XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Chiefs visiting the Packers for a 42.5 total game with Kansas City favored by 6. Looking back over the last few seasons, in the past, I would have been surprised to see a Chiefs game with this low of a total, but their defense has been absolutely lights out. Despite failing as DFS chalk last week, they still allowed just 17 points, keeping them in 3rd place in the NFL defensive rankings at just 16.5 points allowed per game. Green Bay’s defense has also been above average, so Vegas is saying this one is likely to be a somewhat boring affair.
INJURY UPDATE: Jerick McKinnon ruled out
Well, so much for being expected to play. This news really solidifies Pacheco’s role as the Chiefs gave him 78% of the snaps last week without McKinnon, his highest of the season by a wide margin. McKinnon being out raises Pacheco from “he’s fine” to “he’s a really solid play,” and it brings Clyde Edwards-Helaire in as an RB2 option.
Green Bay
The Packers backfield looks likely to miss Aaron Jones again as Jones has yet to practice this week as of Friday, so he seems highly unlikely to play and that’s going to be my assumption in this writeup. That leaves the backfield in the mediocre hands of AJ Dillon who, despite playing lead back sans Jones in four full weeks, as well as some partial weeks when Jones was in a small “returning from injury” role, has a season-high of 13.6 Draftkings points. There is no way to make this look favorable: Dillon has been one of the worst running backs in the NFL this season, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry with only a single touchdown. He’s gotten plenty of touches close to the goal line, so even with his below average efficiency we can also acknowledge that he’s gotten unlucky with touchdowns, but even so, yikes. In Dillon’s favor, of course, is the workload. Despite being terrible, the Packers continue to give him the ball, including a reasonable amount of passing game work (such as seven targets in the last two games when having the lead role). At running back, we generally care more about volume and matchup than we do about talent, and Dillon’s price reflects his lack of effectiveness. It’s an ugly click given how bad he’s been, but on paper, Dillon projects as a solid option and I’m going to try to swallow my bias and treat him as one. Backup Patrick Taylor played a very healthy 48% of the snaps last week, but only saw four opportunities. The good news is, that means his price didn’t jump up and he’s still $2,000. Snap share is a major predictor of running back production, and while it didn’t play out last week, if Taylor sees a similar 40-50% snap range this week, I’m willing to bet he gets more than four opportunities. He’s a reasonable value option.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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The Packers passing game has some injury questions with Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Josiah Deguara all questionable. Given that they all got in at least some practice this week, I’m expecting them all to play, but I’m most confident that Reed will play as this is the same injury he played through last week on the way to a strong performance on Thanksgiving. That would leave the Packers with Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs as their primary wide receiver group, with Wicks in the WR4 role. This is an awful matchup against a Chiefs secondary that has shut down opposing passing attacks all season, but in a Showdown, we have to play someone and it’s not like it’s impossible for these guys to get there. Watson has been a disaster all year until he finally had a good game last week with a 5/94/1 performance, Doubs doesn’t do much besides score touchdowns but he has a whopping seven of those, while Reed started the year as a part-time player and has seen his role grow recently. At very similar prices, Reed is my favorite option here – he’s a very talented rookie who has already delivered some of the best performances of any Green Bay WR this season despite playing limited snaps for much of the year, and the role is growing. Watson would be next, then Doubs, who I feel offers little beyond TD upside. I’d be cautious playing too many Packers pass catchers together given the matchup and think I would limit myself to two of these guys on a given roster. Wicks is fine to mix in anywhere at just $800.
At tight end, we saw Tucker Kraft play 96% of the snaps last week with Luke Musgrave and Deguara both out, ending with a 2/15/1 line on two targets. The snaps are encouraging, but only seeing two targets on 32 Jordan Love pass attempts is less so. At $4,200, his role is big enough that I’m willing to take shots on him, but overall I prefer the kickers he’s priced near. His role would likely also shrink somewhat if Deguara makes his return – he’d still play a lot, but maybe 70-80% of the snaps instead of 96% again. Deguara would be a punt option if he’s in, while if he’s out, TE2 Ben Sims would be the punt play.
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