Kickoff Sunday, Dec 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
19.25) at

Titans (

Over/Under 41.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is a poor game environment.
  • The Titans offensive line has performed below expectations.
  • The Titans are likely to run even though the Jaguars are weaker against the pass.
  • Travis Etienne is still underpriced but this is a brutal matchup.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The 4-8 Jaguars come into Week 14 on the heels of a 40-14 drubbing at the hands of the scarier-than-people-think (when healthy) Lions. As bad as the Jags were last week, they’ve played close games all year, and have an unlucky looking point differential (-14) for their record.  For comparison, the other 4-8 teams (Colts // Panthers // Cardinals) have negative 89 // 36 // 57 point differentials respectively. It’s easy to think of the Jags as a bad team but Doug Pederson has made them better and they’re performing close to the middle of the road in most metrics, with one glaring weakness (pass defense).

The Jaguars play at a moderate pace (13th overall) but that number is misleading since they want to play faster (9th situation neutral) if the game is close. The Jags rank in the top 10 in pace in every metric except if they have a lead (31st in pace) when they take their foot way off the gas. The discrepancy in the Jags pace makes them a highly game flow dependent team. The Jags will play like a top-10 pace team if the game is close or they’re losing, but they turn into the Titans when they’re winning.

The Titans have been monsters against the run (1st in DVOA) and susceptible through the air (22nd DVOA) profiling as one of the league’s clearest pass funnels. As an OWS reader, this analysis should come as old hat, the Titans face the highest pass rate above expectation in the league. The relative weakness of the Titans defense is obvious to anyone paying attention, and their opponents can figure out it makes sense to avoid the Titans ferocious run D.  Expect more of the same from Pederson, with a focus on playing quickly and passing, unless the Jags take a two-score lead.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>


(No CC Required)