ligament knee injury on Christmas Eve 2023, and the matchup also does him no favors.

HOW DETROIT WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Panthers QB Andy Dalton (thumb) did not practice Wednesday while Bryce Young (ankle) returned to a full session. It certainly appears as if Young is in line to resume starting duties against the Packers.
• Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (calf) remained sidelined Wednesday after missing Week 8.
• Packers LB/DL Lukas Van Ness (foot) missed practice again Wednesday.
• Fantasy’s overall TE1 in PPR, Tucker Kraft, has dominated Cover-3 this season with 0.24 targets per route run (TPRR), 2.90 yards per route run (YPRR), and an elite 0.74 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR), and the Panthers rank third in Cover-3 utilization at 41.2%.
• The Packers have quietly scored 27 points or more in all but one game this season (exactly 27 four times) and rank fifth in scoring.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers have one clear outlier this season – their 30-0 win over the Falcons in Week 3. They forced three turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown in that game. Outside of that one week, the Panthers have forced just four turnovers, have one sack or fewer in five of eight games, and have scored more than a modest 13 points against only the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Dolphins. Furthermore, they have averaged only 14.5 points per game on the road this season, 27^th in the league. So much of what they try to do offensively stems from their successes on the ground, and Young’s average intended air yards ranks 25^th in the league of quarterbacks with five or more appearances this season. That effectively makes them an offense that is reliant on marching the field and stringing together drives. It then makes sense how they were able to find offensive success against the Cardinals (in garbage time when they went prevent), Cowboys, and Dolphins. In other words, the Panthers are likely to struggle offensively against teams capable of generating disruption – the Packers are one such team.

Head coach Dave Canales made some open-ended remarks regarding his backfield this week, effectively saying that the team wanted to give Chuba Hubbard the benefit of the doubt after he “served the team” for so long. Reading between the lines could yield a conclusion that his days as the starter are over. Now, we have no idea to what extent that could influence the workload of Rico Dowdle, but it at least appears as if Dowdle will be charged with more work than a one-for-one rotation of drives like he had seen the previous two games. That is firmly in the land of speculation, but it as least worth keeping in mind moving forward. The Packers are holding opposing offenses to just 3.7 yards per carry (fourth) behind 2.09 yards allowed before contact per attempt, but they did just surrender 5.2 yards per carry to the Steelers with Van Ness out of the lineup, something that appears likely again this week.

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Slot man Jalen Coker worked his way up to a 66% snap rate in his second game of the season in Week 8, for an offense that utilized 11-personnel at near-league-average rates (about 70%). That rendered Brycen Tremayne and Jimmy Horn useless on 13% snap rates each, while the tight-end stable continued in a three-man timeshare at the position. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette are now the only near every-down pass catchers in the offense. Young averages a lowly 7.0-yard aDOT while the Packers have forced the fourth-shallowest aDOT this season (also 7.0), meaning the likeliest scenario leaves the Panthers attacking the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. That also leaves very little upside from any Carolina pass catcher. There isn’t much else that needs to be said here, to be honest.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Hassan Haskins has not practiced this week (as of Thursday) with a hamstring injury.
• TE Chig Okonkwo went from limited Wednesday to DNP Thursday with a foot injury.
• WR Calvin Ridley (hamstring) remains sidelined, having not practiced since Week 7 preparations.
• Small sample alert, but Gunnar Helm has notched a 0.26 TPRR, 2.22 YPRR, and 0.44 FP/RR against Cover-3 and Cover-4 shells since Week 6 (without Calvin Ridley), and the Chargers run those coverages on almost 60% of their defensive snaps.
• The Chargers rank fourth in PROE, but Justin Herbert attempted only 25 and 27 passes in the two games the Chargers truly controlled this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers are currently fourth in PROE while averaging 25.4 rush attempts (22nd) and 37.5 pass attempts (second) per game. But that doesn’t tell the whole picture, and here’s why. The Chargers have really only controlled two of their games this season: a 37-10 beatdown of the Vikings in Week 8 and a 20-9 defensive stalwart effort against the Raiders in Week 2. They have allowed 20 or more points in each of their other six games. In those two comfortable wins, quarterback Justin Herbert attempted just 25 and 27 passes versus 43 team carries and 26 team carries. We could then reason that the expected aerial volume would be much less than current projections if the Los Angeles defense is handling business, as they should in this matchup.

We could then take that one step further and say that Kimani Vidal handled 23 carries in a similar game environment to the one we expect here against the Vikings, in a game played without Hassan Haskins (trending towards missing Week 9). Adding to that, from a likely-scenario perspective, is the fact that the Titans have allowed opponents to run at the third-highest rate over expectation this season, behind only the Jaguars and Raiders, while facing 29.1 rush attempts per game (tied for sixth most). Vidal has handled a 64% snap rate or higher in each of the previous three games without Omarion Hampton and stands to benefit the most from the combination of matchup, expected game flow, and absence of Haskins. The Titans have allowed 4.9 yards per carry (26th) behind the second-most yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.78), making this a pristine matchup for Vidal on paper.

Tre’ Harris is the best blocking wide receiver on the roster, which helps to explain why and how he remains so involved in the offense. He has led the team in snaps at the wide receiver position in two of the previous three games. Furthermore, the team had a miniature come-to-Jesus moment three weeks ago and stopped messing around with Tyler Conklin and Will Dissly at tight end, instead feeding rookie Oronde Gadsden a featured role in the offense. All he did with that bump in usage was amass a team-leading 309 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets during that span. The truth of the matter is that Gadsden allows the offense to stress more areas of the field while giving opposing defenses yet another weapon to account for, combining with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and the backfield to generate mismatches all over the field. And offensive coordinator Greg Roman is having an absolute field day recently, averaging 30 points per game during that stretch after cracking 23 points only once in the team’s first five games. The Titans are in zone at the league’s seventh-highest rate this season, against which Allen (0.28 TPRR, 2.37 YPRR, and 0.58 FP/RR) and Gadsden (0.22 TPRR, 3.37 YPRR, and 0.60 FP/RR) handily lead the team (McConkey ranks third in all three metrics with 0.17 TPRR, 1.33 YPRR, and 0.26 FP/RR).

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The Falcons are relatively healthy, with only Edge Leonard Floyd (hamstring) and DL Zach Harrison (knee) missing practice on Wednesday. 
• Only RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) missed practice on Wednesday for the Patriots. 
• Kirk Cousins looked totally washed in Week 8, and if he plays, the Falcons offense will suffer. Michael Penix was limited on Wednesday, but if he returns, he’ll raise the floor of the offense. 
• Bijan Robinson had his least opportunities and lowest snap share of the season last week. 
• Kyle Pitts is having his best season, but the bar is low when it comes to Pitts’ best season.
• Drake Maye is good at football, but he never throws many passes. 
• The Falcons present as a run-funnel defense, and Josh McDaniels has been adaptable with his play calling.
• Stevenson has played over 70% of the snaps in three straight games.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Falcons are coming off an embarrassing loss where they weren’t competitive against a 2-6 Dolphins team that looked like they were melting down coming in. The Dolphins defense hadn’t been able to stop anyone, and the Falcons could only muster a sorry 10 points (seven of which were scored in garbage time). Penix has taken a lot of heat for his play, but Cousins is on another level of bad. I’m not sure Cousins was ever an elite talent, but whatever he used to be, he’s not that anymore. That’s not to say that Cousins should get all the blame. The Falcons have been a run-first team (25^th in PROE) that plays slowly (30^th in situational-neutral pace), and they were facing an opponent who was allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry.  Curiously, the coaching staff gave Robinson nine carries on his lowest snap share (60%) of the season. It’s easy to blame game flow, but a closer look makes you question the game plan. The Falcons threw more than they ran on their first two drives, and the game was still 17-3 deep into the third quarter. Robinson fumbled in the red zone on a drive that would’ve cut the lead to seven, and he only touched the ball twice after the fumble. Everyone (including the oddsmakers) anticipated a big game for Robinson based on the way the Falcons had played and the matchup, but all that matters is how the guy calling the plays see things. 

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The Patriots have been strong against the run (No. 5 in DVOA) and hurt through the air (28^th in DVOA). The Patriots are yet to allow a 50-yard rusher on the season and have been victimized by the pass when teams have stayed away from standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Mike Vrabel oversaw a Titans pass-funnel defense for many years and appear to have brought the same scheme to New England. Drake London missed last week with a hip injury, but it appears likely he’ll be available for a game where the Falcons should have an elevated pass rate. The Falcons’ O-line hasn’t been doing them any favors (21^st-ranked by PFF).  LT Jake Matthews has been holding his own, but the rest of the O-line has underperformed. Vrabel isn’t going to let you beat him on the ground, and after the Falcons couldn’t open holes against the Dolphins, it’s likely that they’ll realize their best shot is through the air. The Falcons are going to throw, and if Cousins starts, they’re going to have a bad time. 

