XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Welcome to Week 8! We’re almost halfway through the season already, and like every season, it feels like it’s going by incredibly quickly. We start this week with the Bucs visiting the Bills for a 42.5 total game with Buffalo favored by 8.5. The Bills defense has been great all year, allowing just 16.9 points per game and holding every opponent except the Patriots (of all teams) to 25 or fewer points, but their offense has been quite inconsistent with three games of 37+ points, 25 points against the Pats, and then three games of 20 or fewer points (one of which was against the Jets elite defense and can be forgiven, but the other two were against the Jags and the Giants). The Bills are clearly a good overall offense, but the inconsistency certainly opens up different paths for this game. Let’s see if we can figure it out. 

Buffalo

The Bills run game starts with James Cook, who is going to face a very tough matchup on the ground. Cook isn’t the kind of back who is likely to see 20+ carries (his high on the season is 17 and he generally caps out in the mid-teens). Cook is an able pass catcher but has only averaged three targets per game so far and he’s also splitting the red zone workload with Latavius Murray and Josh Allen (who has not been running nearly as much this season but does still have 11 red zone rush attempts, while Cook and Murray each have 12). If we just look at inside the 10 yard line, it skews even more away from Cook with seven attempts against ten for Latavius. On the one hand, Cook is a big home favorite who can catch passes, a spot we generally like for running backs. On the other hand, his workload is modest, his receiving role is modest, he doesn’t have a strong goal line role, and the matchup is poor. There’s nothing that really makes Cook stand out here as a play, especially up at $8,600, beyond just hoping for variance to go your way. I’m likely to be underweight on him. Murray at $4,800 is the epitome of the “RB2 in Showdown” play: he won’t get a ton of touches, but he’s cheap, he’s likely to get a target or two and the goal line work skews his way, so if he finds his way into the end zone he could pay off. At his price he likely needs more than just an end zone visit – he probably needs something like 12 or so points to be worthwhile, and he only has one performance this season without a touchdown where if you said, “but if he just added a touchdown he’d have gotten there.” 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bills have gone to a game plan of “Stef Diggs, Stef Diggs, Stef Diggs, then everyone else.” Diggs is second in the NFL in targets per game with a whopping 78 and he has at least 100 receiving yards, a touchdown, or both in six of seven games. That, my friends, is an elite role. Allen looks his way in all situations. Against a Tampa defense that is more vulnerable to the pass, he’s an elite option on this slate. The WR2 is of course Gabe Davis, who is their deep threat and will have to find his way there on more limited volume. Davis is averaging just five targets per game this season and has only gone over that mark twice. He’ll need a touchdown and/or some long catches to pay off, but he’s put up scores you’d be happy with twice already this season. He’s a high variance but high upside play. WR3 will be a rotation of Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield, and Khalil Shakir, with Harty the strongest play of all of those (admittedly modest) options. Shakir is probably the most interesting in tournaments. Harty is the “best” option to me but they’re all really close, and Shakir’s price of $3,200 likely means that people will ignore him when Harty and Sherfield are so cheap (Harty has also been a popular play in every Bills Showdown this year, so I expect he’ll attract the highest ownership). Paying up modestly for Shakir is likely to get you an ownership discount. I also would not play these guys together. 

At tight end, Dawson Knox is out after surgery leaving Dalton Kincaid, and we’re not so sure who else. TE3 Quintin Morris was inactive last week after an ankle injury and has not practiced yet this week so there’s a strong chance he misses (even if he plays, he’s just a punt option with one target on the season). Watch to see who the Bills call up from the practice squad, and whoever it is then becomes a punt option (likely at very little ownership if we don’t know who it is until close to game time). Kincaid, though, is in a really nice spot: he’s a talented young rookie who has already been performing reasonably well this season and now Knox is out, which should push him into a nearly every-down role. Coming off of the best game of his young career, catching eight of eight targets for 75 yards last week, he looks like a major bargain at $5,000. I’m very in on him and he’s my second-favorite Bills pass catcher after Diggs. 

Tampa Bay

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both of these teams enter Week 8 coming off a bye and hoping for a strong second half to the season with their high profile rookie quarterbacks.
• The Panthers are 0-6 and do not own their 2024 first-round draft pick. 
• Texans quarterback CJ Stroud is currently the odds-on favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• The Panthers run defense has been near-historically bad to start this season, but their pass defense hasn’t been that much better.
• Houston’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack against both the run and the pass but has been playing extremely well lately.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans have been one of the pleasant surprises to start this NFL season, turning things around faster than almost any outsider was expecting and proving to be a competitive team on both sides of the ball. After a rough start to the year, the Texans defense has rounded into form recently and has held four straight opponents to low point totals. During that stretch, the Texans have a 3-1 record, with their only loss coming on the road thanks to a last-second field goal by the Falcons. That stretch is made even more impressive because it has come against solid competition. The four teams they have faced during that stretch have a combined 15-8 record in “non-Texans” games this season – a 65% winning percentage. This team is quietly playing some of the best football in the league and should be getting healthier as they emerge from their bye week.

During the NFL Draft process, CJ Stroud took many (often unnecessary and unwarranted) shots as people tried to poke holes in his game and question his ability to lead an NFL team. He has answered those questions and put the haters to rest rather quickly to start his NFL career, as he currently ranks 4th in the NFL in yards-per-attempt and 10th in QB rating. He has done this while playing with a receiving corps that was widely regarded as one of the worst in the NFL entering the season and behind an offensive line that injuries have decimated. This week Stroud and the Texans offense get their easiest on-paper matchup of the season against the Panthers league-worst run defense and below average pass defense. Houston has a below-average Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the season and will likely continue down a similar path in Week 8, as they should have more success on the ground here than they have this year. That being said, their own running game is near the bottom of the league in most metrics, and they are unlikely to totally lean on the running game when Stroud has been so good. Their offensive line is also getting healthier, so their rushing efficiency should improve in this game, and Stroud should have time to make some plays in the passing game. Carolina plays zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league, and Stroud should have ample time to pick that zone apart. While his pass attempts may be down a bit this week, he will likely be very efficient when throwing it.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Cowboys OT Tyron Smith (neck) was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant.
• Rams OT Rob Havenstein (calf) was added to the injury report Thursday as a ‘DNP,’ somewhat concerning considering he was not present on the report Wednesday.
• The Cowboys and Rams are both in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play and the middle third of the league in pass rate over expectation.
• The Rams are coming off of their highest rush rate over expectation in a game this season… with a running back they signed off the street.
• The Rams and Cowboys are both near league-average in plays per game at 65.4 and 65.3, respectively.
• Both teams are in the top half of the league in opponent plays per game at 57.8 (Cowboys) and 62.7 (Rams).
• We’re likely to see a below-average number of total plays in this one.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams sit in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play (20th-ranked 28.8 seconds per play) and had been near the top five in pass rate over expectation until their most run-heavy game of the season in Week 7, a game played with a primary running back who was signed off the street that week. Yes, Darrell Henderson had been with the organization previously, but the play-calling tendencies exhibited by Sean McVay against a Steelers team with an elite pass rush but not much else as far as proven defensive prowess goes was interesting, to say the least. If nothing else, it proved that McVay is one of the more opponent-specific game-callers in the league. That’s also interesting because the Cowboys present a similar on-paper matchup per DVOA and general defensive tendencies, with the major departure that the Cowboys play a lot more man coverage than the Steelers.

