XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 begins with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs for a game with a 49 point total and Kansas City favored by 10.5. Ohhh boy. I guess we know how the field is going to build for this one! On the one hand, we have a Broncos defense that has given up at least 28 points in four of their five games played so far (but the Denver offense has also been reasonably capable, averaging just over 24 points per game themselves), while on the other hand, we have a Chiefs team that has not quite found their offensive rhythm yet (just one game over 27 points, but still averaging a solid 25.6 points per game) but boasting a stout (and often underrated) defense allowing just 16 points per game. The Broncos are also on the road, and Arrowhead is a tough matchup any time, but especially when the Chiefs D is playing well. This is a really interesting one to try to pick apart because of how many ways the game could go, as well as how spread out both teams are (interesting is one word but frustrating could be another). Let’s try to figure it out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATES:

1. Greg Dulcich

First, the easy update: Greg Dulcich is going to return for Denver, which makes Adam Trautman an even worse play than he already was. Even if Dulcich is on a snap count, Trautman’s role was so weak already that any reduction is a death knell. Can you still use him in tournaments? I suppose, I mean anyone who’s on the field can get lucky and catch a touchdown. Dulcich himself is at least interesting at $4,800 . . . if he steps into a full role, he’s a viable piece (but not an outstanding one). There’s risk here because who knows if he’ll play a full complement of snaps, but he at least he has a meaningful per-target upside.

2. Weather

The second impactful update is that the weather for this game is looking to be pretty gross. It looks unlikely to rain much during the game but the really impactful thing in NFL DFS is wind, and we have a good amount of it. It looks like expecting sustained winds at 15mph or higher with gusts up to 30 mph. 15 mph sustained is when we start to see wind impact passing production so we have to at least consider the impact of weather in this one. This isn’t a hurricane, so there’s no need to just X out deeper aDOT guys like MVS, Watson, or Mims but it is windy enough to have an impact. In cash games, this significantly bumps up short-area guys like Toney and Rice as well as the running backs. In tournaments, the same applies, but also keep in mind that people tend to wildly overreact to weather. Deeper passing can still succeed in somewhat windy conditions so it’s worth still considering the higher aDOT guys like Sutton, Watson, and MVS, etc. Their chance of hitting their ceiling is reduced but my general experience is that the impact to their ownership is greater than the impact to their expected fantasy production. We want to react smartly to weather but we don’t want to panic or overreact – this looks like a game with windy conditions but not catastrophic, so be smart about how much you change your game plan in response to the wind.

Kansas City

On the Chiefs side, their running back usage can be maddening. Lead running back Isiah Pacheco has topped out at 60% of the snaps this year though that’s still come along with some solid opportunity counts of 18, 23, and 17 (as well as 12 and 14 in Weeks 1 and 2). Pacheco is talented and the matchup is awesome against a Broncos defense that is AVERAGING 187 rushing yards per game allowed (lol) with over 100 rushing yards allowed to four of their five opponents so far. Talent, check. Matchup, check. Opportunity is like . . . a half check. Pacheco’s the lead back but we’ve seen that A) being the lead back on the Chiefs does not always result in large workloads, even when they’re playing from ahead, and B) the Chiefs are consistently near the top of the NFL in pass rate over expectation, which dings both his usage and his touchdown equity. Mahomes has roughly double the pass attempts inside the 10 yard line compared to Pacheco’s number of carries from inside the 10. At $9,400, Pacheco is a bit tough to click on with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Russell Wilson priced above him, which makes him a very interesting tournament play if you want to bet on the Chiefs scoring on the ground. His floor is a little shaky for his price, but his ceiling is up there amongst the highest on the slate and I expect his ownership will not get out of hand despite being a huge home favorite running back in a good matchup. Jerick McKinnon has the RB2 role but it’s more of a passing down specialist, with just seven carries on the year so far. McKinnon, as we’ve discussed before, was heavily involved in the Chiefs red zone usage scheme last year but that seems to have dropped off this season as he has just two red zone targets (both in Week 3, both caught for touchdowns), and while that could happen again, there isn’t yet any indication that the Chiefs are intentionally focusing on him in the red zone on a consistent game-to-game basis. That makes him an extremely fragile play at $5,200. RB3 Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a shot-in-the-dark play who sees very little usage – you’re betting on a blowout (CEH saw, by far, his most opportunities of the season when the Chiefs demolished the Bears 41-10 in Week 3) or a Pacheco injury to make him relevant.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Chiefs passing game, as always, is “Travis Kelce and then good luck figuring it out.” Except, Kelce is questionable with an ankle injury. It’s a low ankle sprain which caused him to miss a bit of time in last week’s game, though he did return and played the rest of the game out so it’s probably not a huge concern but the Chiefs could consider taking a cautious approach with their superstar tight end in a game that they should be able to win handily. One thing to consider is even if Kelce is active, will he have a full role? Generally, I assume if a player is active and I have no specific information to the contrary, that he’s fully healthy and will play his normal role. But, it’s worth mentioning in Showdown here because he’s likely to be one of the two or three highest owned plays in the game. The Chiefs could feasibly have him active, and see how things go, but be quick to pull back on him if he shows any signs of struggle with the ankle or just rest him if they get up big early. Consider Kelce as an elite play (duh) but with a higher than normal level of risk. 

As far as the rest of the Chiefs, eesh. Rashee Rice has led the pass catching group in non-Kelce production so far and has a whopping eight red zone targets (Kelce has eight, nobody else has more than four), but after seeing his snaps ascending in Weeks 3 and 4 they dropped back down to just 30% last week. Eek. Rice isn’t playing a ton but he is at least earning targets when he’s on the field with at least five targets in four of five games, and eight of his 24 targets have come in the red zone . . . aha, maybe this is where the Chiefs schemed red zone usage has gone! It does look like Rice is a guy they’re already trusting heavily when close to the goal line. $6,400 is a bit of a tough price for a guy playing this few snaps, and I expect the field will click on him plenty just because he’s the Chief who’s done the most in the passing game besides Kelce. As with all the Chiefs, his role is volatile. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the Chiefs in snaps played but has just 11 targets on the season to show for it, Skyy Moore is next but with only 17 targets, while Justin Watson remains a glaring value at just $2,200 despite being third of the WRs in snaps and second in fantasy point production per game. Oh, and then we still have Kadarius Toney and even Justyn Ross playing some snaps. Holy cow. We also have two backup tight ends in Noah Gray and Blake Bell (Bell is mostly a blocker with three targets on the year, but Gray has 2+ targets in every game). I always hate breaking down the Chiefs because there is so little to point at where fantasy production is likely to come from and they spread the ball around SO much. The volume gets spread out that outside of a broken play or long bomb, no pass catcher besides Kelce really has a realistic shot at reaching 100 yards, so we’re really just looking for touchdowns. Rice is the best bet for them, with Moore next in red zone targets followed by MVS. My general sense of this pass catching group: Kelce is awesome. Rice has the best touchdown odds of everyone else and is fine. Watson is a value at just $2,200 and his deep role gives him upside. MVS is on the field a ton but has really not produced at all since joining the Chiefs, so while he will probably project well at his $3,400 price, he’s a boom/bust tourney option to me. Toney is still seeing a lot of usage when on the field but isn’t on the field much. Gray is overpriced but that could drive down his ownership and make him interesting if Kelce plays but is limited. Ross and Bell are MME dart throws. Good luck with the Chiefs receiving corps.

