Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean (ankle/foot) has been ruled out while CB Carlton Davis (hip) is listed as questionable following limited/limited/full practices.
- Buccaneers LB Lavonte David (groin) is out.
- Colts C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and CB JuJu Brents (quad) are out.
- The Colts play the highest rate of zone coverage and the highest rate of Cover-3 in the league while the Buccaneers run their defense primarily from Cover-1 and Cover-3.
- Both of those primary coverages naturally filter volume to first-read targets and top pass-catchers, something to keep in mind from a game environment that has the makings of a solid spot.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers continue to build their team and game plan from their defense forward. Speaking of that defense, Tampa Bay has blitzed at the third highest rate in the league but generated pressure at a below average 21.4 percent clip. Behind that elevated blitz rate, the Buccaneers are mixing man coverage through Cover-1 alignments with zone coverage through Cover-3 alignments, playing each alignment at top-five rates. All of that comes together to provide an environment ripe for first-read targets, which the Buccaneers have allowed at an elevated rate this season. That has also left them as one of the most pass-funnel defenses in the league through 11 weeks. From a macro perspective on offense, the Buccaneers rank near the middle of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE), but ninth in overall pass rate (59.94 percent) and 11th in pass attempts per game (35.1), giving a clear indication of the type of games they have participated in this season.
Lead back Rachaad White has seen a top-12 running back workload across the board, ranking sixth in snap rate (76.7 percent), ninth in opportunity share (72.5 percent), 12th in carries (141, 14.1 per game), fifth in targets (44, 4.4 per game), and ninth in red zone opportunities (29 total with four goal line carries). He also has a robust 93.2 percent catch rate (first) and has committed just one drop all season. That’s the good. The bad is that White holds a putrid 3.3 yards per carry mark behind an offensive line blocking to the second fewest yards before contact this season. Even so, the elite workload and solid pass game usage keep White in the conversation each week. The poor efficiency means he typically has to score multiple times to return a viable GPP score, which he has done just once all season (his only GPP-viable score in Week 9 behind two scores on the ground and a 4/46 receiving line, returning 27.9 DK points). Chase Edmonds should continue to serve as the primary change of pace back after Ke’Shawn Vaughn was made inactive each of the previous two games and rookie Sean Tucker has played just one offensive snap since Week 3. The matchup on the ground is middling at best against a Colts defense ceding 4.1 yards per carry behind 1.33 yards allowed before contact. In what should be viewed as variance, the Colts have allowed 12 total touchdowns to opposing backfields this season, tied for the fifth most in the league.
The Buccaneers run heavy rates of 11-personnel on offense but have continued to rotate five primary wide receivers through various packages, holding Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Trey Palmer, the team’s three top wide receivers, to sub-elite snap rates and route participation rates this season. Evans leads the way in targets per route run (TPRR) (26.7 percent), target share (24.3 percent), targets (82), and air yards (1178, fourth in the league) but surprisingly slots in behind Godwin in red zone target share (26.1 percent to 23.9 percent). Either way, the combined 157 targets between Evans and Godwin make up 44.9 percent of the team’s total targets this season. Evans has seen a target on 28.0 percent of his routes against Cover-3 this year while Godwin holds a 25.3 percent TPRR against Cover-3 in 2023, a coverage the Colts find themselves in on almost 60 percent of their defensive snaps. It’s actually Rachaad White who ranks third on the team in TPRR against Cover-3 this season at 20.3 percent. Finally, the fact that this team runs so much Cover-3, a defensive alignment that required a lot of communication, and will be missing a starting cornerback introduces some level of potential upside through YAC possibilities.
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