Dallas has faced just 161 rush attempts against through six games, primarily a function of the game environments they find themselves in. They have allowed 4.2 yards per carry and are around the middle of the pack, with 1.32 yards allowed before contact. Nothing in the matchup appears overly prohibitive on the ground other than routinely negative game scripts forced by the Cowboys this season, yielding near-average values in yards allowed before contact, DVOA, and yards allowed per carry. Kyren Williams was placed on injured reserve prior to Week 7 with his ankle injury, which left the team scrambling to find a back they were comfortable with in pass protection, only to carry their highest rush rate over expectation of the season via Darrell Henderson. Henderson’s 18 carries for 61 yards was about as expected, considering he was out of football for so long, with it likeliest he was utilized as the starter for his ability in pass protection as opposed to some otherworldly rushing ability. I don’t know for certain how McVay views this matchup, but I would subjectively view this spot as more conducive to aerial production against man coverage, considering Tutu Atwell and Cooper Kupp are on the roster, two players that crush man. Either way, Henderson and Royce Freeman split snaps almost down the middle a week ago and could do so again here, leaving little room for upside considering the likeliest path of attack.

Matthew Stafford is tied for third in total pass attempts through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season (256, or 36.6 per game). The Cowboys are in man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league this season (33.7 percent). Cooper Kupp has an elite 37.0 percent targets per route run rate against man coverage this season, followed by Puka Nacua (21.7 percent) and Tutu Atwell (21.3 percent). As we’ve talked about previously, Tutu has served as the primary pre-snap motion man in this offense in 2023. As we also had previously discussed, Puka Nacua had largely struggled against man coverage prior to Week 7 before shredding the elevated man coverage rates from the Steelers, bumping his seasonal averages to 0.43 fantasy points per route run and 2.05 yards per route run against man coverage. This is a far more difficult matchup on paper than it was a week ago against the Steelers, but it’s a relatively similar setup in that the strength of the defense is the front seven. The Rams are around league average in 12-personnel usage with zero snaps from 21-personnel this season, meaning we should see a highly concentrated pass offense amongst Kupp, Nacua, Atwell, and tight end Tyler Higbee, the latter of who is in a route at an elite 89.6 percent rate but has seen his targets per route run rate dip all the way to 15.2 percent this season. From a macro perspective, this offense should primarily run through Kupp and Nacua until further notice.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Luke Musgrave has yet to practice (as of Thursday) with an ankle injury.
• CB Jaire Alexander was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ Thursday, while Eric Stokes and Darnell Savage were placed on injured reserve Wednesday.
• RB Aaron Jones got in a limited session Thursday and a ‘DNP’ Wednesday.
• TE T.J. Hockenson upgraded from ‘DNP’ to limited Thursday.
• Both the Packers and Vikings rank in the bottom 10 in the league in opponent plays per game, which is simultaneously telling regarding their offense and defense.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings continue to be one of the highest pass-rate-over-expectation (PROE) teams in the league, currently trailing only the Bengals and Chiefs in that metric. But a fourth-ranked 26.9 seconds per play and extreme pass-heavy tendencies (league-low 19.1 rush attempts per game) have led to the potential for additional offensive plays run from scrimmage in games the Vikings are involved in. Kirk Cousins leads the league in total pass attempts, ranks second in yards, and fifth in total intended air yards (IAY), albeit with a modest 7.4 intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA). Basically, the Vikings have been extremely fast and pass-leaning, but largely incapable or unwilling to attack downfield at great frequency, which has left them reliant on stringing drives together through the air – which has, in turn, led to low average time of possession and below average offensive plays run from scrimmage per game. The good news here is that Joe Barry’s mega-prevent defensive scheme has held opposition to a 6.2-yard defensive aDOT this season, which aligns with how the Vikings should be looking to attack this game. Furthering the potential here is a banged up Packers secondary as Alexander was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ on Thursday, while Savage and Stokes were both placed on injured reserve Wednesday. Jonathan Owens and Rudy Ford are not on the same level of talent as those two are, and Alexander’s absence would likely force Keisean Nixon into a perimeter role, unless the Packers want to play one of two 2023 seventh-round picks on the perimeter. 

Cam Akers worked his way into 39 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 7, his highest rate of the season while with Minnesota. He saw 13 running back opportunities to 11 for Mattison, which could continue forward as a strict timeshare considering head coach Kevin O’Connell’s propensity to take a while to either admit mistakes or change personnel (more on that later when we talk about rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison playing behind K.J. freaking Osborn – I digress). Either way, the clearest path to moving the ball against the Packers remains on the ground, although we know the Vikings largely base their attack through the air. The fact the Vikings have a season high of 24 team rush attempts through seven games played should be a clear indication that the upside from the backfield is rather limited, particularly considering the Minnesota offensive line has blocked to just 1.21 yards before contact.