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Ricky Pearsall remains sidelined through Thursday while Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey logged full practices Thursday.
• QB Brock Purdy remained limited through two sessions while Mac Jones was a full-go in each.
• CB Paulson Adebo remains sidelined for the Giants, as does Cordale Flott and Art Green. TE Daniel Bellinger has yet to practice this week.
• It is kind of sad to consider, but I think there is a legitimate chance that the 49ers sit Purdy and Pearsall with this game at MetLife Stadium (notoriously high injury rates on that turf), even if they progress well in practice.
• The 49ers have faced the second-lowest rate of man coverage, but the Giants have utilized man at the second-highest rate this season. Jennings has an elite 0.35 targets per route run (TPRR) against man in 2025.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers have seen the highest rate of two-high (59.1%) and second-highest rate of zone (79.1%) due to the injuries they have been forced to overcome this season. Purdy has played only two games, Jennings has missed two games, Pearsall has missed four games, Kittle has missed five games, and Brandon Aiyuk has yet to play. The offense looked like a Kyle Shanahan offense for the first time in Week 7 with the return of Kittle from injured reserve before they struggled to get anything going against the tough Texans team that leads the league in yards allowed per game. All of that to say, it is a true testament to Shanahan and the rest of this coaching staff that this team is currently sitting at 5-3 with a perfect 3-0 divisional record through eight games. They have averaged the second-most plays per game and the 13^th-most yards per game through all of that. Additionally, five of their first eight games have come on the road, with Week 9 making it six of nine. Something to keep in mind as far as their injured players are concerned is the turf at Met Life, something that could influence Shanahan’s decision to start or rest Purdy and Pearsall here. I tentatively expect Jones to start under center and for Pearsall to remain out.

McCaffrey’s opportunities through eight weeks: 32 // 20 // 32 // 28 // 31 // 25 // 32 // 14. He has seen six or more targets in every game and eight or more targets in all but two games. He has also averaged 3.2 yards per carry or fewer in all but two games. The good news for McCaffrey is that the Giants are currently allowing the most yards per carry (5.7) behind the most yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.88), making this a sparkling matchup on paper. Brian Robinson remains on hand for change-of-pace duties behind McCaffrey but has seen nine or fewer opportunities in every game since Week 1.

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Under the assumption that Purdy and Pearsall are inactive Sunday, we should expect another start from Jones while Kendrick Bourne maintains a featured role in the offense. The 49ers have carried low 12-personnel rates and high 21-personnel rates while being one of the more fluid offenses as far as personnel are concerned, likely leaving Kittle as the only near every-down pass catcher. Bourne and Jennings are likely to be in the 80-85% snap-rate range, while Demarcus Robinson is likely to fill in for whatever 11-personnel snaps are required. Jennings has led the team in targets in each of the previous two games while playing through multiple injuries of his own. He is priced all the way down at $4,300 and has managed full practices in each session this week, only the second time he has logged consecutive full practices all season (also did so last week). That’s important considering the Giants are likely to be without their top three corners in Week 9, play the second-highest rate of man coverage (41.3%), and Jennings carries an elite 0.35 TPRR against man this season.  

HOW new york WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Indianapolis continues to churn out elite offensive production, leading the league in points per game, yards per play, and several other major metrics.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is the current front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year and has had FOUR games through eight weeks where he scored three touchdowns.
• Pittsburgh’s defense is being mentioned in the same breath as the Bengals and Cowboys, with embarrassing performances in the past two weeks.
• Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf has had a solid start to his career in Pittsburgh, but is in a position for his best game in the black and gold, as the game script will likely necessitate him being heavily involved.
• Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin tend to find ways to keep games competitive, which increases the likelihood of this game turning into a back and forth shootout in the second half.

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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Jonathan Taylor has been absolutely incredible this season. Taylor has played eight games and in four of them, he has scored three touchdowns. To put that in perspective, there have only been 12 TOTAL three touchdown performances in the ENTIRE NFL this season. This puts the scoreboard at JT 4, the rest of the NFL 8. Not too shabby. To add to that scoring dominance, Taylor is second in the NFL at 5.9 yards per carry and leads the league in rushing yards. He has also expanded his game and become more of a threat in the passing game, as his 25 receptions put him on pace to easily surpass his previous career high of 40 receptions in a season. All of these things are telling most people something we already know, which is that JT is awesome. This is all being laid out at the start of this breakdown as a metaphor for how the Colts will approach this game in the same way that JT sets the tone for the rest of their offense.

