XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

And just like that we’re into Week 3, which begins with the Giants visiting the 49ers for a 44.5 total game with San Francisco favored by a whopping 10 points (thus the Giants have an implied team total below 20 points). The Giants are coming off of a huge comeback victory against Arizona and now have to face one of the NFL’s best teams . . . seems almost unfair.

San Francisco

On the 49ers side, Christian McCaffrey has been used as an absolute bell cow so far, playing 85% and then 100% of the snaps to go along with 27 and 23 running back opportunities. But, there’s reason to doubt that will continue. First, is what coach Kyle Shanahan has said, noting recently it was a mistake to let CMC play that much, and that he needs to do a better job of mixing in Elijah Mitchell. Of course, that could just be coach speak, but we also have last year’s history to go off of, when CMC played far less than a bell cow rule as long as Mitchell was also healthy. As a team that is a near-lock to go to the playoffs and wants to make a deep run, it doesn’t make sense for them to run down CMC in the season’s early going and increase his injury risk. He’s a critical decision point on the slate because if he continues to see massive usage as a 10 point home favorite, he’s highly likely to smash. But at $13.2k, his salary is as massive as his ceiling, and so if they scale back on his workload, it’s very easy to see him not being optimal. It’s a scary decision point. Personally, I’m going to be underweight on CMC and if he beats me, he beats me. Behind CMC, Mitchell is just $2,400 due to his lack of early season work, making him a superior value play if you believe he gets back to something similar to the split that the 49ers running backs had last season.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The passing game for the 49ers is mainly Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, with Jauan Jennings hanging around occasionally, and a couple of other guys playing a small handful of snaps. So far we’ve seen each of Deebo and Aiyuk have big games, and that’s how this offense will work. The 49ers receivers generally have to get by on limited target volume (Brock Purdy has attempted 29 and 25 passes in their two games thus far), with double digit target games being the exception rather than the rule. Fortunately, all the 49ers main playmakers have the ability to score from anywhere. Deebo leads the team with 16 targets while Aiyuk has 14 (good for a 55% combined target share, which is nicely condensed). Aiyuk picked up a shoulder injury in Week 2 but played through it to finish the game, so it seems more likely than not that he plays here, though on a short week, it’s possible we could see the 49ers take the more cautious approach and rest him. If Aiyuk rests, it’s wheels up for Deebo in what has looked like a very positive matchup early in the season against a Giants defense that has yet to even sack the opposing quarterback. If Aiyuk plays, Deebo has a slight on-paper edge based on his historically slightly larger target share and a couple of additional carries he generally sees, but they’re both clearly strong options. Then we have George Kittle at tight end, who is absolutely elite but rarely sees elite volume when the 49ers are healthy (nine targets so far vs. the 16 & 14 for Deebo & Aiyuk). The biggest beneficiary of Aiyuk missing would be Kittle. His lack of volume makes him a risky play whenever the 49ers are fully healthy, and while he still always has an elite ceiling, his likelihood of hitting that ceiling goes up meaningfully when San Francisco is down one of their other primary playmakers. Jennings is primarily a floor option as a “well, he’s on the field a good bit” guy who sees little receiving volume. When Aiyuk missed some time last week, it was Ronnie Bell who was the primary beneficiary, seeing his snaps go from 10% in Week 1 to 47% in Week 2 (though with zero targets to show for it). It’s also possible that Ray-Ray McCloud will take some additional offensive snaps. McCloud broke his wrist in the preseason and was expected to miss roughly two months, but he played some special teams snaps in Week 2, and we could see that role expand if Aiyuk misses. Bell should be viewed as the favorite to see increased run if Aiyuk is out, but McCloud can be used as something of a dark horse. Backup tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley can also be mixed in as MME punt options.

New York 

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By hILOW >>

• The Colts would struggle to cover an elephant on the perimeter this season – it’s been baaaaad.
• Baltimore saw JK Dobbins suffer a season-ending injury and now could be without Justice Hill as well, who emerged from Week 2 with a toe injury. The team signed veteran back Kenyan Drake on Wednesday.
• Odell Beckham Jr. did not practice Wednesday after aggravating an ankle injury.
• Anthony Richardson self-reported concussion symptoms during the Colts’ Week 2 win over the Texans and did not practice Wednesday.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts continue to play with pace (second-ranked seconds per play at 24.7, interestingly enough, second only to the Patriots) and elevated pass rates (fourth-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) value through two weeks), carrying forward tendencies we saw during the preseason. A lot of their offensive game plan is likely to revolve around the availability of quarterback Anthony Richardson. While Gardner Minshew is one of the better backups in the league, he doesn’t bring the same per-play upside to the table as a guy like Richardson does, relegating the offense to a more game-management mindset should Minshew start. New head coach and offensive mastermind Shane Steichen has turned some heads (just mine, maybe?) early in the season for the way he has managed his offense with a rookie quarterback, mostly from the sense that he is throwing Richardson directly into the fire to run an offense he wants to run as opposed to starting him off easy and building up to his vision. We should view that as an overwhelming positive for this offense and for the development of Richardson.

Deon Jackson went from lead back with a 71 percent snap share in Week 1 to the bench with zero offensive snaps in the blink of an eye with the return of Zack Moss in Week 2. Moss returned from a broken arm to immediately play 98 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and handle 100 percent of the team’s available running back opportunities, putting to rest any uncertainty regarding how this backfield will operate in the absence of Jonathan Taylor (PUP-ankle). Similar to other spots covered this week, the problem isn’t matchup or workload expectation; the problem for Moss resides in a matchup with a Ravens team that has been one of the better rush defenses in the league over the previous five seasons (and beyond). I’ll keep bringing this up when we talk about the Ravens, but nose tackle Michael Pierce is one of the true interior cloggers left in the game, giving the Ravens a lot of flexibility behind knowing he can be so effective up front.