Continuing the discussion from above, the defensive tendencies from the Packers align naturally with how the Vikings are likely to approach this game on offense – and now the Packers will certainly be without two starters in the secondary while another was downgraded mid-week in practice to a ‘DNP.’ The Vikings have turned to elevated rates of 21-personnel in the absence of Justin Jefferson, with Osborn playing nearly every offensive snap (lolz), electric rookie Addison in a 75-85 percent snap rate role alongside Hockenson, and Brandon Powell in a 60 percent snap rate role. Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt are primarily blockers but share the 40-60 percent snap rate left over from the 12-personnel rates. Osborn is very good… at running empty routes and dropping passes. Sorry, I had to. Addison was arguably the most pro-ready wide receiver to come out of this year’s draft class. I’m not adept at KOC math, but that doesn’t add up to me. Either way, O’Connell has been known to be stubborn when it comes to personnel decisions, which we alluded to when speaking to the running back situation. As far as upside goes, Addison and Hockenson are the two likeliest to take advantage of the soft zone concepts of Barry’s defense.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Two of the top six teams in seconds per play (NO – 27.3, IND – 26.5) and plays per game (NO – 70.6, IND – 67.1). The Colts have been a breeding ground for solid game environments through seven weeks.
• RB Zack Moss (elbow/heel) and TE Kylen Granson (concussion) did not practice Wednesday for the Colts.
• RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Wednesday for the Saints.
• WR Chris Olave was arrested Monday night for doing 70 in a 35 zone but was processed and released with no further action. Expect him to be out there on Sunday, and it’s unlikely he sees any discipline from the league moving forward.
• Through the air, the Colts’ defense is built to take away the likeliest approach from the Saints, while the Colts are not adept at attacking the weaknesses of the Saints pass defense.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints are a team built from their defense outwards. That makes sense, considering head coach Dennis Allen spent his entire coaching career coaching the defensive side of the ball, but it begs repeating here. As such, what the Saints try and do offensively depends on the game’s flow and carries elevated rates of situational biases. Yes, they are playing with pace this season and have run a lot of plays per game, but the heart of this team very much rests with the defense. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael has had success in the past designing an offense to maximize the talent he has on the field. Still, the truth is that his offenses have looked bland and unimaginative since Drew Brees retired. Put another way; this offense has not averaged more than 21.4 points per game since the 2020 season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring in the previous three years. Adding to those struggles in 2023 are difficulties in the red zone as the Saints currently rank 28th in the league in red zone touchdown rate, finding the end zone on just 37.50 percent of their possessions that end inside the opposition’s 20-yard line (71.62 percent in 2020, 58.93 percent in 2021, and 52.08 percent in 2022). As for the offensive design, only 33 pass attempts have come from play action all year, and the offense rarely utilizes pre-snap motion. The Saints have a man in motion at snap at the fourth lowest rate in the league and a player in motion that comes set prior to the snap at the second lowest rate this year. To hammer the point home a bit more – quite mundane. Yes, quite.

The run game has been hit hard by this more face-up offensive approach, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry behind 1.25 yards before contact this season. Yes, they’ve had an injury-and-suspension-induced carousel at running back, but Alvin Kamara has even been held to under 3.8 yards per tote. The matchup yields just 1.28 net yards before contact against a Colts defense holding opposing backs to 3.8 yards per carry this season. Kamara’s workload remains robust (80.0 percent opportunity share ranks fifth, a filthy 9.8 targets per game, on pace to break the single-season targets record set by Christian McCaffrey while missing three games), but the expected efficiency on the ground is not pretty in this spot. 9.8 targets per game is laughably adequate to offset those concerns, but it is worth mentioning how vanilla this offense has been thus far. Jamaal Williams returned from injury in Week 7 to a 22 percent snap rate and just five carries. Finally, Kendre Miller got in a full practice, while both starting tackles (Ryan Ramczyk and Landon Young) got in limited sessions on Wednesday after missing Week 7.

As was alluded to above, Carmichael’s idea of a forward-leaning offense involves gadget plays via “tight end” Taysom Hill with downfield shots mixed in. Quarterback Derek Carr ranks eighth in intended air yards per pass attempt, and alpha wide receiver Chris Olave has the most targets without a dropped pass this season, but the offense is more “hey you, go beat that man” instead of “hey, let’s do something to get our guys in the best spot to succeed.” As in, the only quarterback with a bigger disparity between IAY/PA and completed air yards per pass attempt than Carr is Jordan Love. Joshua Dobbs and Baker Mayfield rank just behind those two. It’s not the greatest company to find yourself in. Carr’s 48 poor throws are the worst in the league. Apologies if it seems like I’m just ripping this pass offense – but yeah, it hasn’t been great through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season. Even with all that, two players on this offense can succeed despite the mediocrity – Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Olave has seen double-digit looks in five of seven games, while Kamara has two games (of four played) with 14 targets. That kind of volume is hard to come by, friends. While Olave has not been utilized in motion much, he has been moved around the formation at a solid rate, seeing a 36.2 percent slot snap rate and running the most routes of any wide receiver this year. His 18 deep targets also pace the league (his 579 unrealized air yards do, too). Everything screams, “This dude is going to have a smash game eventually,” but a matchup against the heavy Cover-3 rates of Gus Bradley’s defense put a slight damper on those expectations. Olave has a solid 29.29 percent targets per route run rate against Cover-3 this season but just a 65.5 percent catch rate and 10.8 yards per reception against that primary coverage (for comparison, Adam Thielen has a similar targets per route run rate and 10.9 yards per reception against Cover-3 this year). Another comparison – Alvin Kamara has a 37.1 percent targets per route run rate against Cover-3 this year. That’s important, considering the Colts play the most Cover-3 in the league.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• There is some serious injury uncertainty with the Dolphins this week, with Tyreek Hill (hip) and Raheem Mostert (ankle) missing practice on Wednesday.
• Five cornerbacks were limited on Wednesday for the Dolphins, but it appears as if all five are in line to play this weekend.
• WR Jaylen Waddle managed a limited session on Wednesday after departing Week 7 with a back injury. He ultimately returned to the game but missed over a quarter of play.
• UPDATE: Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert managed limited sessions on Thursday.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The best way to visualize how the Patriots have been forced to try and win games is by looking at their pace of play compared to the number of offensive plays they can run per game. New England runs the fastest offense in the league from a seconds-per-play perspective (26.4) but has averaged just 62.1 plays per game, which ranks 19th in the league. They also average just 14.4 points per game, good for 31st in the league. In other words, the Patriots have been highly inefficient on offense and have largely relied on their defensive prowess to put them in position to win games. At a 2-5 record, that hasn’t happened often. Even so, the Patriots will rarely be blown out of the water, with five of seven games decided by seven points or less (they had a rough stretch in Week 4 and Week 5, where they were outscored by a combined 69 points in a two-game stretch). Most weeks, against most opponents, this team should find a way to keep things close into the fourth quarter, in typical Bill Belichick fashion.

The Patriots very clearly want to be a team that can control the clock at greater frequency than they have to this point in the season, ranking top 10 in rush rate over expectation. Negative game scripts and poor offensive volume have meant they have averaged only 24.4 rush attempts per game through seven weeks, which is 22nd in the league. But the fact remains that they would otherwise like to subject their defense to less beating, and a lot of that would be lessened by a more successful run game (because, quite frankly, the Patriots do not have the tools to be able to win consistently through the air). The major problem with that design is a one-dimensional offensive scheme that lacks many forward-thinking principles, leaving the offense vanilla and straightforward. Until that changes (remains questionable), New England could continue to struggle to control game environments for the remainder of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has settled into a 60-65 percent snap rate and opportunity share in recent weeks, backed up by change-of-pace grinder Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson has managed just 3.1 yards per carry and 3.9 yards per touch, with Zeke putting up 3.7 yards per carry and 3.9 yards per touch. The offensive line has blocked to just 1.27 yards before contact, right in line with the 1.26 yards before contact allowed by the Miami defense. Nothing here points to higher levels of efficiency than what they’ve managed to this point in the season.