The Colts decision to start Daniel Jones at quarterback has clearly been the right one and his elite performance tells us a lot about several things. First of all, how bad is Anthony Richardson? Second of all, what was Brian Daboll doing with Jones in New York? Finally, how good is Jaxson Dart if he can look as good as he does right now with Daboll calling the shots and a misfit cast of skill players? But I digress, we are here to talk about the Colts.

Jones has been terrific and obviously we know the Colts are built around JT, but their skill players also fit together seamlessly. Michael Pittman Jr. is a very good wide receiver, but not an elite “alpha” type of talent. He fits perfectly into this offense as he is a big target and strong in the short or intermediate areas, while being versatile enough to move around the formation. Rookie TE Tyler Warren is versatile and athletic, being effective in short yardage situations and also breaking open some plays up the seams and/or by breaking tackles after the catch. Josh Downs is a quick and talented slot receiver who can create separation and pick apart certain matchups and coverages. Alec Pierce plays a high snap rate and provides big play potential and forces defenses to respect the deep ball, which opens things up for the running game and the other receivers underneath. Pierce plays a much bigger role for this team than the box score sometimes shows, as his presence opens things up for everyone else and the efficiency of the running game and short area passing opens things up for him downfield – it truly is beautiful complementary football and this explains why the Colts have been a historically good offense so far this season, averaging 33.8 points and 385 yards of offense per game.

This week, the Colts juggernaut gets to face a Steelers defense that has been horrific by Pittsburgh standards. The Steelers have missed the third most tackles in the NFL this season, which could be a problem against the best tackle breaker in the league. Only the Bengals and Cowboys are giving up more yards per game to opponents, while only the Browns, with Dillon Gabriel at QB, and the Patriots, who turned the ball over five times, were held under 21 points by this Steelers team. Making matters worse for Pittsburgh is the fact that they lost defensive back DeShon Elliott, who had been one of their better players on that side of the ball, to a knee injury last week. The Colts should have no problem moving the ball down the field and explosive plays are likely to be easy to find. We have seen running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have massive games against the Steelers in various spots this season. There should be no shortage of offensive production in this one and the Colts are likely to once again start their attack around Taylor and take advantage of the Steelers for whatever adjustments they make to slow him down.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Denver has quietly been one of the best teams in the league and is realistically a couple of plays away from a perfect record. 
• The Broncos will be without the services of the reigning defensive player of the year, Patrick Surtain II, for the next four to six weeks.
• Houston’s offense came alive in Week 8, while their defense has once again been one of the top units in the NFL in 2025.
• The Texans should be getting back wide receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, while they are likely to be without tight end Dalton Schultz.
• Houston is highly unlikely to have success running the ball in this matchup due to their own struggles and Denver’s strength.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How denver Will Try To Win ::

As explored last week, the two Broncos losses this season were in Weeks 2 and 3, by a combined four points, on the road, and against two very good teams. Each game was decided by a field goal at the end of the game and this team is just a couple of plays away from a perfect record at this point. Obviously you can say “what if” for a lot of teams, but the margin for Denver has been relatively small in those losses and they have handled their business in many games this year, while also managing a signature road win over the Eagles and a dramatic comeback over the Giants. Denver is just a very good football team with the potential to be great if they can clean some things up.

We discussed this last week in the Dallas game and hit the nail on the head. When the Broncos are able to play “ahead of the sticks”, they are dangerous and dynamic. Early down success opens up the whole playbook and allows them to create chunk plays and be successful on third downs. The Dallas defense is so bad that they were constantly allowing the Broncos to move the ball on early downs. As evidence, here are the yards gained by Denver on their first downs during the first half last week::

• 7
• 1
• 0
• 16
• 21
• 10
• 25
• 2
• 7
• 32
• 11
• 4
• 11
• 6
• 8

It was just so easy to move the ball and they were in rhythm and successful in all areas last week. This week against Houston provides a far different test. The Texans have the 4th ranked DVOA defense in the league, including the #1 pass defense and a middling 16th ranked run defense. Houston has PFF’s 2nd ranked pass rush and is able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks despite rarely blitzing, ranking 21st in the league in blitz rate. The Texans defense is designed to make opponents work very hard to gain yards and doesn’t give up anything easy, which is a far cry from the Cowboys “everyone eats” defensive approach. Denver is coming off their best offensive game of the season and has scored 77 points in their last five quarters of football, but this will be a difficult test for sure.