While the pace and pass rates have been pluses, both Richardson and Minshew currently hold two of the bottom four values in average intended air yards, meaning this offense has largely been confined to the short areas of the field (4.9 for Richardson and 5.9 for Minshew). That said, this entire offense is one of the more concentrated units in the league through two weeks, playing league-average rates of 11- and 12-personnel and really only showcasing one back (previously discussed), three wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are true every-down receivers and slot-man Josh Downs has a stranglehold on the slot snaps), and three tight ends (Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, and either Drew Ogletree or Will Mallory) for what amounts to a very average 20 percent 12-personnel rate. Because the downfield shots have been so infrequent, the Indianapolis offense has largely been called on to march the field and string together drives to this point in the season. Richardson’s mobility and extreme athleticism has aided that design, making it more difficult with Minshew. A lot of the expectations from this game environment (and not just the effectiveness of the Colts offense) is likely to come down the presence or absence of Richardson. Pittman is the true alpha of this offense but has largely been confined to the same short-area role that restricts the offense as a whole.

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Browns defense has given up roughly the same amount of points this season as the offense.
• Tennessee’s offense has struggled to find itself in the first two games of the season.
• Cleveland lost star running back Nick Chubb for the season on Monday night and has to figure out its backfield and Deshaun Watson’s accuracy.
• The Titans defense continues to be one of the biggest “pass funnel” defenses in the NFL.
• Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they lean on their running game and offensive line to mask passing game deficiencies.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans under Mike Vrabel have stayed consistent if nothing else. They want to run the ball, milk the clock, and “win ugly.” The issue they had last year and continue to have this year is a pass defense that is weak, to put it nicely. Tennessee ranks 27th in the NFL in PROE and 32nd in seconds per snap (aka, “tempo”). This is nothing we weren’t already aware of. They are going to play slow and pound the rock with Derrick Henry. They will occasionally take shots downfield – like last week when Treylon Burks got loose for a 70-yard reception – but for the most part, this team is going to ride Henry and make their hay off of his physical dominance and leveraging how defenses adjust to contain him. Play-action passing, quick screens, and downfield shots against single high safety looks when teams bring an eighth defender into the box to contain the “Big Dog.” Unfortunately, Henry has been mediocre so far this season averaging only 3.6 yards per carry over his first two outings.

This week, Tennessee takes the short trip to Cleveland for a matchup with an extremely good Browns defense. Through two games, the Browns defense has given up only 15 points to the Bengals and Steelers while their offense has given up 14 points on turnovers that handed their opponents defensive touchdowns. This elite defense has the physicality and talent to mute the Titans offense as long as they are not given short fields. The Titans offense faces an especially difficult task if DeAndre Hopkins is not able to return to form, as he has been nursing a hamstring injury for over a week and missed Thursday’s practice. Tennessee’s approach is a very direct one that doesn’t require a ton of insight. They want to get in a street fight and hope that the fact they’ve got the biggest, baddest dude is enough to make their opponent say “uncle.” The presence of Hopkins would help (especially if he is able to move like himself and present a “threat” to Cleveland) as that would occupy more attention from their secondary and open things up for Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to move the chains as secondary pieces who Cleveland isn’t as focused on.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The teams involved in this game are the bottom two teams in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through two weeks.
• Detroit is battling injuries on both sides of the ball, which should make Atlanta’s offense more efficient and Detroit’s offense more pass-heavy and quicker-paced.
• David Montgomery’s status is of particular importance to the potential of this game, with the Lions having a better chance of winning if he plays but the game having a better chance of turning into a track meet if he sits.
• Both defenses have been solid so far this season, but Atlanta’s pass defense and Detroit’s run defense will have their toughest tests in Week 3.
• Explosive young players on both sides of the ball have the opportunity to light the match on this powder keg.
• We should not automatically assume “run-heavy” means slow and boring, especially with the players involved here.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Atlanta enters this week with an unblemished record after securing home wins over the Panthers and Packers. This week, they will face a tough road test in Detroit against a team that is always competitive. Atlanta’s pass rate over expectation is dead last in the NFL, and that’s exactly how head coach Arthur Smith likes it. Detroit’s run defense has been solid so far this year, but it hasn’t really been tested. In Week 1, they faced the Chiefs, who were without Travis Kelce, which made them much easier to defend in all facets of offense, and in Week 2, they faced a Seahawks team with a banged-up offensive line. The Falcons boast PFF’s #4 ranked run-blocking unit, and they should match up somewhat favorably here. Tyler Allgeier has been solid since the latter half of last year, and Bijan Robinson is downright electric to watch. Leaning on those two makes a lot of sense when you watch them run…..and run, they will.

As we just discussed, Atlanta is going to run the ball. It’s not a secret. We won’t spend too much time on them because Detroit is the bigger X-factor here and the team that truly holds the keys to how this game plays out, but there are a couple of things to note. First, Desmond Ridder ran the ball ten times last week, an added dimension that could give Detroit’s defense fits as they typically play a lot of man coverage, making them susceptible to QB scrambles. Second, the Falcons don’t throw at a high rate, but it is relatively condensed when they do. Desmond Ridder completed 19 passes last week, with only five players catching a pass and all of them catching multiple passes. Finally, the biggest gripe outsiders have about the Falcons is their lack of use of their young weapons. The aforementioned high rate of man coverage typical for the Lions for the past year would give those weapons some opportunities to make big plays. Detroit will be without three edge rushers and two defensive backs for this matchup, which should afford Ridder some extra time on his occasional dropbacks and give those elite playmakers a chance to win matchups.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By HILOW >>

• Jamaal Williams is likely out and Alvin Kamara has one final game remaining on his suspension.
• New Orleans is likely to get rookie Kendre Miller back from injury, as he practiced in full on Wednesday.
• The Saints backfield is expected to be some combination of Tony Jones Jr. and Miller, with the potential for increased involvement from Taysom Hill on the ground.
• Aaron Jones was a DNP in practice Wednesday while Christian Watson got in a limited session.

How New orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have actually been playing with pace to start the season at a solid 26.7 seconds per play (seventh). Their pass rate over expectation (PROE) value has routinely been around the middle of the league under the current regime, and this season is no different. New Orleans has struggled to find the end zone to begin the season, averaging only 18.0 points scored per game with quarterback Derek Carr tossing just one touchdown pass through two games. Even so, New Orleans currently finds itself at a 2-0 record and atop the haphazard NFC South, having given up just one touchdown combined to the Panthers (scored with 1:16 remaining in the fourth quarter of Week 2) and the Titans (five field goals). Carr currently leads the league in average intended air yards at a robust 10.4 value, primarily through downfield looks to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, meaning eventually the bulk plays are likely to come for this offense. The standard Joe Barry off-coverage defensive scheme for the Packers has allowed the Bears and Falcons to average 378.5 yards of offense per game, which ranks 27^th in the league through two weeks.

