Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Josh Reynolds remained out of Wednesday’s practice after missing last week’s game, typically not a good sign for his availability for the coming weekend.
- The Bears have averaged 31.33 points per game over their previous three contests, while the Lions cede the most points per game this season.
- Jared Goff has been one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league over the previous three seasons and the Bears blitz at a league-low 14.0% clip this season (and just lost Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn).
- Everything for a massive shootout is present here, albeit with an extremely wide range of potential outcomes.
How detroit Will Try To Win ::
Woof, man, talk about polar results from this Lions team this season. They started the season first in scoring over the first four weeks before sputtering to just 12 points per game over their next four contests, including weeks of zero points, six points, 15 points, and one nice game of 27 points against the Dolphins. The dip in scoring coincides with injuries and players being dealt away, as D’Andre Swift missed multiple games and has returned to only a very limited role, TJ Hockenson was dealt away to the Vikings, WR2 Josh Reynolds has been struggling through injury since Week 5 (playing on an injured ankle through two games before missing Week 9 and missing practice on Wednesday to start preparation for Week 10), and D.J. Chark has been on IR since Week 7 after missing two consecutive games leading up to their Week 6 bye. Not the easiest wave of events to overcome, to be honest. That said, this is a team that likes to start with a moderate pace with heightened rush rates before adapting to the game environment as the game progresses. That has led to multiple instances of an increased pace of play and aerial aggression in the second half as the team has routinely found themselves in negative game scripts this season. Due to personnel constraints and negative game scripts, the offense has operated primarily from 11-personnel since its Week 6 bye, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond likeliest to see near every-down roles, Tom Kennedy and Brandon Zylstra mixing in for the remaining wide receiver snaps, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and Justin Jackson or Craig Reynolds sharing backfield duties, and blocking specialist Brock Wright sharing tight end duties with the electric rookie James Mitchell. Concentration outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown is likely to be sporadic, at best.
As touched on above, D’Andre Swift’s injuries have left the backfield with plodder Jamaal Williams as the lead back, with Swift utilized sparingly since returning from injury in Week 8. Swift’s snap rate dipped from 55% in Week 8 to just 16% in Week 9, as the team felt they brought him along too early. It’s likely they continue to be careful with their top back in a lost season, meaning we’re likely to see another week of Jamaal Williams as the lead back, with Swift and either Craig Reynolds or Justin Jackson mixing in from there. The low per-touch upside of Williams saps most of the upside from this unit, while Swift and Reynolds or Jackson won’t be on the field enough to matter from a GPP perspective. Stranger things have happened, but the current state of this backfield does not lend itself to GPP upside. The pure rushing matchup yields a borderline elite 4.85 net-adjusted line yards metric, but with Jamaal Williams likely responsible for the bulk of the rushing workload, the matchup matters less than in other spots.
The passing game is a little easier to decipher, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond likely to be the only near every-down pass-catchers this week (assuming Reynolds misses, which appears likely as of this writing). St. Brown has seen a combined 19 targets over the previous two weeks, compared to just seven for Raymond, further constricting the likeliest dispersal of targets as St. Brown has another week removed from his ankle injury. That makes 11 consecutive fully healthy games for St. Brown with nine or more targets, dating back to Week 12 of last season. One area that should be a slight boost to the Lions offense this week is the relatively low blitz and pressure rates generated by the Bears defense this season, which should theoretically take a hit through the departures of DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith before the trade deadline. From a macro perspective, the Bears have blitzed at a league-low 14.0% clip this season and have generated pressure at a below average 20.9% clip. OWS faithful know the difference between “pressured Goff” and “kept-clean Goff,” but to reiterate things now – Goff has been one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league over the previous three seasons, with one of the worst grades when under pressure and above average grades when kept clean. All signs point to the likelihood of a cleaner pocket against the Bears this week, which bodes well for his primary pass-catcher in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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