Demario Douglas returned from a missed game to immediately eat into DeVante Parker’s role in the offense, which makes sense considering how poorly Parker has played through the first half of the season. Taking into account a split tight end corps and elevated 12-personnel rates left only Kendrick Bourne as an every-down pass-catcher in Week 7. Juju Smith-Schuster should return from two missed games due to a concussion after not being listed on the team’s injury report Wednesday, which is likeliest to eat into Douglas’ growing role in the offense in addition to the 25 offensive snaps from Jalen Reagor as opposed to sap Bourne’s established role. As such, we will likely see a similar snap breakdown to what we saw last week, with Smith-Schuster, Parker, and Douglas sharing the 150-160 percent available snap rate for two players induced by the 40 percent 12-personnel rates from the offense. Vic Fangio’s 2-high base defense hasn’t performed up to expectations to this point in the season. Still, a heavy zone base requires additional communication, which will likely improve as the season progresses. Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas are the team’s top two pass-catchers against zone coverage this season, with Smith-Schuster seeing the highest target rate against man.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed were full participants in Wednesday’s practice, a good sign that they will both return from a missed game due to concussions.
• Giants QB Daniel Jones was listed as a limited participant again on Wednesday, just as he was all last week before missing Week 7’s game.
• Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play and combine for just 121 plays per game – the average this season is just under 130 plays per game.
• Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
• WR Randall Cobb did not practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, and Mecole Hardman was dealt back to the Chiefs, potentially opening up additional snaps for undrafted free agent rookie WR Xavier Gipson, who has been the primary slot fill-in behind Cobb to this point in the season.

How new york jets Will Try To Win ::

The Jets have run a balanced offense with a moderate pace of play in the absence of Aaron Rodgers this season, which has no indication of changing any time soon. One of the more telling splits that indicate how the Jets are likeliest to attack this spot is the drastic changes in numbers against the blitz versus when kept clean for Zach Wilson both this season and throughout his career. Wilson is a slightly below-average quarterback when kept clean but a legitimate bottom-five passer when blitzed. That’s important because Wink Martindale’s defense has blitzed over 41 percent of their defensive snaps this season. I know this, you know this – so we can bet Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett know this. That should lead to a heavy emphasis on the ground game as the Jets look to leverage their defense and string together long drives on their way to grinding out a victory. Finally, the Jets are coming off of their bye week but managed to hand the then-undefeated Eagles their first loss of the season in Week 6. They stole victory from the clutches of defeat after going down 14-3 in the second quarter, sticking to their game plan of parlaying defensive success into a methodical approach on offense. Finally, the Jets have absolutely held their own while running the proverbial gauntlet early in the season, with wins over Buffalo, Denver, and Philadelphia and narrow losses to Kansas City and New England (blown out by the Cowboys). They are now entering a time in the season when their schedule lightens up a bit.

After starting the season slowly while working his way back to full strength, Breece Hall has handled 80.8 percent of the team’s running back opportunities on snap rates of 52 and 66 percent over the previous two games. Hall’s 6.5 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per touch rank second in the league behind only De’Von Achane in Miami, while his juke rate (29.1 percent) and breakaway run rate (9.1 percent) both rank in the top six. The dude is a legitimate joystick. He has done all this despite the fifth-worst game script rating. The matchup yields the third-highest net yards before contact value on the slate against a Giants defense that has surrendered a massive 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backs. Dalvin Cook has played just 20 total offensive snaps the past two games in a light change of pace role, ceding passing down duties to Michael Carter.

The Jets have run their offense with above average rates of 12-personnel and sparse utilization of 21-personnel, leaving their offense based almost entirely out of 11- and 12-personnel. The biggest issue with this Hackett offense has been a very vanilla offensive design through the air. The good news is that the bulk of the pass offense is concentrated on one man, second-year alpha wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson holds an elite 32.5 percent team target market share and a bonkers 54.5 percent red zone target market share, seeing 9.2 targets per game this season. Low efficiency and few scoring opportunities have kept his season-high to just 17.0 DK points, but the underlying metrics hint at a potential breakout game or two the rest of the way. Allen Lazard is the only other pass-catcher to operate in a near-every-down role, but he carries modest marks in target market share (13.6 percent) and targets per route run rate (12.4 percent), carrying the most utility for his run-blocking abilities. Finally, Xavier Gipson could be thrust into an increased role with Mecole Hardman no longer in town and slot man Randall Cobb looking on the worse side of questionable with a shoulder injury. Gipson, the team’s primary kick returner, is a touchdown-waiting-to-happen type player with elite vision and burst with the ball in his hands. He has seen just one target on the season, so this could be a case of the volume simply flowing to Hall and Wilson at an increased rate, but he’s an interesting upside piece at likely low ownership this weekend for loose MME pools.

How new york giants Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Jacksonville has a chance to build on their strong start to the season and head into their bye week with a 6-2 record and comfortable lead in the AFC South.
• Pittsburgh has been one of the most up and down teams in the league but enters this game a half game behind Baltimore in the AFC North.
• Both teams have top 10 defenses but the Pittsburgh offense has been disappointing and the Jacksonville offense has been inconsistent.
• Pittsburgh’s secondary has given up big games to opposing wide receivers on several occasions this season.
• The Jaguars will have a week of rest after this game, while the Steelers have to turn around and play again on Thursday night.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have a Week 9 bye and will travel to Pittsburgh this week with the opportunity to have control of their division as they head into the second half of the season. The Jaguars have had an eventful season already, playing two consecutive games in London and riding a four game winning streak into Week 8. While last season’s AFC South title and Divisional Round playoff run were sparked primarily by Trevor Lawrence and the offense, this year’s Jaguars team has been led by an improved defense and running game. Lawrence has certainly not performed poorly, but the Jaguars defense has used its speed and aggressiveness to swallow up opponents and control games. 