As mentioned above, the ground game should be a mix of Jones Jr. (the only back currently on the roster with NFL experience), Miller (the expected primary change-of-pace back entering the season), and the potential for perennial troll Hill to see increased utilization on the ground. Taysom has primarily been used at the quarterback position on designed draws on the ground to this point in the season, but we’ve seen the Saints dial up some interesting looks for their mega-utility player when given the time to prepare. This game could very much be an instance where they utilize Hill’s multi-faceted skill set heavier on the ground, particularly considering a matchup with a Packers team that has largely had no answer for mobile quarterbacks under Barry. The Packers’ defensive coordinator loves him some athletic linebackers, which is typically a plus against mobile quarterbacks, but his high zone rate and prevent–style defensive scheme typically keeps safeties deep and out of the box and linebackers both rushing and dropping in coverage. That has led to the propensity to get absolutely burned by mobile quarterbacks in the past, particularly if the opposing offense is capable to scheming up designed runs to the side of incoming pressure – something I expect Pete Carmichael to do in this spot.

The Saints have utilized an interesting spread of offensive personnel alignments through two weeks, which is another nod to Carmichael and his ability to game plan to simultaneously maximize the talent he has at his disposal and take advantage of the shortcomings of the opposing defense. In Week 1, that meant an offense primarily built around 11-personnel against the Titans. In Week 2, however, that meant extreme 12-personel rates against the Panthers. As in, the team was in 12-personnel at a 41 percent clip even before you factor in Hill’s 40 percent snap rate, which we know comes from all over the formation (but he’s listed as a tight end). In this spot, against the previously examined Packers defense, I would expect another game of elevated 12-personnel alignments and increased reliance on Taysom. And the funniest part about that is Barry is the type of coach to not adjust his defensive scheme a lick during the game, typically heavily reliant on whatever game plan he comes up with before first kick. As such, Carmichael is likely to continue riding what works early, and I have a sneaky suspicion it will involve increased involvement for Hill. Kieth Kirkwood has annoyingly taken a piece of the offensive pie from Shaheed this season, which has kept the latter around a 50 percent snap rate in consecutive weeks. One final note here is the presence of tight end Foster Moreau on the injury report Wednesday, when he missed practice with an ankle injury.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Texans have averaged 45.5 pass attempts per game over the first two weeks of the season.
• Both teams rank in the top 12 in seconds per play (HOU – fifth at 25.5, JAX – 12^th at 27.9).
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell both rank in the top 10 in average separation at target amongst qualified pass-catchers.
• Zay Jones missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury suffered against the Chiefs.
• Both offensive lines are legitimate issues for these two teams.

How Houston will try to Win ::

First off, I don’t think we’ve necessarily been shown how the Texans want to try and win games this season just yet. While the team is averaging 45.5 pass attempts per game over the first two weeks of the season, their pass rate over expectation values have ranked in the bottom half of the league in both weeks. On the other hand, their 25.5 seconds per play ranks as the fifth-fastest pace of play thus far. We all thought coming into the season that new head coach DeMeco Ryans would adopt a more conservative game management approach built around the talent on the defense, but we’ve seen a team not afraid to air it out when the opportunity presents itself. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is cut from the Kyle Shanahan and Gary Kubiak coaching tree, and we’ve seen some of the robust layering present in the route trees of his primary pass-catchers already this season. The biggest problem in instilling a zone-gap run-blocking scheme has been health up front, as Houston played the first two weeks of the season missing three starters along their offensive line and is now set to start Week 3 with four missing starters. For all the struggles of this offensive line in the run game, they still rank ninth in the league in percentage of dropbacks without yielding a pressure. That will likely be put to the test against a Jacksonville defense averaging the sixth-highest pressure rate through two weeks (29.3 percent). That pressure rate has translated to a low defensive aDOT against, which ranks seventh at 6.3.

Week 2 marked the second consecutive week where lead back Dameon Pierce played just 45 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Even with Mike Boone out of the lineup in Week 2, Dare Ogbunbowale stepped into 16 offensive snaps and Devin Singletary saw his role grow into 36 percent of the offensive snaps. Until this team can get healthy up front, I don’t see a scenario where the ground game is able to get going. The Texans are averaging just 24.5 rush attempts per game through two weeks, and that’s with a combined (and absurd) 160 total offensive plays run from scrimmage (76 in Week 1 and 84 (!!!) in Week 2 – the NFL average is just over 65 per game). It also doesn’t help that the Jaguars have allowed only 11 explosive plays through two weeks in games against the Colts and Chiefs. We should have very little interest in this run game until the offensive line returns to health and we start to see some of the zone-gap run-blocking principles we were promised.

As was mentioned above, Houston’s offensive line has largely held up well in protection thus far, but now faces perhaps their toughest test against the athletic pass rush of the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud’s time to throw ranks 10^th slowest of qualified passers through two weeks but his intended air yards per pass attempt resides at a healthy 8.0 – 13^th deepest in the league. Slowik has also been able to design an offense with layered route concepts, leading to two pass-catchers ranked in the top 10 in the league in average separation at target through two weeks (Nico Collins and Tank Dell – sorry, Robert Woods… sad face emoji). Another aspect of the offense that could help rationalize the plus pass protection but horrendous run-blocking metrics of this offensive line is the hefty 35 percent 12-personnel utilization through two weeks (30 percent in Week 1 and 39 percent in Week 2). Nico Collins has been in a route only 81.8 percent of Houston’s pass plays on just a 66.3 percent snap rate, but his 30.6 percent targets per route run rate ranks 16^th in the league through two weeks. Through 160 offensive plays, the top three wide receivers of Collins, Dell, and Robert Woods have combined for only 25 slot snaps, further highlighting an emphasis on 2-wide alignments and the presence of tight end Dalton Schultz out of the slot (fourth-highest slot snap rate amongst tight ends this season). That said, Schultz currently has an aDOT of 1.5 (lolz). 

