XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 18 is upon us, and that means fantasy wildness as some teams choose to rest starters for the playoffs, and eliminated teams want to get a look at young players. However, we don’t have to worry about that for Saturday’s Showdowns, as the NFL has scheduled games in which both teams will be extremely motivated, starting with the Panthers at the Bucs. In this 43.5 total game with Tampa favored by 3, the winner makes the playoffs while the loser is eliminated. Well, unless the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, but that’s irrelevant since this game plays first.  The Bucs have collapsed of late, going 5-2 before their bye but then a Jets-esque 1-7 since, while the Panthers have ridden a midseason hot streak to a somewhat surprising 8-7 record (my buddy who has been a long-suffering Panthers fan is incredibly excited for this).

TAMPA BAY

On the Bucs side of things, the backfield looked like Bucky Irving’s at the start of the season, with 70%+ snap counts in his healthy games. He then got hurt, missed a chunk of games, and has averaged around 54% of the snaps in the five weeks since his return. In that time, we’ve still seen relatively robust opportunity counts of 19, 18, 19, 19, and 15 (keep in mind four of these games were losses, albeit close ones), which includes 14 targets. RB2 Rachaad White has played modest snaps while averaging 6.2 opportunities per game in that stretch, while Sean Tucker has earned a bit of a role and is taking 3.8 opportunities himself. Bucky has always been extremely inefficient since his return (and really overall this season). He’s averaging under 4 yards per carry on the season and has yet to go over that mark in any of his post-injury games. The Panthers, after starting the season tough on the ground, have been absolutely trampled of late, giving up over 100 rush yards to eight of their last nine opponents. So the matchup looks good. There’s some risk here, but I’m quite interested in Bucky. The snap counts aren’t great, but he’s still touching the ball a ton when on the field, and that’s in a bunch of unfavorable game scripts. As home favorites in the most important game of the season and in a great matchup, this feels like a get-right spot for Bucky. White and Tucker are fragile RB2 plays. Both are viable in tournaments, but since they’re cannibalizing each other, they aren’t quite the robust “RB2 in Showdown” plays we’re normally interested in using, and I would definitely max 1 of these guys. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bucs are finally at full strength with the primary trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka, and then their “main” WR4 of Jalen McMillan are all healthy. We’ve seen that for three games now, so let’s look at how volume has been distributed. In those games, Evans has 28 targets, Godwin has 19, Egbuka has 14, and McMillan has 14 (TE1 Cade Otton has chipped in another 10 while WR5 Tez Johnson has been mostly phased out of the starting offense, playing mid-teens snaps with 5 targets in that window of time). Evans is the top guy (duh), Godwin is earning a lot of volume but has relatively modest per-target upside with a 7.1 yard aDOT (if we take away his one huge 59 yard catch last week he would have a combined line of 15 catches for 99 yards in the three game sample we’re evaluating), McMillan has a healthy downfield role on a modest target share, and then Egbuka appears to have significantly fallen off since his early-season heroics.

• Evans is obviously the strongest on-paper play (duh) but also the most expensive – he’s the clear WR1 with a significant volume gap between him and everyone else, and his 27.3% red zone target share is borderline elite.
• Godwin has an extremely robust floor but a shaky ceiling.
• McMillan looks like a reasonable value option for his price.
• Egbuka looks clearly overpriced for his role of late. However, looking around the industry, most projection services seem to be really down on Egbuka – fair, given his price and target share, but we’ve also seen his upside plenty of times. He’s the riskiest of the Bucs wideouts on a per-dollar basis, but I would argue he’s got plenty of ceiling for his price, and his low median projection makes him an interesting but risky tournament play.

At tight end, Otton’s role has become much weaker with all the wide receivers healthy, and while his price is attractive, you will almost certainly need a touchdown out of him in order to matter and with just 4 red zone targets on the year (including many games without 1 or more of the primary wideouts), the odds here are extremely low. 

CAROLINA

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This is a huge game. The winner takes the NFC West and the overall number 1 seed in the NFC. Yeah, both teams will be going all out here. We have a 47.5 total game here with Seattle favored by 1.5. We also have a couple of critical injury tags with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall, both listed as questionable by San Francisco, but all the reports are expecting both to play. I’m writing this up as if that’s the case and that they will both be in normal roles, but you could, of course, bet otherwise in your builds. Worth noting is that the Seahawks have largely been winning with their defense. They’ve allowed only two of their last six opponents to even reach the 20-point mark, while Sam Darnold has been more “okay” than “good” since roughly midseason despite a pretty favorable schedule. The 49ers have been on an absolute roll on offense (I think they have something like two or three punts in the entire month of December), but their defense, ravaged by injuries, has been absolutely abysmal. The Titans put up 24 on them, Old Man Rivers and the Colts put up 27, and the Bears put up 38. We’ll talk more about how to consider the offense and defense dynamic between these two teams later on. For now, let’s dig into the positions.

