NFC SOUTH

Written by :: Mike Johnson

ATLANTA FALCONS

Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::

• Offense: Zac Robinson returns as the offensive coordinator for the Falcons and will look to build on the strong end-of-season performances of their young stars.
• Defense: In January, the Falcons hired former Jets Interim Head Coach Jeff Ulbrich to be their defensive coordinator.

Personnel Changes::

• QB Michael Penix Jr. was handed the reins to the team late in the 2024 season and performed admirably, although he ultimately failed to lead the team to the playoffs. Penix showed flashes late in the season, especially with a huge game in Week 18, and he’ll look to break out in his first year as the team’s clear-cut starter from Day 1 of the offseason program.
• Bijan Robinson ascended to his rightful place among the league’s top running backs in 2024 and is primed for another huge season, while Tyler Allgeier remains a part of the Falcons’ offense and one of the more valuable backup RBs in the league.
• Drake London and Darnell Mooney are back as the Falcons top wide receivers and could flourish with Penix under center.
• Kyle Pitts was disappointing yet again in 2024, although he did exhibit a couple of flashes of the player we hoped to see when he entered the league. Pitts is in the fifth and final year of his rookie contract but is still only 24 years old.

Schedule::

• Divisional Games (6)::
  • CAR x2, NO x2, TB x2
• NFC West (4)::
  • @ SF, @ ARI, vs. SEA, vs. LAR
• AFC East (4)::
• @ NE, @ NYJ, vs. BUF, vs. MIA
• vs. WAS, @ IND, @ MIN

Bull Case ::

This could be the year things come together for the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta has invested heavily in this side of the ball over the last few seasons and all signs are pointing up. Penix demonstrated great traits and chemistry with his receiving corps to end 2024, while Robinson and London are among the top players at their positions and both are under 25 years of age. Mooney’s speed and growing skill set is the perfect complement to London. Meanwhile, Pitts has had a disappointing start to his career, but in theory, he should be the healthiest he has been since 2022 and is heading into a contract year.

Atlanta plays in the most fantasy-friendly division in football and returns basically the same cast of skill players as they enter the second season with Zac Robinson’s offensive system. Penix gets an entire offseason as the clear-cut starter rather than enduring last season’s constant questions around how the Falcons handled the draft and free agency. Penix showed some great flashes to end 2024 and answered a lot of questions his “haters” had when he entered the league. All things considered, this could be the year it all comes together for the Falcons. Carolina and New Orleans seem like teams that still have a ways to go, while the Bucs are the top competition for the NFC South title while having a lot of questions of their own.  

Bear Case ::

The biggest question around the Atlanta offense would seemingly be depth. Pitts has underwhelmed throughout his career and the tight-end depth chart behind him is barren. Mooney’s speed and ascending career path is exciting, while London and Robinson are elite players at their positions. However, if the Falcons were to play without one or more of those players for any extended period of time, the drop-off in talent would be extreme and cause spacing and play-calling issues for Atlanta. 

Another worry for the Falcons from a fantasy perspective is the fact that there is a strong reason to believe their defense will be much stronger in 2025. Atlanta selected two pass rushers in the first round of the NFL Draft, addressing something that has plagued the Falcons in recent years. Head coach Raheem Morris along with former Jets assistant and now Falcons defensive coordinator Ulbrich are likely to have Atlanta playing better on that side of the ball in 2025. While this will help game scripts and lead to more wins for the Falcons, it could hurt the chances of shootouts like we saw Atlanta find themselves in a handful of times last season.

Expectations/Takeaways::

As noted above, the Falcons’ defense should be improved in 2025. However, it is unlikely to become elite, and in theory, this could be the best of both worlds for Atlanta as it can dominate game scripts and build leads (meaning they are putting up points and accumulating yards) against weaker teams while staying competitive against stronger teams. Atlanta feels like a team who will be in the top 10 in the league in yards and points in 2025 if it can stay healthy.

• Penix is a terrific QB target in the 12th-to-14th rounds of fantasy drafts. He is young and has job security with elite weapons at his disposal. We should always be looking for upside and the ability for players to outperform their draft position, and Penix’s current QB21 ADP seems like it is near the low end of his range of outcomes. He has a high weekly ceiling and in formats with “playoff” weeks (UD and DK), pairing him with Bijan and/or London could easily be something that helps you advance or puts you over the top in Week 17, especially with the Falcons likely to have a divisional game with the Panthers, Saints, or Bucs on that week.
• Bijan is a top-five pick in basically every draft, and rightfully so. It wouldn’t shock me if this is Bijan’s first “RB1” year, as he enters his true prime while the Falcons’ offense and team outlook are peaking.
• London’s skill set and usage is such that he has a very high floor, and we saw his ceiling in Week 18 against the Panthers last season when he went 10 // 187 // 2. He is currently a mid-second round pick and that is right where he belongs, with an argument to be made that he is a solid pick at the 1/2 turn.
• Mooney is currently going at the 8/9 turn and Pitts is going in the 12th or 13th round of most drafts. While Bijan and London get most of the love, Mooney and Pitts are in position to massively outproduce their ADPs. I would say there is a strong chance that at least one of them does so, as the Falcons’ offense seems very likely to score a lot of points and Penix is not the type of QB like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts who steals a bunch of production with his legs. 

CAROLINA PANTHERS