Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

Adjust For Game Flow

The next step in the analysis, and the most subjective one, is taking everything I’ve already done and then adjusting it for the matchup. I can anticipate that an underdog team is going to run 62 plays and run the ball 48% of the time, and thus they’re expected to run about 30 rushing plays; but if they’re a 10-point underdog and are down multiple scores early on, they probably aren’t going to actually rush the ball 30 times.

At this point is when I start looking at things through multiple lenses. I do one . . .

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