SLATE Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Texans WR John Metchie (shoulder) and TE Cade Stover (illness) have yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it likely we see more of TE Irv Smith and WRs Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson against the Chiefs.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has practiced in full in each session this week after departing the team’s Week 15 victory over the Browns early.
- WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder) has practiced in full in each session this week and appears set to make his regular-season debut for the Chiefs.
- Steelers WR George Pickens is still not practicing due to his hamstring issue, likely indicating another missed game against the Ravens unless he can get on the practice field Thursday.
- Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) has yet to practice this week and is unlikely to play on a short week. WR Rashod Bateman was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant with a foot injury. RB Justice Hill missed Wednesday’s session for personal reasons.
- This slate is extremely interesting from a theoretical sense. The first game has a narrower range of outcomes but clearer paths to volume while the second game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes but lower certainty regarding where the production is likeliest to flow.
HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
We kept waiting to see improvements from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s play-calling tendencies, dating all the way back to last season – and it just hasn’t materialized yet. The individual structure of the unique plays is elite man, but you simply cannot be better than average in this league unless or until you stop placing your team in so many long down-and-distance situations. The magic of C.J. Stroud did a lot to overcome those tendencies last season and early this year, something that has truly been a struggle during the second half of the 2024 season. It’s an interesting dynamic to discuss, as the Texans are averaging more points per game than they were a season ago (23.4 versus 22.7 in 2023). Yet, the weekly upside has largely been lacking. The Texans scored 30 or more points five times last season and have done so just twice this year. Finally, Stroud has not attempted more than 34 passes in a game since Week 8 against the Colts, which highlights a more nuanced offensive approach now that they have a viable running back in Joe Mixon.
A case can be made that Mixon has the greatest role of any running back in the league. He ranks second in opportunity share (84.6%), fifth in red-zone opportunities while missing three games, and his 23.9 opportunities per game ranks first (yes, ahead of Saquon Barkley), all while facing the highest number of average defenders in the box in the league. That last bit is the most worrisome as Slowik’s play-calling tendencies have kept the offense predictable, allowing their opponents to diagnose the run at great frequency while making efficiency more difficult to come by for Mixon and the run game. That should combine with a matchup against one of the top run defenses in the league to a range of outcomes with an elevated floor and fewer paths to true ceiling. The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.67), 3.9 yards per carry (fourth), and the fewest fantasy points per game (13.6) to opposing backfields this season.
Week 15 was the first time we’ve seen Nico Collins’ snap rate and route-participation rate return to his pre-injury levels, which makes sense with the team coming out of its Week 14 bye. Stover’s absence last week forced the Texans to emphasize Dalton Schultz, who has seen his four highest snap-rate games in contests where the team had only two healthy tight ends, a situation they appear to be in again on Saturday. The offense has also utilized 12-personel at increased rates of late, which has capped the snap rates of Tank Dell and the tertiary pass-catching options (just 68% and 62% snap rates for Dell over the previous two games). The pure matchup through the air is best for Schultz against the inside-funnel Kansas City defense, and he should be on the field for almost every offensive snap considering the state of the team, making him an interesting bet on a short slate.
And then there’s Collins, a wide receiver I currently have as a top-five player in the league. But, his weekly volume has come down of late as the offense adapts to a more run-balanced nature, seeing double-digit targets in just one of four games post-injury after seeing 10 targets or more in three of his four fully healthy games to start the season. The per-target upside remains intact, but much of the damage Collins does is of the downfield variety, an area of the field the Chiefs look to take away. Even so, Collins clearly has the highest raw ceiling at the position on the slate.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.