SAN FRANCISCO

I feel like I’ve written up 49ers Showdowns quite a few times this year, so I have to keep writing up CMC, and there’s just not much to say about him. He’s very good. His role is elite. He has five games of 30+ DK points and only a single game under 15.7 points. If you pretended he never handled a single carry, his season receiving stats of 96/890/7 would rank him in the top 15 wide receivers by fantasy scoring….AND he gets carries, too. The matchup sucks, but the role is so damn strong. I do think the massive difference in matchup quality makes the CMC vs. JSN “who’s the best play” discussion an interesting one – and we’ll get into that in a bit – but on paper, CMC is, as always, an elite option. RB2 Brian Robinson has a very modest role in competitive games that is likely to be even more modest in this critical matchup. You can play him as a tourney dart throw, or he could fit in 49ers onslaught builds if you go that direction, as he could potentially play more if the game ends in an (unlikely) blowout. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the 49ers will run out Jauan Jennings and Pearsall as their primary wide receivers, with Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson splitting the WR3 role. Especially with Kittle healthy, San Francisco runs 11 personnel at a low rate. They use a lot of heavy sets with two tight ends or (more often) a fullback, so the first thing we can note here is that Robinson and Bourne are competing for snaps, and I would not play them on a roster together. The second thing to note is that Pearsall led Jennings last week by a wide margin. Pearsall put up a 5/85/0 line on 8 targets, while Jennings went 2/42/1 on 4 targets (annoyingly, if Pearsall had gotten that 38-yard score that Jennings pulled in in the second half, I would have had a solo win in that Showdown…grr). I wrote up that last game and noted Pearsall was a very interesting tourney play because his ceiling was as high or higher than Jennings, and he would be much lower owned, which turned out to be true; it just didn’t matter because of how wildly high scoring that game was. I’m not sure I’d view them the same this time because of the matchup. Seattle has absolutely throttled opposing wide receivers, especially deep stuff on the perimeter, which is where Pearsall makes his bread. Jennings and Pearsall are both primary guys and are thus playable (duh), but I want to be underweight here due to the matchup. Of the two, I have a slight preference for Jennings in this one.

The real star of the passing game show against Seattle, though, has been opposing tight ends. Seattle’s defense overall is great (this isn’t the Bengals we’re talking about here), but they do rank down near the bottom of the league in yards allowed to opposing tight ends, and now they’re facing one of the league’s best. Kittle is going to pull a ton of ownership as this defensive vulnerability isn’t exactly a secret, but he’s my favorite San Francisco pass catcher. We have to assume he’s healthy and playing his full role, which I think he is, but we cannot know completely for sure (want to get really crazy in large field stuff and play Jake Tonges? Have at it, I suppose). 

SEATTLE

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Wednesday. In fact, he has yet to practice the six previous weeks since his MCL sprain.
• WR Mason Tipton also did not practice Wednesday. He was limited throughout the week last week before sitting out, indicating he could have suffered a setback at the tail end of last week.
• The Falcons appear to be fully healthy outside of the absence of starting quarterback Michael Penix.
• Chris Olave’s 20.4 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) over the last three would edge Ja’Marr Chase for first in the league over the full season. He is on an absolutely torrid stretch.
• Bijan Robinson has scored 29.8 DK points in five of his last seven games.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Winners of four straight, the Saints appear to be putting the pieces together at the tail end of their first season under new head coach Kellen Moore. That said, those wins have come against the reeling Buccaneers, who have lost seven of their last eight, the Panthers, who have traded wins and losses for the previous 10 weeks, a Jets team on its third string quarterback, and a three-win Titans team. They have managed to score 20 or more in each of those four wins after failing to do so once in rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s first five NFL starts. The pace in New Orleans continues to be blistering, but a matchup with the Falcons will be their toughest test since the last time they met back in Week 12. The general principles of Moore’s offense persist through the quarterback change, with elevated rates of motion, play action, and bunch formations designed to generate space for his primary play makers to take advantage of. The motion is most interesting from the perspective of his offensive structure as he utilizes pretty much every eligible player on the field in various packages – everyone from Olave, to Juwan Johson, to Taysom Hill, to the backs gets in on the magic. That makes the offense extremely difficult for opposing defenses to diagnose.

Former Denver castaway Audric Estime took a commanding share of the backfield opportunities in Week 17 after the entire unit effectively took a back seat to one of the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) games of any team in any game this season a week prior. It remains to be seen if Kamara can make it back in time for the team’s final game of the season, although it certainly appears likely that he’ll miss his sixth consecutive game after missing practice again Wednesday. Estime handled 14 carries and saw one target on a robust 76% snap rate against the Titans, which combined with an increased snap rate from tight end Moliki Matavao to reduce the involvement of veteran “tight end” Hill, who played just seven offensive snaps. Estime would appear to have a path to 18-22 opportunities in the right game environment. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most rush yards per game (127.4), 4.6 yards per carry (26^th), and 22.5 DK points per game to opposing backfields. A total of 73.7% of Estime’s carries the previous two weeks have come behind zone concepts, against which the Falcons have held opponents to just 3.99 yards per carry while struggling to contain man/gap concepts (5.01 yards per carry allowed, sixth most in the league). The schematical matchup appears to be against Estime here.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Olave has put the league on notice the previous three weeks, accounting for a 0.33 targets per route run (TPRR), 3.26 yards per route run (YPRR), 352 yards, four touchdowns, and an elite 0.77 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) in that timeframe. His 20.4 XFP/G in those games would rank first in the league over the full season, 0.1 ahead of Ja’Marr Chase’s 20.3. The Falcons utilize the league’s fourth-highest rate of Cover-3 (39.0%), which has led to the second-highest rate of single-high alignments when combined with a slightly above-average 19.5% Cover-1 rate. Olave has completely dominated against single-high looks with Shough under center, responsible for a 0.31 TPRR (nobody else higher than the 0.22 of Johnson), 2.66 YPRR (nobody else higher than the 1.92 of Johnson), and 0.60 FP/RR in that split. The absences of Rashid Shaheed (trade), Brandin Cooks (release), Devaughn Vele (injury), and Mason Tipton (injury) had Kevin Austin playing in a featured role for the second consecutive game in Week 17, while Dante Pettis stepped into the WR3 role. We talked about the relative upside of Austin compared to some of the other cheap chalk last week, which appears to remain intact ahead of Week 18. Tight end Foster Moreau’s season also ended two weeks ago, which helps to explain the introduction of Matavao, who is a much better blocker than Johnson and Hill, into the offensive game plan.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TEs David Njoku (knee/personal) and Harold Fannin (groin) did not practice Wednesday and appear to be headed for absences.
• The Bengals appear to be near full strength as they prepare to finish their 2025 season.
• The Browns really don’t require many words to describe their game plan, which becomes increasingly mundane should Fannin miss.
• RB Chase Brown (illness) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday to start the week. That’s in the “something to keep an eye on” realm more than the “we’re expecting an absence” realm, as things currently stand.
• Cleveland DC Jim Schwartz has had Zac Taylor’s number in their meetings over the years.
• C Ethan Pocic, T’s Jack Conklin and Dawand Jones, and G Wyatt Teller are all on injured reserve for the Browns.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders was named the starter ahead of Week 12. Since that time, the Browns rank 20th in PROE while averaging 29 pass attempts per game. Sanders has accounted for multiple touchdowns in only one of six starts (his four-touchdown outburst against the Titans in Week 14) and has committed eight turnovers in his last four games. This is a team that derives its identity through its defense and offensive line, two areas that have experienced numerous significant injuries this season – part of the reason they have won just four games.

