Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- We don’t yet have an injury report from the Seahawks coming off their bye, but DK Metcalf did not practice on Monday when the team returned to the field.
- Quarterback Geno Smith was forced from the team’s Week 4 win over the Giants with a knee injury but appears set to play against the Bengals.
- The most significant injury concerns from Seattle are in their secondary and along their offensive line – expect updates later in the week.
- Geno Smith ranks dead last in IAY/PA this season, likely attributable to an offensive line struggling through injuries and allowing pressure at the second-highest rate in the league.
- Kenneth Walker gets the best matchup on the ground of the young season against a Bengals defense allowing 1.62 yards before contact per carry (30th in the league).
- Tee Higgins is an interesting case study in pain management, as his rib injury is highly unlikely to get worse by playing but is equally as likely to be extremely painful whenever he is touched in the torso. That said, the team did not send him to injured reserve, keeping the possibility of him being active on game day open.
- Is Joe Burrow now fully healthy? There is no way of knowing for sure. Still, the Cincinnati signal-caller remained exclusively in the gun against the Cardinals but did demonstrate a little more escapability and mobility when under pressure.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
The best way to describe how the Seahawks try to win games is to relate them to a battering ram. They will run their offense their way, which typically involves elevated rush rates, moderate pace of play, and controlled game environments with an emphasis on execution. The primary focus of their offense in game environments they can control is to chip away at their opponent, opening up downfield passing. That said, one of the more significant changes this season when compared to past offenses is their willingness to open up the aggression should the game environment call for it, utilizing pace (seventh-ranked 27.7 seconds per play) and above-average pass rates (eighth-ranked pass rate over expectation) as needed. This is evident by looking at their game logs, with just 55 offensive plays run from scrimmage in their lone convincing win (24-3 in Week 4 against the Giants) and an average of 66 offensive plays run from scrimmage between a 13-30 loss to the Rams in Week 1 (51 offensive plays), 37-31 overtime win against the Lions in Week 2 (72 offensive plays), and 37-27 shootout win against the Panthers in Week 3 (75 offensive plays). Even so, expect the game plan to involve elevated rush rates to begin and play action passing built around that, with the understanding that the offense is now willing to alter course in the second half this season should the game environment call for it.
22′ = $9,200!
23′ = _______
Running back Kenneth Walker has been held to lead back status instead of workhorse status, which makes sense considering previous coach tendencies amongst offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Pete Carroll. His 59.7 percent snap rate ranks 16th in the league, and his 67.3 percent opportunity share ranks 14th. Furthermore, and in true Seattle fashion, Walker has been in a route at a low 30.2 percent clip, relegating him to yardage-and-touchdown status. His speed (4.38) will always lend itself to explosive plays and breakaway runs, of which he already has four through four games, meaning the ceiling is most certainly still there. He also holds the most evaded tackles in the league while playing four games, compared to five for most other backs. The Seattle offensive line has been a relative infringement, generating just 1.21 yards before contact per attempt. That has left the bulk of the honus on Walker to generate on his own, which he largely has done to this point in the season. That said, he now gets a matchup with a Bengals defensive front, allowing the third most yards before contact at 1.62 and the third most yards per carry at 5.3. This is a good spot on paper for Walker to get going. Backing up Walker as the strict change of pace back is rookie Zach Charbonnet, who has been between 24 and 26 percent snap rates in three of four games this season. DeeJay Dallas is head-scratchingly still a part of the offense, primarily reserved for clear passing situations and the two-minute offense. Finally, Walker has five rushing scores across the Seahawks’ three wins compared to zero in their only loss, meaning Walker likely goes as the offense goes moving forward.
The offense utilizes extreme rates of 12-personnel in game environments they can control, departing only from that setup in their Week 1 loss to the Rams. They have averaged a 49.33 percent 12-personnel rate in their three games since Week 2, which has had the largest impact on rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s snap rate to date. Alpha wide receiver DK Metcalf has played just 71 percent of the team’s offensive snaps over the previous two games, which could be related to a rib injury he picked up in the team’s Week 2 overtime win over the Lions. Tyler Lockett has also seen his snap rates drop during the previous two games, averaging just 75 percent of the team’s offensive snaps during that stretch. JSN appears to remain capped at 60 percent of the offensive snaps, again attributable to the team’s elevated 12-personnel rates. The snap-rate dip for Lockett and Metcalf have benefited undrafted free agent Jake Bobo, who has averaged just under 40 percent of the team’s offensive snaps during the most recent two-game stretch. In his 2022 career resurgence year, Geno Smith held respectable marks in intended air yards per pass attempts (IAY/PA – 7.6) and completed air yards per pass attempt (CAY/PA – 4.4) but has struggled to begin the 2023 season (league-worst 6.2 IAY/PA and 22nd-ranked 3.6 CAY/PA). That dip is likely attributable to a 31st-ranked pressure rate allowed from the offensive line that continues to struggle through injury. A matchup with a Bengals defense generating pressure at a below-average 21.7 percent clip could allow Geno to attack more aggressively downfield.