Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.
This week, we have a four game afternoon slate with all of the games being divisional rivals and varying amounts of weather concerns and a wide range of outcomes. The BAL/CLE game is a rematch and has bad weather in the forecast, with two very good defenses involved and one MVP candidate, and one potential benching candidate at QB. It wouldn’t be shocking if the SEA/LAR game is low scoring or high scoring. The KC/DEN game seems like it should be very competitive, but there is also a chance the Chiefs take control and win handily. In either case, it seems unlikely to be a shootout. The SF/ARI game has the 49ers offense finally back intact and their defense completely in shambles, but facing an injury-riddled Cardinals offense. What happens in that game on that side of the ball in particular will probably decide the fate of this slate. Is the 49ers defense so depleted that the Cardinals are able to have their way against them even with all of their own injuries? If so, Arizona stacks and stuff around this game will probably dominate the slate. Or does the Cardinals lack of talent among their skill players lead to them struggling against a 49ers defense lacking talent that is well coached? If the 49ers are able to control this one, that would probably knock out a lot of rosters built around this spot. I think when building rosters around any teams on this slate, we need to consider the SF/ARI game as well and what our “story” is saying about that spot.
The final angle to consider on this smaller slate is that we have three extremely high priced players (JSN, Puka, and CMC) all available. Basically, every roster will have one of them, while probably 20 to 30% of rosters will have two of them. From a strategy perspective, building rosters with either none of them or all three of them would be a clear and direct way to make your lineup unique.
Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