Denver

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Another week, another London game. The NFL sure is trying to get (real) football over to Europe. They might be more successful if they made some more exciting matchups, but then again, I suppose Europeans are used to watching a sport that goes for hours with nobody scoring. Anyhow, this game has a 42 point total with Baltimore favored by four.

Tennessee

We’ll start with the Titans. After having an absolute stranglehold on the Titans rushing work for years, Derrick Henry is . . . fading a bit? He’s played just under 60% of the snaps so far this season with a high of 71% in Week 2. Backup Tyjae Spears has played about 50% of the snaps (just 19 fewer than Henry through five games). Henry can still pile up the kind of workloads we’re used to seeing from him in close games, as he has games with opportunity counts of 29 and 23, but also games of 18, 11, and 16. Spears’ emergence hasn’t taken away Henry’s ceiling but it’s added more volatility to his role as he has seen four-plus targets in five of five games and is averaging about five carries per game as well. We’ve also seen Henry struggle with efficiency so far this year, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry against Spears’ 5.8 (albeit in a much smaller sample). Then again, it isn’t November yet, and for whatever reason Henry has always been something of a slow starter. I think the takeaway is that Spears has a real role in this offense and that Henry’s role can still be big, depending on the game, but he’s no longer the near-lock for 20+ opportunities that we’ve been used to from past seasons. The matchup here is not great against a Ravens team that has only allowed over 100 rushing yards to one opponent so far with an average of 91 opposing rushing yards per game, but they also haven’t faced many highly effective rushing attacks yet (Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are not what you would call high-caliber run games). As I see it, Henry’s role is more volatile than normal but he’s also $10,000, which is about as cheap as we ever see him in Showdown. He’s a fine, high-ceiling tournament option but with a shakier than normal floor. Spears has a real role here, but at $7,400, he’s overpriced for an RB2 workload, and it’s hard to see him getting the kind of volume he needs to smash unless something happens to Henry. So absent that, he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown in order to pay off. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Titans passing game is a tough one to figure out because it hasn’t generated many good fantasy scores at all, and the Ravens defense is legit, allowing just 175 passing yards per game so far. DeAndre Hopkins is the primary receiver and he has a healthy 42 targets in five games despite this being a relatively low passing volume offense. It’s also worth noting that after years of thinking of Hopkins as a short-area receiver who needs massive volume in order to find upside, the Titans seem to be using him differently than we’ve seen in the past. Hopkins has 558 air yards so far, good for seventh in the NFL, with an aDOT of 13.3 yards (24th) and nine deep targets (sixth). The Titans aren’t just using him around the line of scrimmage, which unlocks more upside. The downside for Hopkins is the tough matchup, and well, being a Titan. At $9,400, he’s somewhat overpriced for his most likely outcome, but his new role does unlock a ceiling that we’ve rarely seen from him in the last couple of seasons. Behind Hopkins are Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (who I’m just going to call NWI for short), Chris Moore, and then Kyle Philips should rotate in a bit. NWI looks like a glaring value here – he actually leads all Titans pass catchers in snaps played on the season and while his raw point ceiling is not enormous, he’s only $2,600 and he’s put up scores that would likely be optimal at that salary in three of five games so far this year. He’s not a target hog, but he’s a reasonably capable NFL receiver and he’s second on the team in red zone targets with four (Hopkins is first with six). He’ll be popular, but he’s still a very strong option who is just mispriced for his role. At minimum salary, Moore also looks mispriced for someone who should play at least 50% of the snaps – he’s their primary deep threat guy and he only has four catches on the year but they have gone for 8, 33, 44, and 49 yards. At $200, he belongs in tournament player pools but just know his floor is zero (but his ceiling is probably something like 12-15 points if he gets one long catch and it happens to be a touchdown). 

At tight end, we have one of last year’s punt TE darlings in Chig Okonkwo, backed up by Trevon Wesco and Josh Whyle. Okonkwo has so far failed to build off of his promising 2022 campaign and while he did see a very robust nine targets last week (in a very good matchup), he only turned that into a 5/33/0 line. He’s talented and will almost certainly have some good games this year, but there’s nothing to indicate that this matchup is likely to be his breakout. I’ll have him in my player pool but will probably just try to match the field in exposure and move on. Wesco is a blocker who has run just six pass routes on the year so far, and Whyle is a TE2 type who should have at least some receiving role and can be used as a touchdown-or-bust tourney play.

Baltimore

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Washington’s defense has been shredded in recent weeks and is most vulnerable via the pass, but Atlanta’s offense is built around the run.
• Only one Falcons game this season has combined for more than 40 points while the Commanders have been a part of three games through five weeks that featured 60 or more points.
• Sam Howell leads the league in sacks taken through five weeks, but the Falcons defense ranks last in the league in sacks.
• Atlanta ranks top 10 in the NFL in man coverage rate and the Washington receivers have struggled so far this season.
• The Falcons have not had much success through the air this season, but Washington is by far the worst pass defense they have seen to date.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders have thrown the ball at the second highest rate in the NFL through five weeks. A big part of that statistic has been game script, as they have fallen behind several times this season including last week’s embarrassing loss to the Bears. However, they also have shown a willingness to let Sam Howell throw the ball around the yard and are not afraid to play to a matchup’s path of least resistance. This week, they face a Falcons team that ranks seventh in the NFL in run defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Commanders have scored at least 20 points in four of five games this season, with the lone exception being their drubbing at the hands of the Bills in sub-optimal weather conditions. The Falcons defense is solid, but not on the same level as Buffalo.

