Week 6 Matchups

Don't Play DFS At A Disadvantage

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Kickoff Thursday, Oct 10th 8:20pm Eastern

Giants (
13.25) at

Patriots (
29.75)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
12th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
17th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
29th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
6th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
10th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
25th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Showdown Slant ::
Presented by top Showdown mind Xandamere!
Week 6 starts off with one of the biggest mismatches I have ever seen, as the Giants travel to take on the Patriots. The game has an over/under of 42 points, with the Pats projected for almost 30 and the Giants for 12.75. I’m not even sure how to write this up, but here we go.
Let’s start with the Patriots. The run game is likely to be a three-headed beast in some form. and are the headliners and are both strong plays, with Rex Burkhead as . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 9:30am Eastern

Panthers (
24.25) at

Bucs (
22.25)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
29th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
4th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
12th DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
13th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
22nd DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
24th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Showdown Slant ::
Presented by top Showdown mind Xandamere!
Set your alarms early if you’re playing this Showdown, especially if you’re a West Coaster like me. Vegas has this as a fairly close game, with the “road” Panthers installed as 2.5 point favorites in a 47.5 point total. These teams match up kind of strangely — the Bucs have an elite run D but vulnerable secondary, while the Panthers are vulnerable on the ground and but very hard to pass on. That means we have strength on strength matchups here as the Bucs’ vertical passing attack is ill . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Redskins (
24) at

Dolphins (
18.5)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Redskins Run D
18th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Redskins Pass D
28th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
31st DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Redskins Run O
30th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
32nd DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Redskins Pass O
27th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

Redskins at Dolphins shapes up as a sloppy game between two bad teams, but because these teams are as bad on defense as they are on offense (each team ranks bottom three in offensive DVOA, and each ranks bottom four in defensive DVOA), there is at least some opportunity for the offenses in this game to produce at a high enough level to matter in DFS.

If we filter out the fourth quarter of games and take only situations in which the Dolphins are within 10 points of their opponent, we end . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
20.75) at

Vikings (
24.25)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
4th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
6th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
10th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
22nd DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
2nd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
16th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
9th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
8th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

Eagles at Vikings gives us a great real-life game between two teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, with each team sitting at 3-2 through the first five weeks of the season. The winner of this game moves to 4-2 and feels like they are in great shape heading into the next stretch of the season, and the loser moves to 3-3 and wonders what they need to do to become a "better than .500" team.

We'll start this game on the Philly side of the ball, as . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
25.5) at

Chiefs (
29)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
21st DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
2nd DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
30th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
8th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
11th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

It will be a surprise if Houston at Kansas City is not one of the most popular games on the slate this week, as there are only 10 games in all, this game carries the highest Over/Under, the Chiefs are always an attractive offense, and the Texans are coming off a high-owned pasting of the Falcons. This is also a good place to talk about something we talk about quite a bit on the site: you should work to become intimately familiar with your own "style of play." Do you . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
20) at

Jaguars (
22.5)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
17th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
18th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
5th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
32nd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
23rd DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
18th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
10th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

Vegas has had a difficult time trying to figure out what to make of this game between the Saints and the Jaguars, as the Jags opened as 2.5 point favorites before the line was bet to Saints -1.0; but the line has since swung back the other way with the Jags installed as favorites again — this time by 1.0 points. Along the way, the Over/Under has held fairly steady (rising from 43.5 to 45.0 before settling in at 44.0), with the bettors leaning on the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
22.25) at

Browns (
23.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
16th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
15th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
19th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
30th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
23rd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
11th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
1st DVOA/8th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

While all the hype this offseason surrounded the talent-rich Browns, the "still rebuilding" Seahawks were continuing to do what they always do: build a team that communicates well, plays assignment-strong football, and continues to get better as the season moves along. Five weeks into the year, there are only two teams with a better record than the 4-1 Seahawks, while the Browns sit at a disappointing 2-3 while failing to get their superstar offseason acquisition involved, failing to keep drives alive (26th in drive success rate), failing to . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
18.25) at

Ravens (
28.75)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
26th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
31st DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
24th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
31st DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
26th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

