XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

In what might be one of the toughest Showdowns to build for of the year, Week 12 begins with the Bills visiting the Texans. This game has a 43.5 total with Buffalo favored by 6, and oh boy, it’s a tricky one. Buffalo, of course, is always tough because of how they spread the ball around on offense, while the Texans are a struggling offense but an elite defense. The way to beat Buffalo is on the ground, except Houston’s run game has been terrible. Let’s see if we can figure this one out. 

HOUSTON

We’ll start on the Houston side, where Woody Marks has very clearly passed Nick Chubb to become the lead running back. In the last two weeks, Marks has handled 17 and 19 opportunities to Chubb’s 6 and 5, respectively. He has not looked particularly explosive, but part of that is running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The role looks solid, and teams have been trying to beat Buffalo on the ground, where their defense has been significantly more vulnerable…or has it? We’ve seen four running backs really exploit the Bills, and those have been Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Devon Achane, and Sean Tucker. All of those running backs have something in common: they’re really, really explosive and capable of breaking big plays. I’d still say the matchup is positive, but Marks isn’t exactly in that same category. He’ll also face game script risk against one of the league’s best offenses, and so he’ll need the Texans to keep things close in order to maximize his odds of finding a ceiling. At $9,200, he’s priced a little less than a bell cow RB role should dictate, so he looks like a value, but I’d personally very much prefer playing him with the Texans defense as the likeliest way he gets to ~20 touches is if Buffalo’s offense is held in check. Chubb is an RB2 dart throw.

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In the passing game, Davis Mills has injected at least a little bit of life into this offense, winning a shootout against the Jaguars two weeks ago before struggling against the Titans last week. Encouragingly, he’s thrown 45 and 41 passes in his two starts (and the Texans as a whole threw 40 in Week 9 when Stroud got hurt), and that kind of volume sure makes things look a lot more favorable for Houston’s pass catchers. Nico Collins has double digit targets in all of those three games (after reaching that point just twice in all of Stroud’s full games). It seems odd to say Davis Mills has unlocked him or saved his fantasy season, but it sure looks that way. Nico is an elite receiver, but in a really tough matchup, though, as Buffalo has really clamped down on opposing WR1s, with only three WR1s (Drake London, Stef Diggs, and Zay Flowers) having good games against them. Nico is just as good as any of those guys, but his QB isn’t. A tough matchup and an $11.2k price make it tough to play Nico, but should also result in lower than normal ownership for an elite pass catcher in Showdown – he’s a solid play and perhaps a contrarian one if his total ownership comes in under the 50% mark.

The other wide receivers are rotating with Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Xavier Hutchinson all playing 50-60% of the snaps, and Jaylin Noel playing a smaller WR5 role. Kirk has been legitimately awful this season, topping out at 64 receiving yards in a game and only seeing 7 targets combined in the last two games (out of 86 pass attempts, for a sub-10% target share). At just $2,800, I think you could reasonably try to bet on his longer-term track record of talent, but it requires some real faith. Higgins looks like the emerging WR2 with 14 targets and 9 catches in the last two games, and at $4,600, he’s pretty cheap for that role. Hutchinson is playing the most snaps of the tertiary wide receivers but has shown only modest upside, only reaching double-digit DK points twice on the year, but he’s also quite cheap. Finally, Noel has looked quite talented at times this year, but is playing only around 30% of the offensive snaps. If he got more playing time, he’d be a really strong option, but as it is, he’s still a reasonably cheap value play who has put up scores you’d be happy with at his $1,600 salary four times on the year (not bad). I’d rank these guys as Higgins, Kirk, Hutchinson, and Noel.

At tight end, Dalton Schultz is really the 2nd option in the passing game with 20 targets in Mills’ starts for an elite-for-a-tight-end 23.5% target share. The Bills have absolutely eliminated opposing tight ends, but I’m always a little wary of how I use that data point, as different teams use their tight ends very differently in the passing game. It’s a tough matchup, but hardly an impossible one, and at the end of the day, Schultz is just not priced for his target projection. At $6,200, he looks like a very strong value option. 

BUFFALO

Game Overview ::

By pap324 >>

• The Bears have some injuries on defense. DB Jaquan Brisker missed Wednesday with a shoulder, LB Tremaine Edmunds missed with a groin, LB T.J. Edwards missed with a hamstring, and LB Noah Sewell missed with an elbow.
• QB Aaron Rodgers missed with a wrist, RB Jaylen Warren missed with an ankle, and LB Alex Highsmith missed with a Pectoral injury on Wednesday for the Steelers.
• This game environment hinges on the availability of Aaron Rodgers.
• The Steelers have been passing more than a typical Arthur Smith offense, but that might change if Rodgers can’t play.
• Jaylen Warren downplayed his ankle injury. If he plays, the Steelers backfield is an unpredictable timeshare.
• DK Metcalf is the alpha of the Steelers passing attack, but his upside has been limited by Rodgers short passing preference. He would get a bump if Mason Rudolph were under center.
• Darnell Washington is a massive human and played 71% of the snaps last week
• D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are being used in a similar fashion to how Ben Johnson used his RBs in Detroit
• The Bears passing offense is spread out and has yet to have a game with 40 pass attempts this season.
• This is a meaningful game in the standings for both teams. Both teams are likely to try to limit their mistakes.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 6-4 Steelers come into Week 12 off a contentious, spit-laden win over division rival Bengals. Pittsburgh is clinging to a one-game lead in the AFC North. Their 6-4 record makes them the weakest division leader in the AFC, and if they were to fall out of first place in their division, they would quickly be on the outside looking in at the playoffs. With two games left against the Ravens, Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose any ground. Aaron Rodgers health is at the center of this game, with reports after last week’s game indicating that he has a small fracture in his non-throwing hand. He left the Bengals’ game and didn’t return, but early reports indicate that he is going to try to play. He is truly questionable. If he can’t go, the Steelers offense will be operated by local fan favorite Mason Rudoloph. It’s popular in Pittsburgh to say Rudolph should be a starter, but reality is that he is a mid-range QB2 who is capable of being functional in small doses. If he starts, it’s a downgrade to the offense. The Steelers have been passing (10th in PROE) more than Arthur Smith offenses of past seasons. They’ve been even more aggressive recently (7th in PROE over their last four games), which appears to be a compromise with Rodgers. They’ve been playing at a moderate pace (16th in seconds per play), which appears to be a compromise with Smith, since Rodgers-led offenses have typically used the entire play clock. The result has been a hybrid Smith/Rodgers conglomeration, but if Rodgers is forced to miss this game, there is a chance the offense will revert to Smith’s run-centric style. Rodgers’ health is of paramount importance to this game environment.

