XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 is upon us, and it begins with the Seahawks visiting the Cardinals for a 43.5 total game with the visitors favored by a point and a half. So far, the Seahawks have been playing really well, barely losing to the 49ers in Week 1 before putting up 75 points across Weeks 2-3 against the Steelers and Saints while only allowing 30 points. While they have faced below-average offenses thus far, the Hawks defense looks pretty solid. The Cardinals are also 2-1 with a close loss against the 49ers while beating up on the mediocre Panthers and Saints, but those wins have been much closer affairs. Their defense has held on but still given up a lot of passing production, while it’s fair to say the Arizona offense has not yet fully clicked into gear. 

ARIZONA

We’ll start with the home team. The Cards backfield just lost James Conner for the season, leaving the backfield to Trey Benson with Emari Demercado backing him up. Benson had already been playing a fair bit and has looked good doing it, so far running for 6 yards per carry and catching 8 of 11 targets on the season. The Seahawks have looked good on run defense so far, but Benson is likely to step into quite a large role. Last week, Demercado only played 7 offensive snaps after Conner was hurt. It might look a bit different with a full week to prepare, but I’d expect Benson to play at least 70% of the snaps with a correspondingly large workload, and while the matchup isn’t great, he just isn’t priced for that at $8,800. The large passing game role we’ve seen so far is especially encouraging. At his price, he’s a solid value and a play I will be overweight on. Demercado is hard to get a handle on. He will certainly have some kind of role, but it’s unclear how big of one. He’s priced at an awkward level if he only ends up playing sub-20% of the snaps, like he did last week.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Cards will almost certainly be without Zay Jones, who sustained a concussion last week and is going to have a really tough time getting through the protocol on a short week. I’m assuming he’s out, which should leave Arizona primarily using Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, with Greg Dortch seeing increased snaps and then perhaps Xavier Weaver or Semi Fohoko will see the field in a very small WR4 role. Harrison is wildly talented, but so far has a very modest 19.3% target share this season with 5-6 targets in every game. $7,800 is a weird price for him in that it’s clearly too cheap for his talent, but his role has been oddly small. There’s still plenty of time for that to change, and at this point in the season, I want to buy the talent. The Cardinals may not be the sharpest franchise in the league, but certainly they’re not stupid enough to refuse to use one of their best offensive players…right? The rest of the wide receivers are all punt options as Arizona’s offense is really built around the running back, Harrison, and tight end Trey McBride. WR2 Michael Wilson is on the field for most of the snaps but has 8 targets on the year – he’d be my next favorite option, as at $3,400 he’s priced like a guy who’s a part-time player. OWS favorite Dortch is a guy who has always succeeded when given opportunity, but has had a tough time finding consistent opportunity. He’s a little riskier than Wilson as it’s possible the Cards could just continue to refuse to play him – he should see more run without Jones, but it might not matter if Kyler Murray doesn’t throw to him, or perhaps Arizona plays more 12 personnel sets instead – there’s risk but upside in a guy who has historically been a great route runner with an elite catch rate.

At tight end, McBride is the (very) rare tight end who leads his team in target share, target rate, and share of air yards. McBride’s 27.3% target rate is the highest in the league for a tight end. He’s the real primary pass catcher in this offense. He’s priced like it all the way up at $9,800, but he can be viewed more as a WR1 than a TE, and importantly, he’s the WR1 in a pretty concentrated offense. He’s a bit of a toss-up with Benson as my favorite Cards skill position play. He’s more talented than Benson, but Benson wins out on the strength of the role. The Seahawks have also given up an awful lot of production to tight ends early: George Kittle went 4/25/1 on 4 targets in just 21 offensive snaps before getting hurt, the Steelers two primary tight ends caught 7 of 8 targets for 58 yards, and the Saints Juwan Johnson caught 6 of 8 targets for 51 yards last week. McBride looks to be in a really nice spot. TE2 Tip Reiman is primarily a blocker who can be utilized as a “hope he gets a short touchdown” punt play (he does have 4 targets in two games, so it’s not totally crazy, and then TE3 Elijah Higgins is a similar player profile, except he’ll be on the field far less than Reiman. Both are viable punt plays, with Reiman being the (slightly) better option due to more field time. 

SEATTLE

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

For anyone up early on Sunday morning, you get a bit of a treat as the Vikings and Steelers are playing the first-ever NFL game in Dublin, Ireland. This game has a 40.5 total game and Minnesota is favored by 2.5. Croke Park, where the game is being played, is an open-air stadium but the weather should be nice. Beyond that, I have no real idea how the stadium might impact scoring. 

MINNESOTA

We’ll start by looking at the Vikings, who look likely to be without J.J. McCarthy again and are still missing Aaron Jones, leaving the backfield in the hands of Jordan Mason. Last week, Mason handled 76% of the carries through the first three quarters before sitting in a blowout, taking 16 carries for 116 yards and 2 scores. He did not see a target, though Carson Wentz only attempted 20 passes. Mason should be in for a big workload in this one, and the Steelers defense is going to be missing at least one major piece with Alex Highsmith out, and they might also be missing more starters. Pittsburgh’s defense has also given up 32 points to the Jets and 31 to the Seahawks so far – it’s fair to say they haven’t looked as good as we’re used to seeing a Steelers defense be in the last few years. So far in the season, this has not looked like a negative matchup. Mason’s expensive but he’s the clear bell cow back on an offense that, at least last week, looked more capable with Wentz than McCarthy. Some combination of Zavier Scott and Cam Akers will back him up, with Scott being the favorite for more touches. RB2s are always viable in Showdown, and $2,400 is a cheap price for an RB2, so while it’s hard to say “yeah, this backup guy is such a smash play,” we can say Scott is a bit too cheap for his role and upside. 

In the passing game, the Vikings will get back Jordan Addison from suspension, and since he wasn’t injured, he should be ready to step into a full role. Last week, Wentz only threw 20 passes, and 13 of them went to Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Listeners to the Saturday Inner Circle Slate show will remember I talked about Wentz having the second-highest tight end target rate of any quarterback in the NFL over the last seven seasons. Addison gives him another good weapon, but he’s never been a target hog; he’ll largely steal from Jalen Nailor, leaving what should be primarily a 3-target tree of Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson. Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the NFL and is always a strong on-paper play whenever he’s on a Showdown slate. As with all top receivers, the issue isn’t about whether he is a good play, it’s just about whether he will find a ceiling in this particular game. The matchup isn’t a tough one as we’ve seen other WR1s smash the Steelers this year (to be fair, every team has smashed the Steelers). Addison is more of a lower volume, deeper threat boom/bust kind of profile – he’s a very talented receiver, you’re just probably going to need him to connect on a longer score in order to hit. His price at $7k is noteworthy as he’s usually been in the $8k range, so we get a bit of a discount since he hasn’t been active yet; and that’s enough to make me want to take an overweight position on him.