The Browns utilized a three-man rotation at running back last week in the absence of Quinshon Judkins and Jerome Ford, with Raheim Sanders leading the way with a 42% snap rate. Sanders saw 10 opportunities to the 13 of Dylan Sampson, while journeyman veteran Trayveon Williams handled just two opportunities on 12 offensive snaps. I would expect the timeshare to continue into Week 18 as the team finishes up its evaluation mode heading into 2026. It then becomes difficult to expect more than 12-15 opportunities for any one player in this backfield, largely rendering the elite matchup obsolete. The Bengals have allowed the most rush yards (148.9), third most rush yards per attempt (5.2), and most DK points per game to opposing backfields.

Projecting the Cleveland pass offense becomes extremely difficult if Harold Fannin misses this week, considering his stranglehold on opportunities through the air in recent games. There’s simply no telling what is likeliest to happen when you remove a player seeing a target on 29% of his routes, with a 2.09 YPRR and 31.3% first-read target rate. All we know is that Jerry Jeudy is likely to be the only pass-catcher in a near full-time role, with Isaiah Bond, Cedric Tillman, Malachi Corley, Gage Larvadain, Blake Whiteheart, Brenden Bates, and Sal Cannella all likely to mix in via package roles. That’s a poor setup considering the Bengals have been well above average against opposing receivers, and, more specifically, perimeter options. Your guess is as good as mine here, but we’re left with very little certainty or upside from this group against the Bengals. The final note here is that David Njoku or Fannin would be worthy of GPP consideration if either makes it back in time for Sunday, particularly so if the other misses.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams have faced, or forced, the highest (Packers) and third-highest (Vikings) rush rate over expectation (RROE) this season, with the Packers, in particular, facing absurd rush rates following the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons.
• QB Clayton Tune will start for the Packers, while the QB2 role is up in the air due to injuries to Malik Willis. That could leave Desmond Ridder in that role.
• The Packers appear likely to rest key starters after suffering two more defensive injuries in their Week 17 loss to the Ravens.
• WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion) is all but assuredly set to miss Week 18.
• TE T.J. Hockenson (shoulder) missed both practices for the Vikings through Thursday. He appears headed for another absence to end the season.
• RB Aaron Jones (hip) also did not practice through Thursday.
• QB J.J. McCarthy (hand) upgraded to a full session Thursday and should be in line to start for the Vikings.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

The Packers will start quarterback Tune in Week 18, even though Jordan Love cleared concussion protocol early this week. Malik Willis is dealing with hamstring and shoulder injuries, with the team uncertain about his ability to serve as the backup to Tune. That could leave recent acquisition Ridder as the QB2 in Green Bay this weekend. Either way, it’ll be Tune under center for the Packers as they wrap up their regular season locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The Packers have been a streaky team this season, losing to the Browns in Week 3 before tying the Cowboys a week later, then ripping off three straight wins before losing consecutive games to the Panthers and Eagles, then winning four straight before three consecutive losses to the Broncos, Bears, and Ravens. They’ve dealt with injuries throughout the year, so we can’t simply point to the fact that they started the year without multiple wide receivers, or lost Parsons for the season, or lost Love for two games due to a concussion. That’s simply the nature of the beast when you have a head coach that maneuvers his way through games as opposed to running up the score. A whopping 10 of Green Bay’s 16 games thus far have been one-possession games, with the team equally as unlikely to blow teams out as they are to get blown out, themselves.  That general game plan shouldn’t change, regardless of who is under center or how deep into the game the starters play.

Josh Jacobs has been on the injury report for the better part of the previous six weeks, this time with knee and ankle injuries. It was the same story last week, and he ended up seeing only four carries and one target on 13 offensive snaps (28% snap rate). I would venture a guess that we don’t see him handle a workhorse workload in game with zero meaning to the team’s postseason seeding, likely leaving Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks to handle increased workloads as the primary options. Wilson is an oversized, between-the-tackles grinder with sneaky hands while Brooks profiles purely as a change-of-pace, pass-catching specialist, meaning we should see clearly defined roles with neither back running away with the usage. The Vikings have held opponents to just 4.0 yards per carry (sixth) but face one of the highest opponent rush rates this season, leading to an average of 123.9 rush yards per game against (22^nd).