The Bears have been beatable (22nd in DVOA) on the ground, and through the air (17th in DOVA). Arthur Smith has long been a “we do our thing” coach, rather than a play caller who attacks his opponents’ weaknesses. The Bears profile similarly against the run and the pass, but are slightly more susceptible to the ground game, which furthers the chances that the Steelers will try to win by running the ball, especially if Rodgers can’t play. The Steelers O-line has been better than expectations (13th ranked by PFF), but they moved down three spots in the rankings after allowing seven pressures on 33 drop-backs against the Bengals lackluster pass rush. The main issue was RG Mason McCormick, who allowed four of those pressures. He was profiled as a strong run blocker and suspect pass protector coming out of college. He has proved to be that type of player in the NFL. The Steelers have an advantage in the trenches when it comes to run blocking, but their pass protection woes have largely been masked by Rodgers quick release. The Steelers are likely to try to win on the ground, unless forced to the air, especially if Rudolph starts.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the previous three games with a toe injury.
• QB Joe Burrow has taken first-team reps at practice on consecutive days to start Week 12 prep – it certainly seems like a possibility he returns earlier than his Thanksgiving target date, in time to face the Patriots in what is a must-win game for the Bengals.
• WR Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for one game for spitting at Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey. He has appealed the suspension and was denied, meaning he will miss Week 12 against the Patriots.
• The player pricing from this game seems to indicate that DraftKings is finally adjusting pricing for the matchup after pricing was loose for the first two-plus months in 2025 (read: the Patriots are all overpriced for their production in a relatively conservative offense).
• This is an elite spot on paper for the New England backfield, and they have given one back 72% or more of the offensive snaps in six consecutive games.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new england Will Try To Win ::

Eight-game win streaks are difficult to come by in the NFL, so let’s take a quick moment and appreciate what the Patriots have been able to accomplish since Week 3. Sure, they faced the easiest strength of schedule during that span, but they also snuck in wins over the Buccaneers and Bills while scoring 23 points or more each time out, including 28 points or more on four occasions. The truth likely resides somewhere in the middle (but biased towards the positive) with this team, in that they probably aren’t sitting at 9-2 through 11 weeks at great frequency if we played this season out 100 times, but they are most certainly making their mark on the season at greater frequency than their preseason win-loss line dictated. The team currently ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but that metric alone is a bit misleading – they rank just 27^th in pass attempts per game while quarterback Drake Maye has attempted a modest 30 or more passes in only five of 11 games. This team wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball while mixing in deep passing behind their run and short passing games on offense, and forcing teams to march the field against them on defense. 

The Patriots have utilized a true lead-back-and-change-of-pace-back two-back system for most of the season, particularly since Antonio Gibson’s season-ending injury in Week 5. Stevenson was the lead back from Week 6 to Week 9 before suffering his own injury, after which rookie TreVeyon Henderson stepped into a borderline workhorse role. That, then, begs the question – how involved will Stevenson be if he makes it back this week? Last week, it was “Stevenson remains the lead back when healthy,” and then Henderson went for more than 30 DK points for the second consecutive game. There is a lot of uncertainty here, but I expect Henderson to maintain a lead-back role that has been good for at least 72% of the offensive snaps in each of the team’s previous six contests. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt, the third-most yards per carry (5.2), and the most fantasy points per game (35.6) to opposing backfields, making this a solid spot on paper for Henderson (with the obvious caveat that there is a level of uncertainty here). 

As we started to get into above, Maye has played some inspiring football, but this offense is no more pass-leaning than the Jets (those two teams rank back-to-back in total pass rate). So, while their PROE remains towards the top of the league, Maye has yet to throw for more than 287 yards or account for more than three touchdowns in a game this season. Sure, he adds a bit of floor-smoothing production with his legs, but we still need a bonus to be paired with three or more scores, or four or more scores to truly achieve ceiling outcome at the position. While we’re here, the fact that he is now the highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings is lol-worthy considering he has not hit a 4x salary multipler on his $6,900 salary once this season (he sniffed it twice in 11 games). Those tendencies have obviously affected their pass-catching corps, with all of Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, and DeMario Douglas each accounting for exactly one game of 4x production on their respective Week 12 salaries. 

HOW cincinnati WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Jaxson Dart (concussion) got in back-to-back limited sessions to begin the practice week and likely needs to upgrade to a full participant Friday to suit up this week.
• WR Darius Slayton returned to a limited session Thursday after missing Wednesday’s practice with his hamstring injury.
• The Detroit secondary is still dealing with multiple key injuries, with CB Terrion Arnold (concussion) and S Kerby Joseph (knee) held out of both practices this week and S Brian Branch missing Wednesday before practicing in a limited fashion Thursday.
• The Lions will continue to be without TE Sam LaPorta, who hit IR before their Week 11 contest.
• The Giants have allowed an explosive run at the highest rate in the league (9.1%) and are now facing one of the most dynamic backs in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs.
• The Lions are averaging 29.2 points per game while scoring 34 points or more in five of 10 games, including 52 against the Bears and 44 against the Commanders after previous losses. They are not coming off a loss and are facing a bottom-feeder opponent at home. Enough said.
• These two teams play the most (Giants, 42.4%) and second-most (Lions, 39.8%) man coverage this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new YORK Will Try To Win ::

Much of how the Giants will try to win depends on the status of Dart considering the team ended Week 11 with the third highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) of any team, in any game, this season – it was veteran Jameis Winston that drew the start under center in that game. They weren’t exactly asking Dart to throw the football around the yard, but they were much more inclined to operate from a balanced position with the rookie under center. The constant threat of Dart’s legs also sustained more drives and allowed for greater efficiency on the ground as teams were forced to account for his dynamism on the ground, as evidenced by the team’s jump in rushing efficiency with Dart under center (3.94 YPC to 4.40 YPC). The team also averaged significantly more rushing production with Dart than without (107.5 rush yards per game without Dart and 134.6 rush yards per game with Dart). 

