Ravens (

25.75) at
Colts (

22.75)

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Derrick Henry has led the league in rushing four times and has missed only one game in the previous four seasons, during which time he handled 1,261 carries.
• I expect the Ravens to challenge for the league lead in explosive plays. Lamar Jackson is healthy and Declan Doyle’s offensive scheme is built to generate space for his players.
• Zay Flowers is positioned well to fully erupt into the elite ranks at wide receiver.
• After a tumultuous offseason of injury concerns, the Colts appear to be nearing full health.
• This game carries sneaky shootout potential, something I think will go largely overlooked by the field despite the fact that it carries the third highest game total.
• The signing of Keenan Allen pairs with the offseason absence of Alec Pierce to force a situation in which Josh Downs stands as the player likeliest to see his role materially grow for the Colts entering 2026.

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Lamar Jackson won an MVP with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator and won another and finished runner-up the following season with Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator. He now gets Declan Doyle, who last year became the youngest offensive coordinator in the history of the NFL with the Bears. Doyle studied under Sean Payton and Ben Johnson during his come-up and blends a power run scheme with outside-zone concepts. He balances that with extreme pre-snap motion and play action rates while mixing in under-center play to maximize the cumulative effects. I expect the Ravens to challenge for the league lead in explosive plays when you marry the scheme with the threat of Lamar Jackson’s legs.

The explosive battering ram that will not age ranked top 14 in yards per carry, breakaway run rate, and yards after contact per carry on the fourth most carries in the league but finished only 28th in fantasy points per opportunity due to his almost nonexistent pass game involvement. And while there have been reports that Derrick Henry will be utilized more through the air under Doyle, this is still a 32-year-old running back with almost 3,000 (!!!) professional carries on his frame. To add even more context, Henry has led the league in rush attempts in four (!!!) seasons and has missed only one game in the previous four years, all while handling 300 or more carries in three of those four seasons. The dude is just a freak of nature. And yet, again, that’s a lot of wear on his frame. If we look back on 2025, Henry did not handle 20 or more opportunities until Week 6 before doing so in nine of his final 12 games. We have no clue what to expect to begin the new season considering the coaching changes, with everything from “Henry is more or less eased into the season to protect his body for later in the year” to “Henry once again challenges for the league lead in carries” on the table. The Colts are fresh off a season in which they held opponents to the seventh fewest rush yards per game but they experienced significant turnover on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the front seven.

The sheer volume of learning required to effectively execute in a scheme as complex of Doyle’s is a tall ask of any rookie, let alone a wide receiver or tight end. The interesting thing about that statement is the fact that Ja’Kobi Lane likely enters the league as one of the more high-football-IQ receivers in the class. Conversely, I would not be surprised if Elijah Sarratt and Josh Cuevas are looking at mostly redshirt seasons in their rookie campaigns. Rashod Bateman should see his snap rate on the perimeter increase substantially following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Aging veteran tight end Mark Andrews saw the lowest snap rate of his career in 2025 but the departure of Isaiah Likely leaves a massive hole to fill at the position, and the only other tight ends on the roster are blocking specialist Durham Smythe and two rookies in Matt Hibner and Cuevas. The opportunity should be there for Andrews to regain prominence in this offense. That is, if his 31-year-old (on 6 September) body can cooperate. I expect Devontez Walker and Lane to begin the season in a loose rotation for the WR3 spot and we’re liable to see the offense utilize elevated rates of 21-personnel to generate mismatches. That leaves Zay Flowers as one of the more intriguing candidates to vault into elite company at the position in 2026. Target competition has gone down, his efficiency metrics have continually improved in each of his three seasons in the league, he sees a massive boost in offensive scheme and structure, and LJax is healthy entering the season. Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the most adaptable DCs in the league and now gets the pleasure of coaching a defense with All-Pro corners Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner, but his aggression can be susceptible to explosives at the same time. That is the thesis for Flowers in this spot, and I think it is one worth considering at what is almost assuredly going to be modest ownership.