J.K. Dobbins is still the lead back and had a great game last week, despite RJ Harvey stealing the show (and the TDs). These two should be a focal point this week as the Broncos will need to have success running the ball on early downs. WR Courtland Sutton is a very good player, but also very matchup sensitive. He is likely to draw the attention of Texans star cornerback Derek Stingley in this one when the Texans play man coverage, and the Broncos have shown they will not force the issue in those spots and Stingley’s skill set is one that could potentially erase Sutton when they are matched up. Lucky for Sutton, however, the Texans play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in the league and he should run at least half of his routes away from Stingley. Week 8 breakout WR Troy Franklin is likely to find fewer openings in the Houston secondary than he did against Dallas, but the role should remain solid. Meanwhile, the skills of Marvin Mims Jr. will likely be missed this week due to a concussion. This could mean an increase in 2-TE personnel for the Broncos as they look to attack the Texans more aggressively on the ground. It could also mean an increase in snaps for rookie WR Pat Bryant, who caught his first touchdown last week, and a bigger role for TE Evan Engram as a short area extension of the running game. Denver is willing and able to spread the ball around and will be looking to protect QB Bo Nix from an elite pass rush while working for every inch against a very good defense.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Both of these teams enter Week 9 fresh off a bye week and 28 and 31 points, respectively, the last time we saw them play.
• Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. has been the subject of many discussions and trade rumors, while rookie WR Travis Hunter had his best game of the season prior to the bye.
• The Raiders expect to get TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers back from injury, which should help their struggling offense.
• Las Vegas will have a short turnaround after this game, with a Thursday night game against the Broncos next on the schedule.
• The status of Raiders DE Maxx Crosby will have a drastic effect on the outlook for the Jaguars offense and QB Trevor Lawrence.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have been an inconsistent team this season with some big wins and some ugly losses. The first season under head coach Liam Coen has had its speed bumps, but it seems that he has a clear vision and direction he wants to take this team in and at times we see that vision playing out. The last time we saw the Jaguars, however, was quite the opposite. Playing in London against a Rams team that was without All-Pro WR Puka Nacua, the Jaguars were dominated in every facet of the game and lost 35-7. However, the bigger picture of that game shows that much of Jacksonville’s destruction was self-inflicted as they gave up 7 sacks and committed a whopping 13 penalties. Kicker Cam Little also missed a field goal, and the team had a punt return touchdown called back for a penalty. Jacksonville has been the most penalized team in the NFL this season, averaging 9.3 penalties per game through seven contests.

The Jaguars are third in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and rank near the top of the league in raw tempo and situation-neutral pace of play. These are common tendencies we saw from Coen previously in Tampa Bay. However, the Jaguars running game has been inconsistent, QB Trevor Lawrence has had inconsistent accuracy, star wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has lacked urgency and crispness in his play most of the season, and the aforementioned penalties have led them to play “behind the sticks” far more often than is optimal. One of the biggest keys to consistent offensive success is early down success and simply being able to pick up simple and easy yards that set you up for success on later downs. This is especially true for Jacksonville as they consistently get stuffed on early down runs or see Lawrence miss short and easy throws, putting them into second and ten situations rather than second and three or four. It doesn’t sound like much, but all it takes is one missed opportunity like that and then an illegal motion or false start and all of a sudden you’ve killed a drive.

Coming out of the bye week, the biggest question for the Jaguars centers around their wide receivers. Rookie Travis Hunter has run a route on over 80% of Jaguars drop backs in their last two games and had his best game of the season against the Rams, although most of his production came in the second half of a blowout. Coen has talked about the need to increase Hunter’s role and we often see teams like Jacksonville with rookie head coaches make changes in approach after their bye week. There have also been rumors about BTJ’s standing with the team and the potential of him being traded. While that seems like a long shot, it seems likely that these two will at the very least be near equals in terms of how Jacksonville game plans around them. Travis Etienne has had a couple of big runs this season and been “fine” for the most part, but the running game is not going to carry this team. Expect to see a rejuvenated Jaguars offense in this game with a focus on their top playmakers against a Raiders defense that has been very beatable this season.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• New Orleans benched QB Spencer Rattler in their ugly home loss to the Bucs and will be turning to rookie QB Tyler Shough going forward.
• The Saints have operated at the fourth lowest pass rate relative to expectation this season, but have continued to play at a brisk pace under head coach Kellen Moore.
• The Rams enter this game tied for the lead in the NFC North and fresh off a bye week. 
• Los Angeles expects to get all-pro WR Puka Nacua back from the ankle injury that kept him out of their Week 7 game in London.
• The two touchdown spread on this game is the largest on the Week 9 slate, and may not be enough.
• These two offenses lead the NFL in raw tempo, ranking first and second in seconds per play.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have mercifully put an end to the Spencer Rattler experience, although Rattler had actually played well for his abilities and circumstances during the first six weeks of the season. Unfortunately, the last two weeks against the Bears and Bucs he was exposed and started turning the ball over at a very high rate. This week against a talented and well coached Rams defense he would have been in a rough spot once again. The Rams defense ranks second in the NFL in DVOA, which breaks down as second against the pass and eighth against the run. New Orleans has not had much of a running game all season and their passing game is in questionable hands, so moving the ball may be a bit of a chore.