Hockenson is the other main pass catcher on this offense and he’s a guy I think is just way too cheap at $5,400 (he’s usually been in the $6k – $7k range), and Wentz’s tendency to target his tight ends at a huge rate boosts his target expectations. I’d be shocked if Hock saw fewer than 5 targets in this one, and he has a ceiling for many more. He’s my favorite overall Viking when price is considered. WR3 Jalen Nailor will be on the field a lot, and he’s seen 13 targets through three games so far, but Addison’s return likely impacts him the most of any Vikings pass catcher. His volume is likely to go away, leaving him more of a punt play than a real value option. Adam Thielen is also very likely to see his snaps impacted, as he was brought back to help fill in while Addison was out, but Thielen can still fill a slot role in 3-wide sets in which Minnesota wants to have Jefferson and Addison on the perimeter. Thielen should still see the field at least some of the time and will be in competition with Nailor for snaps. I wouldn’t play them together, and Nailor has more per-target upside than the 35-year-old Thielen at this point in his career. TE2 Josh Oliver plays enough snaps and is a solid enough pass catcher while on the field to also be thrown into the punt play pool, and Wentz’s tendency to target the tight end makes him a bit stronger than usual, as while he won’t be on the field a ton, he’s more likely to garner a target or two when he’s in.

pittsburgh

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>

• Jayden Daniels’ (knee) status for Week 4 remains uncertain, but it appears to me that he is tracking to play. We’ll write up the remainder of this exploration as if he is in and we’ll update it on Friday (or Saturday) if he is eventually ruled out.
• WR Noah Brown (groin, knee) has yet to practice (as of Thursday) after missing the team’s Week 3 win over the Raiders.
• WR Terry McLaurin (quad) has not practiced through Thursday and appears primed to miss Week 4.
• CB A.J. Terrell was ‘DNP’ on Wednesday and Thursday and would be a sizable loss to the Atlanta defense.
• I expect the Commanders to continue to deploy a messy three-way timeshare in the backfield.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

How Washington will try to win likely depends greatly on their quarterback situation. Last week with Marcus Mariota under center, we saw the offense slow down (31.2 seconds per play after being the second-fastest team in the league with Daniels under center), which honestly could have also been influenced by extremely positive game script as well. The offense was more conservative, intentionally, last week, with Mariota carrying a 7.4-yard aDOT with a 4.8% deep-throw rate and just 21 pass attempts, versus an 8.3-yard aDOT, 12.5% deep-throw rate, and 72 pass attempts through two games for Daniels. Another aspect likely to define their game plan here is the status of McLaurin, who has yet to practice this week. Brown is already trending to be out for the second consecutive contest, meaning the team could be forced to deploy Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore, and Luke McCaffrey on the perimeter with two missing perimeter receivers. And then there’s the state of the backfield, which was a messy three-headed monster in Week 3 in the absence of Austin Ekeler. In all, this team has a lot of moving pieces to work through this week. Luckily for them, they draw a matchup with a Falcons team working through their own demons after being the first team to let go of a coach on their staff this week.

The Falcons have allowed 4.0 yards per carry behind only 1.40 yards allowed before contact, but volume could be on the side of the Washington ground game if the Falcons can’t move the football like they showed against the Panthers in Week 3. Jacory Croskey-Merritt played the most snaps in Week 3 (40%) but managed just 26 yards and a touchdown on eight carries to the 11-39-0 line of Chris Rodriguez and the 4-78-1 line of Jeremy McNichols. The breakdown in opportunities also wasn’t overly influenced by the game environment, as all three backs saw work in the first half. I would expect this messy situation to carry forward with all three backs seeing work.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Atlanta’s base defense runs from Cover-3 (41.5%, fifth highest in the league). They also deploy an above-average rate of Cover-1 (24.5%, mostly via Terrell shadows), leading to the second-highest rate of single-high in the league this season. The biggest problem isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential absences of both McLaurin and Brown. That could leave Moore on the perimeter in a near every-down rate after the veteran journeyman has played on the outside at a 94.4% clip (versus 66.7% for McCaffrey and 69.9% for Lane). The secondary effects of the missing personnel could lessen the downfield aggression from Daniels, assuming he starts, turning the team into a “march the field and sustain drives” mindset. That plays most into the potential volume for Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz, the two of whom I would expect to be the focal points of the offense through the air, again, assuming Daniels is in and McLaurin and Brown are out. McLaurin would be in a fantastic spot against a single-high-heavy defense potentially without Terrell if he manages to suit up.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• I’m writing this game up on Tuesday because neither team has experienced any major injuries through three weeks – make sure to check back Friday for any personnel-driven updates.
• James Cook is always a threat to go over 100 yards and score multiple touchdowns in this offense, regardless of his low likelihood of seeing more than 22-24 opportunities. That makes him appear to be overpriced relative to his workload, and tougher to click when building rosters.
• Josh Allen now has 10 games finishing in the top two in raw points at the position since the start of the 2023 season – a Bills skill-position player has finished in the top three at their respective position in those games only three times (Stefon Diggs in 2023, James Cook in 2024, and Keon Coleman in 2025).
• Those 10 occurences came in a 48-20 win over the Dolphins in Week 4 2023, a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in Week 5 2023, a 24-18 win over the Buccaneers in Week 8 2023, a 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles in Week 12 2023, a 27-20 win over the Patriots in Week 16 2023, a 34-28 win over the Cardinals in Week 1 2024, a 47-10 win over the Jaguars in Week 3 2024, a 44-42 loss to the Rams in Week 14 2024, a 48-42 win over the Lions in Week 15 2025, and their 41-40 win in Week 1 2025.
• The Bills lead the league with 420.0 total yards of offense per game and have scored 30 or more points in three straight, while the Saints have managed just 15.7 points per game (29^th) and 302.0 yards of total offense per game (tied for 19^th).
• The Bills and Saints are tied atop the league in plays per game (68.7) with the Cowboys.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Saints are in complete “treading water” mode and it’s only Week 4. This team is not as bad as everyone seems to think considering the veteran talent they have on defense, the talent in their skill-position corps, and elite coaching up and down the roster, but they will remain a bottom feeder for as long as their quarterback situation remains one of the worst in the league. It’s simply too hard to win in the league today without a solid option under center, and the Saints are proving that beyond a reasonable doubt in 2025. They should continue to play teams in the bottom half of the league tight (Cardinals in Week 1 and 49ers without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk in Week 2) but should continue getting romped by top-half teams (Seahawks in Week 3). That places their expectations fairly low against a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Bills here. I expect the Saints to be reactive by nature in this spot after a run-balanced start, evidenced by their 26^th-ranked -2.0% pass rate over expectation (PROE) through three games. Their blazing pace of play took a slight hit in their blowout loss to the Seahawks (24.5 seconds per play in their first two games and 27.7 seconds per play in that Week 3 loss), but it still would rank first in the league over the full season. This offense is going to play fast, and there are going to be a lot of plays run from scrimmage here.