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PFP the OWS pennant

Wicks appears highly likely to be absent in Week 18. Savion Williams upgraded to a limited session Thursday and appears likely to play, which could give the Packers the ability to limit the starters (Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave). I would expect Williams, Bo Melton, and tight end Josh Whyle to see growing roles as the game progresses, particularly considering the recent run of injuries the Packers have experienced to end the season. That could also include a practice-squad elevation, although the team is in desperate need of additional bodies on the defensive side of the ball as well. Either way, I wouldn’t expect full-time roles for any of the starters in a meaningless game. The fact that Tune is starting under center also limits the appeal of the Green Bay pass catchers. I think we can confidently write off all options on a large slate.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RBs Javonte Williams (shoulder/neck) and Malik Davis (calf/eye) did not practice for the Cowboys Wednesday or Thursday.
• TE Jake Ferguson (calf) upgraded to a limited showing Thursday and appears to be tracking to play in Week 18.
• WR Wan’Dale Robinson (ribs) has yet to practice this week for the Giants.
• WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Theo Johnson have both not practiced this week due to illness.
• I would expect the Cowboys to tilt much more pass-heavy should both Williams and Davis miss, considering the only remaining running backs on the roster would be rookie Jaydon Blue, who has been active in only four games this season, and practice squad back Israel Abanikanda.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The addition of a viable running back in Javonte Williams has given the Cowboys the ability to be a bit more balanced this season when compared to previous years, coming into Week 18 ranked ninth in PROE. That said, a defense allowing the most points per game (29.8) has kept its aerial aggression high, averaging the third most pass attempts per game at 37.5. That could take an even bigger step forward against the Giants after both Williams and primary backup running back Malik Davis have yet to practice through Thursday, something that could leave rookie Jaydon Blue as the primary back for the Cowboys. Blue has not been active on game day since Week 8 and only had a four-game spurt up with the team following the injury to Miles Sanders, which would make it likelier, in my mind, that we see the team heavily focused on moving the football through Dak Prescott, should the top two backs miss. Stay tuned for news out of Dallas on Friday, as the status of their backfield could have a meaningful influence on their game plan and tendencies come Sunday.

As was discussed above, the career resurgence from Williams has given the Cowboys the ability to be slightly more balanced than they have been in recent seasons, something that could change drastically should both Williams and Davis miss. Both backs have yet to practice this week and appear to be in legitimate danger of missing the season finale against a divisional foe. Although it would be Blue pretty much alone in the backfield if both top backs miss, the team would likely elevate Israel Abanikanda on Saturday, who is the only running back currently on the team’s practice squad. I would also expect a more pass-focused offense that runs primarily through Prescott and the pass-catchers, leaving Blue and Abanikanda to share the load in the backfield. Abanikanda profiles as the better early-down option, while Blue profiles as a change of pace back, which is the expectation I would have if the two enter Sunday as the top options. The Giants present a plus matchup on the ground, having allowed the most yards per carry (5.3) and largest explosive run rate this season, but I have my doubts as to the Cowboys’ desire and/or ability to take advantage of the situation if both top backs are out. That stance changes significantly if either Williams or Davis is active, and we should expect the one who plays to handle a potential workhorse role in a sparkling matchup.

Under the assumptions derived above, I would expect Prescott to have a clear path to 35-45 pass attempts this week. Dock that projection slightly if Williams or Davis play, but both are currently trending towards an absence. Ryan Flournoy appears set to return from a one-game absence to join CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as the top receivers, with Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin on hand for situational snaps at wide receiver. Tight end Jake Ferguson appears in line to not miss any games with a calf injury sustained last week that limited him to only 27 offensive snaps. The Giants rank fourth in the league in man coverage rate (37.1%) and fifth in the league in single-high alignments. Lamb leads the team in TPRR (0.33) but trails Pickens in YPRR (3.43 to 3.06, both still elite) and FP/RR (0.64 to 0.53) as the top two options against man coverage for the Cowboys, while the two also run away with underlying metrics against single-high (Pickens: 0.28 TPRR, 3.55 YPRR, 0.75 FP/RR; Lamb: 0.30 TPRR, 2.99 YPRR, 0.55 FP/RR). Ferguson is a distant third in all three metrics, although he carries an elevated red zone role for the Cowboys this season. All three primary pass-catchers are in a good spot this week, and there is clear potential to stack from one to three of with Prescott in this spot.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams have faced or forced the two highest opponent PROE values in the league this year.
• The Titans have shifted to a “sum of all parts” pass offense, with nobody seizing control of a primary, or alpha, role.
• Jacksonville ranks eighth in PROE and first in scoring since their Week 8 bye, and gets an opponent that has forced the highest opponent PROE in the league.
• The Jaguars lead the league in scoring since their Week 8 bye, a mark that would also rank first in the league if extrapolated to the full season.
• RB Bhayshul Tuten is expected to return following two missed games.
• RB Tony Pollard has averaged 113 yards rushing per game in his last four while averaging 20.5 opportunities per game in that stretch.
• WR Van Jefferson is reportedly “done for the season” after sustaining a forearm injury in Week 17.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have long been eliminated from postseason contention, but have consistently proven they will not be riding off quietly into the offseason night. They’ve played some solid opponents to tight games in recent weeks, losing 27-20 to the Chargers, 16-13 to the Texans, 30-24 to the Seahawks, 37-24 to the 49ers, and 34-26 to the Saints in the last eight games, a span that also includes wins over the Browns (31-29) and Chiefs (without Mahomes, 26-9). It was really only a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars, where they were completely run off the field in the second half of the season. I don’t know how much this comes into play, but the Titans appear to have their quarterback of the future in Cam Ward, potentially placing them in a far different situation than other bottom-dwelling teams in the league. For example, we saw the Giants embarrass the Raiders just last week, with the Giants already having their quarterback of the future and the Raiders clearly in need. Again, this is pure speculation, but that could be the difference between the underlying, implicit motivations behind the scenes over these final few weeks. Which is to say, the Titans are simultaneously playing better football in the second half of the season and continuing to legitimately try to win games. We should expect the same fervent tendencies as they complete their 2025 regular season against a divisional opponent.

Tony Pollard has gone over 70 yards on the ground five times this season, four of which have come in the last month of play. He is averaging 113.0 yards per game with a solid 7.7% explosive run rate in that timeframe, scoring three touchdowns. That said, he continues to cede primary work in the red zone to Tyjae Spears, having not seen a carry inside the five in the last four games. He has as good a chance to see 20 opportunities as just about any running back on the slate. The pure rushing matchup is a poor one against a Jacksonville defense yielding just 3.9 yards per carry (fourth) and 18.8 DK points per game to opposing backfields (second), but any back with an expectation of 18-22 opportunities can return GPP-relevant scores if touchdown variance works in their favor. Spears is playing a role similar to that of Kenneth Gainwell as the primary change-of-pace option, with increased usage in the red zone, although his per-snap opportunity rate is much lower than that of Pollard (or Gainwell, for that matter).

