Saints (

21.5) at
Lions (

28.5)

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Saints kept as many running backs as wide receivers (four) on the initial 53-man roster.
• RB Alvin Kamara suffered a Grade-2 MCL sprain on 18 August and is expected to miss Week 1.
• Lions traded RB David Montgomery to the Texans in exchange for OL Juice Scruggs and multiple picks. They also drafted OT Blake Miller in the first round.
• RB Isiah Pacheco was sent to IR with a bank injury, after which time the team said they “hope to have him back this season.” Yikes.
• This has all the feel of an “Amon-Ra and Gibbs spot” on paper – more on that below.
• WR Jordyn Tyson begins the season on IR.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Lightning McQueen, sorry, Kellen Moore, returns as the head coach and offensive play caller for the Saints after leading the league in PROE+ a season ago, a stat used to measure both pass rate over expectation and pace of play to get a more accurate depiction of situations most beneficial to play volume. That said, those tendencies are more a boon to the overall game environment than they are to the success of his offense. Per statrankings.com, Moore’s lowly 18.3 percent play action rate in 2025 ranked 28th in the league while holding an EPA/play better than only the Raiders, Browns, Titans, Jets, and Vikings, all of whom had clear limitations throughout the season. Low under-center play heavily influenced the ability to utilize play action effectively, and the team now has no clear downfield threat to expose the middle of the field. I’m very interested to see how Moore’s offense looks in the new season considering the relative lack of viable threats on the field. The Saints also ranked just 23rd in total offense a season ago all while averaging the 10th most offensive plays per game.

The team had needs up and down the roster and the biggest splash they made in free agency was the signing of running back Travis Etienne, who is now the proud custodian of the sixth richest running back contract in the league, in total value. The New Orleans offensive line looks strong on paper after adding guard David Edwards. Left tackle Kelvin Banks graded as the league’s top rookie lineman in 2025 and right guard Cesar Ruiz continues to play at a high level, leaving the biggest unknown in the hands of right tackle Taliese Fuaga. Even then, he is of first-round pedigree and is entering his third professional season so there is reason to be bullish on this unit. The matchup is middling on paper against a Lions defense that held running backs to the seventh fewest fantasy points per game but allowed 4.4 yards per carry, 0.9 rushing scores per game, and 114.6 rush yards per game. With Kamara expected to miss, only Kendre Miller and Audric Estime sit behind Etienne on the active roster, meaning the newly-paid lead back should see significant run in his first game on a new team.

Similar to Nico Collins in Houston, Chris Olave suddenly finds himself set up for immense weekly volume due to injury, this time to rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson. That said, Devaughn Vele served as an every-down starter for only four games for the Saints in 2025, during which time he ran the same number of routes as Chris Olave (131), saw an 88.8 percent snap rate (would be top-10 over a full season), and caught 15 balls to the 21 of Olave. Olave is still the dude through the air for the Saints, but it is an interesting comparison, nonetheless, particular due to Vele’s basement salary in Week 1. The fact that the team kept only four receivers through roster cuts implies one of two things. Either Bryce Lance is going to get significant run or the team intends on calling up one of the four receivers they have on the practice squad. Either way, expect the bulk of the damage through the air to flow through Olave, Vele, and tight end Juwan Johnson, likely in that order. I expect a receiver to take the game-day roster spot of Kamara (or Zach Wilson, who looks to be the emergency quarterback on the roster), but it really matters not for our purposes. Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard runs an aggressive unit with above average rates of man, single-high, and blitzes, all of which add to Olave’s ceiling here.