It has been three weeks since the season-ending injury to Cam Skattebo, during which time Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary have split the backfield almost down the middle, something we thought could change with the team moving on from head coach Brian Daboll following Week 10. That was not the case, with Tracy seeing 19 carries and four targets on 51% of the offensive snaps to the 16 carries and one target of Singletary on 49% of the offensive snaps. Of note, Tracy has yet to record a carry inside the five in the absence of Skattebo while Singletary has yet to notch an explosive run. In fact, Tracy has no carries inside the five all season and Singletary has gone without an explosive run all season. That paints a clear picture for what to expect from this backfield moving forward. Expect Tracy to see the primary role between the 20s while Singletary operates in a clear change-of-pace role in those areas of the field, with the roles switching where it matters most. The Lions have held opponents to 4.0 yards per carry while facing a middling 42.18% opponent rush rate and are nearing full health in the first two levels while struggling on the back end. It’s a middling-to-below-average matchup on paper for a split backfield.

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Volume for the New York pass game could be an issue, regardless of who starts, but the case for the upside appears to reside with Dart over Winston. We’re also waiting to hear whether Slayton will return from a one-game absence due to a hamstring injury – his return to practice, even in a limited fashion, is a step in the right direction. Last week with Slayton out, Isaiah Hodgins immediately stepped into a 79% snap rate after rejoining the team earlier in the week, while the team understandably utilized elevated rates of 12-personnel through their tight-end cadre. This has been a 12-personnel-heavy offense throughout the season, but the injuries at wide receiver have more or less forced their hand. After starting the season in a surprisingly deep aDOT, Wan’Dale Robinson has shifted back to a low-aDOT, slot-heavy player, carrying a 6.8-yard aDOT that is shallower than tight end Theo Johnson since Malik Nabers was lost for the season in Week 4. Slayton boasts a 14.8-yard aDOT as the deep threat while Jalin Hyatt is playing a non-serious, field-stretching-only role (20.4-yard aDOT on 2.6 targets per game since Nabers went down). 

HOW DETROIT WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Josh Jacobs did not practice on Wednesday with what is being called a knee contusion. Initial testing came back clean early this week, but his status remains in doubt for Week 12 against the Vikings.
• WRs Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks were all limited on Wednesday and should play this week.
• A loss by the Vikings doesn’t mathematically eliminate them from postseason contention, but it would drop their chances to “slim to none.”
• After starting the season 5-1-1 and in first place in the NFC, the Packers have dropped two of three and suddenly find themselves on the fringes of the playoff picture.
• Any game involving this form of the Vikings is going to carry a wide range of outcomes, but it is likely up to them to dislodge the Packers from their likeliest game plan and more conservative play calling tendencies.
• Emanuel Wilson saw every running back opportunity for the Packers after Josh Jacobs left the team’s Week 11 win over the Giants.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have been completely hamstrung by ineffective quarterback play this season. A loss to the Packers in Week 12 doesn’t mathematically eliminate them from postseason contention, but it does make things extremely difficult. As such, we’re quickly approaching “oh shit” mode for their season, making this game as close to a must-win contest as there can be in Week 12. I’m starting to be increasingly underwhelmed with the way head coach Kevin O’Connell has chosen to game plan around his young quarterback this season. We’ve seen extreme hesitation to utilize fullback C.J. Ham for most of the season, instead running primarily from 11-personnel through Jalen Nailor in the slot. The reason that is so underwhelming to me has to do with what that means for opposing defenses and how they are able to play the Vikings, leading to the fourth highest rate of man coverage against. Opposing teams are effectively daring McCarthy to beat them deep, which has resulted in his low completion rate (52.9%) and elevated deep throw rate (15.0%).

Jordan Mason continues to be largely phased out of the offense after his struggles with Aaron Jones out earlier in the year. Jones has seen a 67% snap rate or higher in each of the previous two games, handling 15 and 22 opportunities against the Ravens and Bears, respectively. Furthermore, Jones saw six targets in each of those games, elevating both his floor and ceiling in the process. The biggest problem with those looks is that his aDOT currently stands at just 1.1, meaning his “route” is more like “hey, go chip or escape to the flat and we’ll use you as a dump-off option as the third or fourth read” instead of anything that truly boosts his upside. The Packers have held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry this season and are expected to get back LB Lukas Van Ness on the interior, making this a less-than-stellar matchup for the Minnesota backfield on paper. The Vikings have generated a borderline elite 2.42 yards before contact per attempt due to the dynamic nature of their run game, but the strength of the Green Bay run defense is its second level, lowering the chances for breakaway or explosive runs.

The route structure is another issue, with only tight end T.J. Hockenson carrying an aDOT lower than 11.5 (5.3), of the primary contributors. Justin Jefferson (11.5), Jordan Addison (14.4), and Nailor (13.4) are all operating primarily downfield, and Hockenson still doesn’t look right on film after his 2023 ACL tear, at least to my eye. Jones has been in a route at a middling 46.5% this season, but his aDOT (1.1) is laughable. The structure of the offense just looks so flat and unimaginative, which brings me back to a potential causal factor in McCarthy’s to-date struggles. That exploration takes on increased meaning when you then consider the structural tendencies of the Green Bay defense, a unit that has deployed zone coverage at the eighth highest rate while forcing the fewest yards per completion in the league (8.5). Like you’ll see with the Green Bay pass-catchers below, nothing truly stands out on paper here.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Calvin Ridley broke his fibula and is out for the season. Rookie Chimere Dike suffered a chest contusion in Week 11 and did not return, but he practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday. 
• WR Tory Horton missed the previous two games, but the addition of Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline likely limits the former’s role in the offense once healthy.
• Seattle carries the lowest overall pass rate (48.23%) and second lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) into a Week 12 matchup with the Titans in which they are 13.5-point road favorites.
• The Seahawks also rank first in defensive DVOA and fifth in offensive DVOA, one of only two teams to rank in the top five on both sides of the ball (Rams).
• I don’t normally side with Vegas when I see a 13.5-point road favorite, but they probably got this one right.
• The only times the Titans scored more than 14 points since Week 3 were behind two D/ST touchdowns against the Chargers and in that fourth-quarter comeback against the Cardinals in which Emari Demercado fumbled the football crossing the goal line. They were down 21-3 in the second quarter against the Cardinals.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

