GAME Overview ::
BY hilow >>
- Raiders brought back WR Amari Cooper on a one-year, $4 million contract, drafted RB Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft, spent second- and fourth-round picks on wide receivers, and made numerous splashy free-agent signings on the defensive side of the ball.
- This Las Vegas team is going to look much different than last season. GM John Spytek had a busy offseason – some moves I love and others made me scratch my head.
- Patriots brought back Mike Vrabel as head coach and Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator.
- They were also extremely busy this offseason, with four new offensive linemen, a slew of defensive additions, the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, and the addition of RB TreVeyon Henderson in the second round.
- Both of these teams have a lot of changes entering the new year.
- This game has very few paths to offensive eruption, with each team likeliest to want to control the game via long, sustained drives.
HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Raiders “boast” a middling-to-poor offensive line that is likely to be an issue this season, wasted a second-round pick on a wide receiver that got beat out by a fourth-rounder only to then sign Cooper, drafted a quarterback in the sixth and then traded for Kenny Pickett, and made significant coaching changes by adding head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. The Raiders did a lot of work to improve their roster this season, but some of the personnel moves they’ve made make zero sense. Bringing in Carroll and Kelly scream a high-volume rushing attack with an uptempo backbone. Their defense, combined with who Carroll is as a coach, should keep them in games this season. But man, that offensive line is going to be an issue, particularly on the ground. Kelly’s offense is utilizes zone-based run concepts, pre-snap motion, pace, and run-pass options designed to remain unpredictable and generate space by elongating the opposing defense in the horizontal plane. I would also expect to see zone-read options. This is an interesting team for the coming season in a division that has recently been dominated by the Chiefs.
I think it is fair to expect Jeanty to operate as a true workhorse in his rookie season, similar to how we saw Saquon Barkley come in and immediately be that dude. Sure, they brought in Raheem Mostert, but forgive me for not being worried about a 33-year-old running back with two career seasons over 137 carries. The volume for Jeanty should be there on a weekly basis, and it’s all about how Kelly maximizes his talents to overcome a pedestrian line. Situational play-calling tendencies will go a long way in deciding the type of season Jeanty experiences. The Patriots were a middling run defense in 2024, ranking between 14th and 18th in most meaningful metrics against the run, something that I expect to improve under Vrabel and Terrell Williams.
Kelly is also known for varying personnel groupings. There were numerous offseason reports indicating the team wanted to get third-year tight end Michael Mayer more involved, which I expect them to make good on through increased rates of 12-personnel. It remains a mystery where those snaps will likeliest come from, but I wouldn’t expect them to come from Jakobi Meyers, regardless of his offseason trade request. Meyers is largely viewed as a slot-only player but ran only 30.5% of his routes from the slot a season ago. Especially to begin the season, I think it’s much likelier those snaps and routes come at the expense of rookie Dont’e Thornton and Cooper. The cornerback duo of Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez is one of the better coverage duos in the league and the Patriots once again have a killer linebacker unit, meaning I expect most of the damage done through the air to be of the quick-hitting variety for the Raiders. Second-year tight end Brock Bowers obviously carries immense ceiling each time he takes the field, but it’s a relatively poor matchup on paper against anyone but rookie safety Craig Woodson.
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