Head coach Ron Rivera would love to have a team built on their defense, but so far this year their defense has been extremely disappointing. At this point, the Commanders have to be aware that they are going to need to score 24 or more points to win most weeks. The Cardinals in Week 1 are the only team that Washington has held in check and this Falcons team is more efficient than given credit for. I would expect the Commanders to open this game with a balanced approach but to be somewhat aggressive to try to get on top and/or stay within striking distance early. Sam Howell has taken an egregious amount of sacks this season and the Falcons defense ranks fifth in the NFL in both sacks and QB pressure rate. There will almost certainly be a priority for Washington to get the ball out of Howell’s hands quickly with their running backs, tight ends, and Curtis Samuel likely to be targeted often, rather than challenging the Falcons very talented perimeter cornerbacks. AJ Terrell is a former first round pick who often takes on shadow coverage of the opponent’s top wide receiver. Opposite him is Dee Alford, who ranks third out of 68 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade. The Commanders have had a broad target distribution and that should continue this week with the perimeter receivers being in a tough matchup and Howell needing to get rid of the ball quickly. The Commanders would likely prefer to let Brian Robinson carry the load but their defense has not shown the ability to let them have that type of game script this year. Robinson tends to dominate the workload on early downs and when the Commanders are ahead, while Antonio Gibson works in a pretty even split with him in negative game scripts.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Justin Jefferson hit injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury – he’ll miss the next four weeks. Quick side note there – I don’t personally believe he would pull some “our team is out of it and Kirk Cousins got traded, I’ll prolong this absence” type antics.
• K.J. Osborn has run 194 routes this season (seventh most in the league), 121 of which have come from the slot. That means we’re likely to see both Jordan Addison and Brandon Powell involved from 11-personnel – the big question is whether it’s Addison or Powell from heavy sets (21- and 12-personnel).
• The Bears are likely to be in some deep water at running back this week – more on this below.

How minnesota will try to Win ::

The Vikings continue to play with extreme pace (third fastest overall pace at 25.8 seconds per play) and extreme pass rates (first in pass attempts per game at 40.8 and fourth in pass rate over expectation) on offense while Brian Flores does his best Wink Martindale impression on defense, leading the league in blitz rate by more than 10 percent (lolz) but changing course from Martindale’s man-heavy ways to run league-average rates of man and zone behind. While not necessarily successful in either defensive alignment, they have been far worse when in man, allowing 9.7 yards per target in that coverage compared to 7.1 when in zone. Considering teams typically play heavier rates of zone coverage against the Bears due to Fields’ mobility (and other rushing quarterbacks), expect that to be the percentage solution here.

Cam Akers has played exactly 29 percent of the team’s snaps in each week since being acquired prior to Week 4, but his opportunity share shot up in his second time out for the Vikings. That said, the negative game environment against the Chiefs could be the primary causal factor there as he saw exactly seven opportunities in each game. The negative game environment last week also led to reduced rates of 12-personnel and a larger emphasis on 11-personnel, which included higher utilization of fullback C.J. Ham in the backfield with no other back, reducing Alexander Mattison’s snap rate to just 51 percent. It doesn’t seem like a full takeover from Akers is imminent here, but we could see a continued emphasis on Ham in game environments where the Vikings find themselves behind. Contrary to popular belief, the Bears run defense is non-terrible, allowing just 1.17 yards before contact and 3.7 yards per carry this season. Consider the Bears a pass-funnel defense until further notice.

Continuing that discussion, Chicago has yielded 7.7 net yards per pass attempt this season, which ranks second worst in the league behind only the Broncos (who are a true “attack them however you want” and less “pass-funnel,” but that’s neither here nor there). The Bears are in man coverage at the fourth highest rate this season and allow a startling 9.0 yards per target against when in zone, second worst in the league. Gone are Jefferson’s 24 percent targets per route run rate against zone coverage this season, and it isn’t likely to be K.J. Osborn that soaks those looks up considering his paltry 0.22 fantasy points per route run against zone coverages this year. Addison has a 16.9 percent targets per route run rate and 0.39 fantasy points per route run against zone coverages this year and stands as the player likeliest to see the largest boost to his counting stats and utilization rate in the absence of Jefferson. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is a natural zone-beater in his current role and stands to see a slight uptick in targets per route run rate without Jefferson in the lineup, but a 6.6 aDOT with just one deep target on the season leaves a thin needle to thread against any opponent, largely dependent on his ability to rack up targets and find the end zone (potentially more than once). Finally, Brandon Powell should step into an increased role from 11-personnel for the Vikings this week, and his familiarity with head coach Kevin O’Connell should keep him on the field from three-wide sets.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• We don’t yet have an injury report from the Seahawks coming off their bye, but DK Metcalf did not practice on Monday when the team returned to the field.
• Quarterback Geno Smith was forced from the team’s Week 4 win over the Giants with a knee injury but appears set to play against the Bengals.
• The most significant injury concerns from Seattle are in their secondary and along their offensive line – expect updates later in the week.
• Geno Smith ranks dead last in IAY/PA this season, likely attributable to an offensive line struggling through injuries and allowing pressure at the second-highest rate in the league.
• Kenneth Walker gets the best matchup on the ground of the young season against a Bengals defense allowing 1.62 yards before contact per carry (30th in the league).
• Tee Higgins is an interesting case study in pain management, as his rib injury is highly unlikely to get worse by playing but is equally as likely to be extremely painful whenever he is touched in the torso. That said, the team did not send him to injured reserve, keeping the possibility of him being active on game day open.
• Is Joe Burrow now fully healthy? There is no way of knowing for sure. Still, the Cincinnati signal-caller remained exclusively in the gun against the Cardinals but did demonstrate a little more escapability and mobility when under pressure.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The best way to describe how the Seahawks try to win games is to relate them to a battering ram. They will run their offense their way, which typically involves elevated rush rates, moderate pace of play, and controlled game environments with an emphasis on execution. The primary focus of their offense in game environments they can control is to chip away at their opponent, opening up downfield passing. That said, one of the more significant changes this season when compared to past offenses is their willingness to open up the aggression should the game environment call for it, utilizing pace (seventh-ranked 27.7 seconds per play) and above-average pass rates (eighth-ranked pass rate over expectation) as needed. This is evident by looking at their game logs, with just 55 offensive plays run from scrimmage in their lone convincing win (24-3 in Week 4 against the Giants) and an average of 66 offensive plays run from scrimmage between a 13-30 loss to the Rams in Week 1 (51 offensive plays), 37-31 overtime win against the Lions in Week 2 (72 offensive plays), and 37-27 shootout win against the Panthers in Week 3 (75 offensive plays). Even so, expect the game plan to involve elevated rush rates to begin and play action passing built around that, with the understanding that the offense is now willing to alter course in the second half this season should the game environment call for it.

Running back Kenneth Walker has been held to lead back status instead of workhorse status, which makes sense considering previous coach tendencies amongst offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Pete Carroll. His 59.7 percent snap rate ranks 16th in the league, and his 67.3 percent opportunity share ranks 14th. Furthermore, and in true Seattle fashion, Walker has been in a route at a low 30.2 percent clip, relegating him to yardage-and-touchdown status. His speed (4.38) will always lend itself to explosive plays and breakaway runs, of which he already has four through four games, meaning the ceiling is most certainly still there. He also holds the most evaded tackles in the league while playing four games, compared to five for most other backs. The Seattle offensive line has been a relative infringement, generating just 1.21 yards before contact per attempt. That has left the bulk of the honus on Walker to generate on his own, which he largely has done to this point in the season. That said, he now gets a matchup with a Bengals defensive front, allowing the third most yards before contact at 1.62 and the third most yards per carry at 5.3. This is a good spot on paper for Walker to get going. Backing up Walker as the strict change of pace back is rookie Zach Charbonnet, who has been between 24 and 26 percent snap rates in three of four games this season. DeeJay Dallas is head-scratchingly still a part of the offense, primarily reserved for clear passing situations and the two-minute offense. Finally, Walker has five rushing scores across the Seahawks’ three wins compared to zero in their only loss, meaning Walker likely goes as the offense goes moving forward.

