XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 begins with Carolina visiting Chicago for a 40 total game in which the Bears are favored by 3.5. When the Bears are favored, you know things are weird. The big question for this game is around Justin Fields and whether will he make his return from the thumb injury he suffered in Week 6. So far he’s gotten two limited designations, but they’re just estimated practice reports, so they don’t mean much. Hopefully, we’ll get more information on Wednesday, but I have to write this game up, so here we go. I’m going to assume Fields misses one more game and Tyson Bagent starts again because frankly the Bears are terrible and there’s really no reason to rush him back. 

INJURY UPDATE: Justin Fields, Khalil Herbert and DJ Chark are out

• Khalil Herbert looked like he might have had a shot to return this week, but will not, so the Bears writeup all stays the same.
• Where we have a change is on the Panthers side, with DJ Chark being ruled out (somewhat to my surprise). That will push Terrace Marshall into a nearly full-time role, with Ihmir Smith-Marsette likely seeing a small handful of WR4 snaps.
• Smith-Marsette can be tossed into the MME punt player pool, while Marshall is suddenly going to be an interesting and popular play.
• Marshall has played over 50% of the snaps on three occasions this season and has 6, 8, and 10 targets in those games. Not shabby. They’re fairly short targets (his average yards per catch this season is just 7.2), which may actually be a mark in his favor due to the inaccuracy of Bryce Young. He also gets one of the best possible matchups a pass catcher could ask for. That’s a lot of volume in a good matchup for just $600. He’s a very strong on-paper play. He’s also likely to be very chalky.
• Given the difficult rushing matchup, I’m personally inclined to lean into the chalk here, and just make sure my lineups are differentiated elsewhere, but fading Marshall is absolutely a viable choice as well.

Chicago

We’ll start with the Bears run game. D’Onta Foreman has the lead back role, and even though his snap counts are relatively modest in that role, he has a solid lock on the actual touches. In the last four games, Foreman has 60 carries and eight targets, while backups Darrynton Evans and Roschon Johnson have 28/10 and 8/5, respectively. We know the Panthers defense, while generally not great all around, is especially vulnerable on the ground, and we know the Bears like to run the ball, with a 41% rushing play rate on the year (tied for 5th highest in the league). Assuming the Vegas line holds true and the Bears are playing from ahead, we can expect significant work from their backfield in a strong matchup. Foreman is primarily a yardage and touchdown back, averaging just two targets per game, but in a plus matchup and at $8,600, he’s very reasonably priced for his workload. Behind him, Johnson seems to have regained the RB2 role from Evans after returning from injury in Week 8 (Evans only played 9% of the snaps last week). We know Johnson is talented and we know he’s a capable pass catcher, making him a viable RB2 option at his price. Evans is a punt play.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Bears passing game, though, is tough to trust at the best of times and even more so with Bagent at quarterback. While Bagent has shown some flashes of aptitude (leading two scoring drives against a tough New Orleans defense last week), he has also thrown six interceptions and lost two fumbles in three and a half games. He’s averaging an extremely low 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 28th in the NFL (though ahead of Joe Burrow, which is hilarious). D.J. Moore at $10,600 is a tough sell here for that price. Yes, we have to spend the money somewhere, but yikes, that’s a lot of salary for a guy with just 20 targets in three Bagent starts for a total of 153 receiving yards. Moore is uber-talented, so you could bet on him finding his own way to success via a breakaway play or something like that, but there’s really nothing that makes him stand out here as anything more than a pay up to be contrarian kind of play. WR2 Darnell Mooney has spent most of the year in the $4-5k range but is up to $7,400 for this one despite only having two games of double-digit Draftkings points, one touchdown on the season, and a high of seven targets in a game while averaging under four. Yikes. WR3 Tyler Scott is on the field a fair bit but has only seen 17 total targets on the year – he’s a punt option, but not a significant member of the passing attack. Trent Taylor and Velus Jones Jr. can be considered as VERY thin punt plays who are playing only 10% of the snaps or so per game. 

At tight end, Cole Kmet seems to have built some rapport with Bagent, seeing 18 targets in the last two games (after a lovely zero in Bagent’s first full game in Week 8). Kmet fits Bagent’s short passing game plan very well, and at $6,600, he is both a very strong on-paper play and likely to be very popular. All the data points to him as long as Bagent is at quarterback (and frankly even before then – Kmet’s underlying metrics around yards per route run, target share, etc. are up in the elite tier of tight ends as Hilow noted earlier in the season). He’s a very sharp play. Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis will back up Kmet, with Lewis primarily a blocker – they’re both viable but thin punt options. 

Carolina

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another game in Germany with the Colts and the Patriots traveling overseas. I wonder what Europeans think of American football since we seem to keep sending pretty terrible games over there . . . then again, Europeans are used to watching sports where two teams just run back and forth for an hour with nobody able to score. Maybe they like it. I don’t know. Anyhow, there’s money to be made here. We have a 43 point Vegas total with Indy favored by 1.5, so essentially a pick’em. 

Indianapolis

On the Indy side, Jonathan Taylor looks back to bell cow status. Since returning, his snap counts look like 15% → 42% → 50% → 61% → 74%. He saw 23 opportunities last week, an elite number, but just wasn’t able to find any room to run because the Colts run-blocking is #bad and the Panthers sold out to stop the run in the second half. But, volume and talent are clearly on his Taylor’s side, with the matchup being fairly neutral (Pats are not an especially good defense, but that’s offset by the Colts being not an especially good offense). Taylor probably has the highest floor of any skill position player, but there are others who can contend with him for ceiling. Zack Moss at $8,800 is a wildly contrarian play as his snaps have plummeted (just 21% last week with seven carries and no passing game work). He would need JT to get hurt or some wild touchdown variance (he’d probably need two) in order to be optimal.

