Afternoon-Only 6.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

This Week’s Slate

• We once again have four games with one of those games (ARI // LAR) standing out above the rest with a game total of 48.5. The other three games all have totals of 41 or 42. This creates a fragile scenario where if that one game disappoints and one of the three “lower tier” games erupts, there is a clear “flip” to the slate. I doubt the Rams and Cardinals game will totally flop, but definitely something to consider when building.
• There are very clearly two teams who will be the least popular to play on this slate – the Patriots and Jets.
• Last week, we had late injury news on Javonte Williams which made Jaleel McLaughlin a very popular player on the Afternoon Only slate while he was under 3% owned in most Main Slate contests. There don’t appear to be any situations like that brewing for this week but it is something to consider and be aware of for future weeks. The one spot that I could see changing after the early games start would be the Arizona backfield. It wouldn’t be shocking for news to come out on one of Demercado or Ingram working as the “lead back” as we get closer to that game’s kickoff.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy