Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Adjust For Defensive Matchup

While Vegas odds take offensive and defensive matchups into account at a high level, they don’t take into account individual matchups very well, and thus they don’t tend to be well-reflected in prop bets. My starting point here is looking at DVOA, which adjusts defensive rankings based on the quality of a team’s offensive opponents (and can be found at the top of each NFL Edge game). This will give you a good idea of how, at least in a neutral game situation, an offense is likely to attack a defense. The simple of way of . . .

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