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Jaylen Waddle suffered a concussion in Week 2 and has yet to practice this week, as of Thursday.
• Salvon Ahmed has yet to practice with a groin injury, as of Thursday.
• The Broncos have largely struggled to get their offense going through multiple key injuries.
• Jerry Jeudy ran 66 percent of his snaps from the slot in his first game action of the 2023 season, which is more in line with his career rates (and much higher than his slot snap rate in 2022 of just over 37 percent).
• Raheem Mostert’s 73 percent snap rate and the successes of McDaniel’s outside zone run scheme come together to provide an excellent range of outcomes profile.

How Denver will try to Win ::

The Broncos have averaged 65 offensive plays per game behind a modest pace of play (20^th-ranked 29.2 seconds per play) and the sixth-highest pass rate over expectation value. It appears this offense is still trying to find its way in certain aspects, which makes sense considering the massive changes the team undertook this offseason. One of the strengths of this team is its offensive line, which has underperformed in pass-blocking metrics but overperformed in run-blocking metrics through two games. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who came over from the 49ers during the offseason, has allowed 13 pressures through two games after allowing just 30 during the entirety of the 2022 season. Left tackle Garret Bolles has allowed just two sacks since Week 7 of last year. Right guard Quinn Meinerz has dominated inside, blocking to a massive 82.9 run-blocking grade from PFF over the first two weeks of the season. Left guard Ben Powers is a plus run-blocker but suspect in the passing game. Finally, center Lloyd Cushenberry has proven to be a well-rounded interior offensive lineman this season after struggling with run-blocking a season ago.

The backfield has been a veritable disaster when compared to historical usage and production trends under Sean Payton. Javonte Williams has been utilized as the primary early-down back while Samaje Perine has played as the change of pace and long down-and-distance back, as we thought coming into the season, but the efficiency and utilization have been far below expectations. The Broncos are currently tied with Kansas City and Chicago with only 22.5 rush attempts per game through two weeks, and the backfield tandem has accounted for just 25.5 running back opportunities per game. Considering a snap split almost down the middle (45/45 percent snap rate split in Week 1 and 50/45 percent snap rate split in Week 2), that doesn’t leave a ton of opportunities for either back. That said, Vic Fangio’s nickel-heavy, 2-high defensive scheme would seem to give opposing coaches the ability to attack more relentlessly on the ground, something we could see transpire here assuming the game script doesn’t get out of hand.

Circling back to the uncertainty regarding how we expect the Broncos offense to operate, we haven’t had a game where all their pieces have been healthy yet. Jerry Jeudy missed Week 1 and returned to 68 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 2. Tight end Greg Dulcich was placed on injured reserve following Week 1 with another hamstring injury. Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson, two practice squad wide receivers, have played around 50 percent of the offensive snaps through two games. Rookie wide receiver and field-stretcher Marvin Mims has played 17 and 16 offensive snaps during the first two weeks of the season. Coming into the season, I expected Mims to be an integral piece in the offense, capable of exploiting a defense deep and manipulating safeties. That hasn’t come to fruition just yet – Payton might want more from Mims than what he has seen to this point. Once at peak health and effectiveness, I would expect Mims to operate in the “Z” role, with Sutton playing his standard “X” and Jeudy allowed to return to a heavier slot role. Jeudy’s low snap rate in Week 2 means less when you consider he was in a route on every designed pass play and played 30 of his 45 snaps from the slot, which is right in line with his 2021 slot snap rate (when he was more of a full-time slot receiver). Tight end Adam Trautman should continue to serve as the primary every-down tight end in the absence of Dulcich, but brings limited upside with a more catch-and-fall athletic profile.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams combine to run a play every 25.6 seconds, by far the fastest expected pace from a game this season.
• Austin Ekeler did not practice Wednesday and head coach Brandon Staley somewhat quietly told reporters during Monday Night Football that there is “no timeline” for his eventual return. If reading the tea leaves here, that tells me Ekeler won’t return until likely Week 4 or 5.
• Eric Kendricks, one of the top free agent additions to the LAC defense this offseason, remained a DNP on Wednesday with a hamstring injury.
• Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are quietly back-to-back in league-wide rankings of the percentage of the team’s air yards this season. Keenan has seen 19 targets and Williams has seen 18.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have played with pace (25.9 seconds per play ranks sixth in the league this year) but have been one of the most dynamic and fluid offenses in the league, hammering the run game against Vic Fangio’s Cover-3 defense in Week 1 and shifting to an extremely pass-heavy offense against the stout run defense of the Titans in Week 2. But this was always theorized to be the case after the team ditched former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and replaced him with Kellen Moore this offseason. We’ve talked about what that shift in philosophy was likely to mean for this offense dating all the way back to our exploration in the team breakdowns for the Best Ball + product back in April. In this spot, against a Vikings defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in rush EPA allowed, I expect we see a more run-balanced offense through Joshua Kelley (assuming Ekeler is out, which appears likely at this time). Even in a run-balanced approach in Week 1 against the Dolphins, quarterback Justin Herbert attempted a healthy yet unspectacular 33 passes, with 19 of those targets flowing through Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Ekeler.

Kelley was on the field for a borderline elite 79 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 2 without Ekeler, which should give us a solid idea of what his usage will look like against an opponent they should be able to attack on the ground. Back in Week 1 in a similar spot, Ekeler and Kelley combined for 32 attempts for 208 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and 47 yards on six targets through the air. Kelley is unlikely to see 30+ running back opportunities here, but 22-24 is well within his range of outcomes and comes in a good spot. Elijah Dotson appears to have passed Isaiah Spiller on the depth chart in the backfield, playing nine offensive snaps in Week 2 to just four for Spiller. From a macro perspective, the Chargers ran 81 offensive plays from scrimmage in a Week 1 shootout with the Dolphins and 68 in Week 2 against the pace-down Titans, meaning an expectation of 75+ offensive plays considering the pace-up nature of each of these offenses is a valid conclusion.

