GAME OVERVIEW ::
By HILOW >>
- Jamaal Williams is likely out and Alvin Kamara has one final game remaining on his suspension.
- New Orleans is likely to get rookie Kendre Miller back from injury, as he practiced in full on Wednesday.
- The Saints backfield is expected to be some combination of Tony Jones Jr. and Miller, with the potential for increased involvement from Taysom Hill on the ground.
- Aaron Jones was a DNP in practice Wednesday while Christian Watson got in a limited session.
How New orleans Will Try To Win ::
The Saints have actually been playing with pace to start the season at a solid 26.7 seconds per play (seventh). Their pass rate over expectation (PROE) value has routinely been around the middle of the league under the current regime, and this season is no different. New Orleans has struggled to find the end zone to begin the season, averaging only 18.0 points scored per game with quarterback Derek Carr tossing just one touchdown pass through two games. Even so, New Orleans currently finds itself at a 2-0 record and atop the haphazard NFC South, having given up just one touchdown combined to the Panthers (scored with 1:16 remaining in the fourth quarter of Week 2) and the Titans (five field goals). Carr currently leads the league in average intended air yards at a robust 10.4 value, primarily through downfield looks to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, meaning eventually the bulk plays are likely to come for this offense. The standard Joe Barry off-coverage defensive scheme for the Packers has allowed the Bears and Falcons to average 378.5 yards of offense per game, which ranks 27th in the league through two weeks.
As mentioned above, the ground game should be a mix of Jones Jr. (the only back currently on the roster with NFL experience), Miller (the expected primary change-of-pace back entering the season), and the potential for perennial troll Hill to see increased utilization on the ground. Taysom has primarily been used at the quarterback position on designed draws on the ground to this point in the season, but we’ve seen the Saints dial up some interesting looks for their mega-utility player when given the time to prepare. This game could very much be an instance where they utilize Hill’s multi-faceted skill set heavier on the ground, particularly considering a matchup with a Packers team that has largely had no answer for mobile quarterbacks under Barry. The Packers’ defensive coordinator loves him some athletic linebackers, which is typically a plus against mobile quarterbacks, but his high zone rate and prevent–style defensive scheme typically keeps safeties deep and out of the box and linebackers both rushing and dropping in coverage. That has led to the propensity to get absolutely burned by mobile quarterbacks in the past, particularly if the opposing offense is capable to scheming up designed runs to the side of incoming pressure – something I expect Pete Carmichael to do in this spot.
The Saints have utilized an interesting spread of offensive personnel alignments through two weeks, which is another nod to Carmichael and his ability to game plan to simultaneously maximize the talent he has at his disposal and take advantage of the shortcomings of the opposing defense. In Week 1, that meant an offense primarily built around 11-personnel against the Titans. In Week 2, however, that meant extreme 12-personel rates against the Panthers. As in, the team was in 12-personnel at a 41 percent clip even before you factor in Hill’s 40 percent snap rate, which we know comes from all over the formation (but he’s listed as a tight end). In this spot, against the previously examined Packers defense, I would expect another game of elevated 12-personnel alignments and increased reliance on Taysom. And the funniest part about that is Barry is the type of coach to not adjust his defensive scheme a lick during the game, typically heavily reliant on whatever game plan he comes up with before first kick. As such, Carmichael is likely to continue riding what works early, and I have a sneaky suspicion it will involve increased involvement for Hill. Kieth Kirkwood has annoyingly taken a piece of the offensive pie from Shaheed this season, which has kept the latter around a 50 percent snap rate in consecutive weeks. One final note here is the presence of tight end Foster Moreau on the injury report Wednesday, when he missed practice with an ankle injury.
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