Veteran Alvin Kamara has been in a “tick below workhorse” role through three games, in his age-30 season, in his ninth year in the league. And while I don’t expect that to be sustainable for the entirety of the 2025 season, this dude is currently handling volume with the best of them. The biggest change for Kamara this season is a sudden drop in pass-game involvement after seeing only 10 targets through three games. He saw three or fewer targets (less than his average this season) only four times the previous two seasons combined. He’s actually been in a route at the highest rate over the previous three season (59.0%), telling me that this isn’t a structure problem or a scheme problem, it simply seems to be a Spencer Rattler problem. And since Rattler is in line to continue to start for the Saints, I think it is unlikely we magically see Kamara’s targets spike. That leaves him as a back that needs to hit 100/2 on the ground to return GPP viability, something that appears unlikely here despite the Bills allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per carry this season. Kendre Miller is on hand for strict change-of-pace duties and does not merit fantasy consideration.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Chris Olave leads the league in targets (tied with Puka Nacua with 35) and expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) (21.6) but just 30^th in fantasy points per game (FP/G) (13.2). That delta in XFP/G and FP/G stands as the highest in the league through three weeks. There are two ways to look at that: (1) Olave is due for significant progression (positive regression), or (2) Spencer Rattler is incapable of supporting an elite option through the air. I think it’s too early to call it definitively either way, but early returns seem to hint the conclusion will eventually become the latter. The biggest early-season surprise from the Saints has to be tight end Juwan Johnson, who has been in a route at the fifth highest rate in the league (76.9%) and ranks second in targets (28, behind only Jake Ferguson), amongst tight ends. His 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR) also ranks second. He appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Rattler being under center, a quarterback that struggles with getting through progressions and reading opposing defenses. The pass offense is really a four-man entity, with all of Olave, Johnson, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks in a route on more than 73% of the dropbacks (next closest is Devaughn Vele at a modest 13.5%). This offense could return top-tier fantasy outcomes if Rattler can improve upon his 5.37 yards per attempt (YPA) and lowly 3.36% touchdown rate. This doesn’t appear to be the spot for that to happen, but we should keep it in mind moving forward.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Quinshon Judkins ranks 17th in XFP/G behind 0.25 missed tackles forced per attempt, a 7.1% explosive run rate, and 3.43 yards after contact per attempt.
• TE David Njoku (knee) and WR Cedric Tillman (hand, hip) were each limited on Wednesday.
• The Lions only held a walkthrough Wednesday after playing on Monday in Week 3. That said, there were no surprises on their first injury report of the week.
• No Cleveland pass-catcher has seen more than 16.3% of the team’s targets through three weeks. No wide receiver has a TPRR greater than 0.18 (Jeudy).
• The Browns have really been that good on defense this year. They have played 10 quarters of elite football on that side of the ball, something that mutes the game environment here.
• The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is combining to account for 34 opportunities per game through three weeks.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns have entirely bought into a mindset built around their defense, something that has kept them competitive in every game this season (remember, they were down 10-3 at the half against the Ravens in Week 2 before giving up four second-half touchdowns, lost to the Bengals on a missed field goal, and beat the Packers in spectacular fashion). Their offense is nothing special, based almost entirely out of shotgun with little misdirection. They also prefer to be run-balanced, which could begin to come into play in the next few weeks, considering the obvious intent to have rookie running back Quinshon Judkins operate in a clear lead role (less likely this week against the stout Detroit defensive front). What we’re left with is a clear emphasis on making life as difficult as possible on the defensive side of the ball, with an offense aiming to lean run-balanced and minimize mistakes, so as to not lose the game. This is far less exciting than we’ve seen in the past, at least from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a modest 5.01 yards per attempt, two touchdowns to four interceptions, a low 5.7 aDOT, and a low 6.3% deep throw rate through three weeks.

Judkins missed the entirety of camp and preseason while dealing with legal issues, signed his rookie contract the day before their season opener, and still led the backfield in Week 3. It is clear the team wants him as their lead rusher. The increase in snaps came at the direct expense of fellow rookie Dylan Sampson in Week 3, who saw his snap rate fall from 43% to just 8% in the span of three games. That leaves Jerome Ford as the preferred change-of-pace option after playing 36% of the team’s offensive snaps in their win over the Packers. And for intents and purposes, Judkins looks every bit of the back of the future for the Browns. He has a solid 7.1% explosive run rate, has seen every opportunity inside the five in games he has been active, had a gaudy 0.25 missed tackles forced per attempt (seven on 28 carries), and a solid 3.43 yards after contact per attempt. His 14.2 XFP/G ranks 17th in the league, and that’s with a game where he was eased in in Week 2. The matchup is dreadful from a schematic standpoint, although the Lions have allowed 4.2 yards per carry behind 2.33 yards allowed before contact per attempt through three weeks.

