Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
“You’re going to need to score a lot of points to win this week.”
A direct quote this week from our founder JMtoWin in his Discord channel, JMs Journal. There’s nothing complicated about this statement, and maybe it doesn’t ring true. But, I couldn’t agree with him more.
Week 1 is unpredictable, unsteady, and unconscious at times because we truly don’t know what will happen. Week 1 is when you get the second and third-year players who show signs of a breakout coming. It’s when you get the rookies bursting onto the scene (I remember Cam Newton’s 2011 debut against Arizona very well and how about Marquise Brown in 2019?). Week 1 is when you get new faces in new places making an impact (Randy Moss in New England in 2008). It’s when we get some old heads starting to show inevitable decline. It’s when we are greeted by the ugly truth of injuries happening, and at times those leading to roster-winning plays (Elijah Mitchell winning tournaments in 2021 with Raheem Mostert’s injury). To put it simply: Week 1 is the best.
And in Week 1 of an NFL season, the path to success is to find the hidden paths to upside, and ditch the conventional thinking. To read the proverbial room and think ‘you know what? I don’t agree with that.’ Week 1 is when we can be one week early and it becomes normalized a few weeks later (think David Johnson in his first few seasons in 2015 and 2016). If you see a trend developing in training camps and the offseason, and it seems the sites, touts, and analysts are either late picking it up or not leaning in enough, then there is your opportunity.
So, to justify JM’s quote from earlier this week, there will be points this week. We will need to search for ceiling this week. We also should use our own thinking to see the paths available, and not worry about our opponent’s lineups on this slate. Why? Because in Week 1, of all the weeks, we have the same limited information as our competition does in building lineups. You ARE going to need a lot of points to win this week. You CAN find those points in just about every game on the slate. And if/when you do find these paths to upside (keep reading for mine!), lean in with all you’ve got because building lineups this week is perhaps the most fun exercise this season.
If you’re new here, Willing to Lose is all about finding the high upside, low likelihood plays (strategies, blocks, players) that can catapult your lineups to the top of the leaderboards. Scroll back up for the best plays on the slate and more, but come here for inspiration throughout the season, and we’ll see what we can uncover in the weeks and months to come!