Ward has averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game since Week 9, which consists of their last eight games and their bye. They rank 19^th in PROE in that span, typically marrying their offensive tendencies to the game environment in which they find themselves. In other words, we’re likely to see them begin in a run-balanced offensive stance before adjusting aggression levels based on the scoreboard and game flow. Considering the clear pass-funnel matchup, the fact that the Jaguars have averaged over 31 points per game in the second half of the season, a 12.5-point spread, and the fact that the Titans are allowing 27.3 points per game, it stands to reason that we might see increased aerial aggression as the game progresses here. The biggest problem for us in a fantasy setting is that the team has transitioned to a “sum of the parts” offense through the air, with no pass-catcher in a route at even a modest 70% frequency in the previous month of play. Chimere Dike (68.9%), Elic Ayomanor (65.2%), Chig Okonkwo (55.6%), Van Jefferson (47.4%), and Gunnar Helm (35.6%) are the top pass-catchers as far as route participation is concerned in that span, with James Proche (31.1%) also rotating through in a rotational role. The expected absence of Jefferson should rotate Proche into a more prominent role on the perimeter. Those recent tendencies simply leave little room for upside to develop or concentrate, making this pass offense of little interest to us outside of game stacks in MME formats.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Dalton Schultz missed practice on Wednesday for personal reasons. That doesn’t immediately place his status for Week 18 in question, although we’ll want to monitor his status the remainder of the week.
• The Texans could be without key defensive players, as Azeez Al-Shaair, Kamari Lassiter, Derek Stingley, Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry did not practice on Wednesday.
• CB Sauce Gardner found his way back to a missed practice on Wednesday after sustaining a calf injury in Week 17.
• Head coach Shane Steichen announced early this week that rookie Riley Leonard will start for the Colts in Week 18.
• This game does not strike us as one with a ton of certainty.

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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts will turn to rookie quarterback Riley Leonard to close out their regular season. The team was eliminated from playoff contention before playing in Week 17, but started veteran Philip Rivers after preparing for it all week. It has been a true fall from grace for the Colts this season after sitting at 8-2 in their first 10 games, with Week 18 presenting the potential for the team to go 0-7 to finish the season following their Week 11 bye. Currently instilled as 10-point road dogs, that definitely appears to be the likeliest scenario. We haven’t heard any additional coach speak from head coach Shane Steichen regarding expected playing time for his typical starters, although I have to think the team might be looking to get more game reps for youngsters, which could include running back DJ Giddens and potentially Laquon Treadwell and Coleman Owen, if active on game day.

The “pass to score, run to win” mantra from Steichen has hit running back Jonathan Taylor harder than any other player on the team, considering the Colts have not won a game after their bye. Taylor averages 33.1 DK points per game in wins this season and just 13.2 DK points per game in losses, peaking at only 17.4 DK points in a loss. Furthermore, 2025 fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens returned from an extended absence in Week 17 and could be more involved in the offensive game plan, limiting Taylor’s workload and upside in the process. Finally, the Texans have held opposing backfields to just 20.8 DK points per game while ceding the third fewest rush yards per game. This certainly does not appear to be a promising spot on paper for the veteran workhorse.

We have such a small sample with Leonard under center for the Colts that it becomes extremely difficult to hammer down how we expect the offense to look this week. The only thing we have to go off of is the fact that Leonard’s Colts offense was almost entirely based in the short areas of the field after averaging only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in relief in Week 14, effectively removing the per-target upside of Alec Pierce in the process. Leonard leaned on Pittman heavily in that game, with the veteran X finishing the game with 12 targets in an extremely negative game environment. Realize that any player in a short-to-intermediate-area role requires both heavy volume and a score to return GPP viability, while also likely needing some sort of broken play to pierce the 100-yard threshold to hit the bonus. That isn’t likely in this matchup, but it is within Pittman’s range of outcomes here. I would call all other pass-catchers shaky bets this week, which includes Pierce, Josh Downs, rookie tight end Tyler Warren, Ashton Dulin, and Mo Alie-Cox.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Jets have been outscored 153-46 over the past four weeks and have been putrid on offense with rookie QB Brady Cook under center.
• Buffalo’s approach to this game could be altered by the result of the Texans game in the early window on Sunday.
• Bills star QB Josh Allen has not practiced yet this week due to a foot injury.
• Bills RB James Cook has a narrow lead for the NFL rushing crown and will know his target number when the game kicks off.

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets seem to have conceded their fate in the 2025 season and have been absolutely getting destroyed for the past month. They are giving up nearly 40 points per game over the last four weeks while barely averaging over 10 points themselves. Their offense has averaged under five yards per play in each of those games and has been a complete disaster. Right now their defense is playing at a historically bad level, and their offense is about as inept as you can find in the NFL. A lack of playmaking on both sides of the ball, combined with being dominated at the line of scrimmage, has led to games where they are swiftly put into negative game scripts and it often feels like we are watching their opponents practicing their plays against “dummy” defense that is just out there to simulate what a real game might look like. Apologies for being so blunt, but rewatching these games has not felt like witnessing a professional product in any sense of the word. 