No Cleveland pass-catcher has seen more than 16.3% of the team’s targets through three weeks, while no wide receiver has a TPRR greater than 0.18 (Jeudy). Sampson (0.44), Harold Fannin (0.24), Quinshon Judkins (0.19), and Jerome Ford (0.18) lead the team in TPRR in what has devolved into a short area passing offense aimed at marching the field while minimizing mistakes. It’s simply hard to carry any meaningful fantasy upside in that setup, particularly for Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku. So, while the Lions could theoretically pry increased aerial aggression from the Browns, that aggression is equal parts difficult to narrow to specific pass-catchers, as it is less likely considering how good the Cleveland defense has looked through three weeks. We’re thus best to leave these pass-catchers alone for the time being in DFS.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, WR Tetairoa McMillan, OLB Patrick Jones, DT Tershawn Wharton, and OLB D.J. Wonnum all missed practice early in the week.
• The Patriots are relatively healthy, with only G Jared Wilson and LB K’Lavon Chaisson missing practice on Wednesday.
• The Panthers defense played their best game in two years last week.
• After being historically bad against the run last year, the Panthers look only regularly bad against the run this season.
• Tet McMillan missed practice on Wednesday, which will be a key injury to monitor this week.
• The Panthers O-line lost two starters before Week 3. Then they played their best game of the season
• The Patriots have been a pass funnel, and the Panthers have shown a willingness to elevate their pass rate.
• TreVeyon Henderson played 85% of the snaps after the Patriots lead backs fumbled multiple times.
• Drake Maye is good at football, but his receiving weapons leave a lot to be desired.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The 1-2 Panthers weren’t who we thought they were. After looking like fools for the first two weeks and losing multiple starters on their O-line, the Panthers were priced as nearly a touchdown underdog at home. Naturally, they delivered a 30-0 beatdown versus a Falcons team that just looked impressive against the Vikings. What changed? Game script. The Panthers ranked 3rd in pass rate coming into the game, but their situational neutral numbers indicated they didn’t want to be a pass-first team. In a game where their defense dominated, Bryce Young threw the ball only 24 times. It’s hard to point to anything special the Panthers did differently in Week 3. Young only passed for 121 yards, Chuba Hubbard led the way on the ground with just 73 rushing yards, and Tetairoa McMillan was the leading receiver with a meager 48 yards. It’s hard to take anything away from a game where the Panthers had to do almost nothing on offense to win. The only real takeaway is that in games they control, we aren’t going to see the pass-happy Panthers we saw in the first two weeks of the season. The same correlation held true for their pace of play. They were 5th in seconds per play entering Week 3, but bottom 10 in situational neutral pace. With last week’s game on the stat sheet, they fell all the way to 16th in seconds per play. The Panthers want to play slowly, but are willing to speed up when losing, which is a trend that is likely to be sticky this season.

The Patriots have been tough against the run (12th in DVOA) and killed through the air (29th in DVOA). While bad, the DVOA rank doesn’t even tell the whole story. The bottom five (DAL/MIA/NYJ/NE/NO) in DVOA are significantly worse than the rest of the league. The Patriots profile as an early-season pass funnel. The Panthers have thrown a lot (8th in pass rate), but that’s because of game script. They want to be balanced (13th in PROE), which creates an interesting question of how they will play against a pass funnel defense. The Panthers have a weak (21st-ranked by PFF) O-line. They moved down one spot in the rankings, but PFF notes that despite losing two starters, their line performed excellently in Week 3. They surrendered only five pressures, and Cade Mays (backup center) had the 6th-best protection numbers among all centers. There is a chance the Panthers backups are better than expected. It’s likely that Dave Canales will lean into the pass more than usual, but he probably won’t totally abandon the run unless the Patriots take a lead. Expect the Panthers to come out balanced, but to find success passing, which is likely to lead to more passing.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is set to take over under center for the Giants. Dart had a highly productive preseason, completing 32-of-47 passes for 372 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 52 yards and a score on six carries. Dart brings a strong arm, is willing to be aggressive downfield, has solid processing, and brings some dual-threat elements to the table.
• RB Omarion Hampton has less competition for backfield opportunities after Najee Harris tore his Achilles in Week 3.
• WR Malik Nabers did not practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. This is a big deal, not only for his potential availability this weekend, but for the lost practice reps with a new quarterback. TE Theo Johnson also missed practice on Wednesday with a toe injury.
• The Chargers rank first in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while the Giants have faced the sixth highest PROE on the defensive side of the ball.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

This offense has been entirely focused on winning games through the arm (and legs, I suppose) of quarterback Justin Herbert. And why not, the dude is a top five pocket passer with plus mobility. Completely unlike the current state of the Giants offensive structure (more on this below), I’m also quite fond of the structure and scheme of Greg Roman’s offense. The route layering and situational play calling have been nothing short of elite on tape. He is optimizing the playmakers he has, creating space and stressing opposing defenses on multiple levels. The Chargers have been a fun watch through three weeks, and I hope they continue leaning into the aggression we’ve seen thus far. On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has leaned into zone (fifth-ranked 80.3% zone frequency) while blitzing at a low 14.2% frequency, effectively forcing their opposition to string together drives and march the field to put up points. They have allowed only two passing touchdowns through three games, one each to the Chiefs and Broncos.

Yes, Omarion Hampton has less competition for opportunities following the torn Achilles suffered by Najee Harris, but this is already a back that saw 80% of his team’s offensive snaps in Week 1, playing for the offense first in PROE through three weeks. In other words, there is only so much “bump to projections” he can take on in Week 4. The Chargers have generated just 1.11 yards before contact per attempt, while Hampton has gone three games without averaging more than 3.7 yards per carry. I get the Best Ball and season-long hype here, but I am struggling to see a viable path to ceiling against a Giants defense facing one of the highest PROE values against this season, considering the current state of this offense. Journeyman backup Hassan Haskins should step into the change-of-pace role behind Hampton.

Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are the near every-down pass-catchers in this offense, each in a route at an elite rate. In the absence of tight end Will Dissly in Week 3, rookie Oronde Gadsden saw seven targets but ran only 15 routes (one more than Tyler Conklin), while Keenan Allen continued to operate in plus rotational role. Allen’s 49.0% slot rate highlights the dynamism of the offense, which moves its primary pieces around the formation to generate plus matchups. It’s also a highly concentrated offense on the surface, with McConkey, Johnston, and Allen all seeing more than 19% of the targets and 0.18 TPRR. No other pass-catcher has seen more than seven targets, which were the seven from Gadsden last week. The Giants have faced the sixth highest PROE against this season, clearly a move to attack something other than their elite defensive line. I see more of the same here, as those tendencies align with how the Chargers have been looking to win games.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• The Eagles have been “winning dirty” through three weeks, escaping a close one against the Cowboys in Week 1, narrowly beating the Chiefs in Week 2, and walking the game off via a blocked field goal as time expired in Week 3 against the Rams.
• The structure of the Philadelphia offense is as bad as I’ve seen it in the Jalen Hurts era. Routes take too long to develop, route layering is off, players too often find themselves in the same areas of the field (which drags multiple defenders), and the structure doesn’t promote getting players in space.
• Saquon Barkley is averaging 3.34 yards per carry while running from shotgun at a 72.4% frequency. Just another data point for the static nature of the offense.
• WR Mike Evans was a ‘DNP’ Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Another season, another hamstring issue for Evans.
• WR Chris Godwin upgraded to a full participant Wednesday, his first such practice of the season. He appears to be nearing a return, potentially for Week 4.
• The Buccaneers are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of two points – they have won three games with a combined margin of victory of six total points.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW philadelphia WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Eagles keep finding ways to win. That said, it has not been pretty to start the season. Their offense has been static, their run game has not been kickstarted, and their bend-but-don’t-break defense has more cracks in it than we’ve seen in previous seasons. This team could just as easily be 0-3 than 3-0, but the general feeling is that the defending Super Bowl champions are a 3-0, dominant team still. That has not yet been the case to start the season. The strengths of this team is its front seven on defense and its offensive line, and the Eagles are now more than comfortable winning through those two avenues. They really had no business beating the Rams but managed to hold Los Angeles to six field-goal attempts, blocking the final two.

