Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Optimal. That is our focus on this two-game slate. Are we tracking toward optimal, or how far off are we from projected optimal? Ownership plays a slightly different role in that equation than it normally would. More games equals more teams equals more players equals more opportunities for outlier production to exist. The opposite is also true in that there are fewer opportunities for outlier production on a slate with only two games. As for the relationship of ownership in that equation, things like injuries, blown coverages, the “oh shit” mode, and other variant acts aren’t the most likely thing to occur, but they alter the dynamic of a short slate more than anything else, meaning we would be doing ourselves a disservice by sticking solely to the likeliest scenarios. In other words, the smaller the slate, the more variance is present, and the more variance we should be actively looking to absorb into our builds. Which brings us back to ownership. Kenneth Walker is hands down the top point per dollar play on the slate. No question. But the fact that he is soaking up this much ownership should influence our decision-making process. More on this below, just wanted to get the brain primed for what is most important on this slate.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
We’re going to amend the process here slightly on a two-game slate and only look at the top ownership expectation at each position, something that will give us a solid feel for how the field is expected to handle the Conference Championship slate.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The top three quarterbacks on this slate are all clumped together in both price and expected ownership, with the only outlier being Jarrett Stidham of the Broncos. Maye’s rushing upside gives him the slight edge in projections, although any one of the four quarterbacks could find themselves in the optimal roster Sunday evening. It then becomes more about how we play these dudes and less about which of them to play.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Walker is projecting for almost double the ownership of any other running back on the slate. The thing is, it completely checks out on paper after his exploits of this matchup in these two teams’ previous meetings, with the absence of Zach Charbonnet increasing his range of outcomes further. He is also currently projected to score 50% more fantasy points than any other back, which is truly remarkable. Suffice to say, he is a fantastic play on paper, with much of the case to be made against him simply a product of his ridiculous ownership expectation. There is always – always – merit to leaving a player expected to garner 80%+ ownership off at least some rosters.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN boasts a 0.31 TPRR, 2.38 YPRR, and 0.60 XFP/RR over his last four games, while no other Seattle pass-catcher has seen a target on more than 17% of their routes in that same sample. He is simply such a massive part of the Seattle offense, and the addition of Rashid Shaheed has done wonders to keep opposing secondaries honest, opening up the middle of the field for JSN to work free. This is another fantastic spot on paper.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Henry gets the top schematic matchup of the tight ends on the slate. That said, projections are fairly modest on the veteran tight end, barely separating from the other options on the slate. This feels like a slate likely to be decided by which tight end finds paint.