Running back Breece Hall was the lone bright spot for the Jets last week, as he busted out a 59-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter for New York’s only score of the game against a Patriots defense that had mostly backups on the field at the time. He finished with 129 total yards on 16 touches, which accounted for nearly half of the team’s offense. This week the Jets face a very tough Bills defense that will not allow QB Brady Cook to find anything meaningful through the air, and which should have no trouble containing the Jets on the ground early in the game. The Bills defensive weakness this season has been power running teams that are able to physically dominate them up front. New York’s only real threat is Hall at this point, but they are not strong up front, and Buffalo should have no trouble containing their running game on early downs and forcing long third-down situations that Cook will struggle to convert into first downs. Cook has actually limited turnovers early in games during his starts, but that has largely been due to the extremely conservative play calling the Jets have shown. The Jets have scored four touchdowns in total over the last four weeks. One was a punt return and another was Hall’s long run against backups last week. Only one of those four scores occurred in the first half of a game. We can expect very little movement from the Jets offense early in this game and a lot of punts.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Ben Johnson has promised the Bears will play to win, but there is always a risk that he doesn’t keep his word.
• Dan Campbell will try to win, but he could be more conservative with guys who are nursing injuries.
• These teams are mirror images. They both want to win on the ground. They both use a split backfield.
• Both defenses have been bad against the run, making it highly likely that each offense attacks on the ground.
• Amon-Ra. St. Brown is considered day-to-day. If he sits, it will elevate Jameson Williams.
• Luther Burden and Rome Odunze are both dealing with injuries. Johnson will have to make a difficult decision about playing them or trying to rest them for the playoffs.
• This is a revenge game for David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The 8-8 Lions come into Week 18 as one of the most disappointing teams of the year. The Lions were probably the best team last season. They lost a heartbreaking game at home in the divisional round as the number one seed in the NFC. They might have also been the best team in 2023, when they lost by three points in an instant classic NFC championship game against the 49ers. When you win, your coaches get hired by other teams (Ben Johnson), and it’s easy to forget that it was the Lions who bucked the pass first trend in the NFL. They were able to run over defenses that were designed to stop the pass, but the meta has changed over the last five years. Everyone started to mimic the Lions approach, and now defenses are focusing on stopping offenses that play, well, like the Lions. Week 18 is all about motivation, and even though the Lions have nothing to gain, Dan Campbell built Detroit into a winning franchise by bringing a knee-biting attitude. He started his head coaching career with a losing Lions team and frequently talked about how he used meaningless games to judge who had the right mentality. The Lions are going to play hard, even if winning does nothing but hurt their draft position.

The Bears have been hurt on the ground (28^th in DVOA), and they are weak against the pass (24^th in DVOA). The Bears have won a lot of close games and have the lowest point differential (+ 29) of any division winner. The Lions have a much worse record than the Bears, but are better (+65) in point differential. The Lions are a run-first offense (26th in PROE) and play at a moderate pace (14th in seconds per play). That has been their formula since Campbell took over as head coach, but this season their O-line (21st ranked by PFF) took a significant step back. They’ve struggled at center and never found a replacement for Frank Ragnow, who retired unexpectedly at only 29-years-old. The Lions aren’t going to change anything in the last week of the season against a defense that has struggled to stop the run. Expect the Lions to attack with their typical run to set up the pass offense.

How bears Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson

• The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth, but are locked into a Wild Card spot, and announced early in the week that QB Justin Herbert and other key starters would not play in this game.
• Dual threat QB Trey Lance is set to start for the Chargers.
• Denver needs to win this game to clinch the top seed in the AFC.
• The Broncos defense has been dominant against weaker opponents and are set to face a team of backups.
• Broncos head coach Sean Payton is not afraid to run up the score on inferior opponents and may look to build confidence in his offense heading into a bye week if they are in control in the second half.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have decided to err on the side of caution this week and will rest star QB Justin Herbert, along with many other key players in this divisional tilt that up until last week appeared that it may have massive playoff implications. The Chargers lost to the Texans last Saturday and if they had pulled out the victory this game would have been for the AFC West crown. Instead, the Chargers are content with accepting wherever they fall in the playoff seeding and taking the “bye” week to get healthy prior to a potential playoff run. This is a team that has battled injuries to their backfield, defense, offensive line, and even Herbert has been nursing a broken bone in his hand in recent weeks. The Chargers have shown they can compete with anyone when healthy and prepared, and have wisely chosen to optimize themselves for the Wild Card round.

What this means for this week is that QB Trey Lance will be under center and in control of the offense against a dominant Broncos defense that can be suffocating to opposing passing games and is very strong up front. The Broncos need a win to lock-up the #1 seed in the AFC, so it is safe to assume they will be bringing the full experience to Lance’s doorstep in this one. Los Angeles has been struggling with offensive line issues that Herbert has been able to overcome in most weeks, but this week they will be down even more key players up front as they try to preserve the few healthy and effective bodies they have left. This means they will essentially have a backup offensive line against one of the league’s toughest defensive fronts. The Broncos secondary is also notorious for being a lock-down unit and assuming the Chargers also rest their top receivers, it is unlikely that there will be many open receivers for Lance to pass to. The reality is that Lance is primarily a runner and struggles with a lot of the traditional things about the quarterback position. Expect the Chargers to run the ball at a high rate and limit the concepts they ask of Lance, while hoping to turn this into a low-scoring defensive battle.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Kansas City will once again be starting Chris Oladukun at quarterback after his underwhelming performance on Christmas Day.
• Kenny Pickett is likely to start this game for Las Vegas due to an ankle injury to Geno Smith that has not allowed him to practice this week.
• Tight end Michael Mayer had a massive 36% target share last week with Brock Bowers out of the lineup, but most of those targets were with Smith under center.
• Despite their claims to the contrary, the Raiders have a lot of incentive to not win this game and maintain the top spot in the 2026 NFL Draft.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs season has been a struggle throughout and has only taken turns for the worse in recent weeks. They lost their top-two quarterbacks to torn ACLs in consecutive weeks and now have questions facing them for 2026 as they hope to have franchise cornerstone Patrick Mahomes back in time for training camp. The Chiefs defense has been decent this season and has been a unit that hasn’t been beaten badly all year. Only twice this season has an opponent (DAL and JAX) scored 30+ points against the Chiefs, with the Jaguars needing a defensive touchdown and a last-minute desperation drive to accomplish that. The fact that their defense is solid enough to limit scoring from opponents, especially weaker ones, should allow the Chiefs to play a conservative and ball-control-focused offense this week against the struggling Raiders offense.

