Kickoff Sunday, Nov 26th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
21.75) at

Falcons (

Over/Under 42.0


Key Matchups
Saints Run D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
24th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
16th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
10th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
22nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is a battle between two teams with a combined losing record but it carries a lot of real life importance since the winner will be in the driver’s seat for the NFC South crown.
  • The Falcons have the lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league by a wide margin.
  • Bijan Robinson still hasn’t seen 25 opportunities in a game yet this season.
  • Drake London continues to be underpriced for his role as WR1 and his prospects are heightened by Marishon Lattimore’s expected absence.
  • Rashid Shaheed is mispriced for his upside as the number two target on the Saints offense.
  • Saints receiver A.T. Perry played 84% of the snaps in Week 10 and could maintain a large snap share coming out of the bye.
  • Derrick Carr practiced fully on Wednesday, setting him up to play this week.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The 5-5 Saints come into Week 12 off a bye and must be loving life in the NFC South. In any other division, they’d be multiple games out of first place. They have a worse record than all three of the current NFC wild card teams but if the season ended today, they would finish as a clear division winner, and get a first-round home playoff game. While every other division has at least one legitimate contender, the Saints are the best the NFC South can muster. That makes what would normally be an unimportant affair between two teams with a combined losing record instead have the feel of a playoff game. Pete Carmichael Jr. has been one of the least creative offensive coordinators in the league. The Saints use motion at one of the lowest rates and run a “beat the man across from you” offense. Carmichael’s scheme may be bland but at least they move quickly (4th in pace). A fast bland scheme (Patriots and Steelers are also examples) is usually an indication of a bad coach who thinks you’re supposed to play fast to be sharp, instead of playing fast to put pressure on the defense or keep them in mismatched formations. 

Built in the image of the Titans, the Falcons have become a pass funnel on defense. They’ve broken down a little recently against the run (15th in DVOA) after spending most of the season as a top ten unit in that metric. They’ve never been good against the pass (30th in DVOA), getting flamed all year through the air. The Saints offensive line has been average (17th ranked by PFF) but should be able to hold up against the Falcons (24th in sack rate) lackluster pass rush. The Saints play balanced (13th in PROE) and stay balanced (14th in pass rate) as long as their games are competitive. The Saints have thrown over 50 times twice this year, both in losses, which shows that Carmichael is willing to chase points, but against the Titans, the Saints won a close game and only threw 33 times. The Saints aren’t the type of team to adjust and come out pass heavy based on game plan and will likely stay balanced as long as things are close on the scoreboard. There is also uncertainty around the health of Derek Carr was still in concussion protocol early in the week, but coming off a bye, it seems more likely than not that he will play. Still, his absence from practice early in the week is one more factor that lessens the chances of a pass heavy approach. Expect the Saints to try a balanced attack, and to stick with that plan if the game is close.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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