As discussed above, the bulk of the volume through the air in this offense flows through three spots – Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and the running backs. Kelley is not on the same level as a guy like Ekeler when it comes to pass-catching abilities, meaning we could see another game where the bulk of the aerial work is fed through Allen and Williams. Allen currently sports a solid 27.1 percent team target market share with a solid-for-him 11.7 aDOT, while Williams sports a 25.7 percent team target market share and modest-for-him 8.4 aDOT. Quentin Johnston ceded work to some dude named Derius Davis in Week 2, dropping from a 27 percent snap rate in Week 1, to 15 percent in Week 2. If you followed my work in Best Ball, this should not come as a surprise. The Chargers have continued to operate a tight end rotation primarily between Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr., with the former seeing the bulk of his work between the 20s and the latter being utilized at a heavier rate in the red zone. Neither provides a bankable profile on what amounts to an expectation of around 50 percent of the offensive snaps. The highly concentrated nature of this pass offense provides paths to upside even if the Chargers adopt a more run-balanced nature in this spot.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The best DFS plays from this game are the defenses.
• Zach Wilson kills the value of the Jets skill players.
• Both Patriots TEs are in play for different reasons.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has a path to 20 touches.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bill Belichick finds himself in a spot that he hasn’t been in the past 20 years. Remarkably, Bill hasn’t started a season 0-2 since 2001! That is an insane run and highlights how great Tom Brady was for such a long time. Everyone has heard the stat that only a small percentage of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. The numbers since 1990 are 31 out of 270 teams (just over 11%) that have made the playoffs. That’s scary statistical territory for the Patriots. That number drops all the way down to only six teams since the NFL merger (1979) that have made the playoffs after starting 0-3. The Patriots need to win this game to feel like this isn’t already a wasted year. 

The Patriots new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien always felt like a familiar face, rather than an aggressive hire. The only NFL success on his resume came as Tom Brady’s QB coach. That’s like growing up in America, going to a foreign speaking country, taking an English class, and getting an A. The Patriots offense looks like it knows they’re supposed to play fast, but they don’t know how to play fast. It’s as if a toddler is being screamed at to run but can only muster a few quick steps before falling to their knees. The Patriots lead the league in no-huddle rate and rank third in situational neutral pass rate. Despite all the play volume, they’ve only scored 20 and 17 points. They played two close games against good teams (Eagles & Dolphins) but that’s largely because Belichick can get the most out of his defense. As of now, it seems like the Patriots have changed offensive philosophies and are going to run an up-tempo, pass leaning offense. However, they are 0-2, and this matchup favors trying to run, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them be the same old “adaptable” Patriots and come out running. Expect a balanced attack, that tries to establish the run more than the first two games but also plays with more tempo than we’ve seen in previous years from the Patriots.  

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The tropical storm moving up the east coast over the weekend could affect this one – current expectations are winds up to 20-25 mph but with little to no rain.
• These two teams combine to account for over 72 offensive plays run from scrimmage per team per game, well above the league average of just over 65.
• While both offenses can be considered top-half units, both defenses have largely suppressed scoring on a per-drive basis (Buffalo ranks eighth in red zone touchdown rate allowed, and Washington ranks third).
• Dawson Knox missed practice Wednesday with a back injury.
• Logan Thomas missed practice Wednesday with a concussion.
• The Buffalo defense has faced the fewest plays through two weeks at just 92.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills have continued their recent trend of an emphasis on the passing game but have surprisingly played at a snail’s pace to begin the season, carrying the league’s third-highest pass rate over expectation but averaging 30.9 seconds per play (29th) through two weeks. Even with the modest pace, Buffalo has run 69 and 78 offensive plays in their first two games, well above the league-wide average of just over 65. The Bills have shifted to a more bend-don’t-break defensive philosophy built around nickel alignments, which, if it continues forward, should allow opposing offenses to pile up the yards against them. That said, they have also allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opposing drives entering the red zone after finishing last season ranked second overall at 45.61 percent. Teams that crack the defense in the red zone against Buffalo will have the chance to send games against them to the moon, but those should be considered largely few and far between. After the selection of tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of this year’s draft, the Bills have played from 12-personnel at the highest rate in the league (73 percent in Week 1 and 50 percent in Week 2). It appears as if they’re still trying to figure out their offensive personnel groupings, but we should largely expect them to carry those tendencies forward for as long as Knox and Kincaid remain healthy (that bears weight this week because Knox missed Wednesday’s practice with a back injury).

James Cook is the lead back in this offense. That said, he has played exactly 59 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the first two games and has come off the field in the red zone at a troubling rate. Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have mixed in for the remainder of the backfield snaps. Both Murray and Harris have found the end zone while Cook has not, highlighting the team’s propensity to bring in one of their bigger backs in the red zone. The other side of that discussion is the continued usage of Cook in the passing game, who has seen ten targets through two contests. The Commanders have allowed Arizona backs and Denver backs to rush for 4.5 yards per carry, ninth most in the league. The final piece to consider here is the relative strength-on-strength nature of the matchup behind a Bills offensive line that blocked to 2.2 yards before contact in Week 2 against a Washington defense that boasts one of the most talented defensive lines in the league.

From a baseline expectation, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis should be viewed as the only near-every-down pass-catchers for the Bills moving forward. All of Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, and Quintin Morris are likely to mix in sporadically, with both Knox and Kincaid the two that could see the most week-to-week variation in their playing time dependent upon matchup and game plan. We know this offense is built around Josh Allen and what he can do both on the ground and through the air. Although Diggs continues to carry a non-elite snap rate (85.6 percent), he has been in a route on 100 percent of the team’s pass plays. The bigger concern is a continued emphasis on intermediate, more possession-style areas of the route tree, as evidenced by his modest 8.5 aDOT. His yards per route run rests at a non-elite 2.05 (28th), which is markedly lower than the 11.2 aDOT and 2.87 YPRR values from a season ago. Davis’ deep role (13.3 aDOT) and high route participation rate (also 100 percent) continue to provide tantalizing upside in the face of a low targets per route run rate (13.8 percent) and target market share (14.9 percent).