The Colts passing game is messy this week because rookie Josh Downs, who has quickly established himself as a key piece of the offense, is questionable with a knee injury. Downs played through a knee injury (I’m assuming the same one) last week but only played 20% of the snaps before departing. As of today (Thursday), he has not practiced, so I think it’s highly unlikely that he plays. That leaves Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Isaiah McKenzie, and probably Juwann Winfree at wide receiver (and they’ll probably call up a practice squad guy as well). Pittman is, obviously, a strong choice and one of the best skill position options in this game. Averaging 8.6 targets per game, he has scored double-digit Draftkings points in all but one game this season. He also has a whopping 15 targets inside the red zone (next on the team is Downs with just seven), tied for 2nd in the NFL with Ja’Marr Chase and behind only Davante Adams. Those are some good names to be hanging around. Pittman’s role is huge and Downs’ absence will only help him. He’s an awesome play. Pierce, on the other hand, is a tough guy to evaluate. He’s played the second most snaps on the team and over 90% of the snaps in all but one game, but he only has 32 targets on the season. As the primary deep threat receiver, his role is always going to be volatile, but we have only seen “bust” without any “boom” yet. Could Downs missing help get him going? Maybe, but he only saw two targets last week when Downs left early. He’s cheap, and he does have ceiling if he connects on a long one, but the floor is zero. McKenzie, on the other hand, has had almost no role in the offense until last week when he stepped in after Downs left, playing 44% of the snaps and catching two of three targets. He’s always been reasonably talented and makes for a solid value option at just $2,000. Winfree is a punt play. 

At tight end, the Colts have devolved into a 3-way split between Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree, and Mo Alie-Cox. Granson started the season in the clear lead, but the others have started really eating into his role. Ogletree left last week’s game early with a foot injury and has yet to practice, so if he misses that condenses things here (as well as adding Will Mallory as a thin punt option). If Ogletree plays, all of these guys are thin with Granson being the best on-paper play, then Ogletree, then Alie-Cox. If Ogletree misses, Granson becomes a confident value play while Alie-Cox moves from “really thin punt” to “still pretty thin but more viable than previously.” 

New England

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two defenses rank first and third in points allowed per game (BAL – 13.8, CLE – 17.4).
• The tale of the tape starts on the defensive side of the ball for both teams as the Browns rank first in DVOA against both the rush and pass while the Ravens rank third and second, respectively.
• Pierre Strong was on the Browns injury report Wednesday as a non-participant with a hamstring injury.
• Deshaun Watson is off the team’s injury report for the first time in over a month.
• Nothing jumps off the page as an elite GPP play from this game, although Lamar Jackson always carries elite upside in any matchup (and he’s highly unlikely to garner ownership in this matchup and due to his recent fantasy performances).

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns remain built from their defense outward, ranking third in the league in points allowed per game and leading the league in average time of possession (34:11) and offensive plays run from scrimmage per game (71.6). These two teams last played in Week 4 without Deshaun Watson, which resulted in a relative inability to move the football on offense and numerous shortened fields for the Ravens, ultimately leading to a lopsided 28-3 drudging. Watson hasn’t exactly been the poster child for ball security and offensive success this season, but the Browns should find more success with him under center when compared to the Week 4 meeting between these two sides. From a top-down perspective, the Browns would prefer to adopt a run-balanced approach on offense to leverage their defensive prowess, shortening games when able. The problem here is that their opponent is built in a similar way.

The Cleveland backfield has gone through multiple evolutions due to personnel changes this season, settling into a unit led by Jerome Ford when healthy. Ford has primarily been backed up by Kareem Hunt, who came back to the organization as a free agent during the year. Newcomer Pierre Strong has only been utilized in a meaningful way with one of those two not fully healthy this season, which they appear to be entering Week 10. Strong is also on the team’s injury report with a hamstring injury after not practicing on Wednesday. The matchup on the ground is middling, at best, against a Ravens defense holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry behind 1.34 yards allowed before contact. That said, nose tackle Michael Pierce missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness. Pierce has been a mainstay in the Ravens rush defense and would present a much cleaner on-paper matchup for the Cleveland ground game should he miss. Either way, expect Ford to lead the backfield with clear upside for 20+ running back opportunities, albeit in a difficult on-paper matchup.

As was mentioned above, the Browns lead the league in offensive plays run from scrimmage per game but rank just 19^th in pass attempts per game at 33.9, furthering the illustration of the run-balanced preference on offense. The Ravens are in man coverage at a top-10 rate this season, against which Amari Cooper and David Njoku are the only two Cleveland pass-catchers to return above average grades this year. Cooper has managed 0.62 fantasy points per route run against man coverage, good for 15^th in the league. Even so, the Ravens are about as elite as they come defensively, mixing scheme with talent to return one of the more lockdown units against the pass this year. The Browns dealt Donovan Peoples-Jones at the trade deadline, which opened up a starting perimeter role for rookie Cedric Tillman. Elijah Moore has played about half of his snaps from the slot but played there almost exclusively in the first game without DPJ in Week 9. Even so, expect his snaps to be limited by an offense that utilizes elevated rates of 12-personnel via Njoku, Harrison Bryant, and Jordan Akins.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• I’m writing this super early, so I don’t even have the first injury report from either team.
• It looks like Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase will carry an injury designation into the weekend after his big fall in Week 9, where he landed directly on his lower back while in full stretch trying to corral a deep ball. I expect him to play, but he’s probably going to carry a questionable designation into the weekend – that is fully me projecting it out.
• RB Dameon Pierce (ankle) and WR Robert Woods (foot) are the names to watch on the injury report this week for the Texans, each of whom missed the team’s Week 9 game against the Buccaneers. It’s entirely too early to say whether or not they’ll be back with the team in Week 10 against the Bengals, but we’ll write this game up as if they will miss and highlight where things would change should they play.
• This game carries elite upside, accompanied by a rather shaky floor due to significant uncertainties on both sides of the ball.
• Both teams rank in the bottom five in yards per carry and have demonstrated elite abilities through the air. If only looking at their recent tendencies and negating what we’ve seen during the rest of the season, this spot would absolutely pop on paper as a likely passing extravaganza. 