It’s currently a three-team race to be the most run-leaning team in the league between the Jets, Panthers, and Seahawks, with all other teams significantly more balanced. The Seahawks have parlayed a moderate pace of play with a suffocating defense to yield the lowest pass play rate in the league (48.23%), keeping opposing teams off balance with increased rates of play action and pre-snap motion to average the third-most yards per play behind only the Colts and Bills. Interestingly enough, their defense has held opponents to a 47.83% red-zone scoring rate at home while ceding a touchdown on 72.73% of opposing red-zone trips on the road (the biggest delta in the league), although that split might mean far less against the Titans than it would an average opponent. From a macro perspective, this is a run-first team with a split backfield and heavy emphasis on their top playmaker in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Seahawks have had a slight shakeup of their backfield since their Week 8 bye, with Kenneth Walker leading the way in snaps and opportunities while accounting for 66.7% of the opportunities inside the five. Even so, Zach Charbonnet remains an integral part of the offense while averaging 11.0 carries per game during the most recent three-game stretch (13.67 per game for Walker). That has effectively left the backfield devoid of upside throughout the season, with the two backs seemingly flipping who the lead rusher is on a weekly basis. And while it appears to be Walker since their bye, the split in workload has left both lacking usable ranges of outcomes. Walker has averaged 12.5 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) to the 7.8 of Charbonnet since Week 9. The matchup is a solid one on paper against a Titans defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ninth most), 2.52 yards before contact per attempt (worst on the slate) , and 25.1 DK points per game (ninth most) to opposing backfields this season.

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Shaheed worked his way up to a 54% snap rate in his second game with the team last week, something I expect to continue to grow after the Seahawks acquired him at the trade deadline. What was most interesting to me was the fact that Shaheed effectively mixed right into what the Seahawks had done throughout the season as opposed to the offense fundamentally changing with his addition, which left him as a rotational piece behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That is pretty much how everyone other than Cooper Kupp had been utilized in this pass offense before Week 10. Furthermore, he has already been in a route at a solid 70.7% rate on the limited snaps he has played but has yet to influence the elite role, metrics, and production of Smith-Njigba. Let’s once again pause to appreciate the truly remarkable season being put forth by JSN, who continues to lead the league in targets per route run (TPRR) (tied with Puka Nacua), yards per route run (YPRR) (4.37, leads the league by a mile), and fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.84), of receivers to run more than 20 routes this season. What is craziest still is that he has done all that on 262 total routes. For comparison, Ladd McConkey currently leads the league with 381 routes run, or a whopping 45% more routes than JSN. And for those keeping track at home, JSN’s 43 routes a week ago raised his per-game average to just 26.2 (he had averaged just 24.3 routes per game before Week 11). Tight end AJ Barner and his 5.8-yard aDOT requires absurd volume and or touchdown variance working in his favor to return a usable GPP score.

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Daniel Jones was added to the practice report Thursday with a calf injury. He was limited. We don’t like seeing mid-week downgrades, but this one seems to be far from noteworthy.
• WR Xavier Worthy upgraded from DNP to limited Thursday with a knee injury. I currently expect him to play.
• RB Isiah Pacheco got in a full practice on Wednesday before taking it easier with a limited session Thursday. He looks primed to return from a two-game absence.
• The Colts average the most yards per play (6.4) and are first in the league in offensive DVOA. The Chiefs rank ninth in yards per play (5.7) and are third in the league in offensive DVOA.
• The Colts are ninth in points allowed per game (20.6) while the Chiefs are fourth in points allowed per game (18.1).
• This game is one of the better real-world games of the season, with both sides seeing strength-on-strength matchups.
• Structurally speaking, both of these defenses function similarly. They try and eliminate downfield passing and explosives through the air while funneling elevated rates of targets to the slot.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

Jones has attempted more than 30 passes only four times this season, and only twice since Week 4. The Colts average 27.4 rush attempts and 32.4 pass attempts per game this season. Interestingly enough, Jonathan Taylor only has three games all season with more than 18 carries and is still handily leading the league in rushing and total touchdowns, already having amassed a ridiculous 497 yards on explosive runs. Make no mistake, head coach Shane Steichen should be applauded for the way he has turned around this franchise this season, with his offense one of the most difficult in the league to stay ahead of. He consistently places opposing defenses on their back foot. As soon as opposing defensive coordinators think they have him pegged, he throws different motions, formations, and run-pass options at them. The offense aims to generate mismatches all over the field early and then hammer the football down your throat late, something he has done to great effect this season.

Taylor already has five multi-touchdown games this season, all five of which were three-touchdown games. That is absurd. His 17 total touchdowns handily lead the league, as do his 1,139 yards and 6.0 yards per attempt. He has been nothing short of phenomenal. The Chiefs can also be susceptible to man/gap concepts, behind which Taylor has enjoyed a 66% boost in success rate as compared to behind zone concepts, scoring 13 of his 15 rushing touchdowns in that split. He also averages a ridiculous 7.26 yards per carry behind man/gap concepts. This is the key matchup for the Colts this week – how effective can Taylor be with the Chiefs having watched his exploits this season? No other back sees consistent usage in the Indianapolis backfield.