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Bryce Young’s status is in doubt due to an ankle injury that he is nursing on a short week after playing on Monday. Andy Dalton will start if Young is unable to play.
• Seattle’s defense has not performed well through the first two weeks of the season but they salvaged a win in Week 2.
• “Stoppable force against movable object” is the best way to describe the matchup between Carolina’s offense and Seattle’s defense.
• Seattle’s offense has struggled to get their ground game going and may be better served using their passing game weapons aggressively early.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Carolina has passed the ball on 63% of their offensive plays so far this season but that rate is actually 6.9% lower than expected based on their game scripts. In Week 1, they lost an ugly, low scoring game against the Falcons and then did the same at home against the Saints in Week 2 on Monday night. Carolina is averaging 13.5 points through two games and has just over 500 combined yards in those outings. It has been a rough start to the Frank Reich/Bryce Young era in Carolina as the offense has appeared anything but explosive or efficient. Young is dead last in the NFL in yards-per-pass-attempt at 4.2, meaning that not only is Carolina reluctant to throw the ball, but when they do so they are not doing it well. Those decisions are likely correlated but still, it makes it difficult to threaten defenses when you are so inept in that area.

This week Carolina travels to Seattle for a matchup with a defense that has given up 30+ points in each of their first two games. Seattle’s defense is designed in a way that theoretically protects against big plays but also opens them up to intermediate level chunk plays. It will be interesting to see if Carolina can break out of their funk a bit this week after the Rams and Lions had their way with the Seahawks. Carolina’s offense currently ranks 31st in the league in yards-per-play, which is generally regarded as one of the more predictive stats for future performance. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense ranks 30th in the league in yards-per-play allowed. This dichotomy leaves a scenario where something has to break. The likeliest outcome is somewhere in the middle. Carolina’s offense will improve from what we have seen and Seattle’s defense will not be shredded to the extent of the first two weeks. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is unlikely to play in this game, leaving veteran QB Andy Dalton to take the reins. Dalton’s presence may result in a slightly more aggressive downfield attack, although Seattle’s conservative defense and deep coverage shells should keep the focus in the short to intermediate areas of the field. DJ Chark made his debut in Week 2 and his presence often opens things up for the teams he has played on, but this matchup does not lend itself to a high degree of downfield passing. Carolina will likely once again lean on the run to a greater degree than expected while using Adam Thielen, Hayden Hurst, and Jonathan Mingo as zone beaters as extensions of the running game and on intermediate routes.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Cowboys have steamrolled two overmatched opponents so far and now face another lower-tier team.
• Arizona has played a couple of solid and entertaining games while maintaining their organization’s apparent focus on building for 2024 with good draft position.
• Dallas has potentially the best defense in the league and is terrorizing opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks.
• Tony Pollard has become the bell-cow that we have always wanted him to be while CeeDee Lamb has morphed into a true alpha.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dominant. That’s about the only word you need to describe the Cowboys season so far. Through two weeks, they have outscored their opponents 70-10 and seven of the 10 points they have given up came on a busted coverage / missed tackle in the second quarter against the Jets. Outside of that one big play, the Cowboys defense has been downright dominant. Their offense has been fine, but not great – but it really hasn’t had to be. The defense has been so good that the offense has spent a lot of time playing conservatively and attacking short fields – which likely has a lot to do with their ranking of 24th in the NFL in yards per play. This week, Dallas gets another stop on its tour of matchups with overmatched opponents – they head to the desert against an 0-2, but surprisingly competitive, Cardinals team.

It is hard to get a full grasp on how this Cowboys team wants to play this season. They have been an elite offense that plays aggressively when Dak Prescott is on the field in recent years, but Mike McCarthy was adamant this offseason about wanting his team to be built around its defense and running game. Through two games, they really haven’t been pushed at all and have ended up in about the most positive game scripts you can write up against offenses that pose no threat. This week, against an Arizona team that many left for dead before the year, we may get the truest version of the Cowboys offense we’ve seen to date. The reason for this is the Cardinals’ philosophy and game plan are conservative on both sides of the ball. Through two games, Arizona has not committed a first-half turnover, and its defensive philosophy is conservative and focused on avoiding big plays from their opponents. This worked for the first three halves of the Cardinals’ season against the Commanders (in Eric Bienemy’s debut as Washington’s offensive coordinator) and the Giants before Brian Daboll had his “Becky the ‘Ice Box’ O’Shea shows up at halftime” moment that turned the Giants offense loose.

The Cardinals’ approach is relevant to Dallas because their likelihood of avoiding turnovers and moving the ball methodically and conservatively should keep them in it and avoid the Cowboys being gifted short fields that keep their offense from being forced to spread its wings. The Cowboys threw the ball 26 times in the first half against the Jets, compared to only 18 rush attempts (three of which were by Prescott). This means that the Cowboys were not handing the ball off on 66% of their offensive plays during that time – a pretty aggressive number for a team whose coach self-proclaimed to be built on the running game. We should expect a similar approach from the Cowboys offense in this game to what we saw in the first half of the Jets game, and given the personnel strengths of the respective opponents, we could see a very productive first half from Dallas. Pollard and Lamb have established themselves as the clear engines of this offense and will be heavily involved in a variety of ways, with the rest of the team fighting for scraps.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Chiefs narrowly escaped an 0-2 start by squeaking by the Jaguars in Week 1 and now look to get their offense back on track.
• The entire Bears organization is reeling right now, both on and off the field.
• The Bears have been using Justin Fields in sub-optimal ways through two weeks and given the putrid results we should expect some adjustments in Week 3.
• Kansas City likely needs to run the ball more often to increase the efficiency of their offense due to their lack of “matchup winners” in their receiving corps.
• This is likely to be the most lopsided outcome on this week’s slate.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Chaos. That’s the best way to describe the current state of things in Chicago. The Bears entered the season with high hopes after “winning” the offseason with some free agent signings, all their cap space, and loading up on draft picks after trading the #1 overall pick. A little over a week after the first regular season snap, however, things are beginning to unravel. The defense continues to be put on notice on a weekly basis while the offense has regressed. They have stopped using Justin Fields on designed runs (only TWO through two games) and there have been several plays where film study will show he has missed wide open receivers on what should be elementary reads. The running game has also struggled, as the lack of designed runs for Fields is shrinking the running lanes for running backs and the offensive line is getting decimated with injuries that are making those running lanes few and far between. The end result of all of this is a passing game that strikes no fear in defenses and a running game that can’t consistently gain positive yardage to create favorable down and distance situations.

