I am very high on the Broncos offense, relative to the field and public sentiment this week. Jerry Jeudy was extremely popular in Week 2 at basically the same salary that he has this week, while Courtland Sutton was the overlooked Denver wide receiver. Jeudy is in a better game environment this week than he was in Week 2 and he’s projecting for under 3% ownership this week. This is the ultimate arbitrage opportunity where we can get a talented player in a good spot at low ownership for the same price. Jeudy is likely to see seven to ten targets and is a big play waiting to happen.
Cowboys D – Carson Wentz on the road against a fierce pass rush, at low ownership. Philly showed us that Wentz still has his bad days in him and I’m betting on another one this week.
Seahawks D – The Seahawks are cheap and they provide leverage off of two of the more popular players on the slate, Jamaal Williams and TJ Hockenson. We have seen over the course of Jared Goff’s career that he needs talent to elevate him, he is not an elevator of talent. Now that he is without his top two weapons, the field’s reaction is to bet on the Lions maintaining their efficiency as Goff just lifts everyone else up? Sorry, but I’m not buying it.
This isn’t about a specific player, but more so about the overall approach to this slate. So much content and analysis goes into every NFL week and everyone is looking to uncover hidden gems and be the smartest guy in the room. We have three quarterbacks and teams (PHI, BAL, BUF) who everyone was excited about coming off of Week 3 and now seem to be losing steam as Sunday approaches, due to a combination of weather fears and people finding shiny new objects. From those three teams, Mark Andrews and Stefon Diggs are currently the only skill (non-QB) players projecting for double-digit ownership. That is wild. All of AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie, JK Dobbins, and Rashod Bateman have the talent and game environment to make a splash. I personally have a “one Eagle on every roster” rule for this weekend and I think there is a strong case to find at least one Buffalo or Baltimore player a spot when you can as well. While the field appears to be outsmarting itself, I keep reminding myself to just keep it simple.
As alluded to in the defense section, the Lions offense is taking a big hit this week. Tyler Lockett projects to be highly owned, but this may be a chance for the Seahawks to lean on their run game the way Pete Carroll has always preferred and Rashaad Penny played 70% of the offense’s snaps last week. He has a low price tag, moderate ownership, and we’ve seen him smash before in a featured role when the offense performs well. Sign. Me. Up.