The Saints are nearing the end of the Alvin Kamara era and he is essentially a passing down specialist at this point and not someone they can or should be relying on to grind out runs. Rookie Devin Neal saw the most playing time he has all season in Week 8 and will likely be involved somewhat here as well. The Saints are unlikely to have much success running the ball, however, and the Rams pass rush sacked Trevor Lawrence 7 times the last time we saw them play. This will put an emphasis on short area passing and quick reads to get the ball out of Tyler Shough’s hands quickly. It is unclear how effective that approach will be, but at least schematically it makes sense against a Rams defense that ranks bottom-5 in the league in blitz rate and top-5 in zone coverage rate. The Rams will trust their defensive front to get pressure against the Saints offensive line, so they will play their customary zone coverages and not feel a need to send extra rushers often. This means deep passing will be unlikely to have much success and the Rams are going to bank on New Orleans not being able to run the ball and just giving up short area looks and trusting themselves to make plays after the catch.

New Orleans is not ripe with playmakers with the ball in their hands, while the Rams have missed the fewest tackles in the NFL through eight weeks. This means that the Rams should be able to execute this game plan and the Saints are likely looking at a lot of 3rd and 6 to 12 yards type plays where Shough will probably struggle. The Saints likely won’t have much choice but to throw at a high rate as game script will dictate it and they already play at a fast tempo, but no-huddle and other parlor tricks might be the type of cheat codes they need to sustain drives in this matchup.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• A yearly tradition of this AFC rivalry between two of this era’s dominant quarterbacks comes at a time when both offenses are hitting their stride.
• Bills running back James Cook is having a career year and has 20+ PPR points in five of seven games this season.
• Kansas City WR Rashee Rice has a 28% target share during his two games back from suspension.
• The Chiefs have scored 28+ points in five straight games, while Buffalo has scored 30+ points in five of seven outings this season.
• Buffalo has won the last four regular season matchups between these teams, while Kansas City has won the last four playoff matchups.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs last two games they have won by a combined score of 59-7 as they seem to be hitting their stride after a rocky start to the season. That being said, those games came against a Raiders team in complete disarray and a Commanders team playing without their QB, Jayden Daniels, who is the heart of what they do and the primary reason they are usually able to compete with stronger teams. The Raiders game was a dominant game from start to finish and never really in doubt, but the Commanders took the Chiefs to halftime tied 7-7 prior to the Chiefs systematically taking them apart after the intermission. That two game sample is mostly relevant because that is when Chiefs WR Rashee Rice returned to the lineup. Rice has had a dominant role in the offense since his return and has not missed a beat, with 23+ PPR points in both games and a target share just below 30%.

Kansas City leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation by a relatively large margin this season, as Patrick Mahomes is operating with one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps of his career. Mahomes has also been more aggressive this season, as his 7.4 average intended air yards per pass attempt through eight games is significantly higher than the 6.2 yards he averaged in the same metric last season. Simply put, Mahomes is passing at a very high rate (per usual) but is pushing the ball downfield much more frequently and deeper than he has over the past couple of years when he operated as more of a souped-up game manager. Mahomes is completing 67% of his passes and has a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Simply put, he’s been cooking this season.