How houston Will Try To Win ::

We covered the tale of two seasons for Bobby Slowik and the Texans offense in multiple places last week leading into their game against the Bucs. Slowik had been one of the more forward-leaning offensive play callers through the first four weeks of the 2023 season before falling back into a shell during the second month. That took the form of the highest first-down rush rate in the league and innumerable long-down and distance-to-go situations. Then, with Dameon Pierce out of the lineup against the pass-funnel nature of the Buccaneers defense, Slowik dialed up 19 first-down pass plays (yea, they ran a lot of plays) and attacked downfield relentlessly to Tank Dell and Noah Brown and over the intermediate areas of the field to Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. We saw what happened with the more unpredictable nature of that style of play calling last week, which brings promise in a spot where the Texans will likely need to keep their collective feet on the gas once again. The potential return of Dameon Pierce could theoretically alter those play-calling tendencies back to a more muted stance, but it is more likely that we see Slowik remain aggressive knowing that Joe Burrow appears fully healthy and has returned to playing at a high level since the team’s Week 7 bye. In total, the Texans are right around league average in pass rate over expectation and rank ninth in seconds per play at 27.6, but we’ve seen Slowik adopt a more aggressive stance via game planning and game management in spots that seem to dictate it, which the Bengals very clearly present this week. All of that to say, even though Slowik’s tendencies have been a case of Jekyll and Hyde this season, the Bengals present the potential for Slowik to continue in a more pass-aggressive design in Week 10.

Even though the backfield personnel could change heading into Week 10 with the uncertainty surrounding lead back Dameon Pierce’s status, the overall feel of this offense should remain largely unchanged in that they have struggled on the ground through the first half of the 2023 season, regardless of who is seeing the usage in the backfield. The Texans rank 30^th as a team in yards per carry at 3.3 ypc, Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary both hold a meager 3.5 yards per touch, and the Texans offensive line ranks 31^st in yards generated before contact this season (1.05, ahead of only the Panthers). The Bengals rank 31^st in yards allowed per carry (5.0) and have yielded 1.48 yards before contact this season, which introduces some level of uncertainty regarding how aggressive through the air we expect Slowik to be in this spot. That is to say; the pure matchup presents a very different look than what the team saw last week against a clear pass-funnel defense in the Bucs.

As such, we should view the Texans pass offense as a unit that carries a ton of upside against a Bengals pass defense that ranks 10^th in DVOA but has allowed the fourth most net yards per attempt through the air and a 63.5 percent completion rate against. We should also remember that Slowik has demonstrated some night and day play-calling tendencies that put their offense behind the sticks for an entire month of play before last week’s reversion to more of what we saw during the first month of the season. Nico Collins remains the top option from an efficiency-per-route perspective against both man and zone coverage this season, but he also has just one game with double-digit targets this season and has a maximum of six targets over the previous four games. Just like the offense as a whole, Collins should primarily be viewed as a player carrying elite ceiling that comes with a rather shaky floor. The same can be said of Tank Dell, Noah Brown (less so for Robert Woods, should he return, who does not carry the same per-touch upside as the rest of the group), and tight end Dalton Schultz, although Schultz has the matchup working in his favor against a Bengals defense that has struggled with in-line tight ends this season as they continue to work through the departures of both All-Pro safeties this offseason. 

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY hilow >>

• WR Deebo Samuel finally finds himself as a full participant in practice this week and is expected to return to action against the Jaguars following two missed contests and the team’s Week 9 bye.
• OT Trent Williams has yet to practice this week nearly four weeks after his ankle injury. Not the best look coming out of the team’s bye week.
• WR Zay Jones got in a limited session Wednesday as he attempts to make it back to game action following five missed games in the team’s last six. I tentatively expect Jones to return to action after a largely lost season to this point.
• The question with the 49ers isn’t so much will they produce, it’s where will the production come from and can their opponent keep pace?

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

We know the drill by now with these 49ers, who bring a weekly slow pace of play (32^nd-ranked 31.2 seconds per play) and bottom-10 Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to the table. Their highly concentrated, forward-leaning offense is primarily limited by a coach that doesn’t necessarily aim to score as many points as possible every time his team touches the football, so much as he tries to methodically control the game towards a victory. We know the offense to run primarily through Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle, an offense that is as hard to figure out for fantasy purposes as it is for their opponents on a weekly basis. Not that we can’t count on weekly production as much as any one of those four primary contributors can erupt in any spot, which makes it more difficult to narrow down when all four are active. With all four active, concentrated volume is highly unlikely to amass away from McCaffrey, with the primary pass-catchers most reliant on efficiency and touchdowns to return elite scoring. By DVOA, this is a difficult spot on paper against a defense that ranks in the top five against both the pass and run, but micro matchups matter far less for the 49ers than they do for most other teams around the league. In earnest, this is one of those teams that can win in many different ways and beat difficult matchups, with the more interesting aspect of this game being Jacksonville’s potential to keep pace. As we’ve covered in numerous spots this season, the norm for the 49ers is that they hang 30 points on the scoreboard, leaving situations where their opponents can potentially keep up against their own suffocating defense highly valuable for fantasy purposes.