The offense utilizes extreme rates of 12-personnel in game environments they can control, departing only from that setup in their Week 1 loss to the Rams. They have averaged a 49.33 percent 12-personnel rate in their three games since Week 2, which has had the largest impact on rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s snap rate to date. Alpha wide receiver DK Metcalf has played just 71 percent of the team’s offensive snaps over the previous two games, which could be related to a rib injury he picked up in the team’s Week 2 overtime win over the Lions. Tyler Lockett has also seen his snap rates drop during the previous two games, averaging just 75 percent of the team’s offensive snaps during that stretch. JSN appears to remain capped at 60 percent of the offensive snaps, again attributable to the team’s elevated 12-personnel rates. The snap-rate dip for Lockett and Metcalf have benefited undrafted free agent Jake Bobo, who has averaged just under 40 percent of the team’s offensive snaps during the most recent two-game stretch. In his 2022 career resurgence year, Geno Smith held respectable marks in intended air yards per pass attempts (IAY/PA – 7.6) and completed air yards per pass attempt (CAY/PA – 4.4) but has struggled to begin the 2023 season (league-worst 6.2 IAY/PA and 22nd-ranked 3.6 CAY/PA). That dip is likely attributable to a 31st-ranked pressure rate allowed from the offensive line that continues to struggle through injury. A matchup with a Bengals defense generating pressure at a below-average 21.7 percent clip could allow Geno to attack more aggressively downfield.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell got in his first limited session on Thursday after missing the previous two games (and Week 2) and being out on Wednesday, keeping the door cracked open for a potential return to action in Week 6.
• C Joel Bitonio, TE David Njoku, and QB Deshaun Watson have yet to practice for the Browns this week (as of Thursday) – current reports are that Watson is unlikely to play after also missing Week 4 (subsequent DNPs coming off of a bye week are not ideal).
• This game pits the two top defenses by points allowed per game and the first (Cleveland) and third (San Francisco) by yardage allowed per game this season.
• The Browns rank first in plays per game, largely induced by their suffocating defense, while the 49ers rank 18^th in plays per game, largely suppressed by their elite offensive efficiency and splash play generation on offense.
• Fifth-round rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson drew the start for the Browns in Week 4 and is likely to do so again should Watson be unable to go (appears likely).
• Brandon Aiyuk leads all pass-catchers in fantasy points per route run against man coverage in 2023 and the Browns run man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate.

How San Francisco will try to Win ::

It’s been business as usual for the 49ers through the first five weeks. They are one of only two teams that remains undefeated (joining the Eagles), they lead the league in points allowed per game on defense at a tiny 13.6, and they rank second in the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game, behind only the otherworldly Dolphins. What’s not to like about this team right now? From an organizational standpoint, head coach Kyle Shanahan continues to operate one of the more forward-leaning offenses, one that is now coming into its own and has players capable of beating both man and zone coverage on the ground and through the air. The addition of Christian McCaffrey last season gave the 49ers four elite-level athletes to build around, joining wide receivers Deebo Samuel (the motion man) and Brandon Aiyuk (the man-beater) and tight end George Kittle (the most well-rounded tight end in the game). Jim Schwartz’s man-heavy defensive scheme is playing like a true top unit in the league, but this 49ers team has the pieces to exploit those aggressive tendencies, particularly considering opposing quarterback Deshaun Watson appears unlikely to play in Week 6 (failure of the Cleveland offense is likely to lead to shorter fields and increased time of possession for the 49ers).

McCaffrey has played 85 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in three of five games this season, one of which came with a healthy Elijah Mitchell. The two games where he failed to eclipse an 85 percent snap rate were a 30-12 drubbing of the Giants in Week 3 and the team’s recent 42-10 drubbing of the Cowboys in Week 5. In other words, McCaffrey has played in a true workhorse role in all but the most positive game environments this season, with an absurd 88 percent of the running back touches to come from players other than McCaffrey coming late in the third quarter or in the fourth quarter of blowout wins. It’s almost laughable looking at McCaffrey’s underlying metrics this season – he has 32 red zone opportunities through five games, 99 carries and 24 targets, a 70.8 percent route participation rate, and five breakaway runs. And yet, the dynamism of the 49ers offense has meant he has seen a stacked box on just 14.1 percent of his carries (26^th in the league). He’s just that dude. The Browns have held opposing backs to a minuscule 3.2 yards per carry this season (tops in the league), so the matchup is not perfect, but he is that dude.

The Browns rank second in net yards allowed per pass attempt at 4.2, which is truly remarkable considering they rank first in yards allowed per carry as well. This defense is no joke. That said, the 49ers have no less than four players who perform at elite levels against man coverage, and the Browns find themselves in man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (second only to the Cowboys, whom the 49ers just shredded in Week 5). Brandon Aiyuk has an absurd 29.2 percent targets per route run rate against man coverage and leads all receivers in fantasy points per route run against man coverage this season. We also all just saw what tight end George Kittle can do against man coverage, scoring three touchdowns on as many receptions in Week 5 against the Cowboys. The player most likely to see adverse effects from the matchup is Deebo Samuel, who ranks 55^th in fantasy points per route run against man this season. Finally, McCaffrey should also remain heavily involved through the air but gets a tough matchup against an elite linebacking corps.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Dameon Pierce is underpriced for his role 
• Nico Collins is underpriced for his role 
• Robert Woods has seen 40 targets through five weeks 
• Alvin Kamara is the engine of the Saints offense 
• Derek Carr looked healthier last week 
• The Saints defense runs a complex scheme that could confuse C.J Stroud 

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The 3-2 Saints come into Week 6 off a dominant 34-0 performance on the road against the Patriots. The 34 points against an injured but still quality defense looks like an offensive explosion, but the Saints defense dominated the game. The Saints defense generated a pick-six and two sacks, but more than anything, they didn’t let the Patriots get first downs. The Pats finished with a puny 156 total yards. The Saints defense isn’t elite at anything but is good at everything. Dennis Allen comes from the defensive side of the ball, and it makes sense that his team would take on a “win on defense” mindset, which is exactly how this team is trying to get it done on Sundays.