Hurts saw his first designed run in the team’s Week 3 win over the Rams, which came on fourth-and-2 on their first possession. That kind of highlights the changing dynamics of this offense behind a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Patullo. The early results have been less than promising on film, with very little pre-snap motion and little in the way of misdirection and dynamic route layering. Hurts continues to be a menace in short-yardage situations, scoring four times on the ground via the Tush Push already this season. Barkley is currently averaging just 3.34 yards per carry with a 1.7% explosive-run rate and only 50% of the team’s carries inside the five (thank you, Tush Push). That also comes with a 51.7% stuff rate and only three missed tackles forced on 58 carries. Again, Patullo is doing this man no favors, and teams are not even stacking boxes at an elevated rate against the Eagles through three weeks (6.4 average defenders in the box). One of the biggest issues is the high shotgun carry rate utilized by the Eagles (72.4%), adding to the static nature of the offense. The matchup on the ground is not ideal against a Buccaneers team holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry behind 1.43 yards allowed before contact per attempt. Finally, the Eagles are blocking to just 1.79 yards before contact per attempt. 

A lot of what I’m seeing that is currently wrong with this offense has to do with the structure itself more than anything wrong with the players. Routes take too long to develop, route layering is off, players too often find themselves in the same areas of the field (which drags multiple defenders), and the structure doesn’t promote getting players in space. Even little things like screens to Barkley aren’t hitting home. The few I saw from last week had three wide receivers effectively running go routes against zone coverage, with all defenders keyed in on the football. They had no chance to be effective. A.J. Brown looked absolutely dominant against the Rams, routinely showcasing his elite physicality and body control. The structure of the offense is doing him no favors, but he continually won against tight man coverage. Dallas Goedert is a more complementary piece to the offense in its current form while DeVonta Smith ranks near Brown in most meaningful metrics. The Buccaneers present an interesting matchup as they’ve continued to run above average rates of single-high (52.4%), something that could give Brown more one-on-one coverages similar to what he saw against the Rams last week. It isn’t a particularly great matchup on paper considering the structure of the offense, but Brown is a player that can beat man at a high level.

HOW tampa bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY PAPY324>>

• Brian Callahan might not make it past the Titans bye week if things don’t improve.
• Cam Ward has looked out of sync with Calvin Ridley. 
• Tony Pollard is getting nearly all the backfield work, but his usage hasn’t led to fantasy production.
• The Titans’ defense hasn’t been able to stop anything, but they’ve been especially bad against the run. 
• The Texans are 0-3, but they lost three close games that could’ve gone their way, with their defense allowing the fifth-fewest points in the league.
• The Texans’ O-line has held the bottom ranking from PFF since Week 1 with no hope of improving in sight. 
• Woody Marks played almost half the snaps last week and looks like the Texans’ most explosive RB. 
• Nico Collins always has slate-breaking upside, but the Texans’ passing game has looked dysfunctional most of the time this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 0-3 Titans come into Week 4 as one of the most disappointing teams of the year. Callahan was supposed to be an offensive whiz when the Titans hired him out of Cincinnati. Instead, he looks like yet another coach who was nothing more than a product of having a good QB. Callahan’s seat is blazing hot and there is a good chance he won’t finish the year as the Titans coach. The Titans are 10^th in pass rate, but that’s misleading because they’re always losing. They’re 25^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), which shows that they’d rather not pass if given the choice.  Despite being 0-3, and losing two of those games by multiple scores, Ward only has pass-attempt totals of 28 // 33 // 38 through three games.

It’s hard to blame Callahan for being conservative when his offense has been dysfunctional. Ridley has looked out of sync with Ward, turning 21 targets into a pathetic eight catches for 111 scoreless yards. Elic Ayomanor looked better than Ridley, but he has only 107 yards, with the main difference being his two scores. Pollard is playing nearly every snap, but like the rest of the offense, he has been ineffective. The Titans have been playing quickly (14^th in seconds per play), but that’s misleading because they’re always in negative game scripts. Their situational-neutral pace numbers suggest a team that wants to play at a slower pace. The Titans don’t seem to trust Ward, but Callahan might as well take the training wheels off and hope he can save his job. 

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The Texans have been vulnerable against the run (25^th in DVOA) and tougher against the pass (17^th in DVOA). The Texans’ defense is tied for third in points allowed, but they’ve given up the 16^th-most yards per game. The Texans have played bend but don’t break against the dangerous offenses of the Rams, Bucs, and Jags. The Titans don’t stack up with those offenses based on personnel or scheme and there isn’t an obvious way they can win against a good Texans defense playing at home. It doesn’t help that their O-line has been poor (25^th ranked by PFF). The left side of their line is strong behind solid play from LT Dan Moore and LG Peter Skoronski. The right side is a disaster. The Titans rotated two players at RT (if you have two RTs, you have no RTs) and both players earned PFF grades below 60.  Expect Callahan to try and hide his QB for as long as things stay close, with some willingness to take the kids gloves off Ward if things start to get out of hand. 

