XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The first of two Monday games has the Eagles visiting the Bucs in a battle of (shockingly) 2-0 teams. This game has a 45 point total with the Eagles significant road favorites at -5, and frankly, they are the better team essentially everywhere. The Bucs have surprised early on (largely based on pretty capable QB play from Baker Mayfield), but beating the Vikings and Bears is very different from taking on the Eagles.
Tampa Bay
We’ll start on the Tampa side where Rachaad White has a stranglehold on the backfield, playing 79% and 72% of the snaps in the first two weeks and handling 41 running back opportunities (34 carries, 7 targets). RB2 Sean Tucker has a reasonable 15 opportunities of his own, while Chase Edmonds is hurt and now on injured reserve. It should be White and Tucker this week (though they’ll certainly have at least one more back active, I don’t expect that back is going to see the field unless there’s an injury). After smashing against the Bears, White gets a significantly tougher matchup this week against an Eagles team that boasts an elite run defense (and really an elite defense all around). He’s a volume and “running backs in single game samples can always fall into touchdowns” play and there isn’t anything to really excite me about him. I like pairing him with the Tampa defense, thinking that if Tampa can slow down the Eagles, that gives White more opportunities. Tucker would be a classic “RB2 with a real role in Showdown” play except he’s priced up at $5k, which is ridiculous for his role. He needs extreme good fortune or White to get hurt in order to have a chance at paying off that tag.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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The Tampa passing game is of course led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has shown a real connection with Mayfield in the early going with 237 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 targets (never let it be said that Mayfield is afraid to chuck it – he is most definitely not), while Godwin is in his more conservative slot role and has a still-healthy 109 receiving yards on 14 targets. We’re used to seeing Evans and Godwin have very similar stat lines over the course of the season and very similar prices in Showdown, but so far this season we have a significant divergence, including in price, where Evans is $1,800 more expensive. This creates an important choice for us in this Showdown: do we lean into Evans’ early-season success and connection with Mayfield, or do we bet on that reverting to what we’re used to and bet more heavily on Godwin? There’s no right answer here, and you’ll have to decide for yourself, but personally, I’m going to let my winners ride and focus more heavily on Evans – not only does he have two touchdowns, but he’s leading Godwin in targets and in air yards, pointing to his role potentially being larger overall than Godwin’s with Mayfield at QB. I’m betting that this is a real change due to a new QB, and hoping the field will play the two WRs at roughly equal weight as they generally do in Showdown. Behind these guys, the Bucs have deployed rookie Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins, and Rakim Jarrett. Until I started writing this article I had no idea who the latter two were but Palmer is an exciting rookie player who is likely to see his role grow throughout the season. Thompkins is a speedster and that of course gives him upside, while Jarrett seems like “just a guy” with the thinnest role of the three. I’d rank them as Palmer, Thompkins, and Jarrett, with Palmer a “real” play who can be used in any type of lineup. I would reserve Thompkins and Jarrett for large-field MME dart throws. Tight end is dominated by Cade Otton, who has played 97% of the snaps in each of the first two games. He’s not a high-upside guy, really, but at $4,200 he’s a reasonable play who projects fairly similarly to the kickers. Meh. Nothing exciting here, nothing to really suggest the matchup really favors him, he’s just a guy to mix in who is likely to beat the kickers if he finds the end zone, but otherwise, the kickers are stronger plays. The Bucs have also run 12-personnel formations at roughly a 50% rate so far, using Ko Kieft and David Wells as primary blocking tight ends. You can play them but they’re unlikely to see much receiving work, if any (they do have five targets between them but for a 2/-10/0 receiving line . . . and yes you read that correctly, it’s negative 10 yards). They’re also punt plays who are inversely correlated with the tertiary wide receivers, and so I would have a rule to only play one of those five guys.
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