McCaffrey leads the league in rush yards and reception yards at running back through the halfway point in the season, on pace for over 1,300 yards on the ground and almost 600 yards through the air, in addition to being on track for a lol-worthy 26 touchdowns. His 5.6 yards per touch ranks eighth in the league, but his massive 44 red-zone opportunities leads the league by a wide margin. Furthermore, he has played all but two offensive snaps over the previous two games for the 49ers, rendering both Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason completely irrelevant in the process. The matchup is poor on paper against a Jacksonville defense holding opponents to just 3.6 yards per carry (fourth) behind a middling 1.33 yards allowed before contact and a solid fourth overall rating in DVOA against the run. Where the Jaguars have really struggled is containing running backs through the air, having allowed the most receptions to opposing backs this season (60). All of that to say, McCaffrey should be just fine in this spot and always carries the potential to put the rest of the league on notice in any matchup. Oh yeah, and there’s that little bit about scoring in 17 straight games and the like.

Aiyuk. Samuel. McCaffrey. Kittle. Any one of those four names can return elite GPP production in any given game. The trick isn’t as much as will any of them have a good game as it is which of those guys will have a good game. The Jaguars have played the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage this season and blitz at an above-average 29.4 percent clip, which sets up as another spot for Kittle to be utilized at an in-line position at an increased rate, particularly if Williams misses again. Both Samuel and Aiyuk are right around a 24 percent targets-per-route-run (TPRR) rate against zone coverage this season, trailed slightly by Kittle and McCaffrey. Compare that to the 34.5 percent TPRR of Aiyuk against man coverage and it becomes even trickier to figure out where the production is likeliest to flow from in this spot. Despite the high DVOA against the pass, the Jaguars have allowed top-10 marks to tight ends and wide receivers this season, most often ceding production to the intermediate middle of the field in front of their safeties. Again, the problem for us is that all four primary pass-catchers run routes to those areas of the field at elevated rates.

HOW jacksonville WILL TRY TO WIN ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY hilow >>

• Joshua Dobbs is likely to draw the start at quarterback for the Vikings with Jaren Hall concussed, a role the former is unlikely to relinquish for the remainder of the season.
• K.J. Osborn also suffered a concussion in Week 9 and is unlikely to play against the Saints.
• T.J. Hockenson was limited in practice on Wednesday but appears likely to play. He also represents the team’s best option to move the ball through the air in this spot.
• Justin Jefferson had his 21-day practice window activated and returned to a limited session on Wednesday, but he remains unlikely to play in Week 10.
• Rookie RB Kendre Miller missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury suffered in Week 9.

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have run an uptempo offense (eighth-ranked 27.4 seconds per play) with a near league-average Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). That said, their offensive play calling and design has been wildly susceptible to game environment, with the team comfortable taking a more run-balanced approach unless otherwise forced. Quarterback Derek Carr has two games with more than 50 pass attempts this season, both of which came in losses to the Texans and Jaguars. In his seven other starts, he’s averaged a much more natural 30.1 pass attempts per game. Considering the matchup with the Vikings and the state of their opponent’s roster, it’s fair to expect the Saints to approach this one with the same run-balanced stance until otherwise forced, which is also less likely to occur than in other spots this season.

We’ve seen Alvin Kamara’s snap rate and workload dip in four consecutive weeks as Jamaal Williams has returned to health and become more involved. Furthermore, as was discussed last week during chalk Kamara week, his outlier performances through the air have come in games where the Saints were playing from behind throughout the contest. Kamara has seen five or fewer targets in each of the three New Orleans wins since he returned to action in Week 4, seeing 14 targets twice and eight targets once in the three losses during that time. The return to health of Williams has also threatened Kamara’s weekly rushing upside, as he’s logged 17, 17, and nine carries since his backfield mate returned from injury. And then there’s the curious case of “tight end” Taysom Hill, who has seen his involvement in the offense grow over the last month of play, seeing 19 targets and 26 carries in that span. That number includes 20 combined carries over his previous two games. The matchup on the ground is middling on paper against a Vikings defense holding opponents to 3.7 yards per carry on the backs of just 1.10 yards allowed before contact (third best).

The Minnesota defense leads the league (by a wide margin) in blitz rate this season but has changed things behind those blitzes, running zone coverage at a top-10 rate in the league. The Saints have two very clear paths for volume to flow against man coverage, with both Chris Olave and Michael Thomas seeing a target on over 30 percent of their routes run against man coverage this season. Against zone, however, things flatten out for the Saints, with only Olave (23.7 percent) seeing a targets-per-route-run (TPRR) rate higher than 16 percent this season. Furthermore, the return to health of primary contributors has left the Saints playing with elevated rates of 12-personnel and elevated rates of unique packages via Hill, leaving all of Olave, Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson in sub-elite snap-rate roles. In other words, the Saints are plenty fine utilizing a rotation of skill position players via an offense that utilizes heavy rates of sub packages. As such, nobody pops on paper based on the confusing utilization and middling matchup.

How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game pairs two of the league’s worst offensive schemes and most questionable quarterbacks.  
• Neither of these teams has been able to move the ball until the 4^th quarter when both offenses tend to wake up. 
• Everyone is cheap on both sides, including Dionte Johnson ($5,400), George Pickens ($5,100), and Christian Watson ($4,900), who all have price-considered upside. 
• Pickens looked upset last week after DJ scored the go-ahead touchdown and deleted all mention of the Steelers on his social media. 
• Both backfields are timeshares. 
• This most likely outcome is a low-scoring game full of punts 

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The 3-5 Packers come into Week 10 on the outside, looking in at a quickly forming NFC playoff picture. They’re 3.5 games back from the Lions in the NFC North and 1.5 games back (plus the tiebreaker) of the Vikings for the final wildcard spot. This game feels like a must-win for the Packers to keep their season alive. Matt LaFleur’s offense has looked lost most of the year. Whether that’s the coach’s or the quarterbacks’ fault is up for debate, but the results have been poor, with the Packers ranking in the bottom ten in points scored. The Packers play with above-average tempo (12^th ranked in pace of play), but last week, they played 90s football, calling run pass splits of 38/26.  It’s easy to write that off due to game script, and part of it was due to the Rams inability to move the ball, but if you watched the game, the Packers plan was to run from the start. They were never forced out of that approach, leading to the lopsided run/pass splits. The Packers are 16^th in PROE, and 13^th in pass rate, which means they’re typically more balanced. There is a chance their run-heavy approach was just a one-week anomaly, but there is also a chance the coaching staff has lost confidence in Jordan Love. 

