Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

2026 football season LET’S GO! I’ve been waiting to write this article for months and here we are – the first game of the season has the Patriots visiting the Seahawks for a Super Bowl rematch. We’ve got a 44.5 total game with Seattle favored by 3.5. Both teams were elite last year (they went to the Super Bowl, duh) – Seattle 2nd in the league on offense at 29.2 points per game and with the league’s best defense allowing just 16.9 points per game (fun fact – only one other team has allowed under 17 points per game since 2019), while the Patriots were 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game and 3rd on defense, allowing 17.9 points per game. If you add up each team’s points scored per game and points allowed per game you get 45 – basically the total of this game. Feels like a bit of a lazy way to get to a game total, and personally I’d lean under, but…it’s Week 1. Remember that we know very, very little in Week 1, and early in the season is the best time to be contrarian if you have strong takes.

SEATTLE

We’ll start with Seattle, where the backfield has lost Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet is still working his way back from a torn ACL. That leaves the backfield in the hands of rookie Jadarian Price, journeyman George Holani, and offseason signee Emanuel Wilson. Price should be the lead back, but beat reporter news is whispering that Holani is going to be heavily involved. At $7,200 Price is a reasonable play – especially in builds predicated on Seattle winning, which would increase his touch projection. I think 10-12 carries is a floor for Price with upside for 14-16, but the lack of expected receiving work means he’s going to need some big yardage (tough against New England’s D) or a touchdown to matter. Holani and Wilson are just $4,200 and $4,000, respectively – I think Wilson likely doesn’t get much work (especially because he was hurt in the preseason and only returned to practice this last weekend, but Holani could easily see enough work to matter. I haven’t run ownership yet, but I do worry about Holani picking up a lot of it depending on how industry point projections shake out – but if he’s under the 15-20% range, that seems like a strong spot to take an overweight position. Overall, given Seattle’s status as a home favorite and the reasonable prices of their running backs, the odds seem good that a Seattle RB is on the winning roster if the Seahawks win the game.

In the passing game, Seattle’s offense was wildly efficient last year with QB Sam Darnold only attempting more than 34 passes twice the entire season. Part of that was of course their defense controlling game scripts, but this is, overall, a great defense and a run-first offense. One important factor that we can’t quantify is the loss of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who per our team previews the OWS team has as a top-five playcaller in the game. Newcomer Brian Fleury has literally never called an offensive play in his career – it’s entirely plausible that we could see a step back from the Seattle offense, either for all or at least the start of the season, as they adjust to the new OC. That said – we have to view Sam Darnold as legit at this point in his career and WR1 Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba is an easy top-five receiver in the league. This is a horrible matchup for the Seattle passing game against what is likely to be the league’s best secondary, but JSN is still the overall strongest skill position player in this Showdown. With salaries being loose in Week 1 (only two players at $10k+ salary), JSN is going to be incredibly owned, but it’s hard to make a case against him. After that it gets shaky. WR2 Cooper Kupp is getting old and broke 15 DK points just once all of last year. Midseason acquisition Rashid Shaheed can get there on just a couple of catches, but New England was exceptional against the deep ball last season. I would personally prefer Shaheed to Kupp, as my general preference when picking players against elite defenses is to go with players who don’t need a lot of catches to generate good scores. WR4 Tory Horton looked promising to start last season, but he’s hurt currently – we just found out a couple of days ago that it’s a hamstring injury that has been lingering since mid-August. He got in a limited practice on Sunday (I’m writing this on Monday) – if he plays he’s a viable value option at $2,800, but I think odds are he won’t play. If he doesn’t, Montorie Foster would be a very viable punt option at $200 – and I don’t think his ownership would get that out of hand given how soft salaries are. Tight end AJ Barner had a solid 2025 season – he’s not an especially explosive receiver but he did score seven touchdowns and was 2nd on the team with 18 red zone targets. He’s my favorite secondary pass catcher on the Seahawks after JSN. Finally, TE2 Elijah Arroyo made a few really nice plays last year before getting hurt – he’s not likely to play a ton of snaps, but he has good per-target upside, and if Horton misses we could potentially see more of Arroyo on the field. I would limit playing Arroyo and Foster together, as I think they cannibalize each other’s ceiling.

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The football gods smile on us with an extra island game Showdown in Week 1 as the 49ers travel to take on the Rams. This game has a nice 48.5 total with Los Angeles favored by 3.5. The 49ers are an incredibly hard team to project because of their turnover and injury situations — not just right now, but over the last couple of seasons, the team has so rarely been at full health. What we do know is the coaching staff and scheme are absolutely elite, one of the best in the league if not the best, and the offense is full of weapons — especially with George Kittle being reported as “looking good” for Week 1 just a couple of days ago. The Rams, meanwhile, were an absolute powerhouse last year, especially on the offensive end (30 points per game last year!) and there’s no real reason to expect that to change. Yeah, they’re all a year older, generally QB and WR production declines gradually with age, it doesn’t tend to fall off a cliff like RBs.

LOS ANGELES

We’ll start with the Rams at home and their backfield. Kyren Williams is the RB1 but as the season went on Los Angeles really started pulling back on his workload and splitting things more with Blake Corum. Kyren started off in a bell cow role last year, but from Week 3 onward, he only saw more than 15 carries twice. Just twice. He had a couple of big spiked-target games, but generally speaking this passing offense flows through its wide receivers and tight ends, not the running backs. Kyren had three or fewer targets in all but four games while averaging right about three per game. He’s not priced as a bell cow back at $8,600, but he has almost no shot at the 100 yard bonus (just once last year and it took 25 carries) and with a modest passing game role, you basically need a touchdown from him. He could get one, obviously — the Rams are an elite offense with a high team total — but just know that they also passed in the red zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL last year. I’m actually a little more interested in Blake Corum at his $4,600 price, because I think there’s a decent chance the workload split could shift closer to 50/50, and if that happens, he’s a major value. You still need a touchdown to find ceiling, but it’s easier to bet on that at $4,600 than it is at $8,600.

In the passing game the Rams will roll out Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as their primary guys with Jordan Whittington in the WR3 role and some combination of Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell, and Xavier Smith rotating through. Worth noting: the Rams, as per our team preview, have been at the front of the league in using heavy personnel sets with multiple tight ends on the field, which significantly reduces the appeal of their WR3 role. Whittington’s viable — but he’s more of a dart throw than a “normal” WR3 in Showdown. Puka is Puka, a no-doubt top five receiver in the league who finished as the WR1 last year in points per game. There’s literally nothing I could write about him that would be meaningful. He’s awesome, he’s expensive, he has a very good chance of showing up in optimal lineups. Adams at $9,200 looks a little overpriced to me at 34 years old — the yardage upside is mostly gone (he broke 100 yards just once last season) and last year he found ceiling via an almost comically good red zone role, both in terms of targets and efficiency, that seems like an extreme statistical outlier. He’ll have his good games, of course, and I love him as a player, but at his salary in this particular Showdown it’s really, really hard to justify clicking him when it makes it harder to pay for options like Puka, Stafford, Purdy, or CMC. I’m also extremely interested in the Rams tight end group. Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson look like the main guys, though Tyler Higbee is still lurking around and will see snaps. I’d prioritize Parkinson and Ferguson personally — they both look like really good value options down in the $3k range and I vastly prefer any of the Rams TEs to Whittington, who is also priced right around there. My conviction play for this Showdown is “a Rams tight end will be relevant,” and while it’s aggressive, I think you could make a case for including one on every roster.

