Kickoff Sunday, Oct 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
19) at

Titans (

Over/Under 35.5


Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Wake up Grandpa! This game features two of the lowest teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE).
  • The Titans are the slowest team in the league, while the Falcons are the run-heaviest team, leaving limited paths to DFS fireworks 
  • Arthur Smith spent his entire career coaching in Tennessee before being hired by the Falcons and built his team in the Titans’ image 
  • Both teams are much stronger at stopping the run than the pass, but neither coach is likely to change their approach on offense.
  • Bijan Robinson saw a $1,300 price decrease on DK and is priced $2,000 below where he was Week 1. 
  • Desmond Ridder and Drake London remain stubbornly priced below their upside. 
  • Derrick Henry has moved into a timeshare; with snap counts of 53% // 62% // 59% the past three weeks, he’s overpriced for his role. 
  • The Titans are likely set to trot out some combination of Malik Willis and Will Levis at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill (ankle) expected to be sidelined.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The 4-3 Falcons come into Week 8 sitting atop the horrific NFC South. They are one of only two teams in the league (Steelers) with a negative point differential (-18) and a winning record. Smith’s Falcons have been hard to watch for most of the year, but they aren’t going to feel like failures inside their own locker room. The Falcons have one of the clearest identities in the league. They are dead last in PROE and have shown that they’re only willing to open their offense if forced to chase points. The Falcons are going to play behind their elite offensive line (3rd-ranked per PFF), highlighted by center Drew Dalman’s league-leading run-blocking grade. The Falcons are going to run. 

Smith spent a decade as an assistant coach with the Titans. In fact, he never coached anywhere other than Tennessee before being hired as Atlanta’s head coach in 2021. Since the Titans won the Super Bowl several times in the past decade, Smith decided to build the Titans 2.0 in Atlanta. Wait, what’s that? The Titans have never won the Super Bowl? Then why would Smith want to copy a formula that isn’t working? Because his playing background is as an offensive lineman and he’s a typical uncreative NFL head coach who would rather lean into a 1990s play style that he knows than risk the perils of throwing the ball. Oh, duh, thanks for clearing that up, inner voice. 

The Titans are stout against the run (4th in DVOA) but can’t stop anyone through the air (26th in DVOA). Do the 1990s care? Does Smith’s mustache care?  Emmitt Smith would have run for 200 on these bums. The Falcons are a “do what we do” offense, and what they do is run the ball. That is unlikely to change, even against a defense that invites the pass. The Falcons have become one of the easiest teams in the league to predict, since they aren’t going to change their style of play based on their opponent. Smith’s game planning is like talking to the Rock in the 90s.

 “Coach Vrabel, where is your defense weakness?” asks Smith. 

“Well, we are pretty tough against the run, but can be beaten by the pa….” 

“IT DOESN’T MATTER WHERE YOUR DEFENSE IS WEAK,” shouts Smith. “I’m gonna take Robinson, shine him up real nice and good, turn that SOB sideways, and run him right up your candy ass!”

How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

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