The Chiefs will turn to 26-year old Chris Oladokun as their starting quarterback once again this week. Oladokun was thrust into action two weeks ago against the Titans when Gardner Minshew tore his ACL in the first half. Oladokun was someone very few NFL fans even knew existed prior to that week, and his performance in that game on short notice against a dominant Broncos defense left a lot to be desired. Over two games of action, Oladokun has completed 24 of 38 passes (63%) for 177 yards, which comes out to only 4.7 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown one touchdown, zero interceptions, and taken five sacks while only attempting two rushes in each game. Oladokun is the definition of a backup quarterback in the sense that he can run the offense, but things are very conservative to protect him from himself and rely on ball control, field position, and their defense to give them a chance to win games. The best thing we can say about this spot for Oladokun is he has 10 days to prepare for this start against the worst team in the league (who may or may not be trying to lose) after having only four days to prepare for a matchup with the Broncos who are among the best defenses in the league and the current top team in the AFC. The swing in terms of preparation and likelihood of success can’t be understated.

The Chiefs backfield involves three players, with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco sharing duties and rookie Brashard Smith mixing in on passing downs. Smith caught a touchdown pass last week on a designed play in the red zone. Oladokun’s situations thus far haven’t led to him targeting receivers at a very high rate, as Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Hollywood Brown were each targeted only three times against the Broncos elite secondary. They each saw three targets the previous week against the Titans as well. The real story this week for the Chiefs is the potential final game of future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce. I would expect the Chiefs to let Oladokun pass at a much higher rate this week than he did against Denver, and Kelce to be targeted early and often. Kelce saw a 27% target share last week with six targets on 22 Oladokun attempts, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is around 35% this week while Oladokun throws the ball 30+ times. The Chiefs are likely to have a lot more offensive success this week than they have against the Titans and Broncos, and Kelce is likely to be the focal point of their attack with nothing else meaningful on the table.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Arizona wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled out, which leaves WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride in line for massive target shares once again. 
• These teams faced each other just a few weeks ago and the Rams won 45-17 in a game where they scored on their first five possessions.
• Los Angeles will likely play this game without RB Blake Corum and WR Davante Adams.
• The Rams approach to this game may be influenced by the results of Saturday’s showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s approach at this point in the season is relatively predictable. They are one of the more pass-happy offenses in the league with Jacoby Brissett under center and their defense is getting gashed on a weekly basis. Arizona has allowed opponents to score 37 or more points in five of their last eight games, including last week against the Bengals when Cincinnati casually dropped 37 points and dispatched of them easily. The Cardinals defense under head coach Jonathon Gannon had been relatively successful the last couple of seasons playing conservatively and executing a “bend but don’t break” philosophy that forced opponents to march the field with long drives and led to a lot of lower scoring games that were close and competitive. Over the last couple of months, however, the dam has broken and there has been a lot of “breaking” going on for this defense as they allow teams to consistently move the ball and have been giving up far more explosive plays than we had seen over the past three seasons. This defensive failure along with the increased pass rate with Brissett under center has resulted in a lot of wild game environments for the Cardinals.

This week against the Rams is likely to be no different. We saw Bijan Robinson go nuclear on this Rams run defense on Monday night, but he is in another stratosphere of talent from most running backs in the league and that is the case to an even greater degree relative to the lack of talent Arizona has in their backfield. The Cardinals are likely to be chasing points early and unable to run the ball effectively, resulting in another high volume passing game for Brissett. The team will be without Marvin Harrison Jr., which means TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson should see a ton of targets. Wilson had the best game of his career the first time he faced the Rams, with 142 yards and two touchdown receptions. McBride is looking to set and extend the NFL record for receptions by a tight end and should also be heavily targeted against a Rams defense that plays primarily zone coverage and gives up a lot in the underneath and intermediate areas. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• After a terrible start to the season, Miami has won six of its last nine games and has been competing at a high level in most weeks.
• Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers will start for the third game in a row for the Dolphins.
• New England has an outside shot at the #1 seed and will know prior to kickoff of their game if they need to win to hold onto the #2 seed in the AFC.
• Patriots WR Stefon Diggs and DT Christian Barmore have each had legal issues in the news this week, but no suspension for either seems imminent.
• The first meeting between these teams was back in Week 2 in Miami, with the Patriots winning a 33-27 game that had four lead changes.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins are coming off an inspired victory over the Buccaneers in which their defense showed up and played well while their offense made a couple of big plays to build a lead and was able to play a methodical, ball-control offense the rest of the way as they maintained their lead and pulled off the upset. The team has had two starts with rookie QB Quinn Ewers under center and got dusted by the Bengals in the first one before last week’s performance at home against the Bucs. This week, they face one of the top teams in the NFL on the road while dealing with injuries across their roster. The Dolphins have historically struggled the last few years in cold weather games, and much of that has been blamed on QB Tua Tagovailoa’s skill set and lack of arm strength and running ability, but really, the entire Dolphins team is not built in a way that suits these cold weather games and this is likely to be another tough spot for them.