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Colts QB Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career and RB Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing through three weeks.
• Indianapolis rookie tight end Tyler Warren leads the team in targets but has yet to have a breakout performance.
• The Colts have shown a much improved defense this season, but this should be their toughest test to date.
• The status of star Rams wide receiver Davante Adams should be closely monitored heading into Sunday after he missed the first two practices of the week.
• Second year running back Blake Corum has begun to take a larger share of the backfield workload in recent weeks and done well with his opportunities.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts are rolling to start the season and head coach Shane Steichen has been vindicated after catching a lot of heat in the preseason for choosing Daniel Jones as his starting quarterback over former high draft pick Anthony Richardson. The Indianapolis offense is led by Jones playing at the highest level of his career, and Jonathan Taylor is also showing that he is squarely in his prime and a top-5 running back talent in the league. The Indianapolis offensive line is performing well this season as the improved offensive dynamic puts less stress on them and the Colts quietly have one of the deeper wide receiver rooms in the league, along with an ascending young tight end in Tyler Warren. Any thoughts of the Colts being a fluke after Week 1 because they had played the Dolphins should have been put to rest after they dropped 29 on the Broncos highly respected defense and went into Tennessee and casually hung 41 points on them. Only Detroit and Baltimore have scored as many points as Indianapolis through three weeks, while the Colts average a whopping 6.6 yards per play to lead the league. Make no mistake, they are for real. 

This week, they face another worthy opponent in the Rams, whose defense was above average in 2024 and appears solid once again this season. However, looking deeper at the schedule, the first two weeks they played the struggling offenses of the Texans and Titans. This was followed by Week 3, when they were easily handling the Eagles in the first half as Philly played their usual conservative and vanilla style of offense. However, when the Eagles opened things up and were aggressive in the second half, they were able to light them up as their offense had 20 second half points. Philadelphia had 260 yards of total offense in the second half of Week 3 after only 28 yards in the first half. This is notable because the Rams had been giving up less than 260 yards per *game* to opposing offenses prior to that second half meltdown. Steichen was formerly the Eagles offensive coordinator and is likely very familiar with the tendencies of his former boss, Philly head coach Nick Sirianni. He should be able to look at the film from last week and pull some things that he can exploit. 

As for how the Colts will look to attack the Rams, they have the 9th lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league and are playing at the 5th slowest raw pace of play (seconds per snap). Their offensive efficiency has driven their elite scoring and per play production to date, despite the aforementioned pace and play-calling statistics. The Eagles second half offensive success, however, was primarily driven by their moving to no huddle, up tempo play calling. It will be interesting to see if/when the Colts dive into that approach, as they likely will need to at some point. Either way, the Colts offense is going to be primarily driven by Taylor in a workhorse role, with him likely to see 23 to 28 touches unless things go really haywire. Through the air, the Colts like to spread things around and have not had high pass volume yet this season. Their primary targets are WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Tyler Warren. The Colts are also expected to be without WR Alec Pierce in this game, which should open the door for a big role for second year WR Adonai Mitchell, who drew praise all offseason.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Jacksonville’s offense continues to struggle to acclimate to new head coach Liam Coen’s offense.
• San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to return from his two game absence, while wide receiver Jauan Jennings is in danger of missing another game.
• The 49ers defense will be tested in their first game without all-pro defensive end Nick Bosa, who tore his ACL in last week’s win over the Cardinals.
• The Jacksonville pass defense has been terrific this season, ranking near the top of the league in several key metrics.
• Jaguars star second year wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has had massive struggles, with questions around his effort and drop issues causing him to be among the more disappointing skill players in the league thus far.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars seemingly have all the parts to have a very good offense, with three top-10 NFL Draft picks in their passing game and a highly respected offensive minded head coach. The Jaguars’ motion rate in 2025 has significantly increased under new head coach Liam Coen. While their exact motion rate fluctuates from week to week, early data shows a major philosophical shift from the previous season. However, this young team has been struggling to adjust to these conceptual changes after running a relatively static offense in 2024 under former head coach Doug Pederson. At first glance, the Jaguars offense looks solid in many statistical categories, including ranking 13th in yards per play, but their very soft opening two weeks in terms of opponents (Carolina and Cincinnati) is helping to mask underlying issues.

The major issues for this team relative to expectations entering the season are in their passing game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a former number one overall pick who was expected to take a step forward under the new coaching staff. Lawrence has struggled with accuracy and controlling the line of scrimmage to the level needed in a more complex system. Star wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who was the league’s top wide receiver over the last month of 2024 with Mac Jones as his quarterback, has had issues with drops, effort, and catch rate. Through three games, Thomas has only seven receptions, while there have also been seven passes that you could fairly classify as drops where he could have made a play, but did not. There have also been several instances on film where his effort has been in major question as he appears to cut routes off short and/or he simply doesn’t try to make a play on a ball or shies away from contact. It is one thing for your star player to not perform quite at their usual elite level, but another thing entirely for that player to be downright bad. Thomas has qualified as the latter. It was revealed a couple of weeks ago that Thomas is playing with a wrist injury and we aren’t quite sure when he sustained it, which would be one potential explanation. The accuracy issues for Lawrence also haven’t helped, and frankly, some of those passes it is hard to blame Thomas for not running into harm’s way when Lawrence leaves him high and dry. Regardless of why, these are things that must be cleaned up for Jacksonville’s offense to get going.

The rest of Jacksonville’s personnel will be interesting for this week. Dynamic rookie Travis Hunter Jr.’s role has been hard to understand, as his offensive snap rate and role has declined each week so far, and his defensive performance has been underwhelming. The idea of getting a player who is elite on both sides of the ball has had the early returns of “trying to do too much and doing none of it well”. The Jaguars backfield is used heavily with Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten playing well through three weeks. Both have been running the ball well and look the part, while each had a receiving touchdown in Week 2, and we know Coen likes to utilize his RBs in that way. Finally, the bright spots in the passing game have mostly come from wide receivers Dyami Brown and Parker Washington, as well as tight end Brenton Strange. Strange has led Jacksonville in receiving in two out of three weeks so far, while Washington has led in the other. Washington was also targeted 11 times in Week 3 while playing 71% of the snaps, with Brown leaving with a shoulder injury. 