This week more than most, we should expect the Chiefs to lean heavily on Mahomes. The Chiefs are likely to be without starting RB Isiah Pacheco due to a sprained MCL he suffered on Monday night, which will leave veteran Kareem Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith as the primary ball carriers. Hunt is solid in short yardage and dependable, but not a player they are going to turn to heavily despite the solid on-paper matchup against the Bills shaky run defense. Smith is explosive and can make plays in space, but the team has not shown a ton of trust in him to date and while he should get some chances this week it once again comes back to this being a high leverage game against an opponent the Chiefs will expect to need to score points against – so Mahomes is their best option.

As for how Mahomes will operate, his primary target is Rice at this point and the team will work to get him the ball in a variety of ways. He is a solid short to intermediate target and works the middle of the field well, while being terrific with the ball in his hands after the catch. The Chiefs even gave him a “Wildcat” snap on Monday night, and are not afraid to use him on screens, jet sweeps, and other gadgety plays to take advantage of his skill set. The other primary receiving options are TE Travis Kelce, who is coming off a huge game, and WR Xavier Worthy. Kelce is no longer the dominant player he once was, but the return of Rice has opened things up for him quite a bit. Kelce thrives on finding openings when Mahomes extends plays and also benefits from the elite play design of Andy Reid which gets him free a couple of times per game it seems. Meanwhile, Worthy’s weekly production is not as dependable with Rice back on the field but he will undoubtedly break off a huge play one of these weeks as teams can’t key in on him.

Buffalo’s run defense ranks 30th in the NFL in DVOA, but a lot of that has to do with some very poor performances against physical, run-oriented teams like the Ravens and Falcons. Outside of those two games, they have actually held up pretty well. They did, however, lose defensive tackle Ed Oliver for the season due to a torn triceps which will hurt their run defense and their interior pass rush. Expect the Chiefs to use the running game just enough to make things easy on their passing game. Mahomes should be busy early in this one and the Chiefs are likely to be aggressive from the outset, as they will want to jump out ahead of the Bills so that Buffalo can’t rely on their own dominant running game and so the Chiefs don’t become predictable and one-dimensional – which would allow the Bills to mask their huge deficiency up front.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has Seattle traveling to Washington for a 48.5 total game with the Seahawks favored by 3. Seattle has been downright good this year with a 5-2 record, while the Commanders have struggled to a 3-5 mark largely due to Jayden Daniels missing multiple games. Seattle is actually tied for the second-best point differential in the NFL with the Lions at +49 (the Colts have an unbelievable +116!). The Seahawks are very good, while the Commanders are better than they’ve played this year, and we should start to see it more going forward. 

WASHINGTON

On the Washington side, the backfield remains unclear as they only have three games all season in which a back played 50%+ of the snaps. It does look like Chris Rodriguez is being phased out, seeing just 4 total touches in the last two weeks despite being back to full health, but Jacory Crosky-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols are splitting the rest. JCM has been almost entirely a 2-down back with just 11 targets in eight games and he’s capped out at 18 total opportunities, but his emergence into the lead back role has also coincided with a string of poor play overall from Washington as they’ve lost several games by multiple scores. JCM did have a nice 16-touch, 31 DK point game in a win against the Chargers in Week 5. He has to worry about being vultured by his own QB, but there is upside here, especially at a bargain price of just $7,400 – not bad for a guy who has commanded almost the entire running back rushing share the last four weeks (McNichols has just 6 carries in those four games). JCM should be considered a shaky floor but solid ceiling play who best fits in rosters predicated on the Commanders keeping the game competitive or winning outright. The matchup here is borderline-nightmarish against a Seahawks D that is allowing the league’s fewest rush yards per game, but running back production is generally more a function of role and overall team scoring than individual matchup. McNichols is primarily a receiving back, and he probably needs to catch a touchdown to reach a ceiling at his elevated price of $4,400.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Terry McLaurin is out once again while Noah Brown is still on IR, leaving the Commanders with Deebo Samuel and then some combination of Chris Moore, Jaylin Lane, and Luke McCaffrey at wide receiver. As an underdog with a good QB and the clear alpha in the passing attack (30%+ target share in games with Daniels), Deebo looks a bit underpriced at $9.6k and is, I think, an excellent overall play. Seattle’s pass defense has been solid, but they’ve also largely faced weaker passing attacks. Seattle has also faced one of the highest pass rates of any team in the league at 65% (3rd highest in the NFL), further boosting the ceiling of the Commanders passing attack. Chris Moore has played three games in place of McLaurin with Daniels and has tied for the lead in end zone targets in that time, giving him ceiling at $3,400. McCaffrey is my 3rd favorite WR here, as he should see the largest boost without McLaurin, while Lane is more of a Deebo replacement. All three of these tertiary WRs are pretty thin options, and I’d rank them Moore -> McCaffrey -> Lane.