The Jaguars offense ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and once again ranks among the top 10 teams scoring. Jacksonville’s skill group is a very good unit with Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones making up an underrated receiving corps, Evan Engram performing as one of the top receiving tight ends in the league, and Travis Etienne ranking among the league leaders in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense is coming off a game where they dominated the line of scrimmage against the Rams and came up with a big road victory. The Steelers play man coverage at the seventh highest rate but notably play very little “press” coverage, instead giving cushion to opposing wide receivers. This is particularly important for this week because Calvin Ridley has struggled historically against press coverage and has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Pittsburgh has given up huge games this season to Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, and Brandon Aiyuk. While slot receiver Christian Kirk has been the star of the show in recent weeks, this could be a Ridley week if he is able to get free releases and create separation. The Jaguars rank 29th in PFF run blocking grade and while they’ve had success this season, and the Steelers defensive metrics don’t jump off the page in that area, we can confidently expect that the bulk of Jacksonville’s offensive production will need to be generated through the air. For what it’s worth, the Steelers have given up 10 first quarter points twice this year and lost both of those games by significant margins, while in their other four games, they led or were tied after one quarter and went on to win. Jacksonville would be best served in this game to come out swinging and put the Steelers on their heels rather than playing into their hands with a slow paced slugfest.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Wake up Grandpa! This game features two of the lowest teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE).
• The Titans are the slowest team in the league, while the Falcons are the run-heaviest team, leaving limited paths to DFS fireworks 
• Arthur Smith spent his entire career coaching in Tennessee before being hired by the Falcons and built his team in the Titans’ image 
• Both teams are much stronger at stopping the run than the pass, but neither coach is likely to change their approach on offense.
• Bijan Robinson saw a $1,300 price decrease on DK and is priced $2,000 below where he was Week 1. 
• Desmond Ridder and Drake London remain stubbornly priced below their upside. 
• Derrick Henry has moved into a timeshare; with snap counts of 53% // 62% // 59% the past three weeks, he’s overpriced for his role. 
• The Titans are likely set to trot out some combination of Malik Willis and Will Levis at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill (ankle) expected to be sidelined.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The 4-3 Falcons come into Week 8 sitting atop the horrific NFC South. They are one of only two teams in the league (Steelers) with a negative point differential (-18) and a winning record. Smith’s Falcons have been hard to watch for most of the year, but they aren’t going to feel like failures inside their own locker room. The Falcons have one of the clearest identities in the league. They are dead last in PROE and have shown that they’re only willing to open their offense if forced to chase points. The Falcons are going to play behind their elite offensive line (3^rd-ranked per PFF), highlighted by center Drew Dalman’s league-leading run-blocking grade. The Falcons are going to run. 

Smith spent a decade as an assistant coach with the Titans. In fact, he never coached anywhere other than Tennessee before being hired as Atlanta’s head coach in 2021. Since the Titans won the Super Bowl several times in the past decade, Smith decided to build the Titans 2.0 in Atlanta. Wait, what’s that? The Titans have never won the Super Bowl? Then why would Smith want to copy a formula that isn’t working? Because his playing background is as an offensive lineman and he’s a typical uncreative NFL head coach who would rather lean into a 1990s play style that he knows than risk the perils of throwing the ball. Oh, duh, thanks for clearing that up, inner voice. 

The Titans are stout against the run (4^th in DVOA) but can’t stop anyone through the air (26^th in DVOA). Do the 1990s care? Does Smith’s mustache care?  Emmitt Smith would have run for 200 on these bums. The Falcons are a “do what we do” offense, and what they do is run the ball. That is unlikely to change, even against a defense that invites the pass. The Falcons have become one of the easiest teams in the league to predict, since they aren’t going to change their style of play based on their opponent. Smith’s game planning is like talking to the Rock in the 90s.

 “Coach Vrabel, where is your defense weakness?” asks Smith. 

“Well, we are pretty tough against the run, but can be beaten by the pa….” 

“IT DOESN’T MATTER WHERE YOUR DEFENSE IS WEAK,” shouts Smith. “I’m gonna take Robinson, shine him up real nice and good, turn that SOB sideways, and run him right up your candy ass!”

How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles CB Bradley Roby remained a ‘DNP’ on both Wednesday and Thursday, while S Reed Blankenship returned to full practices on both days.
• The Commanders have been one of the healthier teams in the league through the first seven weeks – only LG Saahdiq Charles and LB Cody Barton appear in danger of missing Week 8.
• The Commanders continued to defy logic by pushing the Eagles to overtime in their first meeting after handing them their first loss in the 2022 season – nothing on paper points to a likely repeat of those performances other than “these two teams are divisional rivals and are familiar with one another.”

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles continue to play with a slow pace (28th-ranked 29.7 seconds per play) and a balanced offense despite top-level indications of a more pass-heavy attack (seventh-highest pass rate over expectation). Digging deeper, Philadelphia ranks second in plays per game at 70.9 due to a highly disruptive defense and still averages “only” 34.9 pass attempts per game, which ranks 14th in the league. For comparison, the Browns rank first in plays per game at 71.2 and average 34.8 pass attempts per game but have a bottom ten pass rate over expectation. The difference is in the definition of “over expectation,” which takes game environment into account. The Browns have been in closer games throughout the season, while the Eagles have largely controlled their game environments. Therefore, the “expectation” for passing is much lower for a team like the Eagles as compared to the Browns. All of that to say, the Eagles have largely been in control of their games this season but can win really any way they choose from week to week due to the combination of talent, play-calling abilities, and defensive prowess. Against a Commanders team that is around league-average in blitz rate, pressure rate, and man-zone utilization, it is likely we will see a run-balanced approach from the Eagles.

The first thing we must understand when talking about the Philadelphia run game is that quarterback Jalen Hurts has averaged 10.6 carries per game in 2023 (leads the league) after leading the league with 11.0 carries per game in 2022. He scored 13 times on the ground a season ago and is on pace for another 14 this year. So, while D’Andre Swift has a 63.6 percent backfield opportunity share on a team that leads the league in rush attempts per game, he is averaging “only” 14.4 carries per game this season and has “only” two goal line carries through seven games (although the 4.3 targets per game help offset that modest per-game rushing volume). Kenneth Gainwell remains involved, seeing 8.2 carries and 2.0 targets per game, as well as 16 total red zone opportunities. Boiled down, the robust pass game involvement for Swift brings his effective workload to around 20 carries per game if a target is equivalent to about 1.5 carries, and he is averaging a solid 5.1 yards per touch. The matchup on the ground is tops on the slate against a Commanders defense, allowing the fourth largest yards before contact value and 4.4 yards per carry this season. It remains unlikely that Swift breaks the 100-yard threshold; he has more than four targets in just two of seven games this season, and he has scored only three touchdowns on the season behind Hurts’ robust red zone rushing role, but every now and then those stars will align for a fantasy eruption in this offense.