BY PAPY >>

Game Overview

• The Browns have Deshaun Watson at QB, behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, throwing to a group of rookies.
• Quinson Judkins should get 20 touches, but everything else is against him.
• K.C. Conception is the best bring back option on the Browns, but he’s unlikely to post a separator game
• The Jaguars will do enough to win, but they’ve shown a willingness to slow down when holding a significant lead in the second half
• The overall game environment isn’t appealing, but the in-game factors favor Parker Washington
• Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez eat into each other’s value. Tuten always has upside because of his explosive play ability, but his big games will be hard to predict
• The Jaguars defense is going to be chalk, but it’s hard to fade a defense that checks all the boxes on a week with soft pricing

How Cleveland Will Try to Win

The Browns are back! Not back to being good. Just back. After a five-year run with Kevin Stefanski calling the shots, the Browns decided to turn over the coaching staff and are now led by Todd Monken, with Travis Switzer as the OC. This is a big promotion for Switzer (no relation to Barry). Switzer has spent his entire career as an assistant with the Ravens, most recently serving as their run game coordinator. He’s only 33 years old. There’s nothing to go on with Switzer, but new head coach Todd Monken must have thought highly of him during their time together in Baltimore. Monken’s coaching career is well documented, having most recently served as the Ravens’ OC, but this is his first time getting a shot as a head coach in the NFL. The Ravens played slow (30th in seconds per play) last season, and it would make sense to play slow with an obvious weakness at QB. Deshaun Watson was a disaster this preseason, but Monken named him the starter amid speculation he could get benched by Week 3. It doesn’t help the Browns’ O-line is expected to stink (31st ranked by PFF). The most likely game plan is going to be running the ball and winning on defense. That strategy was Cleveland’s best chance last year, but with Myles Garrett in LA, it’s unlikely that the defense will be able to carry the team.

The Jaguars’ defense was underrated last year, finishing strong (6th in total DVOA). They were equally tough against the pass (7th in DVOA), and on the ground (5th in DVOA). They only added DT Albert Regis in the draft and are largely running it back on defense. There is also a chance that Travis Hunter will be healthier, and more focused on playing CB. The Jaguars must hope they at least got a lock down CB if Hunter is going to play limited snaps at WR. There isn’t an obvious weakness for Monken to attack, and he’s going to have to find a way to win with Deshaun Watson at the helm. It makes sense based on Monken’s coaching career that he is going to try and win on the ground, while hiding Watson, but there is also some chance he treats this year like an experiment and plays aggressive. If Monken thinks he has job security beyond this season, he could let Switzer be creative with his young cast of weapons. Expect the Browns to try and win a slow paced, grind it out affair, but keep in mind there is some chance they decide to attack and see what happens.

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Emeka Egbuka suffered a turf toe injury in August and has yet to return to full practice, instead running and rehabbing to the side this past week. His status is in doubt for Week 1.
• WR Jalen McMillan (knee) has also yet to return to full practices after missing the entirety of preseason.
• Zac Robinson takes over as offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers following the firing of Josh Grizzard.
• The Buccaneers have hinted at a near-even split at running back between Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell… but, what if it’s not?
• Reports from Bengals camp this offseason seemed to indicate Zac Taylor will be looking to get Joe Burrow under center at an increased rate in 2026. That would be a massive boost to the team’s ability to effectively utilize play action passing, which has been almost nonexistent for the Bengals during Taylor’s tenure.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

Todd Bowles is a defensive-minded head coach that isn’t often going to push a game environment on his own. He is also a coach that isn’t afraid to trade blows if things fall that way during the course of a game and he has typically left offensive tendencies and identity completely to his offensive coordinator. Liam Coen ran an efficient, explosive, and varied offense that finished the 2024 season ranked fourth in scoring at 29.0 points per game. He was sandwiched by not-so-great coordinators in Dave Canales (21.2 points per game – yea, go read the Panthers write-up for more thoughts on him) and Josh Grizzard (22.4 points per game – fired, while the other two before him picked up head coaching gigs). Now comes Zac Robinson, another fake-sharp offensive mind that got by in Atlanta through elite skill position talent while working with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. From an analytical perspective, Zac Robinson is a lot like Zac Taylor in that his situational tendencies, play-action usage, route structure, and under-center rates are entirely lacking, which is a bummer considering he hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree after coaching under him with the Rams for five seasons. Two things that Robinson does extremely well are the ground game, which utilizes unique concepts, drags, pulls, and an emphasis on outside-zone, off-tackle running to great effect in today’s game and pre-snap motion, although he becomes more predictable by not also layering in play action.

Bijan Robinson saw 35 more carries behind outside zone concepts than the next closest running back a season ago (Christian McCaffrey), and 50 more than the third back in that split (Derrick Henry). Bucky Irving saw only 35 attempts behind outside zone concepts in 2025 but averaged a solid 4.97 yards per carry in that split. That was leagues better than the 3.11 yards per carry on 38 attempts of Kenneth Gainwell and 2.32 yards per carry on 25 attempts for Sean Tucker behind outside zone concepts. We don’t know how the team will choose to allocate roles to start the season given the change at offensive coordinator and addition of Gainwell, but I expect Irving to eventually see a floor of about 65 percent of the backfield rushing workload deeper into the season. The addition of Dexter Lawrence for the Bengals gives the team a legitimate nose tackle for the first time in a long while, but his effectiveness is less likely to overly influence the run game considering the extent Robinson is likely to go to open up running lanes away from the middle of the formation. It’s a solid spot on paper for “Buccaneers run game” as a whole, and the ceiling is high for Irving should he see a larger workload than we’ve been led to believe throughout the offseason.

Bowles continues to “be optimistic” about Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, but that really means nothing as it pertains to their respective chances of suiting up against the Bengals. This looks like a situation where we might not get confirmation until inactives are released 90-minutes prior to kickoff, which isn’t a death knell considering they play during the early portion of the slate. We’ll need to track their level of participation Wednesday through Friday carefully. I wouldn’t be shocked if neither is available. Even without the injury to McMillan, I thought rookie Ted Hurst would immediately push to enter the starting lineup considering his athletic profile, abilities, testing, and college production. He is the receiver on the roster most suited to play the X, with McMillan more a prototypical Z – the position that Egbuka has reportedly been focused on this offseason after moving all over the place out of necessity during his rookie campaign. As touched on above, Robinson’s pass game scheme is fairly benign and straightforward, often focused on creating one-on-one situations for his players to go and win against rather than creating the space for them, all while failing to reap the benefits of play action, timing, and fluidity. His answer is typically to use motion to help his quarterback diagnose coverage and get him out on a bootleg to clean up throwing lanes. That has typically led to elevated first-read target rates. That screams Chris Godwin in this spot, particularly against an Al Golden defense that utilized elevated rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 a season ago. That could also benefit Cade Otton, who is one of those “middle clogger” tight ends with limited after-the-catch upside, but has performed well when thrust into additional volume due to injury in the past.