The offense appears to be 12-personnel-heavy on the surface, something Steichen is using to help generate those mismatches we mentioned above. Heavy personnel alignments structurally force opposing defenses to react, typically towards higher rates of single-high and/or dime. For the Colts, that has manifested into elevated rates of Cover-3 and Cover-4 being played against them, leading to the 11^th-highest zone rate against. If teams show Cover-3, they have the players that can take advantage of one-on-one coverage on the perimeter or gash you over the middle of the field. If teams show two-high, they can gash you on the ground with Taylor. If teams show two-high and sneak a safety into the box, they wash, rinse, and repeat their exploits against Cover-3. Steichen places you into a vicious cycle of playing catch-up, and it wouldn’t be possible without the multi-faceted strain he places on opposing defenses. The macro matchup against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is going to be a sight to behold, with this game shaping up to be one of the better real-world football games we have seen this season. On-field chess match alert. Tight end Tyler Warren has been the team’s preferred weapon against Cover-4 and two-high alignments, offering yet another mismatch they are able to generate during the flow of the game, while Alec Pierce has become the man-beater on the perimeter and Michael Pittman continues to be one of the more well-rounded receivers in the game. Josh Downs’ weekly role is typically at the mercy of the offense’s elevated 12-personnel rates, meaning he is typically held in the 50-65% snap rate range. Spags is dynamic enough that no single pass catcher truly stands out on paper, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Warren or Pierce emerge as the top dog here, depending on the flow of the game.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The Ravens had several players miss practice on Wednesday. WR Rashod Bateman missed with an ankle, S Kyle Hamilton missed with a shoulder, TE Isaiah Likely missed with a calf, QB Lamar Jackson missed with an ankle, CB Keyon Martin missed with a rib, LB Roquan Smith missed with a hammy, T Ronnie Stanley missed with an illness, and OL Andrew Vorhees missed with a foot. That’s a long list, but not all of them are considered serious. 
• The Jets are relatively healthy. DE Will McDonald missed with a quad, and DT Harrison Phillips missed with a foot. 
• The Jets have given up on the season and would prefer to lose the rest of their games. 
• The Ravens need this game as they are desperately trying to make up ground on the Steelers after a slow start. 
• Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the Jets. The Jets were more aggressive in his limited work this season. 
• Breece Hall is the feature back for the Jets, but this is a tough game environment. 
• The Jets have the worst WR group in the NFL by a large margin. 
• The Ravens are massive favorites, and all their player fantasy performances hinge on how badly they want to beat the Jets. 
• Derrick Henry has all the elements for a smash, but his price saw a steep increase, and he has no passing game role. 
• Lamar Jackson is affordable for his upside, but he might not have to do much to get a win. 

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

They won’t. That’s the way all Jets write-ups are going to start the rest of this season because it’s true, but in fairness, losing right now is a good move for the organization. The 2-8 Jets come into Week 12 with their best possible outcome being to get the first overall pick. They traded away their best two defensive players (Sauce Gardner/Quinnen Williams) at the deadline and are currently stocked with draft capital. They have five first-round picks in the next two drafts and two second-rounders next year. That’s seven premium picks, and this team is going to look a lot different by 2028, but for now, they have the worst roster in football. Aaron “Hide and Seek” Glenn has decided to reveal his quarterback ahead of time this week. He announced that Taylor will be playing over Justin Fields. Hilariously, the organization said that they “couldn’t turn Fields into an RB” which is the best way to use him, so they decided to go with Taylor. There isn’t a big sample size of how they want to play with Taylor, so rather than cite their season-long numbers, it’s better to say they have played faster and have been more aggressive with Taylor under center. It’s nearly impossible to know if those trends will hold, but that’s how they have played in a small sample. 

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The Ravens’ defense has been hurt (22^nd in DVOA) on the ground and beaten (21^st in DVOA) through the air. Those are season-long numbers, and the Ravens defense was dealing with a ton of injuries early in the year. They’ve been better since Week 6, with no team scoring over 19 points against them in their last five games. Those games were against LAR // CHI // MIA // MIN // CLE, and while that’s not a murderer’s row of offenses, it’s also not weak competition, and besides Cleveland, all the other offenses are better than the Jets. This game will also be played at home, where the Ravens held the Rams and Bears to 17 and 16 points, respectively. There is a good chance that the Jets score 10 points or less, and it doesn’t help that their O-line has been a major disappointment (24^th-ranked by PFF). The Jets haven’t wanted to throw (32^nd in pass rate over expectation [PROE]), but it’s hard to rely on that number because almost all of it was compiled with Fields under center. There is a good chance the Jets will try and throw more with Taylor, but regardless of how they decide to attack, they are unlikely to find success. Expect the Jets to be more balanced, but to fall behind early and to become pass-heavy in the second half. 

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Browns fans are rejoicing for the first NFL start of rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who replaced Dillon Gabriel in poor weather last week.
• The Raiders showed a notable shift in approach in Week 11 with 42 pass attempts and only 8 running back carries, which is an approach they may be forced to replicate this week.
• Cleveland’s defense is near the top of the league in sacks, while Geno Smith is near the top of the league in sacks taken.
• Expect a heavy dose of RB Quinshon Judkins for the Browns in this game as they look to protect their rookie quarterback.

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns will hand the keys to their offense over to polarizing rookie QB Shedeur Sanders for this cross-country road game against a Raiders team playing on a short week. Sanders was thrown in the fire last week against the Ravens in poor weather, but the Cleveland defense and a low scoring game script allowed Sanders to be mostly protected from having his inexperience exposed. Sanders completed only 4 of 16 passes for 47 yards, while taking 2 sacks and throwing an interception. The Ravens defense has been playing exceptionally well over the last month, and cold, windy conditions did no favors for the offenses in that game, as evidenced by the sub-par stat line posted by Lamar Jackson. This week, there will be no such excuses in the climate-controlled dome in Las Vegas and with a full week of preparation against a middling defense.

The Browns offensive approach will likely focus primarily on rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who has been a focal point for the offense whenever game script allows. In games that Judkins has played and the Browns won or kept within one score, he has opportunity counts of 19, 25, 25, 25, and 20 – an average of 23.2 opportunities per game. Judkins had 13 or fewer opportunities in three of four games, which were not within one-possession, all of which the Browns lost by 14 or more points. The Raiders are 4-point favorites in this game and have only won two games this season, by scores of 20-13 and 20-10. Suffice it to say that the Browns will feel comfortable riding Judkins in a workhorse role in this game for a long time and will be willing to lean on their elite defense to keep them in it. The Browns have been throwing the ball at a rate significantly below expectations all season, and we can safely assume that will be the case once again this week.

