Jaguars (

19.25) at
Titans (

22.25)

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is a poor game environment.
• The Titans offensive line has performed below expectations.
• The Titans are likely to run even though the Jaguars are weaker against the pass.
• Travis Etienne is still underpriced but this is a brutal matchup.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The 4-8 Jaguars come into Week 14 on the heels of a 40-14 drubbing at the hands of the scarier-than-people-think (when healthy) Lions. As bad as the Jags were last week, they’ve played close games all year, and have an unlucky looking point differential (-14) for their record.  For comparison, the other 4-8 teams (Colts // Panthers // Cardinals) have negative 89 // 36 // 57 point differentials respectively. It’s easy to think of the Jags as a bad team but Doug Pederson has made them better and they’re performing close to the middle of the road in most metrics, with one glaring weakness (pass defense).

The Jaguars play at a moderate pace (13^th overall) but that number is misleading since they want to play faster (9^th situation neutral) if the game is close. The Jags rank in the top 10 in pace in every metric except if they have a lead (31^st in pace) when they take their foot way off the gas. The discrepancy in the Jags pace makes them a highly game flow dependent team. The Jags will play like a top-10 pace team if the game is close or they’re losing, but they turn into the Titans when they’re winning.

The Titans have been monsters against the run (1^st in DVOA) and susceptible through the air (22^nd DVOA) profiling as one of the league’s clearest pass funnels. As an OWS reader, this analysis should come as old hat, the Titans face the highest pass rate above expectation in the league. The relative weakness of the Titans defense is obvious to anyone paying attention, and their opponents can figure out it makes sense to avoid the Titans ferocious run D.  Expect more of the same from Pederson, with a focus on playing quickly and passing, unless the Jags take a two-score lead.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::