Jacksonville ranks fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and Lawrence has a league average average intended air yards per pass attempt. They have been playing at a fast tempo and keeping things moving, so overall, the structure of this offense and talent should give them reason for optimism. However, penalties have held them back as they are fourth in the NFL in penalty yards through three weeks. They may be able to clean some things up this week against a 49ers defense that just lost one of their best players (Nick Bosa) and ranks 28th in the NFL in blitz rate. That low blitz rate should force/allow Lawrence to involve his running backs in the passing game at a high rate, as he did against the Bengals low blitz rate in Week 2. The 49ers have a good secondary and play a conservative style of defense with shell coverages and a low blitz rate. This is likely to keep the Jaguars playing a similar style to what we have seen so far, with a quick pace in terms of snaps, but a “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach focused on spreading the ball around in the short areas of the field. Lawrence should have time to throw, but this seems like a tough spot to expect many of the issues him and Thomas have had to go away.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Ravens try to bounce back from their second primetime meltdown in three weeks by traveling to face a Chiefs team that has had their number in recent seasons.
• Ravens running back Derrick Henry has three fumbles on 43 touches this season after fumbling only three times on 386 touches in 2024.
• Tight end Mark Andrews broke out of his slump on Monday night with a massive two touchdown game after having only two receptions entering the game.
• Kansas City looks like they will get wide receiver Xavier Worthy back from injury this week, although how effective he will be and how many snaps he can handle are yet to be determined.
• The Ravens have struggled in run defense in 2025, but the Chiefs may be the team least equipped in the NFL to take advantage.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs have ranked top-5 in the NFL in blitz rate in each of the last three seasons and are once again 5th in that metric through three weeks this year. After struggling against the blitz early in his career, Lamar Jackson has become elite in his performance when facing extra pressure. He has shown dramatic improvement in efficiency, completion percentage, and success rate against blitzing defenses, particularly last year. He now consistently beats blitzes with his arm, finding open receivers and taking what the defense gives him, rather than relying solely on his legs to escape pressure. His ability to diagnose and attack blitzes has made him a more complete and dominant quarterback. Lamar ran for 122 yards the last time these teams met, in the season opener of the 2024 season.

When Lamar does throw the ball, his primary targets are likely to be wide receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, along with tight end Mark Andrews, who had a bounce-back game in Week 3 against the Lions. Detroit’s defense keyed on Flowers, limiting him to only three targets, which allowed Andrews and Rashod Bateman to get things going. Each of Andrews and Bateman was targeted seven times on Monday night and combined for three touchdowns. The Ravens involve several other players, but those three are going to be the focal points of the passing game on a weekly basis, and it will be their opponent’s personnel and coverages that will dictate who the majority of that usage flows through.

Kansas City’s run defense is still good, but it is not what it once was. Their schedule so far has included the Chargers, who lead the league in pass rate over expectation, and the Giants, whose offense was a complete mess under Russell Wilson. In the middle, they faced an Eagles team that handicapped themselves with conservative and vanilla play calling. This is to say that the raw numbers indicate their run defense is still very good, but the underlying context suggests they could be ripe for the taking. This is relevant for the Ravens as they look to get Derrick Henry going. So far this season, the Ravens have faced the Browns and Lions, who are first and fourth, respectively, in run defense DVOA, and the Bills, who rank 29th in that same metric. Henry destroyed the Bills while being shut down almost entirely by the elite units he has faced. On Monday night against the Lions, Henry had 36 yards and a touchdown on three carries on the game’s opening drive and then had nine carries for 14 yards over the rest of the game. This should be a bounce back spot for Henry, although Kansas City is still likely strong enough to keep it from being a blow-up game. 

The Ravens are ninth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), throwing at basically the exact rate we would expect for their game scripts. This has been a change from last year, when they ranked 29th in the same metric. As they enter this game at 1-2 and finally get the relief of not facing an elite run defense, we should expect a renewed emphasis on the running game and a higher run rate. Jackson’s success running in this matchup last year will also likely not be forgotten by either team, with Baltimore likely to scheme up ways for him to use his legs and Kansas City to be focused on bottling him up. Jackson has 13 carries in the two Ravens losses this year, and only two rushes in their victory over Cleveland. Heading on the road to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead, I would not be surprised to see Lamar reach double digit carries for the first time this season. Henry and Jackson will be the focal point of Baltimore’s game plan, with Lamar ready to make the Chiefs pay through the air if they stack the box and/or get too aggressive with their blitzes.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> mike johnson

• The Bears offense has had wildly different situations so far this season, with the elite Vikings and Lions defenses giving them fits and the woeful Cowboys letting them have their way.
• Chicago’s skill position usage and snap counts could look different if rookie first round pick, tight end Colston Loveland, is unable to suit up.
• The Raiders offense will struggle to be balanced as long as their offensive line continues to perform at a very low level.
• The emergence of wide receiver Tre Tucker and injury to tight end Michael Mayer should significantly condense the Raiders offense.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

We can only hope Bears QB Caleb Williams recognizes how lucky he is, as his performance so far in 2025 has left a lot to be desired but the scheme and play calling of head coach Ben Johnson has done wonders to make Williams look good. The Bears opened Week 1 against the Vikings with an incredible drive on scripted plays and looked like they might set the league on fire this year. They also scored quickly and efficiently on their first drive in Week 2. Outside of those two scripted drives, Chicago scored on four out of 22 possessions in their first two games. The Bears looked terrific in Week 3 against the Cowboys defense, but Dallas may legitimately have the worst defense in the league so it is hard to take much away from that. Even in that situation, most of the Bears offensive success was derived from the elite play design and play calling of the coaching staff.

The Bears offensive line had some upgrades this offseason, but they are still a work in progress and rank 22nd in adjusted line yards through three weeks. Chicago runs the ball at a surprisingly high rate, also ranking 22nd in pass rate over expectation. Considering their relative ineffectiveness as a rushing offense and the nature of their personnel, it would make sense for the team to throw at a higher rate. Chicago has shown a commitment to Ben Johnson’s roots as a run-focused team who can open things up when they need to and has multiple paths to creating chunk plays. D’Andre Swift is more of a space back and has never really shown the ability to be a “between the tackles” grinder, for what it is worth. The Raiders defense has been below average so far this season in all aspects, but it will be interesting how the Bears handle their first middling opponent of the season. We know they weren’t ready for the top tier units of Minnesota and Detroit, while the offensive domination of Dallas should be taken with a grain of salt. This week will help us gauge exactly where they are as a unit.

It will be interesting to see the Bears personnel usage this week as their two prized rookies are headed in starkly different directions. Tight end Colston Loveland seems likely to miss this game after two missed practices, while wide receiver Luther Burden III had a breakout game by going over 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career on only 17 snaps and three targets. Loveland’s absence will leave veteran TE Cole Kmet in an every down role, while Burden’s strong play could give him a claim to more playing time. Wide receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are likely to be the focal points of the passing game, but we know from Ben Johnson’s time as the Lions offensive coordinator that he isn’t afraid to spread things around. The Raiders defense ranks third in the NFL in zone coverage rate, which should benefit the Bears passing game as they have had a lot more success dealing with zone than man coverage. Expect Chicago to play with pace and an elevated pass rate early in this game as Johnson acclimates to the personnel he is now dealing with rather than the elite backfields he had in Detroit.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Packers visiting the Cowboys for a 46.5 total game with Green Bay favored by a whopping 6.5 points on the road. Wowsers. We have the Cowboys, who put up 40 on the Giants but have otherwise looked mediocre on offense, versus the Packers, who manhandled both Detroit and Washington before bafflingly losing to the Browns. The Packers defense has allowed just 44 points through three games, while the Cowboys gave up almost that many just to the Giants. It’s an interesting game that can go a lot of different ways. Let’s dig in.