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Derrick Henry has led the league in rushing four times and has missed only one game in the previous four seasons, during which time he handled 1,261 carries.
• I expect the Ravens to challenge for the league lead in explosive plays. Lamar Jackson is healthy and Declan Doyle’s offensive scheme is built to generate space for his players.
• Zay Flowers is positioned well to fully erupt into the elite ranks at wide receiver.
• After a tumultuous offseason of injury concerns, the Colts appear to be nearing full health.
• This game carries sneaky shootout potential, something I think will go largely overlooked by the field despite the fact that it carries the third highest game total.
• The signing of Keenan Allen pairs with the offseason absence of Alec Pierce to force a situation in which Josh Downs stands as the player likeliest to see his role materially grow for the Colts entering 2026.

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Lamar Jackson won an MVP with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator and won another and finished runner-up the following season with Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator. He now gets Declan Doyle, who last year became the youngest offensive coordinator in the history of the NFL with the Bears. Doyle studied under Sean Payton and Ben Johnson during his come-up and blends a power run scheme with outside-zone concepts. He balances that with extreme pre-snap motion and play action rates while mixing in under-center play to maximize the cumulative effects. I expect the Ravens to challenge for the league lead in explosive plays when you marry the scheme with the threat of Lamar Jackson’s legs.

The explosive battering ram that will not age ranked top 14 in yards per carry, breakaway run rate, and yards after contact per carry on the fourth most carries in the league but finished only 28th in fantasy points per opportunity due to his almost nonexistent pass game involvement. And while there have been reports that Derrick Henry will be utilized more through the air under Doyle, this is still a 32-year-old running back with almost 3,000 (!!!) professional carries on his frame. To add even more context, Henry has led the league in rush attempts in four (!!!) seasons and has missed only one game in the previous four years, all while handling 300 or more carries in three of those four seasons. The dude is just a freak of nature. And yet, again, that’s a lot of wear on his frame. If we look back on 2025, Henry did not handle 20 or more opportunities until Week 6 before doing so in nine of his final 12 games. We have no clue what to expect to begin the new season considering the coaching changes, with everything from “Henry is more or less eased into the season to protect his body for later in the year” to “Henry once again challenges for the league lead in carries” on the table. The Colts are fresh off a season in which they held opponents to the seventh fewest rush yards per game but they experienced significant turnover on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the front seven.

The sheer volume of learning required to effectively execute in a scheme as complex of Doyle’s is a tall ask of any rookie, let alone a wide receiver or tight end. The interesting thing about that statement is the fact that Ja’Kobi Lane likely enters the league as one of the more high-football-IQ receivers in the class. Conversely, I would not be surprised if Elijah Sarratt and Josh Cuevas are looking at mostly redshirt seasons in their rookie campaigns. Rashod Bateman should see his snap rate on the perimeter increase substantially following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Aging veteran tight end Mark Andrews saw the lowest snap rate of his career in 2025 but the departure of Isaiah Likely leaves a massive hole to fill at the position, and the only other tight ends on the roster are blocking specialist Durham Smythe and two rookies in Matt Hibner and Cuevas. The opportunity should be there for Andrews to regain prominence in this offense. That is, if his 31-year-old (on 6 September) body can cooperate. I expect Devontez Walker and Lane to begin the season in a loose rotation for the WR3 spot and we’re liable to see the offense utilize elevated rates of 21-personnel to generate mismatches. That leaves Zay Flowers as one of the more intriguing candidates to vault into elite company at the position in 2026. Target competition has gone down, his efficiency metrics have continually improved in each of his three seasons in the league, he sees a massive boost in offensive scheme and structure, and LJax is healthy entering the season. Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the most adaptable DCs in the league and now gets the pleasure of coaching a defense with All-Pro corners Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner, but his aggression can be susceptible to explosives at the same time. That is the thesis for Flowers in this spot, and I think it is one worth considering at what is almost assuredly going to be modest ownership.

BY MJOHNSON >>

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Tua Tagovailoa has been named the starting QB for the Falcons to open the 2026 season. He will have his hands full with an aggressive Steelers defensive front.
• On the surface, the Falcons offense is likely to be very condensed with their “Big 3” of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts dominating the team’s touches.
• New head coach Kevin Stefanski arrives from Cleveland and many of his scheme’s concepts and tendencies mirror what former offensive coordinator Zac Robinson brought to the table.
• Aaron Rodgers is reunited with head coach Mike McCarthy and freed from the chains of former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in what appears to (finally) be his last season.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski left the train wreck QB situation in Cleveland and appears to have walked into a new one in Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr. is still not fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered last season, so free agent acquisition Tua Tagovailoa will open the season under center for the Falcons. On the surface, Stefanski’s scheme should be a good fit with the things Tua is capable of as a quarterback. It is built around the running game, uses heavier personnel, and tries to get the ball out quickly and/or on play-action concepts. Tua’s skill set is built on anticipation and accuracy, while lacking athleticism and a big arm. The tough part is that the preseason film and the accounts from those at training camp and joint practices point to the fact that Tua has been struggling all summer and this could be a problem in a tough road environment to open the season.

All-world RB Bijan Robinson will be the focal point for the Falcons offense and Stefanski will undoubtedly be focused on feeding him the ball early and often. Atlanta let Tyler Allgeier leave in free agency, replacing him with Brian Robinson Jr. as Bijan’s backup. Over the last three seasons, Allgeier had a very clear role and was routinely a part of the game plan. This season with the new coaching staff and Allgeier gone, Bijan should be fed as much as he can handle. Expect the majority of touches/targets that don’t go to Bijan to end up with Kyle Pitts or Drake London. Stefanski’s scheme has always heavily featured the tight end position and the size and skill sets of both Pitts and London are seemingly very strong fits for the short area passing game that is likely to be featured. The biggest issue for the Falcons offense seems likely to be a lack of vertical threats placed on defenses due to the profiles of their receivers and lack of arm strength of their quarterback.

The Steelers have a dynamic and fearsome pass rush which will have Atlanta focused on getting the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly. Short area passing on in-breaking routes will be the norm with Bijan being fed touches on the ground and on swing passes in the flats. Atlanta is not going into Pittsburgh and throwing haymakers early. Instead, they will try to grind out possessions, avoid turnovers and negative plays, and hope that their playmakers can do enough with the ball in their hands to sneak out of Pittsburgh with a 1-0 record.