The Saints season-long outlook was improved when Derrick Carr, albeit on only 26 attempts, looked much healthier than the previous week. They have played up-tempo, pass-leaning football when everyone is healthy and the game is close. However, they are trying to win on the defensive side of the ball. Their pass attempt totals of 26//39//34//37//33 are interesting compared to the game script. The 26 attempts came in a lopsided win, the 39 attempts came in a lopsided loss, and the moderate attempt totals came in one-score games. The Saints are a game-flow-dependent team willing to pass but would rather throw under 35 times and play good defense. The “run funnel” Texans are one of the most obvious spots to attack on the ground. “Run funnel” is in quotes because after getting trampled on the ground to start the year, the Texans held the vaunted Falcons RBs to 86 yards on 32 carries. A stunning 2.7 YPC. The Saint offensive line has been poor overall (22nd ranked per PFF) but played well last week, highlighted by Erik McCoy’s highest grade among all offensive linemen. Is this a weakness-on-weakness or strength-on-strength matchup? Pete Carmichael Jr. isn’t likely to care. He runs a bland offense that uses play-action and pre-snap motion at some of the lowest rates in the league. He isn’t the type of offensive coordinator to adjust for specific opponents, and it’s reasonable to expect another game of moderately leaning pass rates while hoping the defense can be dominant.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The biggest injury news from this one is clearly Anthony Richardson, who was placed on injured reserve Wednesday with an AC joint sprain that is going to cost him at least four weeks of his rookie season – Richardson has now finished just one of the four games he started this year, missing another with a concussion.
• Tight end Mo Alie-Cox did not practice Wednesday after suffering a concussion in Week 5.
• Zay Jones did not practice with a knee injury sustained in Week 5 – he appears legitimately questionable to suit up early in the week.
• Shaquille Leonard and Kwity Paye returned to practice Wednesday after missing Week 5 with concussions.
• Jonathan Taylor immediately returned to the lineup in Week 5 after inking a three-year extension with the Colts and should continue to see his snap rate and opportunity share increase with time.

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

Indianapolis remains top five in the league in pace of play (26.2 seconds per play) but has fallen to bottom five in pass rate over expectation (PROE). The now 3-2 Colts played the Jaguars tough in Week 1, beat the Texans on the road in Week 2, beat the Ravens on the road in Week 3 in overtime, lost to the Rams in overtime in Week 4, and beat the Titans in Week 5 – all while having to alter their game plan in two of those games due to the early departure of Richardson (he also left in Week 1 but that departure happened just before the two-minute warning in the second half) and starting their backup quarterback in another. They now prepare to face the Jaguars for the second time this season with their backup quarterback, with the winner of this game left alone atop the AFC South through a third of the season. When we get later in the season we often talk about the additional magnitude of the games with playoff implications on the line. This game carries about as many playoff implications as you will find in Week 6 of an NFL season and should be viewed as a relative must-win for both sides. Shane Steichen has largely approached games by attempting to win in the trenches but has also largely been unable to fully unleash his offensive designs while dealing with a rookie quarterback and so many moving pieces from which to build around through the first five weeks. These next four weeks should be rather telling from an organizational standpoint, as they will (hopefully) give Steichen some stability to plan and manage around. In these two teams’ first meeting, Colts quarterbacks attempted 39 passes compared to 16 running backs carries and 10 totes from Richardson. In the Colts’ Week 3 win over the Ravens (a similar setup defensively – pass funnel and elevated zone rates), Gardner Minshew attempted 44 passes to 35 running back carries and did not see a rush attempt himself. Small sample size alert, but we should expect a baseline of 36-to-40 pass attempts for Minshew in this spot. The matchup tilts to the air, with the Jaguars defense allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (10^th) but allowing 6.9 net yards per pass attempt (28^th).

Let’s make this very clear up front – we have no clue what the running back opportunity split is going to look like between Taylor and Moss this week. What we know is that Taylor’s Week 5 game action was his first game snaps since Week 14 of the 2022 season and we have indication from Steichen that the team intends to gradually ramp up his involvement, with the only timeframe given being a month. Now, those are just words, but we also saw them hold Taylor to just 10 offensive snaps in Week 5 (side note – the outrage from the fantasy community over this made me chuckle, as Steichen literally told us this was likely to be the case, but that’s neither here nor there). I think its fair to say Moss is unlikely to garner an 80 percent snap rate or 78 percent opportunity share here (23 carries and two targets compared to six carries and one target for Taylor), but the actual split is completely up in the air at this point for Week 6. The matchup on the ground is non-ideal against a Jaguars defense facing the fourth-fewest rush attempts per game against (22.0, behind just San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Detroit), so the snap-rate split might not matter here.

Minshew does not bring the same profile to the table as the departing Richardson, the former much more pocket passer and timing quarterback than the latter. On Minshew’s 83 pass attempts this season, Michael Pittman has garnered a target share of 28.9 percent, while rookie Josh Downs checks in at 24.1 percent. From a fantasy perspective, it’s the same story for both of these guys – modest aDOT (7.3 for Pittman and 6.3 for Downs) and modest yards-per-route-run values (1.58 for Pittman and 1.22 for Downs) means a lot has to go right for either of them to return a viable GPP score. Alec Pierce remains the Z-type, downfield threat, safety manipulator of this offense with a robust 17.7 aDOT, but he’s been utilized in full-on MVS fashion this season with a putrid 9.5 percent targets-per-route-run rate (TPPR). That latter figure ranks 100^th in the league – there are 32 NFL teams, each with three primary wide receivers, meaning there are WR4s with a higher TPRR than Pierce this season. That is something that theoretically could change in an instant, considering this offense appears to have been simplified by Steichen to make things as easy as possible on his rookie quarterback, but those are not great numbers, friends. Finally, the Jaguars have faced 36.2 pass attempts per game this season (11^th most), largely by filtering the opposition to the air via a stout run defense (as opposed to consistently putting teams in negative game environments and forcing them to play in catch-up mode).

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Miles Sanders did not practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury – he has seemingly picked up new ailments with each game played this week.
• S Xavier Woods did not practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury.
• CB Donte Jackson returned to a full showing Wednesday after missing Week 4 with a shoulder injury.
• RB De’Von Achane was placed on IR, while Jeff Wilson returned to a limited session Wednesday after having his 21-day practice window opened.
• There is likely to be significant interest in the Miami backfield this week, and for good reason. 

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Frank Reich’s Panthers have run an uptempo offense (28.3 seconds per play) with extreme pass rates (40.4 pass attempts per game behind the 20th-ranked pass rate over expectation), but a lot of that has largely been due to necessity after playing through countless negative game scripts while sitting at an 0-5 record. In other words, the Carolina offense has been influenced primarily by their defense, which has allowed 1.46 yards before contact, given up 4.9 yards per carry, is tied with the Giants for most rushing scores allowed through five weeks, and allowed 6.1 net yards per pass attempt. The Panthers run zone coverages at one of the highest rates in the league but have ceded the fifth most yards per coverage snap from zone this season. To summarize, the Panthers have not been able to stick to their game plans due to a defense that has not yet performed to their potential, effectively forcing extreme pass rates as games have progressed – not the best formula for a team with a rookie quarterback.