DALLAS

On the Dallas side, Javonte Williams has seen declining snap shares for three weeks straight, while Miles Sanders is seeing his role grow. Javonte is still the lead back, but looking less bell cow-ish than he did in the first couple of weeks. The good news for Javonte is that his passing game role has been robust, with 15 targets in the first three games, and he’s also played very well so far. I’d set his range of outcomes at something like 14-21 touches, depending on how the game is going, with clearly more upside if Dallas keeps the game competitive. At $9,000, that makes him a little on the overpriced side – he’s not a bad play, but there’s a lot of fragility at this price. Sanders got a bit of extra run due to the blowout last week, with 4 of his 12 touches coming on the final drive when Dallas pulled their starters, so he really seems like more of a threat as a spoiler to Javonte than a player with an increasing role that makes him look like a good play. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, without CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys offense runs a greater risk of systemic failure, just as we saw last week when they struggled to score against the Bears mediocre D. Now they get a match made in hell against the Packers defensive unit. With a full week to prepare, maybe they won’t look quite so lost. We can expect to see George Pickens and Jalen Tolbert as full-time wide receivers with KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flourney in ancillary roles. Pickens is fully priced at $9,800 and a tough click on a really difficult matchup, but he has one of the highest ceilings of any skill position player (up there with Javonte and Josh Jacobs). Tolbert and Turpin, on the other hand, are both cheap for their most likely workloads, especially Tolbert, who at $3,800 is just not priced like a full-time WR2, even in a tough matchup. We can also expect Tolbert to be quite popular, given his price – he’s going to project as a great value option. It’s also worth noting that while Turpin played the lion’s share of the snaps left behind by Lamb’s injury last week, how a team approaches things on a full week of planning is often different, and Turpin has historically been a lightly-used gadget guy. It’s possible the Cowboys are fine letting him have more run, but it’s also possible that with more time to prepare, they return Turpin to his gadget role and give Flournoy more WR3 run. I don’t know which one happens here, but I’d aim to be overweight the field on Flournoy here, and I’d try to limit the frequency with which Turpin and Flournoy appear on the same rosters (though I would not outright eliminate them being paired together because their prices are very cheap and it’s feasible that both hit).

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is a good pass catcher, but I was stunned to see him priced all the way up to $8,400. He caught 13 receptions last week (for only 82 yards, lol) and 9 the week before in a massive shootout but it’s just hard to see that continuing. For one thing, his catch rate is well above his historical norms, and for another, predicting double digit targets for a player who has never in his career commanded that kind of target share is…aggressive. I’ll have him in my player pool, but he’s not someone I’m actively looking to get on a bunch of rosters. TE2 Luke Schoonmaker and TE3 Brevyn Spann-Ford are “cross your fingers and hope for a touchdown” options.

GREEN BAY

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Five island game Showdowns in one week! Wow. On Monday, the first game has the Jets visiting Miami for a 44.5 total game with the Dolphins favored by 2.5. The Jets get back Justin Fields, though it’s entirely possible Tyrod Taylor might be the better QB, and this game overall has a clean injury report, as there are no questionable tags to worry about. 

MIAMI

On the Miami side of things, De’Von Achane has shown a consistently high floor despite being attached to a fairly mediocre offense. He hasn’t done a lot on the ground with just 30 carries in three games, but he’s supplemented that with a massive 23 targets, second in the league at the running back position to just Christian McCaffrey. I think that Achane’s rushing work might be somewhat capped given how they want to use him as a pass catcher. They might be trying to constrain his workload at least a little bit, but he’s still had 21 running back opportunities in each of the last two weeks (and remember that a target is more valuable than a carry!). The only concern here for me, and with the caveat that it’s a very small sample, is that Achane only has 1 carry inside the 10 yard line while backup Ollie Gordon has 3. It’s possible that’s just variance, but it’s also very reasonable to think that Miami wants to protect Achane from those bruising goal-line carries. Either way, goal-line work or no, Achane carries the highest raw projection in this game. Gordon at $3,000 only had a couple of touches in the first two weeks, but then had 9 carries last week, including goal-line, which would make him look like a viable RB2 play if that role holds. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, things are a mess for Miami, but Tyreek Hill still has 23 targets, broke 100 yards against New England, and found the end zone against Buffalo. The Jets defense has given up at least 29 points in each game (seriously), and now they’re on the road. If there’s a spot for a Miami offensive explosion, this sure looks like a good one. Achane is a fantastic on-paper play, but I also want to bet heavily on Hill’s upside on a slate where the field is likely to pass him over in favor of Achane. Jaylen Waddle at $10k is a rather outrageous misprice for a guy who has seen a max of 6 targets so far. Waddle is very talented, but it’s just hard for him to find volume, and he doesn’t have the same kind of per-play explosiveness as Tyreek or Achane. He’ll be lightly owned, as this price is ridiculous. Consider him a highly contrarian tournament option. Malik Washington is probably a top-5 WR3 in the NFL in terms of talent – he’s also seen two 5-target games already, and at $3,600, that will play. He even has 6 carries! He’s a little too cheap, and so I think he’s going to catch some ownership, but he looks like a really strong value option. WR4 Nickeil Westbrook-Ikhine is a punt.

At tight end, Darren Waller is going to make his debut this week and is going to be on some kind of snap count. What kind of snap count? Who knows. On paper, he’s a really poor play, but I think Miami is likely to make the snaps count, and I expect his target rate when on the field to be fairly high. Given that he’s just $4k, he’s a somewhat interesting tournament play as I expect he will be very lightly owned (he’s very poorly projected around the industry, and projections drive ownership). It won’t take much to get above the field here, and while I don’t want to hit the lock button on Waller, I do want to be above the ownership of the field. Miami’s other TEs, Tanner Scott and Julian Hill, were already struggling for any fantasy relevance, and the return of Waller really puts the nail in the coffin for them. You can use them as punt plays, but I’d be shocked if either of them saw more than 2 targets. 

NEW YORK

Check back Monday morning for Xandamere’s Monday Night Football Slant!