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• There are a lot of moving pieces here, but there is a legitimate chance that Super Josh is summoned more frequently than in previous seasons. For those not familiar with Super Josh, Josh Allen is the quarterback that most frequently has returned a tournament-winning score without bringing another skill position player with him. He is also capable of both taking over a game and putting a slate out of reach, achieving a score you quite simply could not win without.
• RB Ty Johnson missed all of preseason and most of camp with a knee/lower-body injury.
• The Bills don't appear to be moving away from the seven-to-eight-person revolving door amongst their pass catchers any time soon. So, that's fun.
• WR Nico Collins should absolutely dominate looks through the air for the Texans. Jayden Higgins saw his season ripped from him due to a torn ACL, Tank Dell will start the season on IR, and the rest of the roster is devoid of target-earners.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN::

I'm going to be honest with you all, I have had a hell of a time hammering down this Bills team this offseason. On one hand, former head coach Sean McDermott lasted as long as he did in Buffalo due to his ability to scheme through relative personnel shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball. His replacement, Jim Leonhard, had his come-up under Vance Joseph and runs an aggressive-style hybrid defense designed to get after the quarterback and disrupt drives. That can lead to two scenarios through the course of a game: (1) the pressure is able to get home and the Bills are able to continue playing a more keep-away, ball control style of offense, or (2) teams are able to maneuver around the pressure and pick up chunk gains and explosives, which could lead to Super Josh making an appearance. I suppose that exploration leads to a more opponent-dependent setup for the Bills this year, more so than we had in recent history. In other words, we spent much of the past five seasons talking about the factors that could lead to Super Josh's appearance – those factors take on a slightly different shape in 2026, one that could result in even more Super Josh than we've grown accustomed to in recent history. Finally, we saw multiple reports from camp that the Bills were focused on passing more heading into the new season.

Ty Johnson's expected absence in Week 1 might not be as big a deal for James Cook as initially thought. Johnson missed both playoff contests last season, during which it was Ray Davis that soaked up the vacated time on the field while Cook played a "normal for him" 60 and 64 percent snap rate. That said, the prevailing theory surrounding the Bills is that they will be working to get Cook more involved in the pass game after averaging just 2.3 targets per game a season ago. There becomes an interesting case to be made for finally including Cook as a potential tournament pairing with Allen after the two returned a tourney-winning score in the same week only once in the previous four seasons. The pure rushing matchup is about as difficult as they come against DeMeco Ryans' Texans defense, who are fresh off a season in which they held opponents to 92.7 yards and 3.9 yards per carry on the ground.

DJ Moore was the subject of strong debate amongst the Best Ball crowd this offseason. He was an extremely enigmatic and polarizing player, with both sides of the discussion adamant the other side was wrong (as is so often the case, people tend to want to prove others wrong). And then the preseason happened and the Bills appeared content to continue a four-to-five receiver and two-to-three tight end rotation, which is something we are all intimately familiar with. Bringing that back to the offseason discourse regarding Moore likely leaves the discussion somewhere in the middle in that Moore appears unlikely to see more than 70-75 percent of the weekly snaps but he stands as the clear top option through the air. In other words, I don't expect a massive snap share or route participation from Moore but he is highly likely to lead the team in underlying metrics like TPRR. As such, there is no reason to treat him any different than we have any other pass catcher from the Bills since the departure of Stefon Diggs. From a fantasy standpoint, that effectively leaves us in the same position as we have been with Buffalo pass catchers, and we can cite the historic trends to make our weekly decisions. Allen is the quarterback that most frequently "does it by himself," with his blowup spots typically coming through placing the team on his back. How the targets shake out behind Moore this season is anyone's guess, with tight end Dalton Kincaid the most likely to finish second on the team in receiving despite notching only nine career games with a snap rate north of 55 percent during his three-year professional career. Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, James Palmer, rookie Skyler Bell, and tight end Dawson Knox will be involved in some capacity but there is currently no telling how they will be utilized.

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Bears HC Ben Johnson stated in August that he wants to have “the highest-scoring offense ever.” That, friends, is 37.9 points per game. Yummy.
• RB Kyle Monangai is dealing with a hyperextended knee and was immediately labeled week-to-week by Johnson. He was seen running to the side of practice Thursday (3 September) but his status remains up in the air for Week 1.
• RB D’Andre Swift appears to have avoided a significant injury after leaving practice Thursday (3 September), which was clarified as being removed for cramps.
• WR Luther Burden is expected to be full-go in Week 1 after missing time in camp with a groin injury.
• RB Chuba Hubbard is dealing with a hamstring issue but returned to practice on 1 September while RB Jonathon Brooks is reportedly dealing with “soreness.” It has not yet been made public whether that “soreness” involves his surgically-repaired knee.

HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Bears saw former offensive coordinator Declan Doyle depart to fill the same position with the Ravens, where he’ll be able to call offensive plays for the first time in his young career. They replaced him with Press Taylor, although it will be head coach Ben Johnson that retains play calling duties. Beyond that, much of the roster in Chicago remains the same, as does their preferred method of winning games. Their defense improved slightly on paper after ranking 23rd in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed per game, getting by last season by leading the league in turnover differential and ranking third in total takeaways. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen calls an aggressive defense that ranked in the top 10 in both man coverage rate and blitz rate a season ago, which helps to describe the increased forced turnover rate in addition to the additional yardage they have shown to cede. And while that style of defense can shut down opponents every now and then, this team is likely to give up yards and if they’re not generating turnovers, the points against are likely to follow. That can lead to some absolute blowup game environments considering the aggressive nature of Johnson’s defense. Johnson also made an interesting statement in August, saying “I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos. I know how many points per game they scored (37.9) and want to surpass them. I want shutouts. I want blowouts.” I think that accurately describes his mentality moving forward, and we should plan accordingly early in the season. Beyond that, Johnson seemingly perfectly balances situational decision making with under center quarterback play, heavy pre-snap motion, play action passing, layered route structure, and upside routes like downfield crossers and posts.

One of the interesting aspects about the inner workings of Johnson’s offense is its low pass rate over expectation values. What those simplified numbers fail to fully capture are his situational tendencies. Johnson’s offense routinely ranks towards the top of the league in early-down pass rates, second-and-short pass rates, and deep throw rate on early downs. Statistically speaking, these are some of the highest upside-generating situations currently in the league, and Johnson takes full advantage. Those tendencies also help to keep opposing defenses off balance on the ground, routinely able to take advantage of plus numbers in the box. D’Andre Swift finished the 2025 season ranked 15th in DK points per game on just 61.3 percent of the team’s running back opportunities and a modest 44.4 percent route participation rate. Swift did not see a snap rate over 62 percent after the team’s Week 5 bye. All of that is of particular intrigue should Kyle Monangai miss Week 1 with his hyperextended knee. Should that happen, expect Roschon Johnson to step into the No. 2 role, with the potential for Swift to see a bump in snap rate, opportunities, and, most importantly, red zone role. He would immediately become one of my favorite point-per-dollar running back plays on the slate if Monangai is unable to go. The Panthers almost completely revamped their linebacker corps this offseason after allowing 4.4 yards per carry, 122.9 rush yards per game, and the ninth most DK points per game to the position a season ago. Consider it a neutral-to-positive matchup on paper.