At tight end, Zach Ertz is somewhat quietly in an awesome spot. I generally don’t make a lot of DST vs. TE stat comparisons, because teams use TEs in very different ways, but the Seattle defense has allowed a lot of tight end production while really only facing two top TEs in Trey McBride and George Kittle. Steelers, Saints, Bucs, Jags, and Texans TEs have all performed well against the Seahawks, and that says there’s something schematically in their defense that makes it tough to cover tight ends. At $6,200, Ertz is a nice price. He’s 2nd on the team in projected target share, more like a WR2 than a TE, gets the most favorable matchup, is 2nd on the team in red zone targets (behind Deebo)…everything lines up nicely for him. TE2 John Bates and TE3 Ben Sinnott are thin punt options.

SEATTLE

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 9 wraps up with the Cardinals visiting the Cowboys for a 54.5 total game with Dallas favored by 2.5. Dallas, of course, has an elite offense and whatever the opposite is of elite defense, while the Cards are in the middle of some QB controversy. Kyler Murray has been hurt, and when he was healthy, he led the team to a 2-3 record, including losing to the Titans (lol), while backup Jacoby Brissett has kept the team competitive but ultimately gone 0-2 against two very good teams in the Colts and the Packers. Kyler was expected to return after the Week 8 bye but was working with the backups in practice, listed questionable, and now it’s come out that he could be active and “could have a role,” but Brissett is going to start. Meanwhile, the Arizona GM was somewhat noncommittal when asked about Murray’s status as their franchise QB. I have no earthly idea what’s going on here. Brissett is a capable backup, but he is in no way a starting-caliber quarterback for a franchise that wants to contend, while Murray has at least shown that upside in the past, even if this year has not been his finest season. I don’t know. I’m going to assume Brissett is the starter and plays the whole game – just be aware there’s a little bit of additional risk here. 

DALLAS

On the Dallas side of things, Javonte Williams has been a top-scoring running back this year, largely on the strength of his 9 touchdowns in eight games. He’s looked okay on the ground, reaching 100 yards twice and showing some decent passing game involvement, but his success has really been more about his role and Dallas overall offensive strength than it has been about him being super talented. Role will do, though – he’s a home favorite, 3 down running back with little workload competition. They finally started working in Jaydon Blue in the last couple of weeks, only to have him fumble in a ridiculous way last week. I expect Javonte to play at least 70% of the snaps and handle at least 80% of the running back touches, putting him in a very strong position. Blue and Hunter Luepke can be viewed as very thin punt options.

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In the passing game, CeeDee Lamb is back to health and back to his badass self. Lamb has 8+ targets in every game and is averaging 10.5. He’s also averaging just over 100 receiving yards per game, and that includes a matchup against the Broncos. Dude’s a boss. Wide receivers are more volatile than running backs, but overall, Lamb should be viewed as having the highest raw projection of any skill position player in this Showdown. His median outcome is a little lower than Javonte’s, but his ceiling is significantly higher. George Pickens had his highest ceiling games without Lamb (duh), but has still shown upside with Lamb healthy, with target counts of 4, 9, 6, and 9 in games alongside CeeDee. His price has dipped down from life without Lamb to a more reasonable level, and it’s firmly in play as a WR2. He’s a more volatile option than Lamb, but his ceiling is still up there amongst the highest on the slate. After that, we get thin. KaVontae Turpin plays mostly gadgety-type stuff; however, he hasn’t been getting the same kind of schemed red zone usage as we saw for him last year, with just 2 red zone targets all year. Last year, Turpin was a high touchdown equity play even on limited snaps, whereas this year, they’re using him more like a traditional wide receiver. Still, at $2k, he’s in play. Ryan Flournoy and Jalen Tolbert are competing for WR3 snaps, and while Flournoy played more last week, that could well be because the game was a blowout. I would treat them both as highly volatile options and would max 1 on a roster.

At tight end, Jake Ferguson has one of the best red zone roles in the game with 11 targets on the season. Otherwise, he’s a fairly short area yardage guy, and he’ll probably need a touchdown to pay off, but his odds of getting there are always solid. His price is the problem, as at $8k it’s entirely plausible that he finds the end zone but not the optimal lineup, as his per-catch yardage upside is quite low. TE2 Luke Schoonmaker is a thin punt option who generally gets 1-2 targets per game. 

ARIZONA