When the Browns do pass, expect their tight ends to be heavily involved. Rookie Harold Fannin Jr. and veteran David Njoku both play very high snap rates and run routes on most pass plays. The goal with Sanders will be to give him easy reads and get the ball out of his hands quickly. Such was the case at Colorado for Sanders, where most of the concepts he had success with in college were relatively simple concepts that focused on getting the ball to his playmakers and letting them do the heavy lifting. Sanders led the NCAA in completion percentage in 2024 in large part thanks to this offensive approach. The thing Sanders struggles most with at this point in his career is holding onto the ball too long and trying to ad-lib when things aren’t there early in the play. Multiple times last week we saw his line break down and miss picking up Baltimore blitzes that the quarterback should have identified and shifted protection towards. If the Browns are able to control the line of scrimmage and establish a running game while keeping their passing game quick and focused on the short areas of the field, they should be in good shape. They need to have success in these areas, so Sanders isn’t put into long down and distance situations where the defense can trick things up on him and he is forced to do more than he should at this point in his development. Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman have good matchups against the Raiders secondary, which ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade, but it seems unlikely that the Browns will voluntarily attack that weakness early in the game.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Jaguars have been one of the least consistent teams this season on both sides of the football.
• Jacksonville’s backfield situation will need to be closely monitored as Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten were very productive last week but are both nursing injuries now.
• Brian Thomas Jr. may return to the lineup for Jacksonville to play his first game alongside Jakobi Meyers.
• Arizona’s offense has been fun the past few weeks with Jacoby Brissett under center and has an interesting matchup with the Jaguars defense in Week 12.
• Cardinals running back Trey Benson returned to practice on Wednesday and has a chance to be activated this week.

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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have had quite the roller coaster of a season. They have had some huge wins including a road victory over the 49ers and impressive wins over the Chiefs and Chargers, but also had embarrassing moments such as their blowout loss to a shorthanded Rams team, a fourth quarter meltdown against the Texans backup quarterback, and barely squeaking by against a downtrodden Raiders team. The debut season for head coach Liam Coen has been nothing if not interesting, as we seemingly get a different Jacksonville team every week. Whenever it feels like they are breaking through, they let us down. Whenever it seems like they may be a lost cause, they do something spectacular. Consistency has to be the goal, but who knows if/when that will happen.

The Jaguars are coming off one of the aforementioned “highs” as they thoroughly dominated the Chargers in every facet of the game at home in Week 11. Jacksonville’s running game was terrific with running backs Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne combining for over 140 rushing yards and three touchdowns against a struggling Chargers run defense. Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 5th in the league in adjusted line yards and 12th in PFF run blocking grade. Jacksonville has leaned heavier on their running game in recent weeks as they were 6th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through seven weeks, but have thrown at a rate 4.3% below expectation in their last four games – a mark that is bottom-10 in the league during that stretch. This week, the Jaguars get an Arizona defense that ranks 27th in PFF run defense grade, 30th in PFF tackling grade, and 24th in rushing defense DVOA. Arizona has allowed three straight opponents to average over five yards per carry and this is a matchup where the Jaguars are likely to continue their run-heavy attack, especially if their dynamic duo of running backs is available. Tuten (ankle) and Etienne (shoulder) have been limited in practice to start the week, but both are expected to play at this point. If one of them were to miss, the other would likely operate as the feature back with rookie LeQuint Allen Jr. taking all the pass down work.

Through the air, the Jaguars have struggled with consistency, but they could be in the best shape they have been for a while this week. Jacksonville may get Brian Thomas Jr. back on the field after a two-game absence due to an ankle injury and tight end Brenton Strange could be activated from injured reserve after practicing but not suiting up in Week 11. The addition of those two along with the steady presence of Parker Washington and newly acquired veteran Jakobi Meyers would give Trevor Lawrence the most dependable set of weapons he has had all season (in large part due to the team’s reluctance to unleash Travis Hunter prior to his injury). Nonetheless, things are starting to look up for Lawrence to display some consistency. Arizona is a team with a low blitz rate and pressure rate, while the Jaguars will lean heavily on the run and short area passing. Lawrence should be able to get comfortable and not have to make too many tight window throws in this matchup, although explosive pass plays may be lacking due to the conservative nature of Arizona’s defensive scheme.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Eagles defense has been dominant recently, holding the Packers and Lions to a combined 16 points in the two games since their bye week.
• Dallas is playing on a short week after dominating the Raiders on Monday night as they returned from their Week 10 bye.
• These teams met in Week 1 on opening night in a game that Dallas led early and slowed things down for a bit, but the Eagles ultimately pulled away.
• Dallas plays zone coverage at a rate that is near the top of the league, and notably dropped into very conservative coverages against the Eagles the first time they played.
• Cowboys home games this season have resulted in cumulative point totals of 77, 80, 66, and 44 points.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

It is difficult for us to figure out exactly who the Eagles are because the Eagles still don’t really know who they are. We have seen glimpses of a team willing to change things up and be more aggressive, but they seem to continuously go back into their shell and rely on the crutch of grinding out low scoring games, which their elite defense and offensive line tend to let them get away with. The Eagles have played ten games this season and have scored 20 or fewer points in half of those contests. Meanwhile, in their other five games, they have scored 28 or more points four times, as they tend to be an all-or-nothing proposition on the scoreboard. If we look for commonalities in their higher scoring games, we can see they came against weaker defenses (NYG and DAL), aggressive defenses (TB and MIN), and a good defense that jumped out to a big first half lead and left them no choice (LAR). 

This week, the Eagles get a rematch with a Cowboys defense that has been very bad for most of this season, but has made significant personnel improvements recently with the acquisitions of All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, along with the returns of defensive back Malik Hooker and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. The Cowboys had a Week 10 bye and faced a Raiders offense in Week 11 that is fundamentally the exact opposite of the Eagles, so their strong showing there doesn’t necessarily prove much to us, but anyone who looks at this matchup with a Dallas defense that has been like Swiss cheese for most of the season as if they will be that same unit is jumping to conclusions far too quickly.