The Baltimore Ravens defense is not the Baltimore Ravens defense. I'll go on record as saying I don't really get the Ravens' DVOA ranking against the run (24th — when this team ranks 10th in yards allowed per carry and has allowed only 3.8 yards per carry to running backs if we filter out the game in which Nick Chubb busted some long runs, while allowing basically nothing if we also take out a couple big edge runs by Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy) — but in the pass game, this . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:05pm Eastern

49ers (
23.5) at

Rams (
26.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
5th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
9th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
5th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
7th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

The Over/Under for this divisional clash between the 4-0 49ers and the 3-2 Rams is surprisingly elevated at 50.5 (up from an opening line of 48.5!), with what has been a tremendous 49ers defense, and with a few other elements that could lead to this game falling shy of a true shootout. (Note: not that the game can't hit that mark of 50.5! But the chances of it turning into a barn-burner are somewhat slim. On the season, three of the 49ers' four games . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:05pm Eastern

Falcons (
27.5) at

Cards (
24.5)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
7th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
1st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
30th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
29th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
22nd DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
17th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

The Arizona Cardinals have shown great (and somewhat surprising) adaptability over the last couple weeks, with one example coming in Week 5 against the poor run defense of the Bengals, when Kliff Kingsbury eschewed his pass-dominant approach and instead called on for 17 carries, for eight carries, and Kyler Murray for 10 carries (some designed, some not); and while coaching adaptability is always worth paying attention to in order to gain an edge, this particular shift by the Cardinals is noteworthy in a matchup sense as well, as opponents have been . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
25.25) at

Jets (
18.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
20th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
29th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
17th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Jets Run D
11th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
13th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

This week, will return to the field for a matchup against a Cowboys pass defense that has been doing its thing so far this year — shaving over 13% off the league-average aDOT and almost 8% off the league-average YAC per reception rate, while allowing the ninth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards: playing disciplined but unaggressive zone defense, keeping the ball in front of them, and forcing opponents to march the field. And given the state of the Jets' offense to date (and given that Darnold has been dealing with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Titans (
19.75) at

Broncos (
21.25)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
13th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
14th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
21st DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
19th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
22nd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
16th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

:: Seriously. Grow bankroll! Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft.

As with most games that involve the Titans and Broncos, "Titans at Broncos" carries one of the lowest Over/Unders of the week. (In fact, this particular game carries the lowest Over/Under of the week, at only 39.0.) And unlike, for example, Washington at Miami – which has a low total in a game with bad defenses, opening opportunities for big plays to happen and for pieces from that game to become more viable than the Over/Under suggests – Broncos vs Titans combines a pair of solid defenses (Tennessee ranks 14th . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 8:20pm Eastern

Steelers (
18.25) at

Chargers (
24.25)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
15th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
24th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
13th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
26th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
25th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
23rd DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Showdown Slant ::
Presented by top Showdown mind Xandamere!
The poor Steelers are on their third quarterback of the year with Devlin Hodges taking over as they travel to meet the Chargers. The game has a modest 41.5 Over/Under, with the Chargers checking in at a not-terrible 24 point total and the Steelers at 17.5. The Chargers’ defense is, of course, pretty banged up, but this could still be awfully ugly…
Let’s start with the Steelers. The realistic strategy is to try and lean heavily on the run game (the Chargers are 25th in run defense . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 14th 8:15pm Eastern

Lions (
21.75) at

Packers (
25.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
14th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
9th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
9th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
28th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
27th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
5th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
4th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Showdown Slant ::
Presented by top Showdown mind Xandamere!
Written before pricing was released; pricing notes are added at the end of this article.
Week 6 wraps up with the Lions visiting the Packers. Green Bay is a 4 point favorite at Lambeau Field, though that might drop down a bit now that Davante Adams has been officially ruled out. This shapes up as a fairly ugly game for DFS purposes without a lot of clear, strong plays, which makes it ideal for multi-entry play.
Aaron Jones finally exploded last week against the Cowboys with Jamaal Williams and Davante Adams . . .

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