Miles Sanders missed practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury that he sustained in Week 5. Sanders has seemingly been on the injury report every week since the season started and now appears truly questionable for Week 6. Chuba Hubbard is the only other running back to see offensive snaps to this point in the season and would likely jump into a “lead back plus” role for the Panthers should Sanders be unable to go. The Dolphins have held the opposition to just 1.22 yards before contact and 4.0 yards per carry this season under newcomer defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s two-high, zone-heavy, 3-4 defense. Nothing about the matchup screams elite upside outside of a role that has yielded 38 targets to running backs this season, good for almost eight per game through five weeks. Should Hubbard serve as the primary back in the absence of Sanders, he could be set up well for six to eight targets in this spot at an affordable $4,300 in salary. Sanders being active would leave the backfield rather uninteresting, considering a split in snaps and opportunities that have been fairly even over the previous three weeks. Raheem Blackshear would be the likeliest back to step into change-of-pace duties behind Hubbard should Sanders miss.

Veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen has been a product of the increased pass volume induced via negative game environments through five weeks, with his 46 targets the eighth most in the league. That said, his underlying metrics are far from elite. His 23.1 percent targets per route run ranks 37th, his 1.98 yards per route run ranks 34th, his 8.6 yards per target ranks 37th, and he has seen just two deep targets with a 7.4 aDOT. Even so, two games with 13 or more targets where he also found the end zone has returned 30+ fantasy points twice in five games. Just realize his chances of breaking 100 yards and scoring a touchdown are rather slim, and if he isn’t hitting those thresholds, he is likely to disappoint in a short-area role. With D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo fully healthy, the snap rate split amongst the team’s wide receivers is extremely condensed amongst those three in an offense that plays almost exclusively from 11-personnel. Tight end Hayden Hurst has not played more than a 61 percent snap rate in any game this season. Chark’s downfield role (15.3 aDOT) brings theoretical upside should he finally connect with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The two-high defensive shell for the Dolphins makes the chances of a downfield strike through Chark less likely than in other matchups around the league.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• These teams rank 30th and 32nd in the NFL in scoring through five weeks.
• Familiarity between coaching staffs make this a bit more of a chess match than the average NFL game, with layers to how these teams will approach it on both sides of the ball.
• New England injuries on the defensive side of the ball give Las Vegas the opportunity to have their best offensive game of the season.
• The Raiders have a promising schedule coming up and could vault themselves into the AFC playoff picture over the next five weeks. 
• Mac Jones and Bill Belichick have both come under fire in recent weeks due to embarrassing defeats at the hands of the Cowboys and Saints. Another ugly performance against two former Patriots (Raiders HC Josh McDaniels and QB Jimmy Garoppolo) could be a tipping point.

How nEW england Will Try To Win ::

It’s really hard to adequately explain how awful the Patriots offense has been recently. They looked absolutely dreadful against both the Cowboys and Saints in the last two weeks. Their running game has no identity, they put no fear in their opponents down the field, and their “quick game” through the air is predictable and uninspiring. Their receivers do not do a good job creating separation, Jones has shown no ability to make on-time and accurate throws with anticipation, and their offensive line ranks 29th in PFF pass-blocking grade. They might be able to get away with some of those things if they had personnel who were capable of making plays after the catch, but no one in their receiving corps is built in such a way. The results shouldn’t be surprising when you look at all the ingredients. While the Saints and Cowboys have solid defenses, the Patriots made them look like superstars. Consider the fact that the dominant Dallas performance against New England was sandwiched between games where they gave up 28 points to the mediocre Cardinals and 42 points to the 49ers. Not good, Bill. Not good at all. 

This week, the Patriots face a Raiders defense that has been “fine” but not great. They haven’t looked dominant at any point this season, but only the Bills have scored more than 24 points against them. The Patriots don’t look like a team that is ready to let Jones loose (and anyone who has watched the last two weeks can’t blame them), and as explored above, their personnel is nothing to write home about. New England doesn’t have a lot of options in terms of its approach, as the running game and short, quick passing is the Patriots’ only viable means to move the ball without risking disaster. They will almost certainly enter with a conservative approach against a team that has not scored 20 points yet this season, and their hope for winning this game will rely on Belichick winning the “chess match” against McDaniels.

How Las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• A matchup of division leaders, this game has potentially huge playoff implications.
• Detroit’s offense has scored over 30 points in three of their five games, while the Bucs defense has held three of four opponents to 17 points or fewer.
• Tampa Bay has not been involved in a game this year that combined for more than 44 points, while Detroit games are averaging 53.5 points over the last four weeks.
• The Bucs are coming off a bye while the Lions look to get back two key offensive weapons.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

On a weekly basis, I watch many NFL teams struggle to find any level of consistent offensive success while also seeing the Lions find new and creative ways to move the ball without the true star power of explosive players on the roster. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a very good receiver but he isn’t on the Justin Jefferson // Ja’Marr Chase // Tyreek Hill (among others) level of game-breaking talent. David Montgomery is a terrific NFL running back but he isn’t a dominant talent either. There must be a few NFL owners just salivating at the chance to get Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in their building next year as he makes this team look effortlessly good on a weekly basis. Heck, last week the 49ers copied a play the Lions had run earlier in the day and both teams scored touchdowns on it. When you have Kyle Shanahan making game day adjustments to the playbook to copy things you are doing, you can be pretty sure you are doing something right. 

Outside of last week’s game against the Panthers, the Lions schedule hasn’t really had any pushovers. Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle, and Kansas City all have solid, well-coached units. That being said, the Bucs defense likely presents the toughest challenge Detroit has seen this season. Coming off a bye and playing at home, the Bucs have held three of four opponents to 17 points or fewer so far this season, with the only exception being the high-flying Eagles who scored 25 points on them and managed 472 total yards. On the flip side, the Lions offense is clearly the best offense Tampa has faced outside of the Eagles, as the Bucs controlled the game against the struggling Saints and Bears offenses while keeping the Vikings in check in Week 1. This creates an interesting situation where both the Lions offense and the Bucs defense are facing a tougher test than they are used to, and we get to find out which side’s performance so far is more legitimate.

The Bucs defense blitzes at the fourth highest rate in the NFL and mixes up their coverages between zone and man. The Bucs have 12 sacks on the season, but half of those came in one game against the Bears when Justin Fields was still playing in a fog. The Lions have a strong offensive line and allow the fourth lowest amount of sacks in the league so this doesn’t seem like a matchup where Tampa will be able to rely on heavy pressure to get the job done defensively. The Lions have established David Montgomery as their bell cow running back, and the emergence of tight end Sam LaPorta has given them a legitimate running mate for Amon-Ra St. Brown as a consistent and viable receiving threat. The Lions have several other good pieces and Ben Johnson does a great job of getting the most out of all of them and leveraging their individual strengths. The Lions have run the ball on half of their plays this season, although game script has a lot to do with that, and Detroit is closer to league average in play calling splits when games are still in question. Detroit expects St. Brown to return to the lineup this week and may get rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs on the field as well. The Lions should be able to move the ball well, thanks to a well schemed and balanced attack with their top three options (Montgomery, ARSB, and LaPorta) on the field. 