The Steelers defense has been middling against the run (16^th in DVOA) and strong against the pass (7^th in DVOA). Although the Steelers season ranking against the run is middle of the road, they got run-stuffing DE Cam Heyward back from the IR last week. Heyward immediately registered six tackles, including one for a loss. The Packers offensive line has been middling (15^th ranked by PFF), but they’ve been a better pass-blocking unit, led by the excellent protection of LG Elgton Jenkins and RT Zach Tom. Tom ranks in the top five right tackles in QB sacks plus hits allowed but will be put to the test by Steelers LOLB T.J. Watt. Steelers’ FS Minkah Fitzpatrick looks to be on the wrong side of questionable, but his loss is somewhat mitigated by the emergence of rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. Porter didn’t see significant snaps until Week 7, but he played 95% of the snaps last week and has put up the 15th best coverage grade in the league. The Steelers defense is good and trending up, even with Minkah probably out one more week. Without an obvious weakness to attack, the Packers are likely to come out with their usual balanced game plan, with a better chance that they test things on the ground first to try and hide Love.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both sides of this spot clearly tilt expected production to the air.
• Rookie quarterback Will Levis will start moving forward for the Titans, even with veteran Ryan Tannehill recovered from his injury.
• WR Treylon Burks has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) with a concussion.
• The Buccaneers have some injury concerns in the secondary as CB Carlton Davis has yet to practice this week with a toe injury, Jamel Dean got in a limited showing Thursday with a concussion, and DB Josh Hayes has yet to practice with a concussion. These are all extremely important pieces to keep an eye on heading into the weekend considering the heavy utilization of Cover-1 and Cover-3 from the Tampa Bay defense this season.

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

First off, the Titans remain one of the more methodically based offenses in the league, preferring to march the field through elevated time of possession and sustained drives while their defense cracks down on the run. That has opened up ever so slightly with Will Levis under center, but we’re still dealing with an offense averaging just 29.1 pass attempts per game (30^th) that plays with slow pace (31^st-ranked 31.0 seconds per play). The return of Vita Vea for the Buccaneers further tilts the path of least resistance to the air for the Titans, although Tennessee has largely been reliant on game environment to dictate their play calling tendencies (and not the matchup). In other words, we should expect the Titans to continue with heavy rates of early down rushing through Derrick Henry for as long as they are both allowed to and it is working.

Speaking of Mr. Henry, the King continues to defy Father Time as he remains one of the harder players to get to the ground in the league. The difference this season when compared to previous years is an offensive line largely not doing him any favors, blocking to just 1.26 yards before contact, 11^th worst in the league. Even so, Henry remains the focal point of the offense with clear paths to 20+ carries in competitive game environments. He has also seen three or more targets in five games this year, which gives him additional outs to returning elite GPP production. That said, the Buccaneers present a clear pass-funnel matchup having allowed 349.3 pass yards per game over their previous four games. Those opponents included Jared Goff, Desmond Ridder, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud, with all but Ridder going over 324 yards through the air (Ridder even managed 250 yards through the air in a win). In fact, the most yards a single ball carrier managed over the previous four games against the Buccaneers was 67 yards by James Cook in Week 8, the only game during that time that Vea missed. The snap rate amongst backs for the Titans remains a near-even split between Henry and Tyjae Spears, although Henry sees a much higher touch-to-snap ratio than the rookie and is the only one with the upside to see 20-25 opportunities on a weekly basis.

The likely absence of Treylon Burks due to a concussion should increase the involvement of Chris Moore on the perimeter, although all of Moore, Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine, and Kyle Phillips are likely to be involved via sub-elite snap rates. Chig Okonkwo and Trevon Wesco combine for sub-elite snap rates, although Okonkwo is the one in a route at a much higher rate. DeAndre Hopkins started the season in a near every-down role before being held below 70 percent in each of the two games since the team’s Week 7 bye week, backing up his three-touchdown Week 8 performance (on six targets) with an 11-target game in Week 9. Hopkins holds an elite 33.3 percent targets per route run rate against man coverage this season and should continue to see a high rate of first-read targets with a rookie quarterback chucking the ball. As was touched on above, the matchup could be further influenced by the status of the two starting perimeter cornerbacks on the Buccaneers, as both Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis find themselves on the team’s injury report this week.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This game features two teams who rank in the bottom three in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE)..
• Falcons head coach Arthur Smith continues to find new ways to underwhelm, and at this point, seems to be stuck in his ways merely because changing would prove others right.
• The Cardinals defense ranks near the bottom of the league against both the run and the pass, opening the door for Atlanta’s offense to look more functional.
• Arizona had one of the worst offensive performances you will ever see in Week 9 against the Browns, but will have a new look this week thanks to the return of quarterback Kyler Murray.
• James Conner also has a chance to return from injured reserve, which would also serve to solidify this offense’s ability to sustain drives.

How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons’ rise to mediocrity continued last week, as they found new ways to lose and mismanage a game. While head coach Arthur Smith would rather lose games than prove those who question his approach right, the Falcons enter Week 10 with one of the more hollow 4-5 records you will ever see. They have one win by more than three points, a 24-10 Week 1 victory over the downtrodden Panthers. Their other three wins are by a combined six points against the Packers, Texans, and Bucs. Atlanta ranks 19th in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage, converting on only half (50%) of its opportunities, despite the Falcons’ heavy investments in offensive skill players in the last three drafts. Through nine games, eighth overall pick and unquestionably talented Bijan Robinson has 13 red-zone opportunities compared to 28 for Tyler Allgeier. Fellow high draft capital studs Drake London and Kyle Pitts have combined for 15 red-zone targets this year. If my math checks out, that means that Smith has given the ball to Allgeier in the red zone as many times as he’s given it to Robinson, London, and Pitts COMBINED. As much as we preach “process”, this is a results business. It would be one thing to have that kind of touch dispersion if your team is racking up points and wins, but to misuse your players in that kind of way while not even cracking .500 against a soft schedule is pretty damning. Smith can give condescending answers and long monologues trying to convince everyone how sharp he is, but the reality is that he’s making things far more difficult than they need to be. In high-leverage situations, find ways to get the ball to your most talented players. End of story/rant.

