Afternoon-only 7.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider:

• Finding An Edge
  • The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry. Most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

• Ownership Strategy:
  • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates”, just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
  • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are less alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
  • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
  • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 7 Overview

This week, the afternoon slate consists of four games, with the massive total of the WAS/DAL game looming large. That game will be the primary focus for many people for the main slate, which means it will also be a primary focus for this smaller slate, and ownership of individual players is likely to rise somewhat meaningfully. The IND/LAC game will also be extremely popular, which leaves a situation where most lineups will be built heavily around those two games, with a couple of pieces from the other two games mixed in around it. The Packers and Broncos are somewhat big favorites and both have paths to putting up 4 four touchdowns, which could alter the slate significantly if it happens in the right way. It seems like building lineups around the Broncos or having game stacks of GB/ARI would be a great way to approach things from a strategy lens and “creating a clear path to the top.” 

QB Strategy::