Above, we spoke about the Eagles’ ability to win in any way they choose. It just so happens that they’ve been choosing A.J. Brown as that path at a greater frequency than at any point last season. Brown made history last week as only the third wide receiver in the history of the league to surpass 125 yards receiving in five consecutive games, which was last accomplished by Calvin Johnson in Detroit. Brown is pacing for 115.6 yards per game, has the third highest air yards share amongst wide receivers, has the most raw air yards in the league at 141.3 per game, has an elite 32.9 percent target market share, and has seen the second most deep targets this season. Elite, friends. The most interesting aspect of this matchup is the league-average man-zone rates from the Commanders, who have been absolutely shredded when in man coverage but performed about league-average when in zone. That’s interesting because A.J. Brown holds a disgusting 37.9 percent targets per route run rate against man and a 21.1 percent targets per route run rate against zone this season. In these two teams’ first meeting this year, Brown burned rookie first-round cornerback Emmanuel Forbes for the majority of his 175 yards and both touchdowns while in man coverage. I highly doubt Riverboat Ron and Jack Del Rio will try that again (and Forbes has since been benched, playing only 24 defensive snaps in Week 5, none in Week 6, and five in Week 7). The Commanders understandably went with heavy rates of their nickel package in the first meeting (heavy as in they were in nickel at a 92 percent clip), which is typically how defenses handle mobile quarterbacks like Hurts. I think it’s likelier we see them back in base at a higher rate, which for them has been nickel at about a 60 percent rate this season. Base would mean higher zone rates and a more natural spread of expected pass volume amongst Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert, the latter of whom has destroyed zone this season. But again, that’s how I would handle the defense in this spot, and the Eagles can basically win any way they choose.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Browns are somehow in the race for the AFC North despite a tumultuous start to the season.
• Cleveland will play this game without quarterback Deshaun Watson (who is nursing a shoulder injury) as well as their top two running backs, Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford.
• Seattle’s last three games have all had combined scores of 30 or less.
• The Seahawks will likely welcome DK Metcalf back after missing last week’s win over Arizona with rib and hip injuries.
• The Seahawks pass defense is the only area of “weakness” according to DVOA metrics, as the Seattle run defense ranks third in the NFL and the Browns defense ranks second against both the pass and the run.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Deshaun Watson saga continues as he will miss this week’s game, and likely more, due to the nagging shoulder injury that has been following him around for over a month now. Veteran journeyman and XFL MVP PJ Walker will be the Browns starter for at least this week. He led the Browns to a stunning but ugly Week 6 win over the 49ers as he came on in relief to throw 32 passes in a thrilling last second victory over the Colts. The Browns were dead last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 7 as they ran the ball over 30 times in a wild 39-38 victory. The Browns are ranked 29th in PROE for the season, showing that last week was not a blip on the radar, and we should expect a similar approach this week in a hostile environment with their backup quarterback under center.

The issue for the Browns this week will be a Seattle defense that ranks third in the NFL in both run defense DVOA and opponents’ yards per carry. They have swallowed up everyone in their paths and should be able to key in on the Browns rushing attack to try to force Walker to beat them. Furthering the struggle for Cleveland will be the absence of Jerome Ford, who has been terrific as the lead runner for the Browns since Nick Chubb’s devastating knee injury. Ford has a sprained ankle of some variety and will miss at least the next 1-2 weeks. Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong will split backfield duties in the meantime, with Hunt likely to lead the team in carries and be used near the goal line while Strong gets a slightly smaller share of the rushing load and is involved more in space and the passing game. In any regard, these are near replacement level players at this point facing a top-notch run defense. The Browns have been known for having a very good offensive line for many years now, but this year they rank 20th in PFF run blocking grades through Week 7. 

Seattle’s defense plays primarily zone coverage, leading the league in zone coverage rate, and ranking 27th in the NFL in blitz rate. Their primary focus is to contain their opponents and prevent them from making big plays down the field while also executing a strong run defense that forces their opponents into long down and distance situations. They have been extremely effective with this approach this year, especially recently, as they have surrendered only 30 points combined in their last three games. Cleveland’s offense is likely to struggle running the ball and Seattle’s defense is going to keep them from successfully taking downfield shots, leaving the short to intermediate passing game – primarily in the middle of the field – as their most likely path to success moving the ball.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Ravens have the highest implied team total on the slate and are coming off a convincing win over the Lions.
• The Cardinals have been struggling despite some promising signs early in the season and now have a 1-6 record – but they may be getting Kyler Murray back soon.
• The Ravens should be able to move the ball in any manner they choose while the Cardinals will be throwing things at the wall and hoping they stick.
• Baltimore is coming off the most pass-heavy game this season in terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and appear to be hitting their stride in their new offensive system.
• There are signs for concern with the tempo of this game, mainly due to the play calling of the Cardinals and the pace of the Ravens.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens faced arguably their toughest test of the season in Week 7 when they welcomed the scorching-hot Lions to town, and Baltimore passed with flying colors. The Ravens not only pulled off the victory, they absolutely dominated Detroit from start to finish, building a 28-0 halftime lead and coasting to an easy 38-6 win. Lamar Jackson took another step in his return to the top echelon of NFL QB’s and the team’s offense had their highest single-week PROE of the year, as things seem to be settling into place and Lamar is starting to roll in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system.

This week, Baltimore will travel west for a game against a flailing Cardinals team that has lost its last four games by an average of 15 points. By all accounts, the Ravens *should* dominate this game on both sides of the ball. Baltimore is the top-rated team in the NFL by overall DVOA, while ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive DVOA rankings. Baltimore and Kansas City are the only teams that hold such a distinction, signifying how strong a contender both teams are. However, the NFL can be random and chaotic, with unpredictable outcomes happening on a weekly basis. If ever there was a set-up for a huge letdown game, this would be as they come following a huge home win against a team they were “up” to play and now traveling to sunny Arizona for what appears to be a “cakewalk” game. The Ravens are well coached, so they should be prepared and avoid that trap, but the situation is at least worth being aware of.

From a tactical standpoint, the Ravens are taking the training wheels off Jackson. Baltimore led the NFL in PROE in Week 7, setting a season high as they took it to a Lions defense that had previously been playing at an elite level. Jackson threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns in the first half of that game, while also running for a touchdown. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill each played exactly 50% of the snaps in Week 7, but Edwards has taken control of the Ravens backfield at this point in the year, as he had 15 opportunities compared to Hill’s five. Over the last four weeks, Hill has averaged 5.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game, while Edwards has averaged 14.3 carries and 1.3 targets per game. Lamar is averaging nearly 10 carries per game himself, which takes a big chunk of the backfield work away, but Edwards has established himself as the lead running back who also has goal-line duties. 

