Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- Houston’s offense has scored over 20 points only once all season.
- The Cowboys offense has been averaging 37 points per game since Dak Prescott returned from injury.
- Both teams prefer to build their offensive attack on the ground and have solid on-paper matchups in that regard.
- This game could get out of hand very quickly, given the efficiency of the Dallas offense and the strength of their pass rush.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Houston is reportedly going back to Davis Mills as their quarterback after a failed two-week experiment with journeyman Kyle Allen under center. It will likely make little difference on the road against a defense that leads the league in combined sacks plus turnovers. The Texans offense has scored more than 20 points exactly once this year, and a matchup on the road against an elite defense doesn’t seem like a spot where they are likely to have the second such occurrence.
In theory, the Texans would prefer to keep this game low-scoring and attack the Cowboys on the ground. Dameon Pierce is their offensive centerpiece when games are close and even managed 18 carries in last week’s big loss to the Browns. The Texans are also middle of the pack in tempo and pace this year and are sure to bleed the clock as much as possible to keep the Cowboys high powered offense off the field as much as they can. The Cowboys have the #1 DVOA pass defense by Football Outsiders while ranking 23rd in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowed, another data point that points us towards a healthy dose of run plays for the Texans. Now that Davis Mills is back under center, the Texans passing game should become slightly more efficient than it was with Allen, but facing a Cowboys pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks behind an offensive line that ranks bottom-10 in adjusted sack rate is a recipe for disaster. We should expect a very conservative, quick-hitting approach from the Texans on the rare occasion that they drop back to pass early in this game. However, with the Cowboys offense likely to thrive, the Texans may have no choice but to open things up much earlier than they would like.
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