As we enter Week 3, the Bears are facing a litany of challenges. There are some things going on off the field that are concerning, but we won’t get into that here. The biggest thing to consider is what their offensive approach will actually be. Considering how poorly this season has started for the offense and the comments of Justin Fields to the media this week, smart money is on a change of approach that more closely resembles the late-2022 Bears offense that ran the ball with Fields and their backs, focused on easier reads, and let Fields play more “sandlot” ball by utilizing his athleticism to ad-lib. Chicago has to expect the Chiefs to score points here, which means they should enter with the mindset of maximizing points. However, they also have to be cognizant of being too aggressive and getting into a track meet. In an ideal world, they would eat up a lot of clock and shorten the game while minimizing turnovers. The reality is that they are likely going to struggle to stay on the field and sustain drives unless Fields is able to make enough off-script plays to keep them in the game. If they can get to halftime with both teams scoring under 14 points, they have a chance to muck it up in the third quarter and hope for some good bounces late.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Man, some of these Showdowns are just gross. Sunday night has the Steelers visiting the Raiders for a 43 total game with the Raiders favored by 2.5. Kenny Pickett has looked awful this year but this is the easiest matchup he’s faced so far. Jimmy Garoppolo has looked equally awful and the matchup isn’t great for him, but at least he has good weapons and gets to play at home?

Las Vegas 

We’ll start with the Raiders. Josh Jacobs has a stranglehold on this backfield, playing 80% and 73% of the snaps in the first two games (despite Week 2 being an absolute blowout by the Bills in which Jacobs rushed for NEGATIVE yards . . . good grief). The Steelers defense so far has been very strong against opposing passing attacks but atrocious against the run, giving up just shy of 400 total yards on the ground in two games. Of course, that came against two elite rushing attacks, but the Raiders are no slouches in this area. The Raiders are home favorites and the path of least resistance is on the ground, and Jacobs has a bell cow role. I’m comfortable saying he’s my favorite skill position play in the game here, even above one of my man-crushes in Davante Adams. Talent, matchup, and opportunity are all there for Jacobs. Behind him, we’ll see smidges of Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White, who can be used as (thin) punt options. If you want to play the “what happens if Jacobs gets hurt” card, I’d bet on White being the next man up ahead of Abdullah.

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In the air, the Raiders have looked fairly dysfunctional so far. Not because of their pass catchers, who are #good, but because of Jimmy G, who has looked #bad. Garoppolo only has 26 and 24 pass attempts in their first two games, and while I expect he’ll average closer to 28-30 for the season, this is unlikely to be a high-volume passing offense . . . but it IS a pretty condensed passing offense. In Week 1, of 26 pass attempts, 9 went to Adams and 10 went to Jakobi Meyers, good for a “better than the Dolphins” target concentration with 73% of passes going to the top 2 WRs (another three went to Jacobs). In Week 2, with Meyers out, Adams saw 8 targets, Jacobs 6, while nobody else saw more than 2. With Meyers back, we can expect the offense to flow through him, Adams, and Jacobs, with everyone else being something of an afterthought (poor Hunter Renfrow). Meyers had an absolute smash game in Week 1 with Denver’s Patrick Surtain limiting Adams, and I do think Meyers will have some more nice games in this offense, but at $8,600 he feels overpriced to me (I think we’re largely past the “box score watcher” phase of DFS, so I doubt he’ll get a ton of ownership). You can certainly view him as a pay up to be contrarian option. Adams, though, looks like an elite play. Remember that last year down the stretch, at least one of Adams or Jacobs put up a smash score almost every single week . . . I expect we’re likely to see a similar concentration this season. Given the matchup, I have a slight preference for Jacobs, then Adams, then Meyers if ranking the Raiders skill position players. Literally, everyone else is nothing more than a dart throw until we see this offense actually throw to other players. They’re all cheap, and the tight ends are my favorites because we know they’ll be on the field – Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are both non-crazy punt options. Renfrow, Kristian Wilkerson, Abdullah, and White are all very thin options but they do belong in MME player pools.

Pittsburgh

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The first of two Monday games has the Eagles visiting the Bucs in a battle of (shockingly) 2-0 teams. This game has a 45 point total with the Eagles significant road favorites at -5, and frankly, they are the better team essentially everywhere. The Bucs have surprised early on (largely based on pretty capable QB play from Baker Mayfield), but beating the Vikings and Bears is very different from taking on the Eagles. 

Tampa Bay

We’ll start on the Tampa side where Rachaad White has a stranglehold on the backfield, playing 79% and 72% of the snaps in the first two weeks and handling 41 running back opportunities (34 carries, 7 targets). RB2 Sean Tucker has a reasonable 15 opportunities of his own, while Chase Edmonds is hurt and now on injured reserve. It should be White and Tucker this week (though they’ll certainly have at least one more back active, I don’t expect that back is going to see the field unless there’s an injury). After smashing against the Bears, White gets a significantly tougher matchup this week against an Eagles team that boasts an elite run defense (and really an elite defense all around). He’s a volume and “running backs in single game samples can always fall into touchdowns” play and there isn’t anything to really excite me about him. I like pairing him with the Tampa defense, thinking that if Tampa can slow down the Eagles, that gives White more opportunities. Tucker would be a classic “RB2 with a real role in Showdown” play except he’s priced up at $5k, which is ridiculous for his role. He needs extreme good fortune or White to get hurt in order to have a chance at paying off that tag.