The Chicago passing corps lays legitimate claim to one of the top groups in the league. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland compliment each other on the field perfectly, while Kalif Raymond is quietly one of the better WR3s in the league, a position that is oftentimes overlooked in the salary department due to cap limitations. All the things discussed earlier regarding the structure of this offense place consistent stresses on opposing defenses through the air, where any one of these four pass catchers can gash exposed units for explosive plays. The fact that this unit is so deep is somewhat of a double-edged sword in that concentration is difficult to nail down. What we know is that Loveland is one of the better mismatches in the league over the middle of the field, Johnson has continued to sing high praise for Burden and Odunze, and Raymond is capable in a deep role. We can also expect the Panthers to continue utilizing heavy rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3, against which Loveland and Burden handily led the team in 2025 (0.295 TPRR and 2.69 YPRR for Loveland and 0.269 TPRR and 2.78 YPRR for Burden).

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Lowest game total on the slate (by a wide margin), with the Titans currently favored by 1.5-points due to home field advantage (this seems off, to me).
• Jets RB Breece Hall appears fine after sustaining a groin injury a little over two weeks ago (as of Thursday, September 3) and should not be limited in any way in Week 1.
• Geno Smith returns to where his career began, signing a one-year, ‘bridge’ contract valued at just $3.3 million to quarterback the Jets in 2026.
• The Titans looked absolutely dreadful on both sides of the ball during the preseason and could take some time to get going considering the offseason coaching changes and youth.
• Titans rookie WR Carnell Tate has missed practice time on two separate occasions this offseason, with what Saleh describes as “stiffness.” That, combined with the offseason addition of Wan’Dale Robinson, has me well below consensus on Tate entering his rookie season.
• The Jets should not be counted on to push game environments this season but they should be much more efficient after hiring Frank Reich as offensive coordinator.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Jets invested the bulk of their time and effort into the defensive side of the ball this offseason, entering the 2026 season with six new projected starters on that side of the ball. They used one of their three first round picks on linebacker David Bailey (the other two on wide receiver Omar Cooper and tight end Kenyon Sadiq). Those moves make sense when taken in context with defensive-minded returning head coach Aaron Glenn. Which is to say, the identity of this team should remain on the defensive side of the ball. Frank Reich was brought in to revitalize the offense after the team ranked 29th in points per game (17.6) and total offense (263.6 yards per game), representing one of the bigger scheme shifts in the league. What all that means to us is that we shouldn’t expect the Jets to be pushing game environments, but we should expect them to be more efficient with the ball. In other words, one-offs and concentrated team stacks are likely to be more beneficial to us in GPP play as compared to game environment bets with these Jets this year.

Geno Smith’s career 17.8 percent running back target rate – ninth highest, of active quarterbacks – combines with a couple factors to make this an appealing spot for Jets’ running back Breece Hall, who was recently labeled as a “workhorse” by offensive coordinator Frank Reich. First, some stipulations there. Reich also indicated a willingness to get Braelon Allen into the game in short yardage situations, most notable of which is on the goal line. But almost every back in Week 1 other than Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor carries significant uncertainties as we begin the new season, and even then, both Gibbs and Robinson have new offensive coordinators/play callers. Back to the good stuff. Running backs saw a massive 133 percent boost in target rate against zone coverages in 2025, as compared to man, which is one of the more nuanced data points I uncovered in my preparation for the season. New Titans head coach Robert Saleh will be calling the defense in Tennessee. Saleh has always utilized zone at elevated rates, which jumped to a massive 75.5 percent rate in 2025 while serving as the defensive coordinator of the 49ers, per statrankings.com’s Coverage IQ tool. Furthermore, everyone just saw Seattle’s second string offense absolutely demolish the first teamers from Tennessee to end the preseason. One of the aspects of Saleh’s defense that is so effective is its complexity, something that can take time to install to its greatest effect. Despite the rather underwhelming production from the New York offense a season ago, Hall managed the 10th highest breakaway run rate to accompany the 12th most explosive runs. Mark this one down as one of the sneakier running back spots on the Week 1 main slate.

Adonai Mitchell appears to have the starting perimeter spot opposite Garrett Wilson locked down entering the new season. The team looks to be easing rookie Omar Cooper in, which is likeliest due to poor camp performance, meaning I wouldn’t expect a massive snap rate for the No. 30 overall pick to start the season. It will be interesting to see how the team handles its tight end situation after spending the No. 16 overall pick on Kenyon Sadiq after taking Jordan Mason in the second round last year. I eventually expect Sadiq to operate as the primary pass catcher given his elite athletic traits, but that could take time to fully materialize. Considering that exploration into where this team’s primary pass catchers currently stand, I wouldn’t be shocked if Wilson continues to see an elite target share for the first six-to-eight weeks as the rookies get their feet under them. Even then, Wilson has only nine 100-yard games and five games of 25+ DK points through his first 58 professional appearances. The list of Wilson’s offensive play callers since his rookie season consists of Mike LaFleur (good), Nathaniel Hackett (horrible), and Tanner Engstrand (poor), meaning his weekly floor should remain elite given the shift to Reich. It is just difficult for me to view Wilson as a serious ceiling threat given his history. Historic trends yield 2.6 “ceiling games” in 2026, making Wilson a player I will likely be well underweight on in 2026 DFS contests. With all of that out of the way, this appears to be a sparkling spot on paper against a secondary with two new starting corners in Alontae Taylor, who graded as a bottom three corner in 2025 while with the Saints, and Cor’Dale Flott, who had his first above average season in coverage last year with the Giants.

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Saints kept as many running backs as wide receivers (four) on the initial 53-man roster.
• RB Alvin Kamara suffered a Grade-2 MCL sprain on 18 August and is expected to miss Week 1.
• Lions traded RB David Montgomery to the Texans in exchange for OL Juice Scruggs and multiple picks. They also drafted OT Blake Miller in the first round.
• RB Isiah Pacheco was sent to IR with a bank injury, after which time the team said they “hope to have him back this season.” Yikes.
• This has all the feel of an “Amon-Ra and Gibbs spot” on paper – more on that below.
• WR Jordyn Tyson begins the season on IR.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Lightning McQueen, sorry, Kellen Moore, returns as the head coach and offensive play caller for the Saints after leading the league in PROE+ a season ago, a stat used to measure both pass rate over expectation and pace of play to get a more accurate depiction of situations most beneficial to play volume. That said, those tendencies are more a boon to the overall game environment than they are to the success of his offense. Per statrankings.com, Moore’s lowly 18.3 percent play action rate in 2025 ranked 28th in the league while holding an EPA/play better than only the Raiders, Browns, Titans, Jets, and Vikings, all of whom had clear limitations throughout the season. Low under-center play heavily influenced the ability to utilize play action effectively, and the team now has no clear downfield threat to expose the middle of the field. I’m very interested to see how Moore’s offense looks in the new season considering the relative lack of viable threats on the field. The Saints also ranked just 23rd in total offense a season ago all while averaging the 10th most offensive plays per game.