Star running back De’Von Achane missed practice all week and was deemed a “game-time decision” for Sunday due to a shoulder injury. Logic tells us that the team won’t put him on the field in this spot with their season coming to a close. The Dolphins also placed tight end Darren Waller on injured reserve on Friday, while wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was limited all week with a rib injury that held him out of much of last week’s game against the Bucs. The Dolphins ran the ball 30 times compared to only 22 passes from Ewers last week as they were able to control things. They will undoubtedly try to lean on their running game again this week, and Jaylen Wright will likely be their feature back in a very tough matchup. Assuming Achane, Waller, and potentially Waddle are out, that will leave their passing game to center around wide receivers Malik Washington and Cedrick Wilson, along with tight ends Greg Dulcich and Julian Hill. Dulcich was targeted six times on only 20 snaps last week and is a clear favorite target for Ewers. Expect him and Washington to be the primary receiving options in this one, especially without Achane on the field to take a large portion of the targets.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Washington will start 39-year old QB Josh Johnson for the second consecutive week due to injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.
• Philadelphia is expected to bench most of its key players in this game after announcing early in the week their plans to get healthy for the playoffs.
• Eagles backup QB Tanner McKee will get the start in this game, which comes to the delight of many Eagles fans as he has looked great in the preseason and limited action last year.
• These teams met just two weeks ago, but due to the Eagles decision to rest many players, there is not a lot we can learn from that game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders offense played well in Josh Johnson’s start last week against the Cowboys, accumulating 23 points and over 300 yards despite only running 41 offensive plays. Washington averaged a robust 8.0 yards per play, which was bolstered by a long run by rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt and a couple of chunk plays through the air. The Commanders were able to consistently have success moving the ball, as only one of their eight drives resulted in a three-and-out. This is a very high success rate, especially for an offense with their third string quarterback. A big part of that sustained success likely had to do with the fact that they were facing a below average Cowboys defense that has struggled to get people off the field all season. This week, the Commanders face an Eagles defense that is extremely tough and forces a high rate of three-and-outs for opponents, but is likely to rest some key components of their defense. Despite the high efficiency for Washington last week, the overall play volume was very low due to the fact that their own defense couldn’t get off the field and their own struggles on third down and in the red zone. Washington converted only one of six third downs and had to settle for short field goals of 23 and 29 yards on red zone trips. This was ultimately the difference in the game and the reason they lost 30-23.

Washington trailed the entirety of last week’s game and still only passed the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. The Commanders continue to run a balanced offense and should do the same this week. JCM is coming off the best game of his career, and it would make sense for the team to lean on him as their primary back in their season finale as they look to 2026 and will want/need as much data and film as possible to evaluate what they do at the position this offseason. Fellow running backs Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols are likely to stay involved as well, resulting in an unpredictable timeshare, but logic suggests that JCM will be the primary runner. Through the air, the primary targets for Johnson were wide receivers Deebo Samuel Sr. and Terry McLaurin, along with second year tight end Ben Sinnott. That trio combined for a 75% target share, and it would be surprising to see that change this week. We should expect another balanced offensive game plan for the Commanders with relatively predictable usage in what is a difficult on-paper matchup, but may in reality be much softer due to the Eagles expected personnel decisions.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 18 finishes up with a must-win game for the Steelers and Ravens. Whoever wins takes the division and is in the playoffs; whoever loses misses the playoffs and goes home. The Ravens are 3.5-point road favorites in a 40.5 total game, so Vegas expects a fairly close and low-scoring game. The Ravens get back Lamar Jackson, and their defense has been playing much better of late, while the Steelers are still missing DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh has been playing pretty well this season and has exceeded at least my modest expectations, but this feels like a really tough spot for them. 

PITTSBURGH

We’ll start with the Steelers, who, without Metcalf, are going to have to lean hard on their 2-headed backfield of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Warren played an exceptionally small role last week with just 32% of the snaps – his second lowest total of the season – and 12 carries with no targets. Gainwell wasn’t much better with just 11 opportunities, though 4 of them were targets, and he played the most snaps he’s ever played in a game with Warren active. The game script was weird, with the Steelers attempting 39 passes (second most of the season for Aaron Rodgers), so that led to Gainwell’s surge as he’s the primary receiving back. This backfield has a lot of game script sensitivity. Warren’s role is primarily on the ground, but with a season-high of just 18 carries, it’s tough for him to find a ceiling unless he gets some explosive runs and/or finds the end zone. At a similar price point in a game script that is more likely to favor his role, I prefer Gainwell. Most projections do too, so this isn’t a sneaky play, but I think he’s a stronger option and don’t mind playing into the ownership at running back. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the wide receivers who played the most snaps last week were Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling – two players who weren’t even on the team a few weeks ago. Metcalf is hurt. Austin was hurt last week but should return this week. Roman Wilson played just 9 offensive snaps (though at least he was active last week!). This wide receiver room is probably the worst in the NFL. Out of 39 dropbacks last week, Thielen saw 5 targets, MVS saw 9 (and caught 3), Scotty Miller saw 7, and Wilson didn’t get one. MVS has the most upside here – he’s not a good player, really, but he’s played with Rodgers for years, and we know how Rodgers likes “his guys,” and he does tend to get deep targets and has a lot of per-target upside. He’s also just $3,200. He’ll be widely owned and is a volatile player, but the projection is robust given the extremely cheap price. Thielen is “fine” at his price point; he doesn’t need a ton, but he has little yardage upside, so he needs to either rack up PPR points and/or find a touchdown. Miller is most likely the one to see his role disappear with Austin’s return, so I wouldn’t play them together. Austin may end up playing the WR1 role, and at $3,800, he’s going to project similarly to MVS. Both are sub-$4k, and both are going to project as great value options. One interesting way to play them would be to pair them together, as I expect they will both be highly owned but likely not together, given the plethora of other cheap options.

At tight end, Darnell Washington was put on IR this week, which narrows down the workload split at the position and leaves Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith to benefit. Most projection services have Freiermuth as the winner here (a few around the industry have Freiermuth as the highest projected pass catcher on the Steelers). We know he’s talented, and it’s not like the wide receiver room is packed with talent. I think Jonnu is really interesting at what should be much lower ownership. He’s still going to be on the field a ton, but he’s projecting under all of Freiermuth, Austin, and MVS. I think they’re all pretty similar plays, though, so I’ll lean into the lowest ownership spot. These guys are all likely to be fairly popular as ways for people to jam in the expensive Ravens, Rodgers, and/or Gainwell. When we consider price and ownership, I’d rank them as Jonnu, Freiermuth, Austin, MVS, Thielen, but these guys are all pretty close (and volatile). 

BALTIMORE