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The Tampa passing game is of course led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has shown a real connection with Mayfield in the early going with 237 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 targets (never let it be said that Mayfield is afraid to chuck it – he is most definitely not), while Godwin is in his more conservative slot role and has a still-healthy 109 receiving yards on 14 targets. We’re used to seeing Evans and Godwin have very similar stat lines over the course of the season and very similar prices in Showdown, but so far this season we have a significant divergence, including in price, where Evans is $1,800 more expensive. This creates an important choice for us in this Showdown: do we lean into Evans’ early-season success and connection with Mayfield, or do we bet on that reverting to what we’re used to and bet more heavily on Godwin? There’s no right answer here, and you’ll have to decide for yourself, but personally, I’m going to let my winners ride and focus more heavily on Evans – not only does he have two touchdowns, but he’s leading Godwin in targets and in air yards, pointing to his role potentially being larger overall than Godwin’s with Mayfield at QB. I’m betting that this is a real change due to a new QB, and hoping the field will play the two WRs at roughly equal weight as they generally do in Showdown. Behind these guys, the Bucs have deployed rookie Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins, and Rakim Jarrett. Until I started writing this article I had no idea who the latter two were but Palmer is an exciting rookie player who is likely to see his role grow throughout the season. Thompkins is a speedster and that of course gives him upside, while Jarrett seems like “just a guy” with the thinnest role of the three. I’d rank them as Palmer, Thompkins, and Jarrett, with Palmer a “real” play who can be used in any type of lineup. I would reserve Thompkins and Jarrett for large-field MME dart throws. Tight end is dominated by Cade Otton, who has played 97% of the snaps in each of the first two games. He’s not a high-upside guy, really, but at $4,200 he’s a reasonable play who projects fairly similarly to the kickers. Meh. Nothing exciting here, nothing to really suggest the matchup really favors him, he’s just a guy to mix in who is likely to beat the kickers if he finds the end zone, but otherwise, the kickers are stronger plays. The Bucs have also run 12-personnel formations at roughly a 50% rate so far, using Ko Kieft and David Wells as primary blocking tight ends. You can play them but they’re unlikely to see much receiving work, if any (they do have five targets between them but for a 2/-10/0 receiving line . . . and yes you read that correctly, it’s negative 10 yards). They’re also punt plays who are inversely correlated with the tertiary wide receivers, and so I would have a rule to only play one of those five guys.

Philadelphia

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 3 closes out with two extremely surprising teams as the shockingly capable Rams visit the bad and now injured Bengals. Cincinnati is favored here but only by about 2 points depending on what book you’re looking at, which before the season nobody would believe. The Rams have exceeded expectations offensively while the Bengals have looked awful and now Joe Burrow is hurt with an aggravation of his preseason calf strain. Obviously, Burrow is a huge factor here. The latest news we have is that he took first-team snaps in Sunday’s walkthrough, but keep in mind this is just a walkthrough and not a full practice. I think he’s more likely to play than not, but it’s up in the air. 

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, Cam Akers has been traded (lol), leaving Kyren Williams as the primary running back. Williams played 95% of the snaps in Week 2 and handled 24 running back opportunities (14 carries and a massive 10 targets), while backup Ronnie Rivers played 5% of the snaps and saw a single, solitary opportunity. It’s always tough to trust Rams backfields, but this one appears to belong to Kyren. The matchup here is fine against a not-imposing Bengals defense, and Kyren’s role appears completely game-script proof with his massive target volume last week. It feels weird to say that Kyren Williams at $9k looks underpriced, but frankly he does given his stranglehold on the backfield and his immense passing game role. 

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Okay, the passing game. Apparently, Puka Nacua is the next coming of Cooper Kupp. Through two games Puka has 15 and 20 targets, with 25 receptions for 266 yards. He’s near the top of the league in receiving yards and air yards, and he leads the league in targets . . . holy cow this guy is a monster. His price in Showdown has also gone $3,400 → $8,000 → $10,000, and so we’re left to think “what the heck do we do with this guy, he’s priced like a top-10 NFL WR just two games into his career!” He’s also questionable with an oblique injury but is expected to play. I am going to mostly avoid Puka in this game. Given his massive workload that is an absolutely terrifying stance to take, but I’m going to bet that A) he isn’t going to see NFL record-setting levels of targets for the rest of the season, and B) he’s talented but isn’t one of the top 10-15 WRs in the league, and C) that soft-tissue injuries are at high risk of mid-game aggravation. It would not at all surprise me if he totally burns me, and I’m NOT recommending everyone fade him but I think (pending seeing where ownership lands), that’s the stance I’m going to take. If Puka comes in at 40%+ ownership, I’ll largely avoid, and that’s the big stand I’m going to take on this game. But, look, there’s clearly a big-time bull case for Puka too. Matt Stafford has a long history of elevating WRs, as well as focusing on one key guy. 35 targets isn’t an accident, and while I VERY much doubt he averages 17.5 targets per game the rest of the season, it would not shock me to see him average 10-12 targets per game at least until Kupp returns. On paper, he’s a great play if we expect the role he’s had so far this season to continue. He’s a major decision point. You could fade him, you could go way overweight, or you could just be even with the expected ownership of the field and decide you don’t want to take a big stand on him and that you’ll differentiate elsewhere. 

Okay, that was a ton about Puka. Who else is on the Rams? Tutu Atwell has also been off to a fantastic start that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Pukamania, but Atwell has a line of 13/196/0 so far on 17 targets . . . not shabby at all. He’s also in that mid-price range that often gets overlooked in the stars/scrubs constructions that are so common in Showdown so you can guess that if I’m taking a stand on fading Puka, I’m going to make sure I’m overweight on Atwell. And then we have Van Jefferson. Jefferson is leading the wide receivers in snaps played, but he only has 9 targets on the year and 33 receiving yards . . . is it possible he’s just not good? That is entirely possible, and of course, Puka and Atwell vacuuming up targets doesn’t leave much for Van but at $4,400 it’s hard for me to ignore a guy who’s on the field almost every offensive snap with a good quarterback in a good matchup. Clearly, Van is not the WR1 in this offense, but given how the Rams operate out of 11 personnel on almost every snap, he’s extremely likely to see some positive regression at some point. At his incredibly cheap price, that’s a bet I want to make. Ben Skowronek and DeMarcus Robinson will eat up the (very few) remaining WR snaps, but this team plays their primary guys a LOT, so there isn’t much left there. At tight end, it’s Tyler Higbee on the field for almost every snap in a reasonable floor, low upside role. He’s around a ton but he’s in a very short area role in this offense so without a lot of volume and/or a touchdown, he’s not likely to be able to pay off his $6,200 salary. And with the emergence of other weapons for the Rams, the likelihood of a volume spike is pretty low. I’m very comfortable going underweight here and just hoping he doesn’t run into a fluky 2 TD game. 

Cincinnati