The team had needs up and down the roster and the biggest splash they made in free agency was the signing of running back Travis Etienne, who is now the proud custodian of the sixth richest running back contract in the league, in total value. The New Orleans offensive line looks strong on paper after adding guard David Edwards. Left tackle Kelvin Banks graded as the league’s top rookie lineman in 2025 and right guard Cesar Ruiz continues to play at a high level, leaving the biggest unknown in the hands of right tackle Taliese Fuaga. Even then, he is of first-round pedigree and is entering his third professional season so there is reason to be bullish on this unit. The matchup is middling on paper against a Lions defense that held running backs to the seventh fewest fantasy points per game but allowed 4.4 yards per carry, 0.9 rushing scores per game, and 114.6 rush yards per game. With Kamara expected to miss, only Kendre Miller and Audric Estime sit behind Etienne on the active roster, meaning the newly-paid lead back should see significant run in his first game on a new team.

Similar to Nico Collins in Houston, Chris Olave suddenly finds himself set up for immense weekly volume due to injury, this time to rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson. That said, Devaughn Vele served as an every-down starter for only four games for the Saints in 2025, during which time he ran the same number of routes as Chris Olave (131), saw an 88.8 percent snap rate (would be top-10 over a full season), and caught 15 balls to the 21 of Olave. Olave is still the dude through the air for the Saints, but it is an interesting comparison, nonetheless, particular due to Vele’s basement salary in Week 1. The fact that the team kept only four receivers through roster cuts implies one of two things. Either Bryce Lance is going to get significant run or the team intends on calling up one of the four receivers they have on the practice squad. Either way, expect the bulk of the damage through the air to flow through Olave, Vele, and tight end Juwan Johnson, likely in that order. I expect a receiver to take the game-day roster spot of Kamara (or Zach Wilson, who looks to be the emergency quarterback on the roster), but it really matters not for our purposes. Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard runs an aggressive unit with above average rates of man, single-high, and blitzes, all of which add to Olave’s ceiling here.

BY MJOHNSON >>

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Heralded rookie RB Jeremiyah Love is trending towards being available for the Cardinals in Week 1 after missing most of August with an ankle injury.
• Arizona operated as one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league the second half of last season, but looks to become more balanced under new head coach Mike LaFleur.
• Explosive Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell is back on the practice field ahead of the season opener after missing nearly two weeks of practice.
• The Chargers offense has looked explosive in the preseason and is expected to take a major leap under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, while Arizona’s defense was arguably the worst in the league in 2025.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN::

Arizona has one of the stronger offensive personnel units in the league in 2026 after drafting the uber-talented RB Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. Love joins an offense with tight end Trey McBride, who set the single season record for receptions by a tight end last year, and two very good receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. The biggest concerns for Arizona’s offense this season will be their offensive line and quarterback play. Arizona struggled up front last season and things should be slightly better, but there is a long way to go before this is a top-tier unit. Likewise, the counting stats for Jacoby Brissett last season were terrific but those were primarily driven by volume and game script, rather than efficiency.

Expect the Cardinals to be a much more balanced unit this season than what we saw down the stretch in 2025. Not only did they draft Love, but they signed Tyler Allgeier in free agency and he is expected to see meaningful usage as well. After a hodge podge of mediocre backs saw time for Arizona last season, their backfield talent takes a major step forward. Their defense last season was also horrific, and while they don’t project to be great this year we also shouldn’t expect them to immediately be losing by two to three scores and dropping back 50 times a game. These two factors combine to create a situation where we expect Arizona to spread things out among their personnel, play slower, and throw less than the fantasy circus they provided in 2025. Love suffered an ankle injury in the first preseason game (a game where he touched the ball a head scratching 14 times), but is now expected to be back for Week 1. Expect a pretty even split between Love and Allgeier in terms of carries, while the passing game is likely to be centered around McBride with Love, Wilson, and MHJ rotating who is the second and third option on a weekly basis.

This week’s matchup against the Chargers will be an interesting one to watch the usage of MHJ and Wilson. Last season we saw Wilson emerge as a dominant player while MHJ was out, then take a backseat when MHJ briefly returned towards the end of the season. Wilson was rewarded last month with a big contract extension, but the draft capital and pedigree of MHJ along with a new coaching staff puts a lot of questions on the situation. That is just part of the issue as they also have to try to earn targets in an offense that has McBride and Love soaking up attention. My read on the situation is Wilson will be a more consistent target earner, while MHJ will have some spike weeks downfield. Either way, I do trust LaFleur to find a way to get everyone involved it just may take some time.

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Miami enters 2026 headed in an entirely new direction with a new coaching staff, new starting quarterback, and arguably the least proven skill group in the league.
• Dolphins QB Malik Willis had his career revitalized in Green Bay the last couple of seasons and looks to prove himself worthy of the $67.5 million contract he signed with Miami in March.
• Klint Kubiak makes his debut as an NFL head coach for the Raiders after leading the offense for the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last season.
• Raiders star RB Ashton Jeanty returned to practice on Wednesday and is expected to be available for the season opener.
• Las Vegas was the least explosive offense in the league in 2025 and Kubiak brings one of the most explosive schemes in the league to town – they kick off Week 1 against a Miami defense that projects to be one of the league’s worst.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Dolphins will have a new look and identity in 2026 as they parted ways with Mike McDaniel and brought in a new head coach (Jeff Hafley) and offensive coordinator (Bobby Slowik). Hafley has a defensive background, which leaves Slowik calling the shots as he did during his time in Houston as the offensive coordinator for Demeco Ryans. Prior to that time in Houston, Slowik’s background was with the 49ers where he worked under Kyle Shanahan and Slowik was on staff last season with Mike McDaniel. This creates a situation where Slowik’s concepts and terminology may be an easier adjustment for returning players thanks to the fact that him and McDaniel are both products of the Shanahan coaching tree. Also a part of that coaching tree is Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, who turned around the career of quarterback Malik Willis during his two seasons in Green Bay. Willis signed a three-year contract with Miami this March worth $67.5 million and enters Week 1 as a starting quarterback for the first time in his career. The Dolphins are hopeful that the similarity of systems will make for a seamless transition for Willis, who was terrific in his appearances for the Packers the last two seasons. Willis had a passer rating of 134.6 during those two seasons, when he averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt and threw six touchdowns with no interceptions. Those stats are in addition to solid contributions with his legs, making Willis a legitimate dual threat QB.