Atlanta’s run of a ridiculously soft schedule continues this week as it heads to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that has the worst record in the NFL and has lost five of their last six games by double digits. Unfortunately for Smith, the Cardinals are expected to get Murray back this week, which should invigorate their offense and force opponents to be more aggressive offensively. Atlanta should have their choice of how to attack, as Arizona’s defense ranks 30th against the run and 31st against the pass by DVOA metrics. Atlanta’s offense has all the ingredients to be special and can move the ball at a high level, especially against inferior opponents. Robinson and Allgeier are a terrific backfield pairing and run behind PFF’s #3 graded offensive line. Pitts and Jonnu Smith have combined for more receiving yardage than any other tight end room in the NFL. London should return from injury this week and KhaDarel Hodge is emerging as a legitimate threat at wide receiver as well, thanks in large part to chemistry with new starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Atlanta has no problem moving the football, as most of the Falcons’ issues stem from failing to punch the ball in when they get to the red zone. This week, they face an Arizona defense that is ranked 30th in the league in opponent red-zone TD percentage over the last three weeks. Atlanta has a bye after this week, and if the Falcons can’t put up some significant points in this matchup, then some serious changes will likely be considered. The Falcons have been playing with increased pace and throwing at a higher rate over the last month, and we should expect those aggressive tendencies to continue this week as Smith seeks to silence his critics.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Mike Johnson >>

• This game features two of the top 10 offenses in the NFL and has the highest over/under on the Week 10 slate.
• Detroit enters this game off its Week 9 bye, potentially getting healthier and looking to finish the second half of the season strong and win their division for the first time since 1993.
• The Lions offense may be welcoming back running back David Montgomery after a multi-week absence, during which Jahmyr Gibbs broke out and displayed his elite playmaking ability.
• The Chargers are playing on a short week after their dismantling of Zach Wilson and the Jets on Monday night.
• It is rare for the NFL to schedule games in this way, with one team (LAC) playing on short rest after a Monday night game and Detroit having extra rest from its bye week.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit enters this game with the second-best record in the NFC and fresh off its Week 9 bye. They also have their backfield at full strength, as Montgomery is set to return and Gibbs had consecutive big games in his absence. Detroit’s offense leans heavily on its running backs, leading the league in running back opportunity share in 2022 and continuing that trend this year. Detroit’s offense has been elite this season, ranking in the top 6 in the NFL in both running and passing offense DVOA. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has continued to show why he will be a highly sought-after head coaching candidate after the season, as his scheme gets the ball to his best players while keeping defenses on their heels. Detroit ranks 22nd in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) yet has been one of the more explosive and efficient units in the league so far this year. The Lions offensive line has been elite this year, ranking third in PFF pass blocking grade and second in PFF run blocking grade. Quarterback Jared Goff has been very sensitive to pressure throughout his career, and the elite play up front has undoubtedly played a huge role in unlocking what may be the most impressive play of his career so far this season.

As for Detroit’s approach to this game, the Chargers defense has been inconsistent this year despite having many big names in its ranks. Los Angeles has looked solid defensively the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets, but the Lions should feel confident about their ability to move the ball and score points in this matchup. The Chargers scheme is zone-heavy in coverage and does not get a ton of pressure in most matchups. They rank 15th in PFF pass rush grade and 22nd in QB pressure rate this season. As noted earlier, Detroit’s elite offensive line should hold up much better than Chicago and New York were able to. The Chargers’ zone-heavy scheme also gives up a lot of big plays and production, especially to higher-end offenses. Lions star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is especially dominant against zone coverage, ranking eighth in PFF receiving grade against zone. Ironically, standout rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has also been terrific against zone coverage and ranks eighth among starting tight ends in PFF receiving grade. Putting things together, Goff is best when he is kept upright and ARSB is most effective against zone defense – both factors should be at play this week.

A large portion of Detroit’s offense flows through its running backs as well, and the dynamic duo of Montgomery and Gibbs should move the ball well in this matchup. Detroit is unlikely to significantly alter its play-calling splits – which lean slightly more run-heavy than the average NFL offense – in this matchup. However, this is a team that can be highly explosive in both the running game and passing game. They have strong matchups in both areas and should be expected to move the ball very well in this matchup. The majority of Detroit’s offense will flow through its running backs, ARSB, and LaPorta, with most of the passing game focused on intermediate areas of the field and attacking weak spots in zones. Detroit will likely take some calculated downfield shots as well, and we should trust Johnson to do so at the most opportune times.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY mike johnson >>

• The Giants enter this game with one of the lowest implied team totals you will ever see in the modern NFL.
• New York will be without both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor, leaving rookie Tommy DeVito as their likely starting quarterback. DeVito has played the majority of the last two games and has taken almost half as many sacks as he has completed passes.
• The Cowboys are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Eagles where they showed both their elite talent and ability to contend, as well as their continued inability to finish the job.
• It will be hard to find a bigger mismatch than the Cowboys pass rush against the Giants offensive line.
• Dak Prescott has been on fire lately, but it is unclear what kind of offensive game plan the Cowboys will take against such a futile opponent, as well as how quickly the game script could get out of hand.