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Arizona started the season playing very competitive football, but has shown signs of regression in recent weeks to the team we expected coming into the year.
• James Conner was placed on injured reserve this week, taking away a pillar of the Cardinals offense.
• The Rams have started the season very well, and their current 2-3 record is a bit misleading.
• There isn’t a particular “strong point” for either one of these defenses, while both offenses rate very well in most metrics.
• Los Angeles has two very talented wide receivers facing a defense with two of the bottom 10 cornerbacks in the league in PFF coverage grade.
• Arizona’s defense has given up monster games to their opponent’s top skill player in back-to-back weeks.

How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s offense has performed well and exceeded expectations to start the 2023 NFL season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has helped make this a more dynamic unit that most expected coming into the year and the team has relied primarily on him and Conner as the pillars of this offense. Conner sustained a knee injury last week against the Bengals after a hot start to the game, however, and the Cardinals struggled from that point on. The Cardinals scored two touchdowns on their first four possessions with Conner in the game, taking a 14-10 lead about halfway through the second quarter. After Conner’s departure, the Cardinals scored on only one of eight possessions and were outscored, 24-6. While there were certainly other factors that contributed to those splits, there is no doubt that this was not the same team without Conner on the field.

Arizona ranks slightly above the league average in tempo (seconds per snap) and passes at the 17th highest situation-neutral rate in the league. However, the Cardinals turned more pass-heavy after Conner’s departure, and therefore, we can expect a more pass-heavy game plan for Week 6. Keaontay Ingram and Emari Demercado are likely to both be involved as replacements for Conner, but neither is a game changer and Ingram is coming back from an injury of his own. The likely usage of those players would seem to be Ingram in a two-down role and Demercado mixing in as a change-of-pace back with a pass-down role.

We may also see an increase in usage for Rondale Moore, as he has been used in some creative ways to start the season, and without Conner, the Cardinals will be searching for ways to move the ball. The Cardinals passing game will be relatively aggressive with Marquise Brown as the focal point and Michael Wilson and the tight ends also seeing targets. Ultimately, most of the team’s success will fall on the shoulders of Dobbs. Los Angeles plays primarily zone coverage and does not blitz often, trusting Aaron Donald and company to apply pressure without additional rushers. Dobbs will have to try to pick this secondary apart strategically and take what is given to him underneath. Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown feasted last week and the Cardinals tight ends and Wilson may have some chances to sit down in zone coverage against this secondary. The Rams’ defensive approach leaves a lot of defenders in coverage, and their below-average pressure rate should give Dobbs time to assess the situation and make plays with his legs when nothing is there downfield. Jalen Hurts had success rushing last week and Dobbs should contribute on the ground as well in this matchup.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Jets look to ride their recent momentum for a critical game as they head into their bye week.
• Zach Wilson is going to need to make some plays for the Jets to have a shot in this game.
• Philadelphia’s offense has struggled in the red zone, while New York’s defense has excelled in the same area. 
• Both teams rely heavily on their running game, and the Eagles are unlikely to take unnecessary risks early in the game
• Wilson’s passing grade and quarterback rating is actually OK when he has time to throw but atrocious when he’s pressured – the Eagles rank 6th in the league in QB pressure rate.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles offense ranks 29th in the NFL in situation-neutral pass rate as they continue to rely on the legs of Jalen Hurts and have turned to D’Andre Swift in a featured role. The Eagles have arguably the top offensive line in the league and are 5-0 to start the year, so it’s hard to blame them for that approach. Philadelphia’s offense has taken a step back, however, at turning its offensive production into points this year. After ranking No. 3 in the NFL in red-zone TD conversion rate in 2022 at 68%, they rank 27th in the NFL this season at just 42.11%. The Jets actually face the most field-goal attempts per game this year, as their offense has given up a lot of short fields but their defense has held strong in scoring position. 

The Jets play man coverage at a top-10 rate in the league, and they have a great deal of trust in star cornerback Sauce Gardner on the perimeter. They also blitz at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, as they trust their defensive front to get pressure and their personnel to handle their matchups in the secondary. The Eagles struggled last week against a Rams team that has a similar approach of blitzing at a very low rate. The Rams, however, primarily play zone coverage and the Jets man scheme may allow the Eagles to break free for some scores. The Eagles are unlikely to fall behind in this matchup, or at least not to the point where they would need to panic, and the lack of fear Wilson puts in his opponent is unlikely to shake the Eagles off their relatively conservative playcalling split. Obviously, the Eagles have the personnel to have an explosion in any week, but the expected game script and opponent here make it unlikely that they force the issue, which means it will take Jets mistakes to let Philly break off big plays. Considering the conservative, non-blitzing nature of the Jets scheme and the fact that Philadelphia can realistically count on giving Wilson plenty of opportunities to panic against its defensive pressure, the Eagles are likely entering this game expecting a slightly less competitive version of their win over the Rams in Week 5. They should take control of the game eventually, but they won’t need to press the gas to do so.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Giants visiting the Bills for a 44 total game with Buffalo favored by . . . wait for it . . . 15 points. FIFTEEN. These are the fun ones to write up. For those of you doing the math at home, that means Buffalo is implied for 29.75 points while New York is at 14.25, one of the lower totals I’ve ever had the misfortune of writing up. But there are giant tournaments to be won, so let’s see if we can figure out how to do it.

