Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit: QB/RB

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 16’s action, including TWO Saturday games.

But first…

Last Week: 10-10 (.500)

– QB: 4-6 (40%)

– RB: 6-4 (60%)

2024 NFL Season: 184-116 (.620)

– QB: 94-56 (63%)

– RB: 90-60 (60%)

Quarterbacks

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers

Over/Under – 47.0

Opponent Rank v. QB: 27 (19.80)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 29 (20.61)

Folks, what can I say? I’m going back to the Murray well this week, even after the dud he laid at our feet in Week 1 of the playoffs. And he was in such a good spot, too, against the Patriots. To be fair, I did say he was boom or bust (unfortunately, I picked boom). Friends, the matchup this week is even better, and I have faith. If he could just find the endzone the numbers would be there, and this is as good a week as any. The Panthers are one of the best matchups for QBs, and the Cardinals need Murray to have a game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Cooper Rush just dropped 27+ on them, and I’m certain Murray can do at least that this weekend. Another juicy matchup next week with the Rams, so if Kyler does it here, we’re on cruise control next week, also.

Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 21 (21.20)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 6 (14.89)

Speaking of Cooper! Lou and I were chatting a couple of weeks ago about Cooper and Aidan O’Connell (RIFP – rest in fantasy peace) having pudding schedules coming up and if I was a moron for considering these guys over Purdy and Herbert. Well, folks, it turns out we were on to something. While O’Connell went down to injury against the Bucs, Cooper has been very palatable. In fact, if you go back five matchups, Rush has finished below 20 only once, highlighted by a 27-point, three-touchdown game on Sunday. This week it’s the Bucs who have been better as of late and have held their own against “lesser” QBs (DeVito, O’Connell, etc.). I’m not concerned about the matchup, though, as I expect a lot of offense here, and Rush is going to do enough to factor for us (Rico and CeeDee also).

Honorable mention: Baker Mayfield (TB), Russell Wilson (PIT), Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

My Fades This Week

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: @ Miami Dolphins

Over/Under – 44.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 1 (13.70)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 11 (15.41)

Did someone say Purdy? And he flashed (QB7) in Week 14 against a tough Bears team, right? Got our hopes up, and then Thursday night happened (and almost cost my season). Sigh. Purdy has been super sporadic since the bye week, and I sort of get it, what with the decimation of the RB group and inconsistency of the WR group? Kittle has been his steady, but it just hasn’t been enough for Brock or us. Purdy’s last five weeks – QB31, QB7, QB32, QB12, QB5. Do you want to trust that against a Miami defense that ranks first on the season and nearly top 10 in the last four weeks? Can you trust it may be the better question. I can’t. I won’t. I refuse.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Opponent: @ Chicago Bears

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. QB:2 (13.90)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 19 (17.49)

Did someone say Goff? Kidding, no one said it. And most certainly, you won’t see him in sit column this week after dropping nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns on the Bills. Except here. Me. I’m recommending him as a sit this week. Last week, I said sit Jalen and Baker, and we know how that turned out. But here I am recommending another stud as a sit. And the same thing as last week – if you go the other way, I would understand. And it may not be an absolute sit, but it definitely has big potential for a floor game. Look what the Bears just did to Darnold from a fantasy perspective – QB20 and barely 12 points. I know the aforementioned Brock dropped a QB7 on them, but the Bears continue to be one of the best defenses against QBs for fantasy scoring. During the Chicago Bears eighth straight loss on Monday, they flashed a graphic that I think is worthy of notice – the Bears have (had) the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league. Now, this makes sense because pressured QBs don’t play as well (a select few do), which has been the case for teams playing the Bears all season. This is a matchup consideration against a stingy unit in a bitterly cold game (real feel in the 20s), in a game where a heavy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs makes too much sense. Remember what I said – floor game.

Honorable mention: Spencer Rattler (NO), Bryce Young (CAR), Drake Maye (NE)

Running Backs

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: v. New York Giants

Over/Under – 41.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 29 (22.70)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (30.58)

Real quick – I just want to thank Robinson for hitting that 100-yard bonus for me and squeaking me into Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs. Thanks to Brock (mentioned above), I was in a tight spot. Moving on. I’m going to be counting on him again this week, and mannnnnn, he’s got a fantastic matchup against the Giants. Granted, Derrick Henry was just held in check by these very Giants, but my theory says the game script factored here – the Ravens passing game was so effective Henry wasn’t needed. The Falcons passing game has been far from effective, and they’re starting the rookie Michael Penix Jr. this week, so I expect a HUGE dose of Bijan. You were starting him anyway; I’m just here to reinforce that thought. Potential for RB1 on the week is real.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers

Over/Under – 47.0

Opponent Rank v. RB: 32 (26.50)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 20 (23.60)

James Conner has been one of the most consistent RBs in the league for us, and he’s surging when we need him the most. RB10 on the season, his floor is sturdy, and he’s capable of dropping 25+ in the right matchups. Enter the Carolina Panthers. Worst defense against the position all year and not much better than that here lately. This offense has leaned on Conner heavily the past three games (averaging 20+ touches during that span), and Trey Benson has been an afterthought. And he has the Rams next week? SWOOOOOOOOOON. Start him with confidence, as he has the potential to be a top 5 back this week.

Honorable mention: Jahymr Gibbs (DET), Jerome Ford (CLE), Bucky Irving (TB)

My Fades This Week

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Opponent: @ Buffalo Bills

Over/Under – 46.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 31 (24.90)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 30 (28.67)

Seems counterintuitive to recommend a sit against one of the league’s most generous units to RBs, but that’s exactly what is happening. And it’s less of a knock on Rhamondre and more of a nod to what figures to be a super negative game script. Josh Allen is on another level, and the Bills are favored by more than a touchdown (-7.5 feels too low to me). You may be tempted, but consider that Stevenson has only finished above RB23 once in the last five games, which included some tasty matchups as well. This game is going to get away from the Patriots early, and the Pats will be throwing to compensate. I suppose Rhamondre could see an elevation in targets; I just don’t think it will be enough.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under – 45.0

Opponent Rank v. RB: 7 (17.70)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 7 (18.00)

I want to love Najee Harris, I do. But he just continues to disappoint me on a fantasy level, week over week, year over year. Three weeks ago in Cincy, he looked like a stud (22 touches, 129 yards, a score – RB3 on the week). And Weeks 6 through 11 weren’t terrible. But as is the case with Harris, it’s the inconsistent results – and now isn’t the time for those shenanigans. Six finishes outside the top 30, another two outside the top 20, and only two top 10s all year. The floor is fairly sturdy, so if that’s what you need, go get it. The Ravens are really good against running backs and have been all season, so the matchup isn’t great. Add to all this a game script where the Steelers are chasing all game, and it doesn’t bode well for Harris. Unless he is all you’ve got, sit him on the bench for this one (and next week, also – KC).

Honorable mention: Gus Edwards (SD), D’Andre Swift (CHI), Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)