The Eagles offensive line will be without All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson, who they have had significant dips in efficiency when playing without. The Eagles had a stretch where they were throwing the ball at a high rate relative to expectation, but have fallen back from that significantly in the last month as they have the sixth lowest PROE in the NFL. This has been especially drastic over the two games since their bye against the Packers and Lions, as the Eagles ran the ball on 58% of their offensive plays despite never trailing in either game. The absence of Johnson, plus the improvements of the Dallas defense will likely leave the Eagles running the ball with less efficiency, but they will likely stick with it unless the Cowboys are able to put some points up on their defense.

Dallas plays zone coverage on nearly 80% of their defensive plays, and those coverages tend to be more conservative in nature. When these teams played in Week 1, the Cowboys did not blitz once in the first half. They picked up the pressure somewhat in the second half once they fell further behind, but their initial approach was to drop more players into coverage and force Philadelphia to pick them apart in the short areas of the field and take long drives marching the field. Jalen Hurts completed 83% of his passes and took what the Cowboys gave him. We should expect a similar approach early in this game from Dallas, which is likely to result in the Eagles working the short areas of the field with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. The team has struggled to get A.J. Brown going this season, and that has especially been the case against teams that do not blitz much or play high rates of man coverage, which he has historically torched. Brown was targeted only once, the first time these teams met, and it was on a short 8-yard out route in the 4th quarter. Other than that, the team did not have any need to force the ball in his direction. The Eagles are likely to be able to move the ball, but may have more drives stall out against Dallas than you would expect, with the Cowboys getting stronger from a personnel standpoint. Short area passing and rushes by Barkley and Hurts will be the primary methods of moving the ball, with Philadelphia’s dominance in short yardage once again being the crutch they lean on to control the game.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Atlanta will be without starting QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London for this divisional road game, leaving veteran QB Kirk Cousins in line to take command of the offense.
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson finally handled some goal line work in Week 11 and didn’t disappoint with two touchdowns.
• New Orleans is coming off their bye week and the last time we saw them play they were pulling off a road upset of the Panthers.
• Chris Olave has gone over 24 fantasy points in two of his last four games after scoring less than 16 in each of the first six weeks.
• The Saints defense has performed very well against mediocre offenses this season.

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How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons have been one of the league’s more disappointing teams this season and enter this week with a 3-7 record and seemingly everyone’s jobs teetering on the brink. Atlanta took the bold step of trading their 2026 first round pick to move up in last year’s draft and add an edge rusher. That would currently be the 8th overall pick, and the Falcons just lost starting QB Michael Penix Jr. to a knee injury that will end his season. They will also be without star wide receiver Drake London for at least this week due to a knee injury of his own. This will leave the team with a skeleton crew of wide receivers for veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who has looked uninspiring during his appearances so far this season. 

The Falcons have leaned pretty heavily on the run this season, as RB Bijan Robinson is in the midst of an outstanding season. Tyler Allgeier has also played well for the team this year, and the duo combined for all three of the team’s touchdowns last week against Carolina. The matchup this week with a Saints defense that is much better against the run than the pass is unlikely to be enough to change Atlanta’s approach after they laid a complete egg in the only other start from Cousins this season, when the Falcons barely moved the ball against Miami’s mediocre defense. Atlanta fell behind early in that game and never established a running game, as they had a season low in rush attempts despite a matchup with a Dolphins run defense that had been very poor to that point in the season. Expect the Falcons not to let that happen again and commit heavily to the run, especially without London on the field. 

When the Falcons do let Cousins pass the ball, the majority of his passes are likely to be directed at Bijan and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. In that Dolphins game, Pitts was the lone Falcons offensive player to provide any production as he caught 9 of 9 targets for 59 yards. Darnell Mooney operated as the “WR1” in that game, although that is a role he is probably not well-suited for. Mooney has been highly inefficient all season as he has failed to score a touchdown despite playing over 80% of the offensive snaps in seven games this season and being targeted 42 times. Mooney is not getting open downfield, is not creating separation in the short areas, and is not physical enough to win in contested catches. He is ranked 94th out of 94 wide receivers in the league in PFF receiving grade through Week 11. Long story short, don’t count on him. Pitts and Bijan will be the primary options in a low volume passing game, with veteran KhaDarel Hodge potentially seeing an expanded role after some strong games in 2024.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Bucs taking on the Rams in a 49.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 6.5. On the Bucs side of things, they’re getting Chris Godwin back from a lengthy absence, and they really need some support after going 1-3 in their last four games, while the Rams are humming at 8-2 and coming off of beating the 49ers and Seahawks. Los Angeles is somewhat sneakily (at least from what I’ve seen chatted about), a legit Super Bowl contender, while the Bucs seem like they’re trending down a bit after a couple of really strong seasons. Baker Mayfield is still playing very, very well overall, but their defense has slipped and is a bit below average overall this season. Should be a fun game, let’s dig into it.

LOS ANGELES

On the Rams side of things, Kyren Williams has maintained a solid-but-not-elite running back role with Blake Corum getting more run than we saw last season. Kyren is not a bad running back, but he’s not an elite talent, and his performance has generally been more a function of a very robust role and a team that scores a lot of points. Unfortunately, the role has been fading a bit. In the Rams last five games, Kyren has only gone for 18+ touches once, while Corum has averaged 10.8 touches in those games. It’s not just garbage time, either, as Kyren has continued to get fourth quarter run even in blowouts while Corum is mixing in consistently early in games. This points to a tough spot for Kyren. At $10k, he probably needs at least either the 100 yard bonus or a touchdown in order to be optimal, and he’s only reached the bonus once while scoring six rushing TDs on the year. The touchdown equity is still solid, of course, with a 28 point team total, but at $10k, I generally want my running backs to have more upside to get into the 20+ touch range. Corum is a solid RB2 play at just $3k with high odds of reaching double digit touches. He gets almost no passing game work, so he needs a touchdown, but if he can manage to vulture one from Kyren, his odds of being optimal are very strong. We still see teams pass at a ~60% rate against the Bucs, 8th highest in the league, which also somewhat dampens my interest in Kyren. They aren’t as good against the run on a per-carry basis as we’ve gotten used to seeing from them over the past few seasons, but teams are still choosing to pass at a high rate. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Rams are heavily focused around Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, with Jordan Whittington playing a half-time WR3 role and then Konata Humpfield and Xavier Smith playing very small rotational roles. The duo accounts for ~56% of Matt Stafford’s pass attempts with Puka being more of a move-the-chains guy (9.2 yard aDOT, fewer deep targets than Adams) while Adams sees fewer targets but more deep balls as well as the league’s best red zone role (24 red zone targets, highest in the league). Puka has the higher floor, but worth noting that Adams actually has more air yards on the season by a wide margin and more red and end zone targets… their ceilings are pretty comparable. Against an exploitable Tampa secondary in a matchup that tilts towards the pass, they’re both awesome plays, but I have a slight lean towards Adams at $2k cheaper and probably a bit lower ownership just due to the brand name difference. Whittington has topped out at just 3 targets in games in which Puka has played the full game, and has just 1 target in the last three games. Despite being the clear-cut WR3 by snaps and routes, he’s a very thin dart throw as this passing offense is extremely condensed.