Buffalo

We’ll start with the Bills so that I can procrastinate the mental and emotional pain that will soon be coming my way. As we know from previous Bills writeups, James Cook is the lead back, but both Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have real roles as well. Cook’s role has been reasonable this year for the most part, with opportunity counts of 18, 21, 18, 13, and 9. I’m willing to set aside the nine opportunities last week as it was a London game against the Jags in which the Bills were down early and their offense looked flat throughout, leading to elevated pass attempts for Josh Allen. No Bills running back saw much usage in that game, so it wasn’t like Cook’s role shrunk and someone else’s grew – they just didn’t run. As massive home favorites, they should be expected to run more in this one. Cook’s receiving role is strong with 3+ targets in four of five games. But, with his price at $9,200, there are some things we need to be a little bit nervous about. First, Cook’s lowest snap count of the year came in Week 4, when the Bills absolutely blew out the Dolphins. That led to more runs for Murray and Harris at Cook’s expense, and guess what a likely outcome this week is? That’s right, another blowout. Second, Cook’s red zone role is not great. The Bills have 28 total rush attempts inside the red zone on the year, with eight belonging to Cook, eight to Allen, and six each to Murray and Harris. The backup RBs are seeing significant red zone usage as a percentage of their total touches, and combined they have three rushing touchdowns to Cook’s one. As a huge home favorite running back with solid passing game work, I want to love Cook, but the red zone usage and uncertainty around workload (it’s tough to project for him for 20+ touches in a non-competitive game) make me shy away a bit at his price. The matchup is so good that I’m not going to X Cook out of rosters but he’s at his all-time high salary in Showdown this week, and while he does have the ceiling to deliver (see Week 2, 22.9 DK points without a touchdown), I feel like his ownership is likely to exceed his likelihood of really hitting. Murray and Harris are viable pieces, especially seeing as how their roles may expand in a blowout, and they’re both cheap. I think if I were building Bills onslaught rosters, given how popular that construction will be, I would allow Murray and Harris on a roster together (but would max 2 of the 3 Bills RBs in total). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Stef Diggs is the alpha receiver and then it’s a merry-go-round behind him. There’s not really much to say about Diggs, dude’s a badass, he’s averaging ten targets per game on the season with five touchdowns and four games of 100+ receiving yards. At $12,200, he’s priced like a true alpha, but he is one. He’s the best position player in this game but he’s awfully expensive and there are plenty of other viable options, so while he’s a strong play, he’s hardly a must play (in both cash and tournaments). In order of snap count, the rest of the wide receiver group is Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, and Khalil Shakir, with tight end being manned by Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Quintin Morris. Plus, Cook and Murray both have some passing game role. Once you get past Diggs, this offense spreads the ball around quite a bit, leaving it hard to have a high degree of confidence in any one pass catcher. Davis is on the field the most but with just 26 targets on the season, he’s overpriced for his volume at $7,800 and highly reliant on scoring a touchdown (preferably a long one) in order to hit. His deep threat role gives him upside on relatively modest volume. I will say I like him more in this game than the London one in which I wrote about him, just because there aren’t as many strong offensive options priced around him. Sherfield is a low floor, low ceiling option, as while he’s on the field a fair bit, he has just seven targets on the season. Harty and Shakir will both be on the field less than Sherfield, but both should still be involved in the passing game, with Harty actually averaging three targets per game despite his limited snap count. Harty is a guy whose role I expect will grow over the course of the season, and in those situations, I generally want to try to be early and get on a guy before the role change occurs. He’s plenty cheap at $600, he has at least two catches in each game, and that makes him more than a complete punt play. Shakir is less talented than Harty and plays a shorter-area role, leaving him as a touchdown-or-bust punt play. Worth noting is that the Bills pulled back on Sherfield last week, with just 18% of the snaps, though that translated to more heavy personnel sets rather than more run for Harty and Shakir. 

At tight end, both Kincaid and Knox are questionable. Kincaid has a concussion, and we have yet to see a concussed player play in the next week’s game as it seems the NFL is (finally) taking a more conservative approach to this type of injury, so I’m guessing he’s out. I think Knox is likely to play as he has gotten in limited practices all week. Kincaid being out doesn’t help Knox as much as you might think, because the Bills had used Kincaid like a wide receiver much of the time. It does boost Knox some, but I think it also boosts the WR3 role as that’s where Kincaid has spent a decent chunk of his time lining up (hi, Harty!). Morris is just a blocker without a target on the season. This is a tough offense to untangle because of how spread out it is behind Diggs, but I would say Harty is my next favorite option given his price, then Davis, Knox, Shakir, and Sherfield. 

New York

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 wraps up with the Cowboys visiting the Chargers for the week’s highest total game at 51 points with Dallas favored by two. High total, close spread . . . Vegas is saying “shootout.” Is that what we’re likely to get? Well, the Chargers have scored 27.5 points per game (albeit against relatively weak defenses) while allowing 26. Dallas has scored 26.8 points per game but has allowed just 16.6. There are two dynamics in play here. First, is that the Chargers are projected to score pretty close to their season average (implied total of 24.5) while going up against one of the league’s premier defenses. The second dynamic is that while the Cowboys have averaged 26.8 points per game, their scoring is wildly volatile with 30+ in three games while scoring just 10 and 16 in the other two. Dallas scoring is also inflated by FOUR defensive touchdowns thus far, so offensively they’ve averaged just 22 points per game. I’m not a totals bettor, but this one feels at least a bit more likely to go under than over. Let’s see if we can figure this one out.

Dallas

The Cowboys run game is led by Tony Pollard, who I think has a really nice role right now, but it’s also kind of hard to figure out because three of their five games have been complete blowouts, with one more a 30-10 victory that they put away kind of late. In the two more competitive games, Pollard has opportunity counts of 33 and 26, with 48 total carries and 11 targets. In the blowouts, his opportunities go down (duh). If we expect this game to be competitive, Pollard is highly likely to see at least 18-20 touches with solid passing game involvement. At $9,600, he’s not priced for that kind of volume given his talent and a matchup against a Chargers defense that can give it up to opposing run games. Rico Dowdle is the RB2, and at $2,000, belongs in the “RB2s in Showdown are useful” conversation, with Deuce Vaughn and Hunter Luepke filling out the backfield as MME punt options. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Cowboys will trot out CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup as their primary wide receivers. Lamb is the alpha here (duh), though due to blowouts he’s only averaging seven targets per game. In competitive games, however, he’s averaging ten targets per game, and at $9,000 in a good matchup, he’s pretty clearly too cheap. Lamb is an awesome play who I was frankly too slow to come around on as having a strong ceiling once Amari Cooper left the Cowboys. Cooks and Gallup are risky options as neither has really done much this year. Cooks had all the preseason hype about his quick connection with Dak but has a 9/73/0 receiving line on 19 targets, while Gallup is at 15/180/0 on 22 targets. Gallup is also $2,800 vs. $5,400 for Cooks. Both have significant upside as both guys can house one from anywhere. Given the savings, I’ll take Gallup as my preferred play of the pair. Gadget guy KaVontae Turpin is back after leaving last week’s game with an injury (sigh) and should resume his heavy red zone usage role (remember I noted that in last week’s writeup, then he scored a 26 yard touchdown in the first half . . . and then got hurt). He’s a punt play, but one who is consistently involved close to the end zone with both targets and carries. He’s risky but with ceiling for his $1,600 price. Jalen Tolbert rounds out the wide receiver group and has very minimal upside with Turpin back. 

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is a consistently solid play as long as he’s priced in the $5k range, with Dak having a long history of productive tight end lines. Ferguson’s massive red zone role (11 red zone targets, Lamb is second with just five) also gives him plenty of upside. He hasn’t really “hit” yet this year with a season-high of 14.7 DK points, but as long as the usage continues, stronger results are coming. TE2 Luke Schoonmaker is only minimally involved in the passing game and is a punt option. 

Los Angeles