Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Carolina enters this game off their bye week and is on a bit of a roll, winning two of their last three games.
- Seattle has backfield issues that could push them to lean on their highly efficient passing game.
- Neither defense ranks in the top half of the league against either the run or the pass.
- The Panthers handed the ball to running backs on 41-of-65 plays in their last game.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
Despite a 4-8 record and firing their coach early in the season, the Panthers are sneakily still in the playoff hunt as they come out of their Week 13 bye. The Panthers offense has quietly come to life recently, as they have scored 21+ points in five of their last six games. As a matter of fact, their scoring during that stretch would rank in the top half of the NFL if compared to the league’s season long stats. Considering the negative public perception around this unit, being aware of these recent trends is key in examining them for this week and beyond. If the Panthers can win this game and the Bucs lose their tough road game in San Francisco, Carolina will be within a game of the division lead with all four of their games remaining against teams with losing records. Such is life in the NFC South in 2022.
Sam Darnold returned as the starting quarterback for the Panthers in Week 12 and led the Panthers to a victory. In that game, the Panthers leaned heavily on their running backs, as they had a 63% run rate and controlled the game. For comparison’s sake, the Falcons lead the NFL on the season with a 52.4% run rate. This week the Panthers get a Seahawks defense that has been very forgiving recently, giving up 300+ yards from scrimmage to Josh Jacobs in Week 12 and breathing life into Cam Akers for his best game of the year in Week 13. On the season, the Seahawks rank 28th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed and we should expect the Panthers to lean heavily on their strength and the weakness of the Seahawks in this tough road environment. When Darnold does take to the air, expect D.J. Moore to be his preferred target. Moore has struggled with Carolina’s QB play over the past two seasons, but his best play, by far, has been with Darnold under center. The pair connected for 103 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, as Moore received a 32% target share.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
MIKE JOHNSON >>
My imagination is running wild with the possibilities for this game. It doesn’t feel real that in the year 2022 I would make that statement about a game featuring Geno Smith and Sam Darnold as the starting quarterbacks, but here we are.
Given the state of this slate with only 10 games, only one of which has a total over 47 points, finding a spot that can surprise for a high scoring game is extremely valuable and has a high chance of vaulting you to the top of leaderboards if it does hit. Along with high scoring environments, we also want to target highly concentrated offenses. When we can find situations where those things combine, and do so at relatively affordable price tags, the sky is the limit.
On the Seattle side, the backfield situation makes all of the passing game pieces viable and interesting to me:
- Geno Smith has scored 20+ Draftkings points in four consecutive games and seems likely to keep the streak alive this week.
- DK Metcalf is top-10 in the NFL in targets and with his expanded route tree and role is a relatively consistent producer. Assuming the Seahawks have a lot of passing volume this week, Metcalf seems highly likely to see somewhere between 9-12 targets this week.
- Tyler Lockett hasn’t seen the same volume as Metcalf this season, but has been highly efficient. He is also coming off a season high 12 targets in a similar situation last week against the Rams.
- Noah Fant only has two touchdowns this season and only has one game of more than 50 receiving yards, but at $3,100 and with an athletic skill set he is an intriguing play from this game. Fant has 3+ catches in each of the last four games while producing over 4x his Week 14 salary twice during that stretch.
- Travis Homer has 11 receptions on 11 targets this season, while carrying the ball only nine times. Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker have carried the load for the Seahawks most of the year, so Homer is likely to see a huge increase in workload this week. Assuming the Seahawks approach this game how we expect, Homer could be in line for six to eight targets and somewhere in the 10-14 carry range.
On the Carolina side, there are a couple of clear spots I am interested in and a couple of cheap options you could consider – especially on the Afternoon Only slate.
- D’Onta Foreman has three games of 19.5 Draftkings points or more in his last six games. Given what Akers and Jacobs have done to the Seahawks in recent weeks, Foreman’s ability to break tackles and beat down a defense gives him a very high price considered ceiling.
- If Foreman, who sat out Wednesday’s practice, were to miss or be limited in this game, Chuba Hubbard would be in position for a very large workload at a cheap price tag. Hubbard also has a solid pass game role and would become extremely viable in all forms of DFS contests.
- DJ Moore’s talent and role at his price tag makes him very appealing. He is in a great matchup and if the Panthers keep this game close they will need him to produce and if they fall behind he is likely to see some heavy volume.
Where this game really gets interesting for me is in its stacking potential. Just last week, Geno + Metcalf + Lockett + Fant combined for over 100 DK points in a game where the Seahawks scored only 27 points. That group’s combined salary this week is $22.9k, meaning they would need to score 91.6 points to 4x their cost. Considering the expected approach of Seattle’s offense, that threshold seems relatively attainable. I think you could add Homer to the mix as well, given his skillset, and any mix of Geno plus two or three of those skill players is an extremely viable way to play this game. Seattle has been involved in several shootouts this season and they don’t have the personnel to just ice this one away on the ground, there are a lot of paths to a ceiling for the group here.
Combining that with the Panthers side, we already have one game this year where we saw them get involved in a shootout and production condense on Foreman and Moore in Week 8 against Atlanta. We have also seen that duo combine for totals of 37.6, 65.3, and 39.1 in three of the last six games. Considering they have a combined price tag of just $10.9k on Draftkings, a 50% chance of a 3.5x return seems really nice.