The next step in the analysis, and the most subjective one, is taking everything I’ve already done and then adjusting it for the matchup. I can anticipate that an underdog team is going to run 62 plays and run the ball 48% of the time, and thus they’re expected to run about 30 rushing plays; but if they’re a 10-point underdog and are down multiple scores early on, they probably aren’t going to actually rush the ball 30 times.
At this point is when I start looking at things through multiple lenses. I do one . . .
