XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The NFL gods bring us a Friday game for an extra Showdown this week! Bit of a bummer it’s with the Jets, I’m a little tired of seeing them on island Showdowns, but I’ll take it for an extra day of football. This game has a 41 point total with Miami favored by 9.5, meaning the Jets team total is a pathetic 15.75 points. Given that the Jets have come in under that lofty total for four straight games and in 6/10 games overall on the season, it doesn’t seem unreasonable, but of course, there are other ways the game could play out.
On the Jets side, they get a solid matchup on the ground against a Dolphins D ranked 22nd in run defense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4th in yards per carry on the season. They just don’t often play in close enough games to really rack up rushing volume, and their pass game deficiencies mean even if their run game is doing well it’s still hard to sustain drives. Even so, this is a very strong spot for Breece Hall, who is comically priced all the way down at just $7,600. Hall has played 60%+ of the snaps for five straight weeks and clearly seems to be over any early-season workload limitations. His role has led to only a modest 12.6 carries per game over that period, but he’s also heavily involved in the passing game with 5.4 targets per game. 18 running back opportunities per game with strong passing game involvement at $7,600 makes Hall an extremely strong play. RB2 Dalvin Cook has seen a grand total of 13 carries and five targets in those same five games, rendering him essentially unplayable at $4k, while Israel Abanikanda also popped up to replace Michael Carter last week, playing 18% of the snaps and seeing a carry and two targets. I have no real interest in Cook, but Abanikanda is only $1,800 and it’s at least somewhat possible his role could grow at Cook’s expense, so I’ll have him in my player pool for large-field tourneys.
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In the passing game, Tim Boyle is expected to start instead of Zach Wilson. Trevor Siemian is also expected to be active. At $6,000, Boyle projects as a solid play, but just be wary here as the floor is low for a quarterback (Boyle played a third of the game last week and scored 0.42 DK points). If you think the Jets are at all competitive, Boyle is way too cheap and he doesn’t need to do much to get into an optimal lineup, but he’s also likely to be extremely chalky given his price, and so he represents a major decision point on the slate. If you choose to play him, just make sure you’re finding differentiation somewhere else. It’s not entirely crazy to play Siemian, either, thinking that if Boyle struggles for a quarter or two the Jets could make an in-game change. It is not the likeliest outcome, to be clear, but if I were running 150 rosters for this one I’d probably have at least a couple with Siemian, who has proven to be a reasonably capable backup in his career and could feasibly do enough in a half of play to land in winning rosters. The Jets will trot out Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Xavier Gipson at wide receiver, with Jason Brownlee the latest guy to get some WR4 snaps. Wilson is obviously extremely talented, and terrible quarterback play has not prevented him from averaging a reasonable 13.6 DK points per game on 10.3 targets. He’s a reasonable option who can find enough ceiling to be in a winning lineup without finding the end zone. Lazard has only reached double-digit DK points once this season and is averaging four targets per game with a high of six – there’s nothing to really point us his way except “football is funny and maybe he catches a touchdown.” I’m mostly off of him. Gipson at $800 has an ascending role with snap counts of 58%, 68%, and 79% in his last three games – it’s only come along with seven total targets in that game, but at $800, he’s a solid value option and we could continue to see his passing game involvement grow (he also returns kicks, and so could luck into a return TD). Brownlee would be a total punt option.
Tight end is manned by a combination of Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, and Jeremy Ruckert, with Ruckert’s role growing significantly last week while Uzomah played a season-low 11% of the snaps. Uzomah is an extremely thin punt. Conklin at $3,200 is a very reasonable value option who has out-targeted and out-scored Lazard at a cheaper price despite not having found the end zone yet, while Ruckert is another guy who looks like his role is growing with Uzomah trailing off and a season-high four targets last week. Lots of cheap Jets on this Showdown – basically the entire team is too cheap for their roles and volume, except Lazard.