How NEW york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants are downright bad. After a year of overachieving and everything seeming to break their way, New York has had just about everything go off the rails in 2023. There was a slight glimmer of hope coming into last week as New York finally had Jones and Barkley healthy together and appeared to have most of the hard part of their schedule behind them. The football gods had other plans, however, as Jones suffered a devastating ACL tear in the first half of the game and the Giants got steamrolled by the rejuvenated Raiders. Week 9 marked the second consecutive game where the Giants lost their starting quarterback due to injury and brought in the rookie DeVito in relief. In both appearances, the Giants were putrid on offense and barely able to move the ball. The Giants did get a little bit of “garbage time” production against the Raiders once the outcome was already decided, but there is not a lot of room for optimism here on New York’s side of the ball.

The Giants have announced that DeVito will start in Week 10, which theoretically is a little bit better for his odds of success since he will get all the first-team reps and be more prepared. Unfortunately, the Giants face a ferocious Dallas pass rush that has made a living teeing off on inferior opponents this season. The Cowboys have played three home games this season, all against teams that are currently .500 or worse, and won those games by an average of 26 points. The Giants have achieved the rare feat of ranking dead last in the NFL in both rushing offense DVOA and passing offense DVOA. Their third-string quarterback is now under center, while their offensive line is still not performing well. The Giants rank 27th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) but are likely to be the most run-heavy team in the league this week for as long as they can. The Cowboys run defense has been above average this season and is especially strong against lower-tier opponents. The Giants will almost certainly give the ball to Barkley on the majority of their plays and hope a conservative approach and good defensive game plan can bring the Cowboys down to their level.

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Commanders are still right in the NFC playoff hunt despite an up-and-down season thus far.
• Seattle is coming off a humbling 37-3 loss to the Ravens.
• Sam Howell is on a record-setting pace for sacks taken in a season, although he and the offensive line have improved in that area over the past two weeks.
• This game has a path to becoming a shootout thanks to the Commanders’ poor pass defense and the Seahawks’ elite run defense.
• This is the only game on the Week 10 slate that features two teams in the top 10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders are among the elite offenses in the NFL. Well, at least in terms of offensive approach. Speaking in general, teams tend to build their offensive game plans and approaches around their personnel’s strengths and weaknesses. If you look at the top-12 teams in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), here are 11 of the quarterbacks for those teams::

• Joe Burrow
• Patrick Mahomes
• Josh Allen
• Kirk Cousins
• Trevor Lawrence
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Justin Herbert
• Geno Smith
• Jalen Hurts
• Dak Prescott
• Lamar Jackson

That is basically just a list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Ironically, Sam Howell is the “one that’s not like the others” from this list, with the Commanders ranking 3rd in PROE behind only the Bengals and Chiefs. New offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy came over from the Chiefs and has kept with his system as he pushes the pass rate and tempo for the Commanders. Howell has attempted 40 or more passes in five of the last six games. Washington has had some low moments this year, such as a 34-point home loss to the Bills and a blowout loss to the lowly Bears, but they’ve also had some moments that inspire hope, like their two close losses to the dominant Eagles. For all the ups and downs they’ve had already in 2023, the Commanders are still in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt but will need to pull off a couple of upsets down the stretch against a very difficult remaining schedule that includes the Seahawks, 49ers, Cowboys (x2), and Dolphins.

Entering Week 8, the Seahawks defense ranked 3rd in the NFL in both run defense DVOA and opponents yards per carry. The Browns and their run-based offense had success in Week 8, and the Ravens offense went nuclear last week, which has skewed the data heavily for the “season-long” stats, which now show Seattle as a middling run defense ranking 18th in run defense DVOA and 21st in opponents yards per carry. This is one of those situations where context is vital, and simply looking at the top-layer rankings/statistics would be misleading. “Reading the tea leaves,” we can see that the Seahawks have been elite against the run when playing offenses not built around that part of their offense. Considering the tendencies the Commanders have shown this year and their current playcalling splits, it is reasonable to expect that Seattle will provide a brick wall to the running game for Washington and turn them into a fully one-dimensional attack. Seattle’s scheme relies heavily on zone concepts, limiting big plays and keeping the ball in front of them. We should expect an extremely high volume of passes from Washington this week, while those passes will primarily be forced to the field’s short and intermediate middle areas.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football brings us one of the least anticipated matchups of the year as the Jets travel to take on the Raiders. We’ve got a whopping 36.5 point total with New York favored by 1, so hurray, each team is projected to score roughly 18 points. Nice.

New York

We’ll start with the Jets, where Breece Hall has reached a point in his injury recovery where he’s taken over the backfield, playing at least 60% of the snaps in three straight games and seeing 17, 21, and 20 running back opportunities in that time, with 18 of those being targets. Very nice workload for Breece, we know his upside is explosive, and the Raiders defense is not one to fear – they’re 29th in run defense DVOA. Breece is in an absolutely smash spot here. On a main slate, you could argue, “he’s still on the Jets and they’re only projected for 18 points,” but within the confines of a single-game Showdown, his median projection, floor, and ceiling are the highest on the slate. He’s an awesome play. Behind him are Michael Carter and Dalvin Cook, with Carter out-snapping Dalvin for five straight weeks. That said, in those five weeks, Carter has just five carries to go along with 14 targets so his workload is pretty darn modest. At $1,800, he’s at least viable but would need either some late-game garbage time shenanigans like he got last week or a fluky touchdown in order to really pay off. Dalvin’s path to relevance is even narrower as he’s the primary rushing backup. He’s also $4,000, which means just a fluky short touchdown isn’t likely to do it – he almost certainly needs an injury to Hall in order to get enough field time to have a chance of hitting. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard will lead the way at wide receiver, playing almost all of the snaps. While Zach Wilson is not a good quarterback, he has still bombarded Garrett Wilson with targets, averaging almost exactly 10 per game. On volume alone, it’s hard to argue with the consistency that Garrett brings to the table with 14+ DK points in 6/8 games. On what is likely to be a low-scoring game, there’s a good chance that even 14 DK points would be relevant. Lazard, on the other hand, looks a lot shakier: he’s only averaging about 4.5 targets per game, which coupled with his quarterback’s challenges delivering the ball accurately, has resulted in just about 2.5 catches per game. At $6,600, that isn’t going to cut it. Lazard would either need a spike in volume or efficiency – unlikely given how bad Zach Wilson is and how he is so laser-focused on Garrett – or he needs a touchdown (also unlikely because the Jets probably aren’t going to score many of them). He’s on the field a ton so he’s viable in Showdown but there’s nothing that really points to him beyond “I hope he’s low owned and weird football things happen to go in his favor.” The WR3 role appears to have been taken over by Xavier Gipson as Randall Cobb was a healthy scratch last week with Gipson playing a season-high 58% of the snaps. That only came along with two targets, but at $200, he’s fine as a punt value option. Malik Taylor and perhaps Irvin Charles will round out the wide receiver group and are thin MME punt options. 