This week, the Ravens face a Cardinals defense that has given up 30 or more points in three of the last six games and has given up at least 20 in four straight contests. Arizona ranks in the bottom five in the NFL against both the run and the pass, and the Cardinals play a relatively conservative style of defense that focuses on taking away big plays and forcing teams to march down the field with long possessions – effectively shortening the game like a high school basketball team playing “stall ball” and running two minutes off the clock per possession. The Ravens should be able to play exactly how they want to, attacking the intermediate areas of the field through the air and leveraging Jackson’s dual-threat ability to create running lanes for him and their backs.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This is a rematch of an ugly 19-8 Chiefs victory from just two weeks ago.
• Kansas City currently has the largest lead in their division of any team in the NFL.
• The Chiefs offense finally came alive in Week 7 with a vintage Patrick Mahomes performance that included over 300 yards of passing in the first half.
• The Broncos offense appears to be heading in the wrong direction after a somewhat promising start to the season.
• The Kansas City defense has taken on a new, much more physical, identity this year and is a top 5 unit for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

My general rule of thumb for evaluating “short-week” games in the NFL in terms of how predictive they may be is: the shorter amount of prep time generally is going to favor the teams/units that are more physically talented while being a disadvantage to teams that rely more on their scheme and game planning to beat their opponents. I bring this up because we have a recent game between these two teams where the Chiefs offense struggled and was held to one touchdown for the first time all year by a previously struggling Broncos defense. If we look back a couple of weeks prior to that, the Broncos were completely overwhelmed by the speed and scheme of the Dolphins in their record-breaking 70-point performance. The Chiefs offense is primarily driven by the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes and the outstanding scheme and play-calling of Andy Reid. Their receiving corps is average at best and does not have elite physical skills, while their running game is also adequate but certainly not full of guys who jump off the page athletically. Obviously, Travis Kelce is a unicorn, and he had himself a game against the Broncos, but other than that, the Chiefs offense was not overly impressive. This week the Chiefs have a normal week of preparation and will have a fresh idea of what the Denver defense will present to them. I fully expect a much more cohesive Chiefs offense that builds off of last week’s “breakout” game against the Chargers.

As we have discussed in this space in past weeks, the Chiefs offense focuses primarily on their running backs and tight ends. Complicating things even more, they have about six wide receivers in the mix for playing time. Second round rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice seems to be emerging as the #2 target in the passing game, behind only Kelce, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore are next in line in terms of playing time. Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman play sparingly but are involved in schemed looks, while Justin Watson is on pace to return from a one-week injury absence and should cloud things up even more. Outside of Rice, the rest of the roles appear hard to count on for weekly production. The Chiefs once again lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), have an all-time great QB, and face the league’s 32nd ranked DVOA pass defense. It should be very clear how they will look to attack Denver in this game, especially with the context we discussed regarding the first matchup between these teams. Even with the relative “success” that the Broncos defense managed in that first game, a big part of that had to do with Kansas City struggles in the red zone, as they settled for two short field goals and Mahomes threw an interception inside the Denver 20 in the first quarter. Once again, the Chiefs are a creative team near the goal line, and on a short week they struggled to punch the ball in. I don’t expect a repeat of that this week. We should expect a vintage Chiefs game plan and performance in this game as they look to ice the Broncos early and get out of here in one piece ahead of next week’s massive matchup with the Dolphins.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Bengals enter this game fresh off their Week 7 bye and hope to make a run at the very competitive AFC North.
• San Francisco is looking to rebound from a tough Monday night loss on the road against the Vikings.
• Deebo Samuel is once again expected to miss this game for the 49ers, which should somewhat concentrate their touches.
• 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was put in the league’s concussion protocol on Wednesday, meaning he will almost certainly miss this game and be replaced by Sam Darnold.
• This should be the healthiest we have seen the Bengals offense all year.
• The 49ers offense has scored 34 total points the last two weeks after scoring at least 30 in each of their first five games.
• This game is likely to be decided by turnovers and explosive plays, as two well-coached teams are likely to be in store for a slugfest.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals have had an up-and-down 2023 season in the early going, but they enter Week 8 with a 3-3 record and a chance to make a statement heading into the second half of the season on the road against a very good 49ers team. The 49ers are on the ropes and simply hoping to get to their Week 9 bye week while the Bengals should be fully prepared to push them and return to their status as a team that is a tough out on a weekly basis. Joe Burrow has struggled all season with a calf injury, but he should be the healthiest he has been in 2023. Tee Higgins returned from a rib injury in Week 6 but the team appeared to try to protect him with limited usage. He should also be close to full strength after a week of rest, giving the Bengals the closest thing they’ve had to their usually elite offense so far this year.

The 49ers defense has not surrendered more than 23 points all season and has held five of their seven opponents below 20 points. That being said, a full-strength Bengals offense will be, by far, the toughest test San Francisco has had this season. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) as the Bengals have leaned heavily on Burrow to carry them due to their struggling running game and their need to play almost exclusively out of the shotgun due to his calf injury. It remains to be seen if the Bengals will be able to play under center more coming out of their bye and there is no tactical reason for Cincinnati to share that information prior to Sunday, as in either regard, they would prefer the 49ers enter the situation unsure of what to expect. Either way, the Bengals passing game is in the best shape it has been all year, while their running game has been inefficient all year and was during all of 2022 as well. After seeing Kirk Cousins dice up the 49ers pass defense on Monday night – he had 324 passing yards through three quarters – without the services of Justin Jefferson, the Bengals should enter this game very confident in their ability to move the ball through the air and also should expect that to be their best path to scoring points.

On the surface, San Francisco’s defensive DVOA metrics point to the Niners being easier to run on than throw on, but schematically and personnel-wise, they are built to be a tough run defense and the Bengals match up far better through the air. The Bengals are also likely to be aware of the fact the 49ers are built to play with a lead and that their best chance of leaving San Francisco with a victory is flipping that script and applying the pressure to Darnold and the 49ers offense. While Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has been frustrating at times during his time with the team for being too timid offensively, the Bengals’ elevated pass rate this season, finally near full-strength offensive personnel, and desired game script are all signs that this could be a week Cincinnati approaches with an aggressive mindset.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Bears visiting the Chargers in a matchup that looked a lot more exciting before Justin Fields got hurt. The game has a solid 46.5 total (the second highest of the week!) but with the Chargers favored by 8.5 so Vegas is saying this is likely to be somewhat one-sided despite the vulnerability of the Chargers defense. We have two meaningful questionable tags in Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett, both of whom got in at least some practice this week so I’m assuming they will be playing. Let’s see if we can figure this one out. 

