Monday, Dec 2nd

2024 NFC South Over/Under Valued Players

Atlanta Falcons:

Undervalued: QB Kirk Cousins (11)

Cousins is going as the 18th QB off the board in Round 11 and is a steal. When healthy, Cousins is a lock for 4000+ passing yards and 25 TDs. He’s going to an Atlanta team that has a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and desire to throw the ball more than in the past. If you are like me and prefer to wait on drafting your QB, you can win your league with Cousins.

Overvalued: TE Kyle Pitts (6)

This is the year that Pitts has a breakout, right?! Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me every year he’s been in the league, and I pity the fool who drafts him in Round 6. Yes, the offense is going to be different and there won’t be Arthur Smith’s lovechild Jonnu Smith around, but with Bijan and London fighting for targets, I am not taking Pitts in Round 6 when I can be taking a monster WR2 like Chris Godwin or Keenan Allen. Plus, I would rather take David Njoku three rounds later and get similar stats.

Carolina Panthers:

Undervalued: WR Diontae Johnson (7)

Carolina brought Johnson over from Pittsburgh to give Bryce Young a true WR1. Johnson is a target machine whose main issue in the NFL thus far has been his inability to stay healthy. The best ability is availability and if Johnson can figure that out, he could be a lock for 100+ receptions. In Round 7 it’s rare to get a player of his quality which is why I am willing to take the risk on drafting him.

Overvalued: RB Jonathan Brooks (8)

I love Brooks and think that he will eventually be a stud in Dave Canales’ offense. However, he is recovering from a gruesome knee injury that he suffered last season, so I don’t think the team is going to give him a ton of carries early on. Additionally, he needs to work on his pass protection to be a true three down RB. If you take Brooks here, make sure to add Chuba Hubbard in Round 12 just in case Hubbard steals a ton of carries early in the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Undervalued: QB Baker Mayfield (13)

Did you watch Baker closely last season? He was hard to stomach for the first 10 or 11 games but in the Bucs last six games he threw for over 283 yards in five of them along with 14 TDs. While it’s true that Canales left to go to Carolina, Baker looked more confident in general as the season went on. Tampa added Jalen McMillan in this year’s draft who was a stud at the University of Washington. Chris Godwin is expected to be back in the slot too which should help the offense continue to thrive.

Overvalued: RB Bucky Irving (15)

I am the President of the Rachaad White Fanclub. White is a true three-down RB who was instrumental in helping the Bucs make the playoffs in 2023. When the team drafted Irving out of Oregon a lot of people assumed that this would lead to the demise of White’s carries, but I strongly disagree. Tampa’s only backups last season were Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds and neither player was NFL caliber. Irving will likely get steamed up as we get closer to Week 1 but I don’t see myself drafting him unless I draft White.

New Orleans Saints:

Undervalued: RB Kendre Miller (11)

I have been a believer in Miller’s talent from his days at TCU. He’s 6’ 220 lbs. and a load to take down. When he finally got a chance to start in Week 18 he had 13 carries for 73 yards and a TD. The Saints need his young, fresh legs if they want to make the playoffs. Miller in the 11th feels like an absolute steal and I will take him every time in that round if given the chance.

Overvalued: RB Alvin Kamara (5)

If the arrow is pointing up on Miller, then it must be pointing down on Kamara. There’s still some value in his receiving ability in PPR leagues but there’s not a chance that I will spend a 5th round pick on a player whose best days are behind him. Wait until Rounds 7-9 and get a RB like Tony Pollard or Devin Singletary and take a WR2 in Round 5 instead of taking Kamara.