slate Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Overall, the state of the wide receiver position is likely to be a primary decision node considering the top three options at the position all carry significantly wider ranges of outcomes than the field is likely to give credit for.
- Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Rousseau, and Tre’Davious White all appear unlikely to play for the Bills on a short week.
- RG Evan Brown, LG Jonah Jackson, and C Frank Ragnow all were listed as DNP on the estimated practice report for the Lions on Monday, who could also be without CB Jeff Okudah, DE Josh Paschal, and WR Josh Reynolds.
- The Bills have averaged 28.1 points per game this season (second in the league), and the Lions have ceded 28.2 points per game this season (worst in the league) – yea, we probably have to account for the Bills in some form across rosters in play on Thanksgiving.
- The Lions are one of the most adaptive offenses in the league, preferring to ease into the start of games with increased rush rates but willing to open their offense up if forced to.
- Daniel Bellinger and Adoree Jackson will not play for the Giants, who also have six offensive linemen listed on the injury report ahead of their game against the Cowboys.
- The Giants also have issues in their secondary, where they utilized a three-player rotation at cornerback in the absence of Adoree Jackson after Fabian Moreau left with an oblique injury in Week 11.
- Giants pass-catchers are a case of roulette behind Darius Slayton and Lawrence Cager.
- The Cowboys have been hit by the illness bug this week, with multiple defensive players on the injury report with an illness.
- The biggest injury news for the Vikings is offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who is unlikely to play this week as he works his way through the league’s concussion protocol. The pressure rate split allowed with and without Darrisaw in the lineup this season for the Vikings is stark, to say the least, which is not a good sign for the Vikings as they take on the aggressive front of the Patriots, particularly considering quarterback Kirk Cousins’ struggles when pressured this season.
- The expected pressure rate from New England’s defense should be the driving force behind the overall game environment for the last game of the slate.
- Volume is likely to be difficult to fully nail down amongst the secondary options on this slate, but one or two secondary pieces from the six teams in play are likely to be required to ship GPPs on Thanksgiving – something to keep in mind when putting together rosters.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
New England’s formula for approaching games largely hasn’t changed all season, with an emphasis on disrupting opponent drives through an aggressive and blitz-heavy unit aimed at stopping drives, keeping teams out of the end zone, and generating turnovers. With the ball, the Patriots play at a bottom-five pace of play across the board, with a bottom-half pass rate over expectation (PROE) (21st) and overall pass rate (24th). The biggest blemish to that game plan has been a quarterback duo that has struggled mightily when under pressure this season, but that is less of a concern against a Vikings defense that generates pressure at a below-average rate this year. Expect a primary emphasis on controlling the game flow and environment, where the Patriots like to find themselves controlling the time of possession and dictating the game environment on their terms.
That game plan has primarily filtered production to the backfield tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. Stevenson has operated as the unquestioned lead back for each of the previous six games, while Harris has battled through injuries, seeing 73% or more of the offensive snaps in all but one of those games and over 63% in every one. That said, last week was the first week during that span that Harris found himself off the injury report entirely, and it is fair to expect an increase to his modest 24% snap rate from a week ago in his second game back from injury. I tentatively expect a snap rate dispersal closer mimicking the early-season split, which had Stevenson leading the way in a 60/40 split. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Vikings defense ceding 24.6 DK points per game to opposing backfields.
Quarterback Mac Jones has landed between 27 pass attempts and 35 pass attempts in all six of his complete games this season, which should be considered a valid representation of his expected pass volume for the remainder of the season. He has only four touchdown passes to seven interceptions on the season, again highlighting the run-heavy nature of the offense as a whole. Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry remain the only two near every-down pass-catchers, with all of Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, and Jonnu Smith likely serving in rotational and situational roles. That makes predicting volume and ranges of outcomes fairly difficult behind the top two pass-catchers. When combined with the likeliest game flow (covered below), we’re likely to see volume remain an issue for the secondary options on this offense.