Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed were full participants in Wednesday’s practice, a good sign that they will both return from a missed game due to concussions.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones was listed as a limited participant again on Wednesday, just as he was all last week before missing Week 7’s game.
- Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play and combine for just 121 plays per game – the average this season is just under 130 plays per game.
- Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
- WR Randall Cobb did not practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, and Mecole Hardman was dealt back to the Chiefs, potentially opening up additional snaps for undrafted free agent rookie WR Xavier Gipson, who has been the primary slot fill-in behind Cobb to this point in the season.
How new york jets Will Try To Win ::
The Jets have run a balanced offense with a moderate pace of play in the absence of Aaron Rodgers this season, which has no indication of changing any time soon. One of the more telling splits that indicate how the Jets are likeliest to attack this spot is the drastic changes in numbers against the blitz versus when kept clean for Zach Wilson both this season and throughout his career. Wilson is a slightly below-average quarterback when kept clean but a legitimate bottom-five passer when blitzed. That’s important because Wink Martindale’s defense has blitzed over 41 percent of their defensive snaps this season. I know this, you know this – so we can bet Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett know this. That should lead to a heavy emphasis on the ground game as the Jets look to leverage their defense and string together long drives on their way to grinding out a victory. Finally, the Jets are coming off of their bye week but managed to hand the then-undefeated Eagles their first loss of the season in Week 6. They stole victory from the clutches of defeat after going down 14-3 in the second quarter, sticking to their game plan of parlaying defensive success into a methodical approach on offense. Finally, the Jets have absolutely held their own while running the proverbial gauntlet early in the season, with wins over Buffalo, Denver, and Philadelphia and narrow losses to Kansas City and New England (blown out by the Cowboys). They are now entering a time in the season when their schedule lightens up a bit.
After starting the season slowly while working his way back to full strength, Breece Hall has handled 80.8 percent of the team’s running back opportunities on snap rates of 52 and 66 percent over the previous two games. Hall’s 6.5 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per touch rank second in the league behind only De’Von Achane in Miami, while his juke rate (29.1 percent) and breakaway run rate (9.1 percent) both rank in the top six. The dude is a legitimate joystick. He has done all this despite the fifth-worst game script rating. The matchup yields the third-highest net yards before contact value on the slate against a Giants defense that has surrendered a massive 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backs. Dalvin Cook has played just 20 total offensive snaps the past two games in a light change of pace role, ceding passing down duties to Michael Carter.
The Jets have run their offense with above average rates of 12-personnel and sparse utilization of 21-personnel, leaving their offense based almost entirely out of 11- and 12-personnel. The biggest issue with this Hackett offense has been a very vanilla offensive design through the air. The good news is that the bulk of the pass offense is concentrated on one man, second-year alpha wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson holds an elite 32.5 percent team target market share and a bonkers 54.5 percent red zone target market share, seeing 9.2 targets per game this season. Low efficiency and few scoring opportunities have kept his season-high to just 17.0 DK points, but the underlying metrics hint at a potential breakout game or two the rest of the way. Allen Lazard is the only other pass-catcher to operate in a near-every-down role, but he carries modest marks in target market share (13.6 percent) and targets per route run rate (12.4 percent), carrying the most utility for his run-blocking abilities. Finally, Xavier Gipson could be thrust into an increased role with Mecole Hardman no longer in town and slot man Randall Cobb looking on the worse side of questionable with a shoulder injury. Gipson, the team’s primary kick returner, is a touchdown-waiting-to-happen type player with elite vision and burst with the ball in his hands. He has seen just one target on the season, so this could be a case of the volume simply flowing to Hall and Wilson at an increased rate, but he’s an interesting upside piece at likely low ownership this weekend for loose MME pools.
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