Long-time fans of the NFL should remember the historic rant from former Arizona Cardinals coach Dennis Green where he opined, “the Bears are who we thought they were.” Well, now that we are three games into the 2024 college football season, we are starting to develop our opinions on a lot of different players. As many teams enter their marquee non-conference matchups and conference schedules, it is time to see if many of these college football players are who we thought they were.
In direct contrast to last week, there are no quarterbacks on this week’s main slate priced above $8500 on DraftKings. This makes this week more about getting the quarterback position correct than trying to use it to save salary. Green has used his dual-threat ability to rack up fantasy points for Arkansas this season, needing only 11 pass completions to put up 27 fantasy points against UAB. He has carried the ball 35 times in the last two weeks. Expect him to use his arm and his legs to light up the scoreboard against Auburn this week. Green ranks as the #2 value play at the QB position, according to DFS Hero.
Maybe I’m crazy for putting him here because this could totally backfire. But I think that Alex Orji is the type of player who could win you a GPP on Saturday. Michigan’s offense has been very stagnant through 3 games, and now they will turn to Orji as the full-time starter. Like Green, Orji is a dual threat who has the chance to get the valuable 3-point bonus for 100 rushing yards on DraftKings. I expect Michigan to have a heavy advantage in the trenches in this game and lean on Orji’s running ability to help them move the ball. It could backfire, but it could also be genius.
DFS Hero’s #1 value play:
Tyler Shough, Louisville, $7300
Others receiving votes:
Behren Morton, Texas Tech, $8400
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame, $7700
This feels like the Phil Mafah breakout game waiting to happen. Mafah entered the 2024 season as the workhorse in the Clemson backfield, with Will Shipley now a Philadelphia Eagle. The Georgia game was rough sledding, but he still had 18 touches. Against App State, he only needed 10 touches to put up 20.8 DraftKings points. Against NC State last year, Mafah had over 80 yards and 2 TDs, and that was while splitting carries with Will Shipley! I love the usage, I love the matchup, and I love the price. DFS Hero agrees as he is their #2 value play at the RB position.
I think this year’s Notre Dame team is starting to learn that their path to victory, no matter the opponent, is going to be via the ground game. And Jeremiyah Love should be the beneficiary. He has taken ahold of most of the backfield’s touches, and he has a TD run of 25 yards or more in every game so far this season. I think the lower cost at $5500 allows you to do a lot with the rest of your lineup, and I do not anticipate him to be highly owned.
DFS Hero #1 value play:
Corey Kiner, Cincinnati, $5200
Others receiving votes:
Cam Skattebo, Arizona State, $7300
Micah Bernard, Utah, $5800
This is your super-obvious, very highly-owned, very clear misprice on this slate. Because DraftKings came out with their salaries before injury reports were released, DraftKings was under the assumption that Eugene Wilson III would suit up for the Gators this week. Well, he’s not. When Wilson was out against Texas A&M, Badger capitalized with 5 catches for 94 yards and a TD, and this matchup against Mississippi State is much juicier for WRs. DFS Hero ranks Badger as their #1 value play of the slate, so they agree with me on this one. If you’re worried about massive ownership, take a look at Chimere Dike.
Brooks would have owned the title of the slate’s biggest misprice if Wilson was suiting up. The Jeff Brohm offense at Purdue or Louisville features historically high target rates for the WR1. Well, through 2 games (albeit against minimal competition), Brooks has clearly served that role with 17 total targets. He’s underpriced and is in a great game environment against Georgia Tech, where the Cardinals are implied for 34 points. DFS Hero’s thinking aligns perfectly with mine, as Brooks is their #2 value play on the slate.
Others receiving votes:
Xzavier Henderson, Cincinnati, $6700
Andrew Armstrong, Arkansas, $6900
In the offseason, all of the experts and beat writers were expecting UTEP transfer Kelly Akhraiyi to take hold of the WR1 role in Starkville. Why does that matter? Mississippi State should see a ton of passing volume as the year goes on, thanks to their tempo and game flow as underdogs against most of the SEC. Well, thanks to an injury in the preseason, Akharaiyi did not suit up in week one and was slowly being onboarded in week 2. He is now a full-time player, and he could very well live up to offseason expectations just yet.
Chimere Dike HIGHER 42.5 Receiving Yards
Treveyon Henderson LOWER 87.5 Rush + Rec yards
Haynes King HIGHER 21.05 fantasy points
