Kickoff Sunday, Nov 27th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
16.5) at

Dolphins (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Texans are relatively healthy heading into Week 12 but they are set to start Kyle Allen at quarterback over the struggling Davis Mills.
  • Raheem Mostert started the practice week with consecutive DNPs with a knee injury, which is particularly notable considering the Dolphins are coming off their bye week.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has been between 30 to 36 pass attempts in five of his six complete games this season. If the Dolphins are running away with this one, it is likeliest we see an uptick in their overall rush volume here.
  • No Texans pass-catcher typically sees more than 80% of the offensive snaps.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The 1-8-1 Texans have lost five in a row and decided to bench incumbent starting quarterback Davis Mills in favor of Kyle Allen, which makes sense considering Mills has as many interceptions as he does touchdown passes this season (11). Allen last saw meaningful action in 2021 as a member of the Carolina Panthers, when, you guessed it, he had almost as many interceptions as touchdown passes through a sample size of 489 pass attempts (17 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions). The Texans rank 20th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season on a 61.55% overall pass rate (10th in the league) but average just 32.9 pass attempts per game and just 15.9 points per game (30th in the league). They would much prefer to run a slow offense (23rd-ranked first half pace of play) with elevated rush rates but rank 31st in the league in net drive success rate and 30th in the league in net points per drive, forcing an increase to overall pass volume along the way. It’s difficult to say if we should expect much of a change in the offense with the swap to Allen at quarterback, but his underlying metrics in his last season of bulk work indicate this offense is not in better hands with the switch. His 6.8 yards per attempt in 2019 ranked 25th in the league, his accuracy rating ranked 30th, his true completion percentage was 26th, and his pressured completion percentage ranked 33rd. Yea, it’s fair to expect the Texans to struggle against an aggressive Miami defense (29.6% blitz rate ranks seventh in the league).

Rookie running back Dameon Pierce took over as the lead back in this backfield way back in Week 2 and has been at or above a 72% snap rate in five of Houston’s last six games, averaging a robust 22.5 running back opportunities per game over that six-game stretch (including games of 31, 27, and 24 opportunities). That said, his poor 4.6 yards per touch value ranks 36th in the league and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 5 against the Jaguars. The pure rushing matchup yields a paltry 4.03 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Miami defense holding opposing backfields to just 3.72 yards per carry, second best in the league. Expect fullback Troy Hairston and change-of-pace back Rex Burkhead to each see about 20% of the offensive snaps behind Pierce.

The Texans have run from 12-personnel at an elevated 35% clip this season, typically electing to utilize a three-man rotation at tight end with rookie Teagan Quitoriano and veterans O.J. Howard and Jordan Akins. When you then include the roughly 20% of snap run from 21-personnel through the utilization of fullback Troy Hairston, we quickly realize how little upside is present from this pass offense on a week-to-week basis. Alpha wide receiver Brandin Cooks has played over 81% of the offensive snaps only once in his last six healthy games, Nico Collins has seen more than 81% of the offensive snaps only once all season, and the WR3 role is typically split between Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett. While we can figure the Texans for a few additional snaps against the efficient and fast-paced Miami offense, that doesn’t really buy us much through the wildly unconcentrated and low volume Texans offense, particularly considering the change to a quarterback who has struggled with deep passing throughout his career.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

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