Los Angeles

The Chargers run game is Austin Ekeler, backed up by Josh Kelley. When Kelley has been given a bell cow role this season he has struggled immensely, but either humorously or annoyingly (depending on who you played), he’s had his two best games of the season when Ekeler was active. Ekeler is very clearly the lead back, but the Chargers don’t generally let him go much above 20 touches as he’s generally around the 12-16 carry range with a healthy dose of targets. His passing game role, his talent, and the offense’s overall aptitude give him plenty of floor and ceiling on any given week, but he’s not the kind of back who you can expect to get 25+ touches very often. The good news is that in years past they didn’t give him goal line carries, but this season Ekeler has nine carries inside the 10 yard line (despite only playing three games) while Kelley has just seven. The matchup, however, is quietly more difficult than might be assumed at first glance as the Bears have actually been very good against the run, allowing an average of just 82.3 rushing yards per game despite playing from behind for most of the season. Overall, Ekeler’s talent and role make him a strong play but perhaps not quite as strong as the field might assume given that the matchup isn’t all that soft. Kelley is the quintessential “RB2 in Showdown” play as he has a real role behind Ekeler, and while he’s pricier than you’d want for an RB2, he has scores of 13.5 and 15.1 DK points this season, both of which came in games playing with Ekeler. Kelley is a bit overpriced but still belongs in player pools. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we’ll see Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer on the field for almost every snap, with Quentin Johnston in the WR3 role and then Derius Davis and perhaps Keelan Doss mixing in for a handful of snaps. Allen is a premier play who has at least nine targets in five of six games on the season, leads the team in red zone targets, and has a better matchup than Ekeler. Normally, I lean toward the running back with a solid passing game role, but I think I have a slight preference for Allen over Ekeler in this one. Palmer is interesting to me as he’s a guy who I liked at various points last year but seemed to struggle with consistency, but he really seems to have taken a step forward this year. He’s reached double digit DK points in every game since Mike Williams went down, he’s running a lot of deep routes (26+ yard catches in all four of those games), and he’s showing up in the red zone with five targets compared to Keenan’s nine. He seems to have taken a step forward as a player and his role is extremely good, playing at least 86% of the snaps since Williams was hurt. I was expecting to see him in somewhere in the $6.5k range, but $7k is reasonable – he’s more volatile than Allen, but a solid play. Poor Quentin Johnston just has not gotten it together at the NFL level, having yet to see more than three targets or more than 20 receiving yards in a game. He’s a well-regarded rookie and I expect he’ll show improvement at some point, but at $4,800 he’s clearly overpriced (I have no idea why DK raised his price from $1,600 in the last Chargers showdown . . . maybe it was his dominant one catch, 20 yard performance?). You’re really only playing him because “weird things happen in single game sample sizes and maybe he has a good game.” I’m not really on him. If in this salary range, tight end Gerald Everett is a much stronger play at $5k. He hasn’t really hit for a big game yet but his role is reasonable, averaging four targets per game and with five red zone targets. And then we come to Donald Parham, who apparently just catches touchdowns. Parham has 13 targets on the season, but seven of them have come in the red zone for three scores. Parham’s floor is dubious as he isn’t getting enough volume to put up a viable score without finding the end zone, and while earlier in the season he was priced at a level that could make a single touchdown catch likely to put him in the optimal lineup, at $4,200 he’s probably going to need more than one catch for a score, and the volume just isn’t really there for him (his best game is 14.4 Draftkings points and it took TWO touchdowns to get him there). While Parham’s red zone is robust, at his price it’s really hard for him to pay off without finding the end zone twice. 

Chicago

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 8 closes out with the Raiders visiting the Lions for a 46.5 total game in which Detroit is favored by 7.5. The Lions have averaged about 25 points per game this season but about 33 per game at home since 2022, which is insane. All teams have home/road splits, but the Detroit offense has some of the most extreme. With a sample size of over a season, I think it’s fair to say there’s some amount of validity to this and that it isn’t just random variance. The Lions are set up perfectly for an offensive explosion at home in a soft matchup, while the Raiders . . . well, they got Jimmy Garoppolo back? Yay? And at least their offense is highly concentrated? This is a fun one to dig into. 

Detriot

On the Detroit side, things are set up perfectly for a Jahmyr Gibbs explosion. The Lions are without David Montgomery, and backup Craig Reynolds played just 9% of the snaps last week while Gibbs handled 87%. Assuming the Lions play from ahead, I would imagine Reynolds has a bigger role with maybe 20-30% of the snaps, but Gibbs is still in an elite spot. The matchup is great, he’s a huge home favorite, and he has a solid passing game role. DraftKings has also somewhat comically priced him at just $8,600, which seems insane since he scored 27.6 points last week, but okay. He’s likely to be the most popular play on the slate, but it’s hard to really argue with him not being the best play on the slate unless you just want to take a “well, football is weird” stance. Reynolds at $3,200 is reasonably priced for an RB2 and he could see more run in a blowout victory, which means he correlates nicely with the Lions defense. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Lions will trot out Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and then a carousel at the WR3 position. ASRB is obviously elite and in an elite matchup. As the most expensive player on the slate, the only uncertainty I have around him is the volume in a game the Lions may well win handily. While he has seen 12 and 15 targets in two 20-6 wins against the Bucs and the Falcons, those are both matchups that skew towards attacking via the air, while this matchup is quite easy on the ground. He’s still a fine play, but with more risk associated due to his price, and he could end up only seeing 7-8 targets instead of a double digit day. Reynolds makes for a risky but reasonable upside tournament play, as he won’t be the primary target (his high on the season is seven targets), but he’s the WR2 for a high-flying offense that is at a price point that generally leads players to go underowned. He’s not a safe play, if he comes in at around 20% ownership or so, I’d estimate his chances of being in the optimal lineup are meaningfully higher than that so I would want an overweight position. At WR3, Kalif Raymond, Antoine Green, and Jameson Williams are rotating, which just saps away the upside. Williams is the most talented and I would expect his role to grow as the season goes on, but he’s already priced in anticipation of that growth as the most expensive of this trio. He’s fine if you want to take a stand that this is the week his role expands meaningfully. Raymond and Green, I will mostly be off, because neither is very good and they’re both quite low in the pecking order with the Lions heavily utilizing their running back and tight end in the passing game – both can be treated as punt plays with Raymond the preferred of the two. 

At tight end, Sam LaPorta is crushing the old “rookie tight ends can’t succeed in the NFL” stereotype, currently fourth in the league in fantasy scoring at the position. $7,400 is a little too cheap for the overall TE4 on the season. He’s second on the team in targets with 49 (WR2 Reynolds has just 30) and this is a spot I want to heavily invest in. Backup TE Brock Wright is seeing his role diminish as the Lions have been opting to use more 3-wide sets and is an MME punt play. 

Las Vegas