At tight end, Tyler Conklin is in the lead with C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert backing him up. Conklin has as many targets on the season as Lazard but has caught significantly more of them and he comes at a $1,400 discount – he’s essentially a better version of Lazard (he’s also seen three targets inside the 10 compared to just one for Lazard, hence, better touchdown equity). Uzomah and Ruckert are both thin punts. Uzomah’s the preferred one here as though they’re both averaging around one target per game, roughly, Uzomah has four red zone targets to Ruckert’s one (and two to zero inside the 10 yard line). If you want a “hope and pray for a touchdown” play, Uzomah’s your best bet on the Jets when compared to Ruckert and whatever other WR types they trout out behind Wilson and Lazard.

Las Vegas

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 wraps up with the Broncos visiting the Bills for a 47.5 total game with the Bills favored by a touchdown. The macro notes here are that after a really tough start, the Broncos have held the Chiefs to 19 and 9 points (along with the Packers to 17, but that isn’t especially hard), while the Bills D has been absolutely rocked by injuries and has looked much shakier of late, including allowing 25 points to the Jags in Week 5, 29 points to the Patriots in Week 7 and 24 to the Bengals in Week 9. If those trends continue (which is of course not a certainty), this game may not be as one-sided as Vegas thinks at first glance. 

Buffalo

We’ll start with the Bills and their run game. We know that James Cook is good. We also know that the Bills are babying him a little bit as he’s averaging just 12 carries per game to go along with three targets. We also know, if you’ve been reading these Showdown writeups all year, that his goal line role is modest: eight carries inside the 10 for Cook against 12 for RB2 Latavius Murray (plus another seven for Josh Allen). Cook has some explosive upside on a per-touch basis, but his volume and lack of goal line usage make him a really tough sell at $10,000. Consider him a pay-up to be contrarian kind of play. Murray, on the other hand, is somewhat interesting at just $1,800, as he’s now priced cheaply enough for a modest amount of work plus a touchdown can easily put him in the optimal lineup. He’d need the touchdown as he’s only been hanging around six or so touches per game since Damien Harris got hurt, but the goal line role is robust enough that he has a shot at getting there without needing an injury in front of him. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Okay, Bills passing game, this feels like the 10th time I’ve written them up this year. As always, Stef Diggs is the alpha, averaging just shy of 11 targets per game. Diggs has hit the 100-yard bonus in 5/9 games and has scored a whopping seven touchdowns on the year. He’s a badass. If you’re nervous about Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain, don’t be – not only has Surtain not been quite as elite this year, but the Bills also move Diggs all around the formation and can scheme him away from Surtain’s coverage if they wish to do so. Behind him, we have Gabe Davis as the other full-time wide receiver (who is likely to see a fair bit of Surtain, I’d imagine). Davis is very boom/bust on (usually) limited volume – even after an uncharacteristic 12 target game in Week 8, he’s still only averaging about 5.5 targets per game. We know he has immense upside on a per-target basis, but the volume is shaky, and after Diggs, this offense spreads the ball around quite a bit. He’s a volatile play but with a ceiling that is just fine for $7,400, just recognize that he’s going to miss a lot more than he’s going to hit. In the absence of tight end Dawson Knox the Bills are running more 11-personnel sets, and as predicted, Khalil Shakir has really seized the WR3 role, playing 65% and 71% of the snaps in the last two games and catching 10 of 10 targets in that time for 149 yards. His price is inching up, but at $4,400, he’s still at a spot where he can put up a tournament-worthy score purely via volume with a touchdown being icing on the cake. He’s a strong option whose price has not yet caught up with his role. Really, Shakir’s role is very similar to Gabe Davis: they’re seeing about the same amount of volume and are right about the same yards per catch, but it is worth noting here that Davis’ aDOT was way down in his 12-target game against Tampa. I’m not sure if that was a long-term change with Shakir filling in more of the deep threat role, or if it was something opponent specific to take advantage of something they saw in the matchup (Davis obviously smashed that week, so whatever they saw worked). This adds some additional volatility to the expected role for Davis. I don’t want to overreact to such a small sample but it is at least possible that the Bills are going to keep having him running more intermediate routes instead of almost entirely deeper stuff, and leaving the deeper routes to Shakir. We’ll see. Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty round out the wide receiver corps and can be ignored except as thin MME punt options. 

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid’s role has zoomed off since the Knox injury, playing 84% and 90% of the snaps in the last two games and turning 18 targets into a combined 15/146/1 line. My first reaction to seeing Kincaid at $8,400 was that he’s just way too expensive, he isn’t that tier of tight end yet, but man, the volume is legit. Maybe he is in that tier of tight end? I have a hard time buying a guy whose price went $2,600 → $5,000 → $6,800 —> $8,400 in four weeks, but if he keeps seeing 7+ targets a game in this new role, the price is reasonable. 

Denver