At tight end, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, Colby Parkinson, and Terrance Ferguson are all splitting work. Parkinson is the most talented and most involved pass catcher by a fairly wide margin, and it’s worth noting he jumped up to a season-high 69% of the snaps (nice) after Tyler Higbee suffered an ankle injury. Higbee is out, and we are likely to see Parkinson in the leading TE role once again. At $2,400, he is a much stronger play than the $3k Whittington. Terrance Ferguson is the next most involved pass catching TE, and while Parkinson is clearly the better on-paper play, Ferguson has 5 catches this year, but every single one is for at least 21 yards. The floor here is zero, but on a per-target basis, Ferguson’s upside is quite high. It’ll be interesting to see how projection systems handle him (and thus how his ownership is projected), because if he comes in really low, he makes for a very compelling dart throw in tournaments. Allen is mostly a blocker who has some floor due to consistent involvement and a high catch rate but a very modest ceiling. Allen is basically the opposite of Ferguson, where every one of his catches has been for 20 yards or less, so he basically needs a touchdown to have a chance of being optimal, and even if he gets one, he still may not make it to optimal lineups given his low yardage upside. 

TAMPA BAY

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Our week comes to a close with the Panthers visiting the 49ers for a 49.5 total game with San Francisco favored by 7.5. But, never fear Showdown aficionados, for the best week of the season is upon us with Thanksgiving coming! In the meantime, let’s dissect this one: San Francisco has surpassed expectations with a 7-4 record so far despite Brandon Aiyuk not returning yet and Brock Purdy missing quite a few games. They’ve gotten there despite ranking exactly in the middle of the league in both points scored and points allowed, having benefited from a bit of a soft schedule as well as winning several really close games against good teams. They’re certainly not bad, but the defense in particular is a concern, averaging just over one sack per game on the season (yikes). Maybe Carolina will be able to score here? The Panthers, meanwhile, have stunned the league with a winning record so far despite having one of the league’s worst offenses (28th in the league at 18.8 points per game) but have shown signs of life lately since handing the run game to Rico Dowdle, and then Bryce Young is coming off of what is probably his best game to date as he shredded the Falcons for 448 and 3 through the air. It should be a fun game.

SAN FRANCISCO

On the San Francisco side, Christian McCaffrey is the engine of the offense. He’s one of the few true bell cow backs in the league, and his receiving production alone would rank him in the top 10 wide receivers in the NFL in PPR scoring, and that’s if he never took a single carry. The role is absolutely elite. The risk is that he hasn’t been all that efficient on the ground, as despite having both George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk to block for him, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The Panthers run D looked elite to start the year, but has been sprinkling leaks lately, sinking all the way down to 21st in the league at 4.4 yards per carry allowed. A few weeks ago, this would have looked like a nightmare matchup, but the Panthers have allowed strong performances to most of the backs they’ve faced lately. CMC’s an awesome play, and it just comes down to game theory and risk tolerance. He’s going to be massively owned. Do you want to just play him and differentiate elsewhere, or fade him and hope he drags ~80% of the field down with him if he fails? Either approach is valid, but he’s clearly the best play on the slate by a wide margin. RB2 Brian Robinson is seeing minimal work even in blowouts, and since he barely sees any receiving work (8 targets on the year), he almost certainly needs either a touchdown or a CMC injury in order to have a shot at finding the optimal lineup. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Brock Purdy is finally back in action and looked as good as ever last week, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and 3 scores in a blowout win. He also got Ricky Pearsall back last week, who played 75% of the snaps in his first week back (snap count? What count snap count?). He probably would have played his full normal role if the game had been competitive. That gives the 49ers Pearsall and Jauan Jennings as their primary wideouts with my nemesis Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne playing rotational roles (the 49ers also run 11 personnel at a fairly low rate; they run a lot of heavy sets with either 2 TEs or a TE + fullback to help block). Jennings and Pearsall are both solid options, and they’re obviously going to be compared to each other as they’re right next to each other in price. I don’t have an exceptionally strong lean here, but I will just note that Pearsall was off to a red-hot start early in the year before his injury. If he hadn’t gotten hurt, who knows what his stats would look like. My (weak) lean is towards Pearsall – they’re both viable, but I think Pearsall could have been in a real breakout season if he hadn’t gotten hurt, and I want to be out in front of that if he continues to smash to finish out the year. Given that most projection sources have Jennings ahead of Pearsall and he’s $600 cheaper, I expect Pearsall to come with a material ownership discount, which is part of why I want to lean his way. Robinson and Bourne are dart throws given how little they’re on the field, and I’ll give the edge to Robinson as he’s been playing a few more snaps.

At tight end, George Kittle is really the second pass catcher in this offense after CMC, but he tends to need to get there via efficiency rather than volume, with just one game over 6 targets on the season. He’s one of the best pass catchers in the NFL on a per-target basis, so he’s absolutely capable of doing it. He also has an awesome matchup against a Panthers D that has given up big performances to opposing tight ends all season long. He’s volatile, which makes me nervous given that he’s going to come with significant ownership, but his ceiling is as high as any non-CMC player on the slate. TE2 Luke Farrell is a punt option, while Jake Tonges, who filled in nicely for Kittle during his injury, has all but disappeared from the offense with single-digit snap percentages in the last three games. 

CAROLINA