The biggest problem for Willis will be the big change in offensive environment. He is no longer within the structure of the Packers offense with one of the more respected offensive minds in the league calling the shots. Instead he has Slowik, whose time in Houston was very underwhelming, and a Dolphins skill group that is very underwhelming. Star RB De’Von Achane is the obvious engine of the offense, but it drops off significantly after that. Expect Achane to be fed touches in all areas of the field and his skill set to be featured. The wide receiver group is likely to feature third year WR Malik Washington as the slot receiver and likely leader in targets behind Achane, with rookie Caleb Douglas occupying the “X” receiver role on the perimeter and veteran Jalen Tolbert and rookie Chris Bell rotating at the “Z” position. Bell was a first round talent who tore his ACL last November, which caused his draft stock to fall. He was recently cleared, but the team is going to ease him into things. At tight end, Greg Dulcich is expected to be the team’s top option but he has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career.

Assuming the Dolphins build their offense around their best player (Achane) and QB (Willis), we can make some assertions about what this will look like. Obviously Achane is a versatile player and can be used in a variety of ways, with his speed being his greatest asset which means creating space and/or getting him on the perimeter are the priorities. Willis presents a running threat himself, so look for the Dolphins to leverage those two off of each other to create running lanes. When Miami does throw the ball, Willis has historically been very aggressive. Last season his checkdown rate of 8.3% (per statrankings.com) was among the lowest in the league, while his deep throw rate of 22.9% was by far the highest in the league. For comparison’s sake, Matthew Stafford led the NFL at only 15.2%. Of course, Willis had a small sample size, but the fact of the matter is that Willis has shown himself to be a very aggressive and capable downfield passer. Las Vegas has a retooled defense and a new scheme, which will be on display for the first time in Week 1. They are built to be a fast unit and are moving to a 3-4 scheme which will be tested immediately by the speed of Achane and Willis.

BY MJOHNSON >>

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Reports out of Washington this summer point to them potentially having one of the league’s worst offensive lines in 2026.
• Commanders QB Jayden Daniels looks to bounce back from his disappointing and injury plagued sophomore season with some new weapons and a new scheme.
• Washington’s best path to moving the ball will likely involve using the mobility of Daniels and a passing attack that gets the ball out quickly and underneath.
• Philadelphia will debut their new look offense with more advanced schemes and concepts as they try to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season.
• The Commanders defense was 27th in points allowed, last in yards allowed and 31st in takeaways last season. They changed coordinators and will have at least five new starters this season.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Commanders offensive structure will look very different in 2026 than what we saw from them the last two seasons after they jettisoned former OC Kliff Kingsbury. The Washington offense led the NFL in no-huddle rate by a massive margin – per statrankings.com, the Commanders were no-huddle on 61.4% of their plays and the second place team was the Saints at 22.7%. This season, new offensive coordinator David Blough said he expects the team to be around 20 to 30% no-huddle. Likewise, the Commanders ran the fewest snaps from under center in the NFL last season by a wide margin and instead operated almost exclusively from the shotgun. That is also likely to change in their new scheme. The other major changes are in their personnel, with TE Chig Okonkwo and WR Stefon Diggs joining the group and ostensibly “replacing” TE Zach Ertz and WR Deebo Samuel, Sr. The ironic thing there is that from a playing style standpoint, Okonkwo feels like more of a Deebo replacement while Diggs at this point of his career does more of the things Ertz provided for Daniels. Okonkwo provides the athleticism and after catch ability that the Commanders were hoping to get from Deebo, while Diggs has the savvy, hands, and route running ability to be a consistent separator in the short area of the field for easy completions for Daniels.

Looking at this week’s matchup, the Commanders are likely to need to rely heavily on both Okonkwo and Diggs to move the football. The Commanders offensive line was poor last season and will be without star tackle Laremy Tunsil for the season after he tore his triceps in August. This leaves their line as potentially one of the worst in the league and reports from joint practices in August suggested as much. That will be a problem against an elite Eagles defensive front. The Commanders are likely to struggle running the ball against the size and talent of Philadelphia, while the Eagles are also likely to be able to generate pressure without blitzing much. The Commanders WR1 is still Terry McLaurin, whose matchup on the perimeter is not great by any means. He has succeeded in this matchup before, but the poor line play will make it difficult for him to get open before Daniels has to take off or get the ball out.

Jayden Daniels has had some big games against the Eagles defense, but Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is no slouch and the discrepancy up front between the Commanders offensive line and the Eagles front seven is going to put a ton of pressure on Daniels. The Commanders will rely on Daniels to make plays and likely shift their passing game towards Okonkwo, Diggs, and RB Rachaad White – who is expected to split work very evenly with Jacory Croskey-Merritt this season, but whose skill set seems to fit this matchup better due to JCM’s lack of pass catching chops.

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Packers offensive personnel usage will likely look very different this season than it has in recent years, with a running back committee and more defined roles among the wide receivers.
• Star tight end Tucker Kraft is set to return from last season’s torn ACL for the season opener. Kraft was the TE1 through Week 8 of the 2025 season when he suffered the injury.
• Green Bay’s offensive line has major question marks entering the 2026 season and their defense will likely struggle out of the gates until star DE Micah Parsons returns to the field.
• The Vikings turn to former #1 overall pick Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback as they officially moved on from the JJ McCarthy era. Murray will likely be operating in the best offensive environment of his career.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Packers offense is in a materially different spot entering 2026 than anything we have seen in recent years. They have leaned heavily on RB Josh Jacobs since acquiring him, but will be without his services for the foreseeable future as he is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List while off-field situations are investigated. This leaves the Packers with an uncertain backfield situation featuring explosive, but oft-injured, third year back Marshawn Lloyd, pass blocking specialist Chris Brooks, and the recently acquired Kaleb Johnson – a decorated collegiate rusher at Iowa who flamed out quickly in Pittsburgh and has basically zero pass catching prowess. After building their offense around their bell cow the last couple of seasons, the Packers are now in a situation that offensive coordinator Alex Stenavich recently described as a three-man committee. The profiles of the players have very obvious roles if this holds true, with Brooks playing obvious passing downs, Johnson eating up a lot of the “empty” carries, and Lloyd probably playing around half the snaps but having the most designed for him.

Things in the passing game are the exact opposite of the aforementioned backfield situation. After years of a frustrating wide receiver “committee” that often saw five or even six receivers rotating throughout a game, Green Bay appears to have finally narrowed things down and has a very clear top three with specific roles. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden will be the two primary receivers, playing nearly every snap. Watson will operate as the “Z” and move around the formation as a chess piece and Golden will be filling the “X” role that Romeo Doubs vacated. Golden should provide an increase in explosiveness and a greater downfield threat than Doubs, but will need to improve his consistency and hands. Golden did have his best game of his rookie season in Green Bay’s playoff loss in Chicago and caught a bomb from Jordan Love in the preseason, so there is reason for optimism. Jayden Reed will be the clear third receiver and resume his slot role with fewer snaps and routes than Golden and Watson, but the role is likely to be more steady in terms of targets and production this season as Green Bay will likely play more 3-WR personnel. Part of that will be because of the backfield situation and part of it will be that Green Bay will likely try to ease TE Tucker Kraft back into things early in the season.

