Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Think About Correlation

As I noted in the primer: while each individual prop bet takes place in a vacuum, the game itself doesn’t. Events in football are correlated, both positively and negatively, and you can take advantage of this in your betting. You can use it to diversify your bets while still betting on the same overall thesis you’ve developed for a game; you can use it to get more money in play on game scripts that you’re highly confident in; and you can use it to hedge in case you’re wrong. 

If an offense is going to . . .

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