This matchup for the Packers offense is an interesting one as they face a highly aggressive and blitz heavy defensive scheme that was elite again in 2025 when the Vikings offense wasted what could have been a dominant season from their defense. Per statrankings.com, the Vikings led the NFL with a 54% blitz rate in 2025 – the next closest was the Chiefs at 40.8%. The Vikings gave up more rushing yards than usual last season as teams were able to grind them out due to their offensive struggles, but on a per-play basis they are still very good in that regard. This is the worst Packers offensive line in several years, so this is going to be quite the test in Week 1 as they are likely to struggle running the ball and also have to handle a dynamic and chaotic blitz scheme. What that leaves for Green Bay’s greatest chance of moving the ball is spreading things out and getting the ball out quickly to neutralize the pass rush. It also stands to reason that in this matchup we could see Brooks playing a high snap rate to aid in blocking and picking up the blitzes. Reed and Kraft stand to benefit the most from the nature of this matchup because of where they operate and the focus on getting the ball out quickly. The Packers will scheme the ball to Watson regularly as he is an integral part of what they are doing, while Golden will likely have one or two deep shots dialed up at the right times. We always need to look at Week 1 in terms of “range of outcomes” because we don’t know for sure how teams will play. However, all of the tea leaves in this game are pointing in a very specific direction as the Packers personnel and their defensive matchup are likely to push them into a pass-heavy approach and potentially playing at a more brisk pace than previous Matt LaFleur offenses.

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night has the Cowboys visiting New York to take on the Giants in a 48 point total game in which the Cowboys are favored by three. The Giants will look different than they did most of last year with Cam Skattebo back, Jaxson Dart firmly installed at QB, and Malik Nabers….is a giant question mark. Nabers will be returning from an ACL tear at some point, but it’s a question mark as to when. He got in full practices this week which would normally make me think he’s playing, but there have been whispers about the team doctors still having other items of concern, and both coach Harbaugh and Nabers himself have been not exactly forthcoming. He’s being projected in around the industry, so I’ll be assuming he plays for now, but covering how I think things play out if he misses. We may know Sunday morning if we get a Schefter tweet, but otherwise, we probably won’t know for sure until 90 minutes before kickoff.

NEW YORK

We’ll start with the Giants and their backfield. Cam Skattebo is back and will be the lead back, with some combination of Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary backing him up. He’ll be facing a Cowboys defense that allowed 30.1 points per game last season, most in the NFL, but that absolutely shut down opposing run games after trading for Quinnen Williams in the middle of the season. It’s an awful matchup and Skattebo is just returning from a season-ending injury, which could result in efficiency issues and/or workload restrictions. I’m kind of down on Skattebo here, but RB1s in Showdown always belong in player pools…I wouldn’t remove him entirely, but for me it’s an underweight position. The RB2 position is guess work as the Giants have currently listed all of Harris, Tracy, and Singletary as RB2s. Thanks, Giants. I’d guess Harris is the RB2, but I could be wrong. Take a guess. Good luck.

In the passing game, Nabers is a massive wildcard. Does he play? If he plays, is he a full go or is he on a snap count? We’ll have to see if we get news, but for now this is a tough spot to project. If Nabers plays, he’s a high-risk, high-reward play – he’s too cheap for his talent at full health, so he’s worth exposure, there’s every possibility he just doesn’t play enough. Malachi Fields won the WR2 job and will play regardless and then some combination of Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham, and Braxton Berrios will fill in….these guys are all dart throws if Nabers plays, but if Nabers misses, it’s Mooney or Beckham who make the most sense to fill in for him, not so much Berrios. Any of them would be playable, but I’d have more faith in Mooney, who at least played in the NFL last year, than Beckham. Fields at $5k would likely become extremely popular. And then we come to tight end, where Isaiah Likely followed coach John Harbaugh from Baltimore – Likely is, overall, my favorite skill position player on the Giants. He might go overlooked if Nabers plays, but if Nabers sits he’s going to be popular – and I’m ok with that. On an extremely lackluster receiving corps, facing a pass funnel defense, and with a coach who knows him and whose offenses heavily featured tight ends, I think Likely leads the team in targets.

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 closes out with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs for a 43.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 2.5. The big news is Patrick Mahomes should be back for Kansas City after getting in full practices – though coming back from ACL and LCL tears is likely to limit his mobility, at least for the first part of the season, which could be rough against Denver’s elite defense. Both teams have strong defense, Denver QB Bo Nix is also coming back from an injury…this game feels like a very clear under spot.

KANSAS CITY

In the run game, the Chiefs brought in Kenneth Walker from Seattle, presumably to give him a big role – Kansas City has for years avoided bell cow running backs, but I have to think that they wouldn’t bring in Walker to treat him as just another rotational guy like they’ve been using for the last few years. Walker’s more of a pure runner than a pass catcher, though he did have a couple of four-catch games last year and the Chiefs have historically utilized their running backs through the air, so I do think there’s at least some possibility that Walker’s passing game role is bigger in Kansas City than it was in Seattle. The challenge is that he’s $10.6k on a slate when nobody else even breaches $10k – and while salary is kind of loose on this slate, that’s still a lot. Walker’s a low floor but high ceiling play – he could easily get boxed up and finish with something like 15 carries for 60 yards and one catch, but he also has 100+ yards and multiple scores within his range of outcomes. RB2 Emmett Johnson was a very good pass catcher in college – it’s unclear how the Chiefs will use him. He’s playable, obviously, because it’s at least possible he steps into an early third down back role, but I’m more interested in just seeing the usage in Week 1 to learn what we can expect later in the season.

In the passing game, WR1 Rashee Rice was literally rehabbing an injury while in jail this summer. And, the Broncos have historically bottled him up. It’s hard to have much faith in the Chiefs passing game here with Mahomes likely not as mobile as he was previously, in a nightmare matchup, and with their WR1 fresh out of jail. Rice extremely good, so there’s upside, but also a huge amount of risk in his profile. WR2 Xavier Worthy is likely to get erased by Denver’s top cornerback Pat Surtain, leaving him borderline unplayable for me (Worthy’s target has also fallen off a cliff, historically, when Rice is on the field). Rotational WRs Tyquan Thornton and Cyrus Allen are playable as tourney dart throws – Thornton’s ridiculous ADOT means he can get there on a single catch, while Allen generated a lot of camp hype and is currently not being projected well anywhere in the industry – he’s risky as a rookie in his first game, but, if nobody plays him and he ends up in a bigger role than expected, I think he’s more than just a pure punt option. Finally, Travis Kelce is old and his metrics have been declining for years, but this is somewhat quietly an extremely good matchup for him against a Broncos D that crushes perimeter wide receivers and filters targets to the middle of the field. At a career-low Showdown salary of just $7,000, Kelce feels a lot more playable here than he did for most of last year – plus we should be playing older guys earlier in the season when they’re fresh.